Brian Greenhill
Biographic Data
| ID | 3629264 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Brian Greenhill |
| GIVEN NAMES | Brian |
| FAMILY NAME | Greenhill |
| SIGNATURE | GREENHILL B |
| AFFILIATIONS | University at Albany, State University of New York |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-8281-028X |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 16 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 506 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 16 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2008 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2024 |
| H-INDEX | 7 |
Manipulating Public Beliefs about Alliance Compliance: A Survey Experiment
Conventional wisdom on alliances proposes that leaders comply with alliances because the public opposes violating alliance commitments. However, this assumes that the public can easily judge whether or not a particular policy violates an alliance treaty. This article challenges this assumption and develops a theory that elites have the opportunity to shape public understanding as to whether an action violates an alliance treaty. It shows that whi…
States as Role Models: Why Some Countries’ Policies Matter More than Others
We often look to the examples set by other countries when thinking about how to deal with problems at home. But what explains why some countries are more likely to serve as role models than others? Are people influenced mainly by the examples set by countries that are considered to be particularly successful in a given policy area? Or are they influenced to a greater extent by countries that are more familiar to them, or that appear more similar …
Naming and shaming, government messaging, and backlash effects: Experimental evidence from the Convention Against Torture
Conventional thinking proposes that naming and shaming pushes publics to oppose government policies that are claimed to violate human rights. We explore the extent to which international organizations’ (IOs’) efforts to name and shame target governments can be frustrated by the target governments’ efforts to advance a counter-narrative. We test this using a survey-based experiment that focuses on the use of prolonged solitary confinement in US pr…
How can international organizations shape public opinion? analysis of a pair of survey-based experiments
The Demographic Transition Theory of War: Why Young Societies Are Conflict Prone and Old Societies Are the Most Peaceful
The world is experiencing a period of unprecedented demographic change. For the first time in human history, marked disparities in age structures exist across the globe. Around 40 percent of the world's population lives in countries with significant numbers of elderly citizens. In contrast, the majority of the world's people live in developing countries with very large numbers of young people as a proportion of the total population. Yet, demograp…
Exploring the Adaptation-mitigation Relationship: Does Information on the Costs of Adapting to Climate Change Influence Support for Mitigation
Can information about adaptation costs influence citizens’ willingness to support climate change mitigation? Some scholars are concerned that policy discussions on adaptation might present climate change as a more manageable problem, and therefore crowd out mitigation efforts. On the other hand, providing information on adaptation costs may sensitize citizens to these costs, thereby increasing their willingness to support mitigation. To assess th…
Clubs of Clubs: Fragmentation in the Network of Intergovernmental Organizations
Has international cooperation become fragmented in recent decades? We focus on a specific form of potential fragmentation in the international system: the extent to which the network of intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) consists of distinct clusters of closely cooperating states. IR scholars—including those with an interest in the causes and consequences of membership in IGOs—pay relatively little attention to the structure of the larger IGO…
The networked peace: Intergovernmental organizations and international conflict
Existing work has shown that membership in intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) can, among other outcomes, reduce conflict, promote democratization, and shape crisis bargaining. The traditional approach to studying how IGOs can reduce conflict has focused on the effects of dyads' direct ties to IGOs. In doing so, these analyses use fairly simple counts of the number of IGOs to which the states in each dyad share membership. We argue that this a…
Transmitting Rights: International Organizations and the Diffusion of Human Rights Practices
Full replication archive for my book "Transmitting Rights."
