Jeff Tayman
Biographic Data
| ID | 3631404 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Jeff Tayman |
| GIVEN NAMES | Jeff |
| FAMILY NAME | Tayman |
| SIGNATURE | TAYMAN J |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of California San Diego |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-3572-209X |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 22 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 158 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 22 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1977 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 9 |
A New Approach to Probabilistic County Population Forecasting with an Example Application to West Texas
This paper shows how measures of uncertainty can be applied to existing subnational population forecasts using the 107 counties that make up West Texas as a case study. The measures of forecast uncertainty are relatively easy to calculate and meet several important criteria routinely applied by state and local demographers. We also report the results of two independent comparisons supporting the argument that our approach is valid. The paper conc…
A Simplified Version of the Hamilton–Perry Method for Forecasting Population by Age Group and Gender
American Indian census rolls
Historical information on tribal populations in the United States is incomplete. American Indians and Alaska Natives were not enumerated with the general population until the 1940 decennial census. However, Indian Census Rolls were produced for the period 1885 – 1940 under the auspices of the Bureau of Indian Affairs in the U.S. The information given in the Indian Census Rolls varies but usually includes the roll number, age, gender, tribal ident…
Boosted Regression Trees for Small-Area Population Forecasting
Using Synthetic Adjustments and Controlling to Improve County Population Forecasts from the Hamilton–Perry Method
Tayman and Swanson (J Popul Res 34(3):209–231, 2017) found in Washington State counties that a forecast based on the Hamilton–Perry method using a synthetic adjustment (SYN) of cohort change ratios and child-woman ratios had greater accuracy and less bias compared to forecasts holding these ratios constant (CONST). In this paper, we assess the robustness of SYN’s efficacy by evaluating forecast accuracy, bias, and distributional error across age …
The Accuracy of Hamilton–Perry Population Projections for Census Tracts in the United States
Using modified cohort change and child-woman ratios in the Hamilton–Perry forecasting method
Mape-R
Accurately measuring a population and its attributes at past, present, and future points in time has been of great interest to demographers. Within discussions of forecast accuracy, demographers have often been criticized for their inaccurate prognostications of the future. Discussions of methods and data are usually at the centre of these criticisms, along with suggestions for providing an idea of forecast uncertainty. The measures used to evalu…
Assessing Uncertainty in Small Area Forecasts
Evaluating Population Forecast Accuracy
Many studies have evaluated the impact of differences in population size and growth rate on population forecast accuracy. Virtually all these studies have been based on aggregate data; that is, they focused on average errors for places with particular size or growth rate characteristics. In this study, we take a different approach by investigating forecast accuracy using regression models based on data for individual places. Using decennial censu…
Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts
Population forecasts entail a significant amount of uncertainty, especially for long-range horizons and for places with small or rapidly changing populations. This uncertainty can be dealt with by presenting a range of projections or by developing statistical prediction intervals. The latter can be based on models that incorporate the stochastic nature of the forecasting process, on empirical analyses of past forecast errors, or on a combination …
Precision, bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts
An Evaluation of Population Projections by Age
An evaluation of population projections by age
A number of studies have evaluated the accuracy of projections of the size of the total population, but few have considered the accuracy of projections by age group. For many purposes, however, the relevant variable is the population of a particular age group, rather than the population as a whole. We investigated the precision and bias of a variety of age-group projections at the national and state levels in the United States and for counties in…
A note on the measurement of accuracy for subnational demographic estimates
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the measure most often used for evaluating subnational demographic estimates, is not always valid. We describe guidelines for determining when MAPE is valid. Applying them to case study data, we find that MAPE understates accuracy because it is unduly influenced by outliers. To overcome this problem, we calculate a transformed MAPE (MAPET) using a modified Box-Cox method. Because MAPE-T is not in the same sc…
On the validity of Mape as a measure of population forecast accuracy
The role of population size in the determination and prediction of population forecast errors
Forecasting, growth management and public policy decision making
On the utility of population forecasts
Many customers demand population forecasts, particularly for small areas. Although the forecast evaluation literature is extensive, it is dominated by a focus on accuracy. We go beyond accuracy by examining the concept of forecast utility in an evaluation of a sample of 2,709 counties and census tracts. Wefind that forecasters provide “value-added” knowledge for areas experiencing rapid change or areas with relatively large populations. For other…
Between a rock and a hard place
Postcensal estimates of household income distributions
This article develops and evaluates a method for deriving postcensal estimates of household income distributions for counties. A modified lognormal probability curve is used as a model of income distribution. The function is closely related to the classical lognormal model, but it contains a nonlinear component in its derivation. Simulated postcensal estimates of household income distributions are compared with 1980 census data for the counties i…
