David A Swanson
Biographic Data
| ID | 3685622 |
|---|---|
| NAME | David A Swanson |
| GIVEN NAMES | David A |
| FAMILY NAME | Swanson |
| SIGNATURE | SWANSON D A |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of California, Riverside |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-4284-9478 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 46 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 149 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 46 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1973 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 7 |
A New Approach to Probabilistic County Population Forecasting with an Example Application to West Texas
This paper shows how measures of uncertainty can be applied to existing subnational population forecasts using the 107 counties that make up West Texas as a case study. The measures of forecast uncertainty are relatively easy to calculate and meet several important criteria routinely applied by state and local demographers. We also report the results of two independent comparisons supporting the argument that our approach is valid. The paper conc…
A Simplified Version of the Hamilton–Perry Method for Forecasting Population by Age Group and Gender
Estimating the stochastic uncertainty underlying sample-based estimates of infant mortality in the Philippines
The decline of the non‐Hispanic white population in the United States of America
Objectives The question of a declining non‐Hispanic white (NHW) population has sparked debate in the United States. In examining this question, three bodies of research have emerged. One group reports that the decline is real, a second argues that it is an illusion, and the third provides evidence that the decline is concentrated within socio‐economic segments of the NHW population. We use the third groups’ insight as the starting point for our r…
American Indian census rolls
Historical information on tribal populations in the United States is incomplete. American Indians and Alaska Natives were not enumerated with the general population until the 1940 decennial census. However, Indian Census Rolls were produced for the period 1885 – 1940 under the auspices of the Bureau of Indian Affairs in the U.S. The information given in the Indian Census Rolls varies but usually includes the roll number, age, gender, tribal ident…
Boosted Regression Trees for Small-Area Population Forecasting
Forecasting a Tribal Population Using the Cohort-Component Method
The Mexican‐American worker
Objective There are two fundamental arguments about why Mexican Americans have failed to be assimilated. Human capital theorists argue that it is due to their inferior human capital. In contrast, other theorists argue that discrimination is the primary reason. Our proposition is that both arguments are better served if data parse out Mexican immigrants. Failure to do so creates statistical bias regarding the “true” status of Mexican‐American work…
Using Synthetic Adjustments and Controlling to Improve County Population Forecasts from the Hamilton–Perry Method
Tayman and Swanson (J Popul Res 34(3):209–231, 2017) found in Washington State counties that a forecast based on the Hamilton–Perry method using a synthetic adjustment (SYN) of cohort change ratios and child-woman ratios had greater accuracy and less bias compared to forecasts holding these ratios constant (CONST). In this paper, we assess the robustness of SYN’s efficacy by evaluating forecast accuracy, bias, and distributional error across age …
The Accuracy of Hamilton–Perry Population Projections for Census Tracts in the United States
The Civil War’s Demographic Impact on White Males in the Eleven Confederate States
Recent research has put the likely number of Civil War male deaths on both sides of the conflict at 750,000, challenging the conventional number of approximately 620,000. Using similar data and a different methodology, this study supports the newer results in terms of the Confederate states, where we find approximately 346,000 male deaths, a number that far exceeds a long-accepted estimate of 126,000. In fact, our number is about 88,000 more deat…
Estimating the underlying infant mortality rates for small populations
Global Population in Transition
Using modified cohort change and child-woman ratios in the Hamilton–Perry forecasting method
Changes in Censuses from Imperialist to Welfare States
Applied Demography
Lisa M. BRADY. War upon the Land
War often devastates landscapes as efficiently as it ravages human bodies. While most historians acknowledge this as a given, environmental historians have been relatively slow to engage with the American Civil War, perhaps out of a wariness of the tremendous and rather fractious body of existing scholarship, or perhaps because of the conceptual challenges of reframing familiar discussions of geography, disease, and weather in explicitly environm…
An Evaluation of Persons per Household (PPH) Estimates Generated by the American Community Survey
Estimating Characteristics of the Foreign-Born by Legal Status
Mape-R