Explaining Nonratification of the Genocide Convention: A Nested Analysis
What explains the large variation in the time taken by states to ratify the 1948 Genocide Convention? The costs of ratification would appear to be relatively low, yet many states have waited several decades before ratifying this symbolically important treaty. This study employs a “nested analysis” that combines a large-n event history analysis with a detailed study of an important outlying case in order to explain the main sources of this variati…
Where Is the Tipping Point? Bilateral Trade and the Diffusion of Human Rights
Drawing on a panel of 136 countries over the period 1982–2004, we study a tipping point version of Vogel's ‘California Effect’ in the context of the diffusion of human rights practices. Because human rights practices are often deeply embedded in a society's customs and political institutions, we expect that a high level of pressure from the importing countries is needed to bring about changes in an exporting country's human rights records. We fin…
The Separation Plot: A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Fit of Binary Models
We present a visual method for assessing the predictive power of models with binary outcomes. This technique allows the analyst to evaluate model fit based upon the models’ ability to consistently match high‐probability predictions to actual occurrences of the event of interest, and low‐probability predictions to nonoccurrences of the event of interest. Unlike existing methods for assessing predictive power for logit and probit models such as Per…
The Company You Keep: International Socialization and the Diffusion of Human Rights Norms
Does membership in Intergovernmental Organizations (IGOs) affect states' human rights behavior? One might expect IGOs with a specific human rights mandate, like the International Labour Organization or the Council of Europe, to have a positive effect on the human rights practices of their member states. But what about other sorts of IGOs, particularly those with no direct connection to human rights issues? This study employs cross-national data o…
The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts
Large-n studies of conflict have produced a large number of statistically significant results but little accurate guidance in terms of anticipating the onset of conflict. The authors argue that too much attention has been paid to finding statistically significant relationships, while too little attention has been paid to finding variables that improve our ability to predict civil wars. The result can be a distorted view of what matters most to th…
Trade-based Diffusion of Labor Rights: A Panel Study, 1986-2002
This article investigates the nature of the linkages between trade and labor rights in developing countries. Specifically, we hypothesize that a "California effect" serves to transmit superior labor standards from importing to exporting countries, in a manner similar to the transmission of environmental standards. We maintain that, all else being equal, the labor standards of a given country are influenced not by its overall level of trade openne…
Recognition and Collective Identity Formation in International Politics
Applying the model of `recognition politics' to international relations can help to explain the identity-based elements of international conflicts that rationalist models leave out. This article uses psychological theories of identity formation to critically assess the recent move by constructivist scholars (most notably Alexander Wendt) to bring the Hegelian idea of the `struggle for recognition' into the study of IR. Examining recognition theor…
The Company You Keep: International Socialization and the Diffusion of Human Rights Norms
Does membership in Intergovernmental Organizations (IGOs) affect states' human rights behavior? One might expect IGOs with a specific human rights mandate, like the International Labour Organization or the Council of Europe, to have a positive effect on the human rights practices of their member states. But what about other sorts of IGOs, particularly those with no direct connection to human rights issues? This study employs cross-national data o…
Trade-based Diffusion of Labor Rights: A Panel Study, 1986-2002
This article investigates the nature of the linkages between trade and labor rights in developing countries. Specifically, we hypothesize that a "California effect" serves to transmit superior labor standards from importing to exporting countries, in a manner similar to the transmission of environmental standards. We maintain that, all else being equal, the labor standards of a given country are influenced not by its overall level of trade openne…
The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts
Large-n studies of conflict have produced a large number of statistically significant results but little accurate guidance in terms of anticipating the onset of conflict. The authors argue that too much attention has been paid to finding statistically significant relationships, while too little attention has been paid to finding variables that improve our ability to predict civil wars. The result can be a distorted view of what matters most to th…
The Separation Plot: A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Fit of Binary Models
We present a visual method for assessing the predictive power of models with binary outcomes. This technique allows the analyst to evaluate model fit based upon the models’ ability to consistently match high‐probability predictions to actual occurrences of the event of interest, and low‐probability predictions to nonoccurrences of the event of interest. Unlike existing methods for assessing predictive power for logit and probit models such as Per…
Clubs of Clubs: Fragmentation in the Network of Intergovernmental Organizations
Has international cooperation become fragmented in recent decades? We focus on a specific form of potential fragmentation in the international system: the extent to which the network of intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) consists of distinct clusters of closely cooperating states. IR scholars—including those with an interest in the causes and consequences of membership in IGOs—pay relatively little attention to the structure of the larger IGO…
Where Is the Tipping Point? Bilateral Trade and the Diffusion of Human Rights
Drawing on a panel of 136 countries over the period 1982–2004, we study a tipping point version of Vogel's ‘California Effect’ in the context of the diffusion of human rights practices. Because human rights practices are often deeply embedded in a society's customs and political institutions, we expect that a high level of pressure from the importing countries is needed to bring about changes in an exporting country's human rights records. We fin…
Recognition and Collective Identity Formation in International Politics