Ecological Approach to Migration Reexamined
Waite, Linda J. 1976 Working Wives and the Life Cycle. Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Department of Sociology, University of Michigan. Waite, Linda J. and Ross M. Stolzenberg 1976 Intended childbearing and labor force participation of young women: insights from nonrecursive models. American Sociological Review 41:235-52. Whelpton, Pascal K., Arthur A. Campbell and John E. Patterson 1966 Fertility and Family Planning in the United States. Princet…
Ecological Approach to Migration Reexamined
Waite, Linda J. 1976 Working Wives and the Life Cycle. Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Department of Sociology, University of Michigan. Waite, Linda J. and Ross M. Stolzenberg 1976 Intended childbearing and labor force participation of young women: insights from nonrecursive models. American Sociological Review 41:235-52. Whelpton, Pascal K., Arthur A. Campbell and John E. Patterson 1966 Fertility and Family Planning in the United States. Princet…
An evaluation of population projections by age
A number of studies have evaluated the accuracy of projections of the size of the total population, but few have considered the accuracy of projections by age group. For many purposes, however, the relevant variable is the population of a particular age group, rather than the population as a whole. We investigated the precision and bias of a variety of age-group projections at the national and state levels in the United States and for counties in…
The role of population size in the determination and prediction of population forecast errors
Mape-R
Accurately measuring a population and its attributes at past, present, and future points in time has been of great interest to demographers. Within discussions of forecast accuracy, demographers have often been criticized for their inaccurate prognostications of the future. Discussions of methods and data are usually at the centre of these criticisms, along with suggestions for providing an idea of forecast uncertainty. The measures used to evalu…
Precision, bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts
On the validity of Mape as a measure of population forecast accuracy
The Accuracy of Hamilton–Perry Population Projections for Census Tracts in the United States
Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts
Population forecasts entail a significant amount of uncertainty, especially for long-range horizons and for places with small or rapidly changing populations. This uncertainty can be dealt with by presenting a range of projections or by developing statistical prediction intervals. The latter can be based on models that incorporate the stochastic nature of the forecasting process, on empirical analyses of past forecast errors, or on a combination …
Between a rock and a hard place
Assessing Uncertainty in Small Area Forecasts
On the utility of population forecasts
Many customers demand population forecasts, particularly for small areas. Although the forecast evaluation literature is extensive, it is dominated by a focus on accuracy. We go beyond accuracy by examining the concept of forecast utility in an evaluation of a sample of 2,709 counties and census tracts. Wefind that forecasters provide “value-added” knowledge for areas experiencing rapid change or areas with relatively large populations. For other…
A note on the measurement of accuracy for subnational demographic estimates
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the measure most often used for evaluating subnational demographic estimates, is not always valid. We describe guidelines for determining when MAPE is valid. Applying them to case study data, we find that MAPE understates accuracy because it is unduly influenced by outliers. To overcome this problem, we calculate a transformed MAPE (MAPET) using a modified Box-Cox method. Because MAPE-T is not in the same sc…
Evaluating Population Forecast Accuracy
Many studies have evaluated the impact of differences in population size and growth rate on population forecast accuracy. Virtually all these studies have been based on aggregate data; that is, they focused on average errors for places with particular size or growth rate characteristics. In this study, we take a different approach by investigating forecast accuracy using regression models based on data for individual places. Using decennial censu…
Using modified cohort change and child-woman ratios in the Hamilton–Perry forecasting method
Using Synthetic Adjustments and Controlling to Improve County Population Forecasts from the Hamilton–Perry Method
Tayman and Swanson (J Popul Res 34(3):209–231, 2017) found in Washington State counties that a forecast based on the Hamilton–Perry method using a synthetic adjustment (SYN) of cohort change ratios and child-woman ratios had greater accuracy and less bias compared to forecasts holding these ratios constant (CONST). In this paper, we assess the robustness of SYN’s efficacy by evaluating forecast accuracy, bias, and distributional error across age …
Postcensal estimates of household income distributions
This article develops and evaluates a method for deriving postcensal estimates of household income distributions for counties. A modified lognormal probability curve is used as a model of income distribution. The function is closely related to the classical lognormal model, but it contains a nonlinear component in its derivation. Simulated postcensal estimates of household income distributions are compared with 1980 census data for the counties i…
Forecasting, growth management and public policy decision making
Boosted Regression Trees for Small-Area Population Forecasting
Ecological Approach to Migration Reexamined
Waite, Linda J. 1976 Working Wives and the Life Cycle. Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Department of Sociology, University of Michigan. Waite, Linda J. and Ross M. Stolzenberg 1976 Intended childbearing and labor force participation of young women: insights from nonrecursive models. American Sociological Review 41:235-52. Whelpton, Pascal K., Arthur A. Campbell and John E. Patterson 1966 Fertility and Family Planning in the United States. Princet…