Accurately measuring a population and its attributes at past, present, and future points in time has been of great interest to demographers. Within discussions of forecast accuracy, demographers have often been criticized for their inaccurate prognostications of the future. Discussions of methods and data are usually at the centre of these criticisms, along with suggestions for providing an idea of forecast uncertainty. The measures used to evalu…
Teaching Business Demography Using Case Studies
Many faculty members consider using case studies but not all end up using them. We provide a brief review of what cases are intended to do and identify three ways in which they can be used. We then use an example to illustrate how we have used the case study method in teaching business demography. Among other benefits, we note that the case studies method not only encourages the acquisition of skills by students, but can be used to promote "deep …
Forecasting the Population of Census Tracts by Age and Sex
Small area population projections are useful in a range of business applications. This paper uses a case study to show how this type of task can be accomplished by using the Hamilton-Perry method, which is a variant of the cohort-component projection technique. We provide the documentation on the methods, data, and assumptions used to develop two sets of population projections for census tracts in Clark County, Nevada, and discuss specific factor…
Business Demography in the 21st Century
observe that applied demography is evolving as the 21st century unfolds and that data bases, substantive issues and methodological approaches seldom considered just a few years ago have become mainstream concerns in the field. Making up applied demography are two subsets: (1) public sector demography; and (2) business demography. Thus, in this special issue of Population Research and Policy Review, we are pleased to present an overview of the fie…
New Directions in the Development of Population Estimates in the United States
The advent of a continuously updated Master Area File (MAF) following the 2000 census represents an information resource that can be tapped for purposes of developing timely, cost-effective, and precise population estimates for even the smallest of geographical units (e.g., census blocks). We argue that the MAF can be enhanced (EMAF) for these purposes. In support of our argument we describe a set of activities needed to develop EMAF, each of whi…
Before, Now, and After
Mape-R
Accurately measuring a population and its attributes at past, present, and future points in time has been of great interest to demographers. Within discussions of forecast accuracy, demographers have often been criticized for their inaccurate prognostications of the future. Discussions of methods and data are usually at the centre of these criticisms, along with suggestions for providing an idea of forecast uncertainty. The measures used to evalu…
Forecasting the Population of Census Tracts by Age and Sex
Small area population projections are useful in a range of business applications. This paper uses a case study to show how this type of task can be accomplished by using the Hamilton-Perry method, which is a variant of the cohort-component projection technique. We provide the documentation on the methods, data, and assumptions used to develop two sets of population projections for census tracts in Clark County, Nevada, and discuss specific factor…
On the validity of Mape as a measure of population forecast accuracy
The Accuracy of Hamilton–Perry Population Projections for Census Tracts in the United States
Between a rock and a hard place
On the utility of population forecasts
Many customers demand population forecasts, particularly for small areas. Although the forecast evaluation literature is extensive, it is dominated by a focus on accuracy. We go beyond accuracy by examining the concept of forecast utility in an evaluation of a sample of 2,709 counties and census tracts. Wefind that forecasters provide “value-added” knowledge for areas experiencing rapid change or areas with relatively large populations. For other…
After a Disaster
A note on the measurement of accuracy for subnational demographic estimates
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the measure most often used for evaluating subnational demographic estimates, is not always valid. We describe guidelines for determining when MAPE is valid. Applying them to case study data, we find that MAPE understates accuracy because it is unduly influenced by outliers. To overcome this problem, we calculate a transformed MAPE (MAPET) using a modified Box-Cox method. Because MAPE-T is not in the same sc…
Improving Accuracy in Multiple Regression Estimates of Population Using Principles from Causal Modelling
This paper reports a mildly restricted procedure for using a theoretical causal ordering and principles from path analysis to provide a basis for modifying regression coefficients in order to improve the estimation accuracy of the ratio-correlation method of population estimation. The modification is intended to take into account temporal changes in the structure of variable relationships, a major element in determining the accuracy of post-censa…
Using modified cohort change and child-woman ratios in the Hamilton–Perry forecasting method
