Thomas J Espenshade
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 3620598 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Thomas J Espenshade |
| PRENOMES | Thomas J |
| SOBRENOME | Espenshade |
| ASSINATURA | ESPENSHADE T J |
| AFILIAÇÕES | Princeton University |
| VERIFICADO | Não |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 87 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 1258 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 87 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1971 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2024 |
| ÍNDICE H | 15 |
Sharing Big Video Data
Data sharing and transparency are becoming more common across the social sciences. In this article, we provide an overview of ethical, methodological, and technological considerations and challenges when developing large video-based datasets intended to be shared across researchers. We cover data security, storage, and access as well as data documentation, tagging, and transcription. Our discussions are framed by our own efforts to create a secur…
Keys to Successful Immigration
The consequences of federal immigration policy are felt most in states where migrants are concentrated. One such state is New Jersey, whose immigrant population matches the racial and ethnic composition of the U.S. population as a whole more closely than any other state's and whose immigration impacts have been relatively favorable. This book covers wage and employment impacts, state and local fiscal impacts, public opinion toward immigrants, fer…
Collecting Ethnographic Video Data for Policy Research
Despite growing recognition of the critical role of parents in children's early development, parenting education programs and interventions typically have had limited impacts on children's outcomes. To design programs and policies that are more responsive to families' needs and constraints, policymakers need a better understanding of the lived experiences of families. In this article, we argue that qualitative video-ethnographic approaches offer …
Population Dynamics
New Approaches to Human Mobility
This article explores new methods for gathering and analyzing spatially rich demographic data using mobile phones. It describes a pilot study (the Human Mobility Project) in which volunteers around the world were successfully recruited to share GPS and cellular tower information on their trajectories and respond to dynamic, location-based surveys using an open-source Android application. The pilot study illustrates the great potential of mobile p…
On Nonstable and Stable Population Momentum
This article decomposes total population momentum into two constituent and multiplicative parts: “nonstable” momentum and “stable” momentum. Nonstable momentum depends on deviations between a population’s current age distribution and its implied stable age distribution. Stable momentum is a function of deviations between a population’s implied stable and stationary age distributions. In general, the factorization of total momentum into the produc…
Population Momentum Across the Demographic Transition
Population momentum is the main driver of global population growth today, and this makes an appreciation of momentum critical to understanding contemporary worldwide growth dynamics. This article traces population momentum along with two recently defined measures of momentum decomposed-stable and nonstable momentum-across the demographic transition. We use historical data and population projections from 16 countries to illustrate some previously …
No Longer Separate, Not Yet Equal
Against the backdrop of today's increasingly multicultural society, are America's elite colleges admitting and successfully educating a diverse student body? No Longer Separate, Not Yet Equal pulls back the curtain on the selective college experience and takes a rigorous and comprehensive look at how race and social class impact each stage--from application and admission, to enrollment and student life on campus. Arguing that elite higher educati…
The Opportunity Cost of Admission Preferences at Elite Universities
Objective. This study examines how preferences for different types of applicants for admission to elite universities influence the number and composition of admitted students. Methods. Previous research with these NSCE data employed logistic regression analysis to link information on the admission decision for 124,374 applications to applicants' SAT scores, race, athletic ability, and legacy status, among other variables. Here we use micro simula…
Self-Efficacy, Stress, and Academic Success in College
The Frog Pond Revisited
In this article, the authors test a 'frog-pond' model of elite college admission proposed by Attewell, operationalizing high school academic context as the secondary school-average SAT score and number of Advanced Placement tests per high school senior. Data on more than 45,000 applications to three elite universities show that a high school's academic environment has a negative effect on college admission, controlling for individual students' sc…
Admission Preferences for Minority Students, Athletes, and Legacies at Elite Universities
Objective. This study examines how preferences for different types of applicants exercised by admission offices at elite universities influence the number and composition of admitted students. Methods. Logistic regression analysis is used to link information on the admission decision for 124,374 applications to applicants' SAT scores, race, athletic ability, and legacy status, among other variables. Results. Elite universities give added weight i…
