Douglas Rivers
Biographic Data
| ID | 3626761 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Douglas Rivers |
| GIVEN NAMES | Douglas |
| FAMILY NAME | Rivers |
| SIGNATURE | RIVERS D |
| AFFILIATIONS | Stanford University |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 17 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 1,320 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 17 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1984 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2018 |
| H-INDEX | 14 |
An Evaluation of the 2016 Election Polls in the United States
The 2016 presidential election was a jarring event for polling in the United States. Preelection polls fueled high-profile predictions that Hillary Clinton’s likelihood of winning the presidency was about 90 percent, with estimates ranging from 71 to over 99 percent. When Donald Trump was declared the winner of the presidency, there was a widespread perception that the polls failed. But did the polls fail? And if so, why? Those are among the cent…
The Mythical Swing Voter
Most surveys conducted during the 2012 U.S. presidential campaign showed large swings in support for the Democratic and Republican candidates, especially before and after the first presidential debate. Using a combination of traditional cross-sectional surveys, a unique panel survey (in terms of scale, frequency, and source), and a high response rate panel, we find that daily sample composition varied more in response to campaign events than did …
Cooperative Survey Research
The rise of the Internet has radically altered survey research by changing how we think about sampling, driving down the cost of interviewing, and creating new ways of asking questions. This technology has also opened the way to a new style of cooperatively organized survey research. Projects such as the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) and the Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project (CCAP) involve collaborations of dozens of researc…
The 2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Study
In 2006 Polimetrix, Inc. of Palo Alto, CA. fielded the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, the largest study of Congressional elections ever fielded in the US. The project was a joint venture of 38 universities and over 100 political scientists. In this paper, we detail the design and execution of the project, with special attention to the method by which the sample was generated. We show that the estimates from the Common Content of CCES o…
Institutions in International Relations
The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) have been touted as premier examples of international institutions, but few studies have offered empirical proof. This article comprehensively evaluates the effects of the GATT/WTO and other trade agreements since World War II. Our analysis is organized around two factors: institutional standing and institutional embeddedness. We show that many countries had …
The Statistical Analysis of Roll Call Data
We develop a Bayesian procedure for estimation and inference for spatial models of roll call voting. This approach is extremely flexible, applicable to any legislative setting, irrespective of size, the extremism of the legislators' voting histories, or the number of roll calls available for analysis. The model is easily extended to let other sources of information inform the analysis of roll call data, such as the number and nature of the underl…
The Roots of Careerism in the U. S. House of Representatives
Party Identification, Retrospective Voting, and Moderating Elections in a Federal System
The hypotheses of retrospective voting and moderating elections rationalize some empirical regularities in U.S. presidential and congressional elections that posed a challenge for the party identification hypothesis. Here, these hypotheses are applied to the German federal system that is characterized by staggered national and Land (provincial) elections. They are tested using data on real GNP growth at the national and Land levels, party vote sh…
The perils of presidential support
Sophisticated Voting in Congress
A recent development in the theory of voting is the possibility that agendas over which legislators may engage in sophisticated voting can place legislators in awkward situations. Consequently, some legislators may choose not to vote sophisticatedly. Roll-call votes on the school construction bill of 1956 are cited as support for this "position-taking" hypothesis (Denzau, Riker, and Shepsle 1985). This article questions the relevance of classical…
Strategy and choice in the 1988 presidential primaries
Selection Bias in Linear Regression, Logit and Probit Models
Missing data are common in observational studies due to self-selection of subjects. Missing data can bias estimates of linear regression and related models. The nature of selection bias and econometric methods for correcting it are described. The econometric approach relies upon a specification of the selection mechanism. We extend this approach to binary logit and probit models and provide a simple test for selection bias in these models. An ana…
Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models
The Analysis of Committee Power
The disproportionate influence of standing committees on congressional outcomes is an often-noted empirical regularity in American politics, and a large body of theoretical and empirical research has sought to identify the determinants of "committee influence," "committee power," or "deference to committees." This paper does not attempt to resolve issues of when and why committee power \nexists. Rather, it focuses on a prerequisite to the resolut…
Heterogeneity in Models of Electoral Choice
Heterogeneity or the presence of a variety of decision rules in a population has usually been ignored in voting research. A method for handling heterogeneous preferences using rank-order data is developed and applied to a simple issue-voting model. The estimated average effect of partisanship is substantially higher when the assumption of homogeneity is relaxed, though many self-identified partisans also use ideological criteria to evaluate candi…
Passing the President's Program