An Evaluation of Persons per Household (PPH) Estimates Generated by the American Community Survey
Before, Now, and After
Using Synthetic Adjustments and Controlling to Improve County Population Forecasts from the Hamilton–Perry Method
Tayman and Swanson (J Popul Res 34(3):209–231, 2017) found in Washington State counties that a forecast based on the Hamilton–Perry method using a synthetic adjustment (SYN) of cohort change ratios and child-woman ratios had greater accuracy and less bias compared to forecasts holding these ratios constant (CONST). In this paper, we assess the robustness of SYN’s efficacy by evaluating forecast accuracy, bias, and distributional error across age …
New Directions in the Development of Population Estimates in the United States
The advent of a continuously updated Master Area File (MAF) following the 2000 census represents an information resource that can be tapped for purposes of developing timely, cost-effective, and precise population estimates for even the smallest of geographical units (e.g., census blocks). We argue that the MAF can be enhanced (EMAF) for these purposes. In support of our argument we describe a set of activities needed to develop EMAF, each of whi…
Providing census tabulations to government security agencies in the United States
An evaluation of the American Community Survey
Advancing Methodological Knowledge Within State and Local Demography
Temporal variations in the relationship between infant mortality and economic status
Improving the measurement of temporal change in regression models used for county population estimates
The ratio-correlation method of population estimation is shown to contain an inconsistent temporal relationship between the model’s empirical structure and its actual application. A simple transformation of the model’s variables is provided that eliminates the inconsistency. Two tests of the relative accuracy of the original and transformed models show that the transformed model achieves accuracy levels equal to or higher than the original. In on…
Changes in Censuses from Imperialist to Welfare States
What is applied demography
Trends in the Relationship between Infant Mortality and Socioeconomic Status
This paper reports some of the results of an ecological analysis of the relationship between infant mortality and economic status in metropolitan Ohio at three points in time (1959–1961, 1969–1971 and 1979–1981). The data presented clearly reveal the adverse mortality consequences of alow economic status. In spite of some remarkable declines in the infant death rate since 1960, most notably in neonatal mortality, the inverse socioeconomic differe…
In search of the ideal measure of accuracy for subnational demographic forecasts
A state-based regression model for estimating substate life expectancy
Life expectancy is an important indicator of the level of mortality in a population. However, the conventional way of calculating life expectancy—constructing a life table—has rigorous data requirements. As a consequence, life expectancy data are not usually available for substate areas. In this article, a regression model for estimating life expectancy is constructed, using state-level data, and is tested against two sets of 1980 life expectancy…
Public policy and the socioeconomic mortality differential in infancy
A Comment on the Clemente (MFD) and Gibbs-Martin (MID) Measures of the Division of Labor
A Comment on the Clemente (MFD) and Gibbs-Martin (MID) Measures of the Division of Labor: Their Relation to Amemiya's Index of Economic Differentiation (IED) Author(s): David A. Swanson Source: The Pacific Sociological Review, Vol. 16, No. 3 (Jul., 1973), pp. 401-405 Published by: University of California Press Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1388494 Accessed: 04/12/2010 17:40 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JST…
A Sampling Distribution and Significance Test for Differences in Qualitative Variation
This research note demonstrates that M1 and M2, two of the six measures of the division of labor discussed by Gibbs and Poston, commonly conceptualized as measures of qualitative variation, can be interpreted in terms of the expanded binomial probability model. Ml is the variance of the expanded binomial probability model and M2 is the ratio of the variance of the expanded binomial model to the variance of a binomial model
Improving Accuracy in Multiple Regression Estimates of Population Using Principles from Causal Modelling
This paper reports a mildly restricted procedure for using a theoretical causal ordering and principles from path analysis to provide a basis for modifying regression coefficients in order to improve the estimation accuracy of the ratio-correlation method of population estimation. The modification is intended to take into account temporal changes in the structure of variable relationships, a major element in determining the accuracy of post-censa…
Improving the measurement of temporal change in regression models used for county population estimates
The ratio-correlation method of population estimation is shown to contain an inconsistent temporal relationship between the model’s empirical structure and its actual application. A simple transformation of the model’s variables is provided that eliminates the inconsistency. Two tests of the relative accuracy of the original and transformed models show that the transformed model achieves accuracy levels equal to or higher than the original. In on…