The Surprising Global Variation in Replacement Fertility
Public Attitudes toward Immigration in the United States, France, and Germany
Book Review| January 01 2002 Public Attitudes toward Immigration in the United States, France, and Germany Public Attitudes toward Immigration in the United States, France, and Germany, Joel S. Fetzer. Thomas J. Espenshade Thomas J. Espenshade Search for other works by this author on: This Site Google Journal of American Ethnic History (2002) 21 (2): 95–97. https://doi.org/10.2307/27502817 Cite Icon Cite Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn…
Are Immigrants a Drain on the Public Fisc? State and Local Impacts in New Jersey
Objectives . To explore differences in the appointment and election method of selecting state high court justices in promoting gender diversity, and to explore the effect of existing gender diversity within the political institutions on the selection of women to office. Methods . Our data include all justices who have been selected to state courts of last resort from 1980 through 1997. We use logistic regression analysis to test the effect of exi…
Replacement Migration” from the Perspective of Equilibrium Stationary Populations
Immigrant Incorporation and Political Participation in the United States
This article examines several factors related to immigrant incorporation that have been ignored in previous studies of voting participation. We add various immigrant-related variables to a model that controls for individual resources, social incorporation, institutional barriers and contexts of political mobilization. We find little support for straight-line assimilationist theories of immigrant adaptation. We also find that coming from a repress…
Employment and earnings of foreign-born scientists and engineers
High-end immigrants and the shortage of skilled labor
Keys to Successful Immigration
Keys to Successful Immigration
Keys to Successful Immigration
Neo-Isolationism, Balanced-Budget Conservatism, and the Fiscal Impacts of Immigrants
A rise in neo-isolationism in the United States has given encouragement to a new fiscal politics of immigration. Growing anti-immigrant sentiment has coalesced with forces of fiscal conservatism to make immigrants an easy target of budget cuts. Limits on legal alien access to social welfare programs that are contained in the 1996 welfare and immigration reform acts seem motivated not so much by a guiding philosophy of what it means to be a member…
Neo-Isolationism, Balanced-Budget Conservatism, and the Fiscal Impacts of Immigrants
Gregory A. Huber, Thomas J. Espenshade, Neo-Isolationism, Balanced-Budget Conservatism, and the Fiscal Impacts of Immigrants, The International Migration Review, Vol. 31, No. 4, Special Issue: Immigrant Adaptation and Native-Born Responses in the Making of Americans (Winter, 1997), pp. 1031-1054
An Analysis of English-Language Proficiency among U.S. Immigrants
We examine factors that influence the process by which foreign-born persons whose mother tongue is not English acquire English-language proficiency. We argue that the determinants of English-language proficiency include cultural and other traits that U.S. immigrants acquire either at birth or while growing up in their home countries the human capital and other endowments they possess at the time they migrate to the United States and the skills an…
Contemporary American Attitudes toward U.S. Immigration
This article aims to contribute to an understanding of contemporary American attitudes toward immigration.... The paper uses data from a CBS News/New York Times poll conducted in June 1993. Respondents were asked whether they would like to see the level of immigration to the United States increased, decreased or kept the same. We test several hypotheses about factors influencing respondents' attitudes, including the importance of previously unexa…
Immigrant Incorporation and Political Participation in the United States
This article examines several factors related to immigrant incorporation that have been ignored in previous studies of voting participation. We add various immigrant-related variables to a model that controls for individual resources, social incorporation, institutional barriers and contexts of political mobilization. We find little support for straight-line assimilationist theories of immigrant adaptation. We also find that coming from a repress…
An Analysis of English-Language Proficiency among U.S. Immigrants
We examine factors that influence the process by which foreign-born persons whose mother tongue is not English acquire English-language proficiency. We argue that the determinants of English-language proficiency include cultural and other traits that U.S. immigrants acquire either at birth or while growing up in their home countries the human capital and other endowments they possess at the time they migrate to the United States and the skills an…
An analysis of public opinion toward undocumented immigration
Unauthorized Immigration to the United States
This paper surveys research on the size of the undocumented immigrant population in the United States, the causes and consequences of illegal migrant flows, public attitudes toward unauthorized migrants, and the history of attempts to control the volume of undocumented migration. It concludes that there are powerful push and pull factors that create and sustain the volume of unauthorized migration, that there is little evidence that undocumented …
Self-Efficacy, Stress, and Academic Success in College
Marriage Trends in America