Correlations between legislative support scores and presidential popularity do not accurately reflect the relationship between public opinion and presidential influence in Congress. Presidents make strategic choices to expend their public prestige to obtain congressional approval of programmatic initiatives. Previous studies have ignored such choices as well as other features of the strategic environment which tend to lower the apparent legislati…
A retrospective on retrospective voting
The Statistical Analysis of Roll Call Data
We develop a Bayesian procedure for estimation and inference for spatial models of roll call voting. This approach is extremely flexible, applicable to any legislative setting, irrespective of size, the extremism of the legislators' voting histories, or the number of roll calls available for analysis. The model is easily extended to let other sources of information inform the analysis of roll call data, such as the number and nature of the underl…
Passing the President's Program
Correlations between legislative support scores and presidential popularity do not accurately reflect the relationship between public opinion and presidential influence in Congress. Presidents make strategic choices to expend their public prestige to obtain congressional approval of programmatic initiatives. Previous studies have ignored such choices as well as other features of the strategic environment which tend to lower the apparent legislati…
Cooperative Survey Research
The rise of the Internet has radically altered survey research by changing how we think about sampling, driving down the cost of interviewing, and creating new ways of asking questions. This technology has also opened the way to a new style of cooperatively organized survey research. Projects such as the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) and the Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project (CCAP) involve collaborations of dozens of researc…
Institutions in International Relations
The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) have been touted as premier examples of international institutions, but few studies have offered empirical proof. This article comprehensively evaluates the effects of the GATT/WTO and other trade agreements since World War II. Our analysis is organized around two factors: institutional standing and institutional embeddedness. We show that many countries had …
A retrospective on retrospective voting
Heterogeneity in Models of Electoral Choice
Heterogeneity or the presence of a variety of decision rules in a population has usually been ignored in voting research. A method for handling heterogeneous preferences using rank-order data is developed and applied to a simple issue-voting model. The estimated average effect of partisanship is substantially higher when the assumption of homogeneity is relaxed, though many self-identified partisans also use ideological criteria to evaluate candi…
An Evaluation of the 2016 Election Polls in the United States
The 2016 presidential election was a jarring event for polling in the United States. Preelection polls fueled high-profile predictions that Hillary Clinton’s likelihood of winning the presidency was about 90 percent, with estimates ranging from 71 to over 99 percent. When Donald Trump was declared the winner of the presidency, there was a widespread perception that the polls failed. But did the polls fail? And if so, why? Those are among the cent…
Selection Bias in Linear Regression, Logit and Probit Models
Missing data are common in observational studies due to self-selection of subjects. Missing data can bias estimates of linear regression and related models. The nature of selection bias and econometric methods for correcting it are described. The econometric approach relies upon a specification of the selection mechanism. We extend this approach to binary logit and probit models and provide a simple test for selection bias in these models. An ana…
The Analysis of Committee Power
The disproportionate influence of standing committees on congressional outcomes is an often-noted empirical regularity in American politics, and a large body of theoretical and empirical research has sought to identify the determinants of "committee influence," "committee power," or "deference to committees." This paper does not attempt to resolve issues of when and why committee power \nexists. Rather, it focuses on a prerequisite to the resolut…
The Mythical Swing Voter
Most surveys conducted during the 2012 U.S. presidential campaign showed large swings in support for the Democratic and Republican candidates, especially before and after the first presidential debate. Using a combination of traditional cross-sectional surveys, a unique panel survey (in terms of scale, frequency, and source), and a high response rate panel, we find that daily sample composition varied more in response to campaign events than did …
Party Identification, Retrospective Voting, and Moderating Elections in a Federal System
The hypotheses of retrospective voting and moderating elections rationalize some empirical regularities in U.S. presidential and congressional elections that posed a challenge for the party identification hypothesis. Here, these hypotheses are applied to the German federal system that is characterized by staggered national and Land (provincial) elections. They are tested using data on real GNP growth at the national and Land levels, party vote sh…
The perils of presidential support
Sophisticated Voting in Congress
A recent development in the theory of voting is the possibility that agendas over which legislators may engage in sophisticated voting can place legislators in awkward situations. Consequently, some legislators may choose not to vote sophisticatedly. Roll-call votes on the school construction bill of 1956 are cited as support for this "position-taking" hypothesis (Denzau, Riker, and Shepsle 1985). This article questions the relevance of classical…
The Roots of Careerism in the U. S. House of Representatives
Strategy and choice in the 1988 presidential primaries
A retrospective on retrospective voting
Passing the President's Program