Applying the model of `recognition politics' to international relations can help to explain the identity-based elements of international conflicts that rationalist models leave out. This article uses psychological theories of identity formation to critically assess the recent move by constructivist scholars (most notably Alexander Wendt) to bring the Hegelian idea of the `struggle for recognition' into the study of IR. Examining recognition theor…
Naming and shaming, government messaging, and backlash effects: Experimental evidence from the Convention Against Torture
Conventional thinking proposes that naming and shaming pushes publics to oppose government policies that are claimed to violate human rights. We explore the extent to which international organizations’ (IOs’) efforts to name and shame target governments can be frustrated by the target governments’ efforts to advance a counter-narrative. We test this using a survey-based experiment that focuses on the use of prolonged solitary confinement in US pr…
The networked peace: Intergovernmental organizations and international conflict
Existing work has shown that membership in intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) can, among other outcomes, reduce conflict, promote democratization, and shape crisis bargaining. The traditional approach to studying how IGOs can reduce conflict has focused on the effects of dyads' direct ties to IGOs. In doing so, these analyses use fairly simple counts of the number of IGOs to which the states in each dyad share membership. We argue that this a…
Manipulating Public Beliefs about Alliance Compliance: A Survey Experiment
Conventional wisdom on alliances proposes that leaders comply with alliances because the public opposes violating alliance commitments. However, this assumes that the public can easily judge whether or not a particular policy violates an alliance treaty. This article challenges this assumption and develops a theory that elites have the opportunity to shape public understanding as to whether an action violates an alliance treaty. It shows that whi…
The Demographic Transition Theory of War: Why Young Societies Are Conflict Prone and Old Societies Are the Most Peaceful
The world is experiencing a period of unprecedented demographic change. For the first time in human history, marked disparities in age structures exist across the globe. Around 40 percent of the world's population lives in countries with significant numbers of elderly citizens. In contrast, the majority of the world's people live in developing countries with very large numbers of young people as a proportion of the total population. Yet, demograp…
Explaining Nonratification of the Genocide Convention: A Nested Analysis
What explains the large variation in the time taken by states to ratify the 1948 Genocide Convention? The costs of ratification would appear to be relatively low, yet many states have waited several decades before ratifying this symbolically important treaty. This study employs a “nested analysis” that combines a large-n event history analysis with a detailed study of an important outlying case in order to explain the main sources of this variati…
Recognition and Collective Identity Formation in International Politics
Applying the model of `recognition politics' to international relations can help to explain the identity-based elements of international conflicts that rationalist models leave out. This article uses psychological theories of identity formation to critically assess the recent move by constructivist scholars (most notably Alexander Wendt) to bring the Hegelian idea of the `struggle for recognition' into the study of IR. Examining recognition theor…
Trade-based Diffusion of Labor Rights: A Panel Study, 1986-2002
This article investigates the nature of the linkages between trade and labor rights in developing countries. Specifically, we hypothesize that a "California effect" serves to transmit superior labor standards from importing to exporting countries, in a manner similar to the transmission of environmental standards. We maintain that, all else being equal, the labor standards of a given country are influenced not by its overall level of trade openne…
The Company You Keep: International Socialization and the Diffusion of Human Rights Norms
Does membership in Intergovernmental Organizations (IGOs) affect states' human rights behavior? One might expect IGOs with a specific human rights mandate, like the International Labour Organization or the Council of Europe, to have a positive effect on the human rights practices of their member states. But what about other sorts of IGOs, particularly those with no direct connection to human rights issues? This study employs cross-national data o…
The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts
Large-n studies of conflict have produced a large number of statistically significant results but little accurate guidance in terms of anticipating the onset of conflict. The authors argue that too much attention has been paid to finding statistically significant relationships, while too little attention has been paid to finding variables that improve our ability to predict civil wars. The result can be a distorted view of what matters most to th…
The Separation Plot: A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Fit of Binary Models
We present a visual method for assessing the predictive power of models with binary outcomes. This technique allows the analyst to evaluate model fit based upon the models’ ability to consistently match high‐probability predictions to actual occurrences of the event of interest, and low‐probability predictions to nonoccurrences of the event of interest. Unlike existing methods for assessing predictive power for logit and probit models such as Per…
Explaining Nonratification of the Genocide Convention: A Nested Analysis
What explains the large variation in the time taken by states to ratify the 1948 Genocide Convention? The costs of ratification would appear to be relatively low, yet many states have waited several decades before ratifying this symbolically important treaty. This study employs a “nested analysis” that combines a large-n event history analysis with a detailed study of an important outlying case in order to explain the main sources of this variati…
Where Is the Tipping Point? Bilateral Trade and the Diffusion of Human Rights
Drawing on a panel of 136 countries over the period 1982–2004, we study a tipping point version of Vogel's ‘California Effect’ in the context of the diffusion of human rights practices. Because human rights practices are often deeply embedded in a society's customs and political institutions, we expect that a high level of pressure from the importing countries is needed to bring about changes in an exporting country's human rights records. We fin…
Transmitting Rights: International Organizations and the Diffusion of Human Rights Practices
Full replication archive for my book "Transmitting Rights."