Public policy and the socioeconomic mortality differential in infancy
Trends in the Relationship between Infant Mortality and Socioeconomic Status
This paper reports some of the results of an ecological analysis of the relationship between infant mortality and economic status in metropolitan Ohio at three points in time (1959–1961, 1969–1971 and 1979–1981). The data presented clearly reveal the adverse mortality consequences of alow economic status. In spite of some remarkable declines in the infant death rate since 1960, most notably in neonatal mortality, the inverse socioeconomic differe…
The age-cause proxy relationship in infant mortality
Data presented in this brief note show that one of the consequences of recent gains in the control of neonatal mortality has been an increase in the frequency of endogenous causes of death in the postneonatal period. This in turn has greatly diminished the validity of using the postneonatal death rate as a proxy for the level of exogenous mortality in infancy. Moreover, although there continues to be a very strong correlation between neonatal and…
Temporal variations in the relationship between infant mortality and economic status
A state-based regression model for estimating substate life expectancy
Life expectancy is an important indicator of the level of mortality in a population. However, the conventional way of calculating life expectancy—constructing a life table—has rigorous data requirements. As a consequence, life expectancy data are not usually available for substate areas. In this article, a regression model for estimating life expectancy is constructed, using state-level data, and is tested against two sets of 1980 life expectancy…
Between a rock and a hard place
What is applied demography
Ties that bind
On the utility of population forecasts
Many customers demand population forecasts, particularly for small areas. Although the forecast evaluation literature is extensive, it is dominated by a focus on accuracy. We go beyond accuracy by examining the concept of forecast utility in an evaluation of a sample of 2,709 counties and census tracts. Wefind that forecasters provide “value-added” knowledge for areas experiencing rapid change or areas with relatively large populations. For other…
In search of the ideal measure of accuracy for subnational demographic forecasts
On the validity of Mape as a measure of population forecast accuracy
A note on the measurement of accuracy for subnational demographic estimates
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the measure most often used for evaluating subnational demographic estimates, is not always valid. We describe guidelines for determining when MAPE is valid. Applying them to case study data, we find that MAPE understates accuracy because it is unduly influenced by outliers. To overcome this problem, we calculate a transformed MAPE (MAPET) using a modified Box-Cox method. Because MAPE-T is not in the same sc…
Advancing Methodological Knowledge Within State and Local Demography
An evaluation of the American Community Survey
Providing census tabulations to government security agencies in the United States
Before, Now, and After
After a Disaster
Demographic Forecasting
Teaching Business Demography Using Case Studies
Many faculty members consider using case studies but not all end up using them. We provide a brief review of what cases are intended to do and identify three ways in which they can be used. We then use an example to illustrate how we have used the case study method in teaching business demography. Among other benefits, we note that the case studies method not only encourages the acquisition of skills by students, but can be used to promote "deep …
Forecasting the Population of Census Tracts by Age and Sex
Small area population projections are useful in a range of business applications. This paper uses a case study to show how this type of task can be accomplished by using the Hamilton-Perry method, which is a variant of the cohort-component projection technique. We provide the documentation on the methods, data, and assumptions used to develop two sets of population projections for census tracts in Clark County, Nevada, and discuss specific factor…
Business Demography in the 21st Century
observe that applied demography is evolving as the 21st century unfolds and that data bases, substantive issues and methodological approaches seldom considered just a few years ago have become mainstream concerns in the field. Making up applied demography are two subsets: (1) public sector demography; and (2) business demography. Thus, in this special issue of Population Research and Policy Review, we are pleased to present an overview of the fie…
Population (33 works) · Demography (30 works) · Sociology (27 works) · Geography (24 works) · Demography (22 works) · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management (20 works) · Computer Science (19 works) · Mathematics (18 works) · demographic modeling and climate adaptation (17 works) · Economics (17 works)