Correlations between legislative support scores and presidential popularity do not accurately reflect the relationship between public opinion and presidential influence in Congress. Presidents make strategic choices to expend their public prestige to obtain congressional approval of programmatic initiatives. Previous studies have ignored such choices as well as other features of the strategic environment which tend to lower the apparent legislati…
Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models
The Analysis of Committee Power
The disproportionate influence of standing committees on congressional outcomes is an often-noted empirical regularity in American politics, and a large body of theoretical and empirical research has sought to identify the determinants of "committee influence," "committee power," or "deference to committees." This paper does not attempt to resolve issues of when and why committee power \nexists. Rather, it focuses on a prerequisite to the resolut…
Heterogeneity in Models of Electoral Choice
Heterogeneity or the presence of a variety of decision rules in a population has usually been ignored in voting research. A method for handling heterogeneous preferences using rank-order data is developed and applied to a simple issue-voting model. The estimated average effect of partisanship is substantially higher when the assumption of homogeneity is relaxed, though many self-identified partisans also use ideological criteria to evaluate candi…
Strategy and choice in the 1988 presidential primaries
Selection Bias in Linear Regression, Logit and Probit Models
Missing data are common in observational studies due to self-selection of subjects. Missing data can bias estimates of linear regression and related models. The nature of selection bias and econometric methods for correcting it are described. The econometric approach relies upon a specification of the selection mechanism. We extend this approach to binary logit and probit models and provide a simple test for selection bias in these models. An ana…
Sophisticated Voting in Congress
A recent development in the theory of voting is the possibility that agendas over which legislators may engage in sophisticated voting can place legislators in awkward situations. Consequently, some legislators may choose not to vote sophisticatedly. Roll-call votes on the school construction bill of 1956 are cited as support for this "position-taking" hypothesis (Denzau, Riker, and Shepsle 1985). This article questions the relevance of classical…
The perils of presidential support
Party Identification, Retrospective Voting, and Moderating Elections in a Federal System
The hypotheses of retrospective voting and moderating elections rationalize some empirical regularities in U.S. presidential and congressional elections that posed a challenge for the party identification hypothesis. Here, these hypotheses are applied to the German federal system that is characterized by staggered national and Land (provincial) elections. They are tested using data on real GNP growth at the national and Land levels, party vote sh…
The Roots of Careerism in the U. S. House of Representatives
The Statistical Analysis of Roll Call Data
We develop a Bayesian procedure for estimation and inference for spatial models of roll call voting. This approach is extremely flexible, applicable to any legislative setting, irrespective of size, the extremism of the legislators' voting histories, or the number of roll calls available for analysis. The model is easily extended to let other sources of information inform the analysis of roll call data, such as the number and nature of the underl…
Institutions in International Relations
The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) have been touted as premier examples of international institutions, but few studies have offered empirical proof. This article comprehensively evaluates the effects of the GATT/WTO and other trade agreements since World War II. Our analysis is organized around two factors: institutional standing and institutional embeddedness. We show that many countries had …
The 2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Study
In 2006 Polimetrix, Inc. of Palo Alto, CA. fielded the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, the largest study of Congressional elections ever fielded in the US. The project was a joint venture of 38 universities and over 100 political scientists. In this paper, we detail the design and execution of the project, with special attention to the method by which the sample was generated. We show that the estimates from the Common Content of CCES o…
Cooperative Survey Research
The rise of the Internet has radically altered survey research by changing how we think about sampling, driving down the cost of interviewing, and creating new ways of asking questions. This technology has also opened the way to a new style of cooperatively organized survey research. Projects such as the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) and the Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project (CCAP) involve collaborations of dozens of researc…
The Mythical Swing Voter
Most surveys conducted during the 2012 U.S. presidential campaign showed large swings in support for the Democratic and Republican candidates, especially before and after the first presidential debate. Using a combination of traditional cross-sectional surveys, a unique panel survey (in terms of scale, frequency, and source), and a high response rate panel, we find that daily sample composition varied more in response to campaign events than did …
An Evaluation of the 2016 Election Polls in the United States
The 2016 presidential election was a jarring event for polling in the United States. Preelection polls fueled high-profile predictions that Hillary Clinton’s likelihood of winning the presidency was about 90 percent, with estimates ranging from 71 to over 99 percent. When Donald Trump was declared the winner of the presidency, there was a widespread perception that the polls failed. But did the polls fail? And if so, why? Those are among the cent…
Political science (15 works) · Law (14 works) · Law (14 works) · Politics (14 works) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (13 works) · Economics (12 works) · Computer Science (9 works) · Statistics (9 works) · Mathematics (7 works) · Presidential system (7 works)