This paper examines trends in marriage divorce and remarriage behavior in the United States since World War II and the associated differentials in these behaviors for whites and blacks. The evidence points to the fading centrality of marriage in the lives of men and women since about 1960. Implications of these trends are discussed for illegitimacy living arrangements of children and family economic welfare. The paper also reviews four social sci…
New Approaches to Human Mobility
This article explores new methods for gathering and analyzing spatially rich demographic data using mobile phones. It describes a pilot study (the Human Mobility Project) in which volunteers around the world were successfully recruited to share GPS and cellular tower information on their trajectories and respond to dynamic, location-based surveys using an open-source Android application. The pilot study illustrates the great potential of mobile p…
Immigration and the Stable Population Model
This paper reports on work aimed at extending stable population theory to include immigration. Its central finding is that, as long as fertility is below replacement, a constant number and age distribution of immigrants (with fixed fertility and mortality schedules) lead to a stationary population. Neither the level of the net reproduction rate nor the size of the annual immigration affects this conclusion; a stationary population eventually emer…
The Economic Consequences of Divorce
In order to evaluate properly rising incidence of divorce in United States we need to know its consequences for families and society at large. This paper focuses on questions: (1) what does divorce mean in way of economic hardship for family members; (2) how is burden distributed among husbands, wives, and children; and (3) why does economic well-being of divorced wives typically fall short of that of former husbands? The analysis is based mainly…
The Frog Pond Revisited
In this article, the authors test a 'frog-pond' model of elite college admission proposed by Attewell, operationalizing high school academic context as the secondary school-average SAT score and number of Advanced Placement tests per high school senior. Data on more than 45,000 applications to three elite universities show that a high school's academic environment has a negative effect on college admission, controlling for individual students' sc…
Admission Preferences for Minority Students, Athletes, and Legacies at Elite Universities
Objective. This study examines how preferences for different types of applicants exercised by admission offices at elite universities influence the number and composition of admitted students. Methods. Logistic regression analysis is used to link information on the admission decision for 124,374 applications to applicants' SAT scores, race, athletic ability, and legacy status, among other variables. Results. Elite universities give added weight i…
Does the Threat of Border Apprehension Deter Undocumented US Immigration
The study explores whether U.S. Border Patrol enforcement actively discourages undocumented migration at its source. Two models are compared. One includes such familiar determinants of undocumented migration as relative economic conditions between the United States and Mexico the size of the Mexican young-adult population and implementation of the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act. An alternative model relates the magnitude of undocumented …
The U.S. 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act and undocumented migration to the United States
Implications of the 1996 Welfare and Immigration Reform Acts for US Immigration
The authors assess the impact of the U.S. welfare and immigration reforms enacted in 1996. They suggest that these reforms will produce unintended and possibly undesirable consequences. They argue in particular that the 1996 reform measures instead of preserving legal immigration and discouraging illegal immigration are more likely to reduce the former and expand incentives for the latter. In addition the Personal Responsibility Act creates added…
The Surprising Global Variation in Replacement Fertility
Can Immigration Slow U.S. Population Aging
While much attention is properly directed to ways of coping with population aging it is also reasonable to ask whether U.S. immigration policy can reverse or at least slow anticipated aging trends. This article suggests that realistic prospects are tightly circumscribed. It argues that further aging of the U.S. population is a long-run inevitability whenever the public places a high value on long life....We suggest that policy interventions to ra…
The Opportunity Cost of Admission Preferences at Elite Universities
Objective. This study examines how preferences for different types of applicants for admission to elite universities influence the number and composition of admitted students. Methods. Previous research with these NSCE data employed logistic regression analysis to link information on the admission decision for 124,374 applications to applicants' SAT scores, race, athletic ability, and legacy status, among other variables. Here we use micro simula…
Childbearing and Wives' Foregone Earnings
This paper combines multi-state life-table analysis and the human capital model of wages to derive new estimates of the impact of children on hours of market work and earnings for American women aged 15 to 55. Panel data from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Labor Market Experience are used to estimate multi-state tables of working life and to assess the impact of fertility on female labour force behaviour. Potential earnings based on a human…