Postcensal estimates of household income distributions
This article develops and evaluates a method for deriving postcensal estimates of household income distributions for counties. A modified lognormal probability curve is used as a model of income distribution. The function is closely related to the classical lognormal model, but it contains a nonlinear component in its derivation. Simulated postcensal estimates of household income distributions are compared with 1980 census data for the counties i…
Between a rock and a hard place
Forecasting, growth management and public policy decision making
On the utility of population forecasts
Many customers demand population forecasts, particularly for small areas. Although the forecast evaluation literature is extensive, it is dominated by a focus on accuracy. We go beyond accuracy by examining the concept of forecast utility in an evaluation of a sample of 2,709 counties and census tracts. Wefind that forecasters provide “value-added” knowledge for areas experiencing rapid change or areas with relatively large populations. For other…
The role of population size in the determination and prediction of population forecast errors
On the validity of Mape as a measure of population forecast accuracy
A note on the measurement of accuracy for subnational demographic estimates
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the measure most often used for evaluating subnational demographic estimates, is not always valid. We describe guidelines for determining when MAPE is valid. Applying them to case study data, we find that MAPE understates accuracy because it is unduly influenced by outliers. To overcome this problem, we calculate a transformed MAPE (MAPET) using a modified Box-Cox method. Because MAPE-T is not in the same sc…
An Evaluation of Population Projections by Age
An evaluation of population projections by age
A number of studies have evaluated the accuracy of projections of the size of the total population, but few have considered the accuracy of projections by age group. For many purposes, however, the relevant variable is the population of a particular age group, rather than the population as a whole. We investigated the precision and bias of a variety of age-group projections at the national and state levels in the United States and for counties in…
Precision, bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts
Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts
Population forecasts entail a significant amount of uncertainty, especially for long-range horizons and for places with small or rapidly changing populations. This uncertainty can be dealt with by presenting a range of projections or by developing statistical prediction intervals. The latter can be based on models that incorporate the stochastic nature of the forecasting process, on empirical analyses of past forecast errors, or on a combination …
Mape-R
Accurately measuring a population and its attributes at past, present, and future points in time has been of great interest to demographers. Within discussions of forecast accuracy, demographers have often been criticized for their inaccurate prognostications of the future. Discussions of methods and data are usually at the centre of these criticisms, along with suggestions for providing an idea of forecast uncertainty. The measures used to evalu…
Assessing Uncertainty in Small Area Forecasts
Evaluating Population Forecast Accuracy
Many studies have evaluated the impact of differences in population size and growth rate on population forecast accuracy. Virtually all these studies have been based on aggregate data; that is, they focused on average errors for places with particular size or growth rate characteristics. In this study, we take a different approach by investigating forecast accuracy using regression models based on data for individual places. Using decennial censu…
Using modified cohort change and child-woman ratios in the Hamilton–Perry forecasting method
Using Synthetic Adjustments and Controlling to Improve County Population Forecasts from the Hamilton–Perry Method
Tayman and Swanson (J Popul Res 34(3):209–231, 2017) found in Washington State counties that a forecast based on the Hamilton–Perry method using a synthetic adjustment (SYN) of cohort change ratios and child-woman ratios had greater accuracy and less bias compared to forecasts holding these ratios constant (CONST). In this paper, we assess the robustness of SYN’s efficacy by evaluating forecast accuracy, bias, and distributional error across age …
The Accuracy of Hamilton–Perry Population Projections for Census Tracts in the United States
Boosted Regression Trees for Small-Area Population Forecasting
American Indian census rolls
Historical information on tribal populations in the United States is incomplete. American Indians and Alaska Natives were not enumerated with the general population until the 1940 decennial census. However, Indian Census Rolls were produced for the period 1885 – 1940 under the auspices of the Bureau of Indian Affairs in the U.S. The information given in the Indian Census Rolls varies but usually includes the roll number, age, gender, tribal ident…
A New Approach to Probabilistic County Population Forecasting with an Example Application to West Texas
This paper shows how measures of uncertainty can be applied to existing subnational population forecasts using the 107 counties that make up West Texas as a case study. The measures of forecast uncertainty are relatively easy to calculate and meet several important criteria routinely applied by state and local demographers. We also report the results of two independent comparisons supporting the argument that our approach is valid. The paper conc…
A Simplified Version of the Hamilton–Perry Method for Forecasting Population by Age Group and Gender
demographic modeling and climate adaptation (16 works) · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management (16 works) · Population (16 works) · Demography (15 works) · Econometrics (15 works) · Mathematics (14 works) · Demography (13 works) · Statistics (13 works) · Geography (11 works) · Computer Science (9 works)