Clubs of Clubs: Fragmentation in the Network of Intergovernmental Organizations
Has international cooperation become fragmented in recent decades? We focus on a specific form of potential fragmentation in the international system: the extent to which the network of intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) consists of distinct clusters of closely cooperating states. IR scholars—including those with an interest in the causes and consequences of membership in IGOs—pay relatively little attention to the structure of the larger IGO…
The networked peace: Intergovernmental organizations and international conflict
Existing work has shown that membership in intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) can, among other outcomes, reduce conflict, promote democratization, and shape crisis bargaining. The traditional approach to studying how IGOs can reduce conflict has focused on the effects of dyads' direct ties to IGOs. In doing so, these analyses use fairly simple counts of the number of IGOs to which the states in each dyad share membership. We argue that this a…
Exploring the Adaptation-mitigation Relationship: Does Information on the Costs of Adapting to Climate Change Influence Support for Mitigation
Can information about adaptation costs influence citizens’ willingness to support climate change mitigation? Some scholars are concerned that policy discussions on adaptation might present climate change as a more manageable problem, and therefore crowd out mitigation efforts. On the other hand, providing information on adaptation costs may sensitize citizens to these costs, thereby increasing their willingness to support mitigation. To assess th…
The Demographic Transition Theory of War: Why Young Societies Are Conflict Prone and Old Societies Are the Most Peaceful
The world is experiencing a period of unprecedented demographic change. For the first time in human history, marked disparities in age structures exist across the globe. Around 40 percent of the world's population lives in countries with significant numbers of elderly citizens. In contrast, the majority of the world's people live in developing countries with very large numbers of young people as a proportion of the total population. Yet, demograp…
How can international organizations shape public opinion? analysis of a pair of survey-based experiments
Naming and shaming, government messaging, and backlash effects: Experimental evidence from the Convention Against Torture
Conventional thinking proposes that naming and shaming pushes publics to oppose government policies that are claimed to violate human rights. We explore the extent to which international organizations’ (IOs’) efforts to name and shame target governments can be frustrated by the target governments’ efforts to advance a counter-narrative. We test this using a survey-based experiment that focuses on the use of prolonged solitary confinement in US pr…
States as Role Models: Why Some Countries’ Policies Matter More than Others
We often look to the examples set by other countries when thinking about how to deal with problems at home. But what explains why some countries are more likely to serve as role models than others? Are people influenced mainly by the examples set by countries that are considered to be particularly successful in a given policy area? Or are they influenced to a greater extent by countries that are more familiar to them, or that appear more similar …
Manipulating Public Beliefs about Alliance Compliance: A Survey Experiment
Conventional wisdom on alliances proposes that leaders comply with alliances because the public opposes violating alliance commitments. However, this assumes that the public can easily judge whether or not a particular policy violates an alliance treaty. This article challenges this assumption and develops a theory that elites have the opportunity to shape public understanding as to whether an action violates an alliance treaty. It shows that whi…
Political science (14 works) · Law (11 works) · Economics (8 works) · Political Conflict and Governance (8 works) · Politics (8 works) · Sociology (8 works) · Law (7 works) · Psychology (7 works) · Human rights (5 works) · Business (4 works)