Life Course Analysis and Multistate Demography
Thomas J. Espenshade, Rachel Eisenberg Braun, Life Course Analysis and Multistate Demography: An Application to Marriage, Divorce, and Remarriage, Journal of Marriage and Family, Vol. 44, No. 4, Methodology: The Other Side of Caring (Nov., 1982), pp. 1025-1036
Replacement Migration” from the Perspective of Equilibrium Stationary Populations
Neo-Isolationism, Balanced-Budget Conservatism, and the Fiscal Impacts of Immigrants
A rise in neo-isolationism in the United States has given encouragement to a new fiscal politics of immigration. Growing anti-immigrant sentiment has coalesced with forces of fiscal conservatism to make immigrants an easy target of budget cuts. Limits on legal alien access to social welfare programs that are contained in the 1996 welfare and immigration reform acts seem motivated not so much by a guiding philosophy of what it means to be a member…
Population Dynamics with Immigration and Low Fertility
Thomas J. Espenshade, Population Dynamics with Immigration and Low Fertility, Population and Development Review, Vol. 12, Supplement: Below-Replacement Fertility in Industrial Societies: Causes, Consequences, Policies (1986), pp. 248-261
Population Momentum Across the Demographic Transition
Population momentum is the main driver of global population growth today, and this makes an appreciation of momentum critical to understanding contemporary worldwide growth dynamics. This article traces population momentum along with two recently defined measures of momentum decomposed-stable and nonstable momentum-across the demographic transition. We use historical data and population projections from 16 countries to illustrate some previously …
Neo-Isolationism, Balanced-Budget Conservatism, and the Fiscal Impacts of Immigrants
Gregory A. Huber, Thomas J. Espenshade, Neo-Isolationism, Balanced-Budget Conservatism, and the Fiscal Impacts of Immigrants, The International Migration Review, Vol. 31, No. 4, Special Issue: Immigrant Adaptation and Native-Born Responses in the Making of Americans (Winter, 1997), pp. 1031-1054
A new method for estimating the level of natural fertility in populations practicing birth control
The natural fertility schedule of a population is the schedule of age-specific marital fertility we would observe if no birth control were being practiced. In natural fertility (no birth control) populations we can observe the natural fertility schedule directly, but in populations practicing birth control the natural fertility schedule is disguised by the marital fertility rates in those age intervals in which control is exercised, the marital f…
The price of children and socio-economic theories of fertility
Demographers have for some time suggested that the cost of children has an important bearing on couples' fertility decisions. Dublin and Lotka, for example, voiced the opinion that 'it is undoubtedly the anticipation of greatly increased expenditures, the sudden demands made on the family exchequer when a child is born and for some time after, that causes people of limited income to restrict the size of their families'. Banks, Myrdal, and Day and…
Comment on George Zito’s “A note on the population of seventeenth century London”
Estimating the cost of children and some results from urban United States
The impact of children on household saving
This paper extends a recent article by Allen Kelley, 'Population Growth, the Dependency Rate, and the Pace of Economic Development', published in Population Studies, 27, 3. Its objectives are threefold: (1) to point out that Kelley's earlier assessment of the effect of family size on household savings rates turns on somewhat arbitrary methods of computation and is altered when more conventional procedures are used, (2) to argue that in modern Ame…
Compensating changes in fertility and mortality
This paper illustrates a method of studying changes in vital rate schedules which have no effect on the intrinsic rate of population growth. These changes are described as compensating changes in fertility and mortality. The analysis proceeds from the discrete perspective of Leslie matrices, wherein the central idea is to establish the set of all compensating changes by identifying that class of Leslie matrices which possess the same positive eig…
The stable equivalent population, age composition, and Fisher’s reproductive value function
This paper deals with a further analysis of the stable equivalent population for human populations. It first shows that the arithmetic difference between the size of the stable equivalent population and the actual population captures the total prospective contribution of age composition to the growth of the present population, if fertility and mortality rates are held constant at their current levels. The second part of the paper examines Fisher’…
The Value and Cost of Children
Recent research on actual and perceived benefits and costs of children to their parents in both developed and less developed countries is summarized. Such figures and research cannot only help predict fertility behavior but can also provide data for welfare departments figuring support costs, courts setting support costs, and government planners allocating resources. Findings on costs and satisfactions from several major surveys are presented and…
How a trend towards a stationary population affects consumer demand
During the great depression of the 1930seconomists in both the United States and Europe tried to analyse the economic consequences of declining rates of population growth. Not only were birth rates in many industrial countries at the lowest levels ever, but they coincided with high rates of unemployment. Of the many economists who held that demographic trends were partly responsible for the adverse economic conditions, a prominent example was Joh…
Zero Population Growth and the Economies of Developed Nations
This paper focused on the effects of zero population growth (ZPG) on the economies of developed nations. Future courses of fertility life expectancy immigration and other demographic variables were analyzed based on three alternative population projections by the U.S. Census Bureau (1977). Analysis concluded that demographic factors affect labor; consumption savings and investment; social security and pension; education; government programs and s…
The Economic Consequences of Slowing Population Growth
The Economic Consequences of Divorce
In order to evaluate properly rising incidence of divorce in United States we need to know its consequences for families and society at large. This paper focuses on questions: (1) what does divorce mean in way of economic hardship for family members; (2) how is burden distributed among husbands, wives, and children; and (3) why does economic well-being of divorced wives typically fall short of that of former husbands? The analysis is based mainly…
The Economic Consequences of Slowing Population Growth
Immigration and the Stable Population Model
This paper reports on work aimed at extending stable population theory to include immigration. Its central finding is that, as long as fertility is below replacement, a constant number and age distribution of immigrants (with fixed fertility and mortality schedules) lead to a stationary population. Neither the level of the net reproduction rate nor the size of the annual immigration affects this conclusion; a stationary population eventually emer…
Confidence Intervals for Postcensal State Population Estimates
This paper develops a methodology for constructing confidence intervals around postcensal state population estimates. Using regression equations, forecast intervals are derived around the average age-specific death rates over the postcensal estimation period. These results, combined with the number of postcensal deaths and the most current census counts, are translated into confidence intervals for the age structure. Two approaches are offered fo…
Life Course Analysis and Multistate Demography
Thomas J. Espenshade, Rachel Eisenberg Braun, Life Course Analysis and Multistate Demography: An Application to Marriage, Divorce, and Remarriage, Journal of Marriage and Family, Vol. 44, No. 4, Methodology: The Other Side of Caring (Nov., 1982), pp. 1025-1036
Marriage, Divorce, and Remarriage from Retrospective Data
In this paper the author applies the framework of multiregional population analysis to marital status changes as revealed by longitudinal retrospective data on marital histories collected as part of the June 1975 Current Population Survey supplement. Four marital statuses are used: never married, presently married, divorced, and widowed. Marital status life tables are computed for three periods: 1960-1965, 1965-1970, and 1970-1975, and, for each …
Comment on Mitra’s generalization
In a recent article in this journal, Mitra (1983) extended work by Espenshade, et al. (1982) who examined long-run implications for population size and composition if below-replacement fertility rates remain fixed in face of a constant influx of immigrants. By differentiating fundamental renewal equation for annual births, Mitra developed a unified framework for studying existence of long-term equilibrium solutions when constant annual immigratio…
Investing in Children
The first full-length study comparing expenditures on raising children by parental income, education, mother's employment status, family size, region where the family lives, race, and the type of post secondary education a child receives. Valuable information for parenthood education programs in schools and indispensable to the judicial system in setting uniform guidelines for child support awards. Also valuable to states in drawing guidelines fo…
Investing in Children
Marriage Trends in America
This paper examines trends in marriage divorce and remarriage behavior in the United States since World War II and the associated differentials in these behaviors for whites and blacks. The evidence points to the fading centrality of marriage in the lives of men and women since about 1960. Implications of these trends are discussed for illegitimacy living arrangements of children and family economic welfare. The paper also reviews four social sci…
The dollars and cents of parenthood
The Dollars and Cents of Parenthood
The Baby Boom
This is an annotated bibliography concerning the baby boom generation defined here as those born between 1946 and 1965 in the United States. It includes over 700 citations organized in eight subject chapters one of which is concerned with articles on demography. (ANNOTATION)
Population Dynamics with Immigration and Low Fertility
Thomas J. Espenshade, Population Dynamics with Immigration and Low Fertility, Population and Development Review, Vol. 12, Supplement: Below-Replacement Fertility in Industrial Societies: Causes, Consequences, Policies (1986), pp. 248-261
Economics (53 obras) · Sociology (50 obras) · Political science (48 obras) · Demography (36 obras) · Immigration (35 obras) · Population (35 obras) · Demographic economics (33 obras) · Law (31 obras) · Migration and Labor Dynamics (30 obras) · Geography (24 obras)