Stanley K Smith
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 3710144 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Stanley K Smith |
| PRENOMES | Stanley K |
| SOBRENOME | Smith |
| ASSINATURA | SMITH S K |
| AFILIAÇÕES | University of Florida |
| VERIFICADO | Não |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 23 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 175 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 23 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1980 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2014 |
| ÍNDICE H | 9 |
Population Projections by Age for Florida and its Counties
Making the Housing Unit Method Work
Population Aging, Disability and Housing Accessibility
The older population in many countries is large and growing rapidly, increasing the number of people with disabilities and driving up the need for accessible housing. In a previous study, the authors projected the number of households in the USA with at least one disabled resident and estimated the probability that a newly built single-family detached unit will house at least one disabled resident during its expected lifetime. This study extends …
Evaluating Population Forecast Accuracy
Many studies have evaluated the impact of differences in population size and growth rate on population forecast accuracy. Virtually all these studies have been based on aggregate data; that is, they focused on average errors for places with particular size or growth rate characteristics. In this study, we take a different approach by investigating forecast accuracy using regression models based on data for individual places. Using decennial censu…
Factors Affecting the Accuracy of Subcounty Population Forecasts
Small-area population forecasts are used for a wide variety of planning and budgeting purposes. Using 1970 to 2005 data for incorporated places and unincorporated areas in Florida, we evaluate the accuracy of forecasts made with several extrapolation techniques, averages, and composite methods, and we assess the effects of differences in population size, growth rate, and length of forecast horizon on forecast errors. We further investigate the im…
Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts
Population forecasts entail a significant amount of uncertainty, especially for long-range horizons and for places with small or rapidly changing populations. This uncertainty can be dealt with by presenting a range of projections or by developing statistical prediction intervals. The latter can be based on models that incorporate the stochastic nature of the forecasting process, on empirical analyses of past forecast errors, or on a combination …
Fleeing the storm(s)
The 2004 hurricane season was the worst in Florida’s history, with four hurricanes causing at least 47 deaths and some $45 billion in damages. To collect information on the demographic impact of those hurricanes, we surveyed households throughout the state and in the local areas that sustained the greatest damage. We estimate that one-quarter of Florida’s population evacuated prior to at least one hurricane; in some areas, well over one-half of t…
Temporary migration
Precision, bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts
An Evaluation of Population Estimates in Florida
An Evaluation of Hispanic Population Estimates
Objective. Estimates of the Hispanic population have traditionally been based on historical trends, ratios, or some variant of the cohort‐component method. In this article, we describe and test a methodology in which estimates of the Hispanic population are based on symptomatic indicators of population change such as births, deaths, and school enrollments. Methods. Using a variety of techniques, we develop Hispanic population estimates for counti…
An Evaluation of Population Projections by Age
An evaluation of population projections by age
A number of studies have evaluated the accuracy of projections of the size of the total population, but few have considered the accuracy of projections by age group. For many purposes, however, the relevant variable is the population of a particular age group, rather than the population as a whole. We investigated the precision and bias of a variety of age-group projections at the national and state levels in the United States and for counties in…
A regression approach to estimating the average number of persons per household
In the housing unit method, population is calculated as the number of households times the average number of persons per household (PPH), plus the population residing in group quarters facilities. Estimates of households and the group quarters population can be derived directly from concurrent data series, but estimates of PPH have traditionally been based on previous values or estimates for larger areas. In our study, we developed several regres…
A Regression Approach to Estimating the Average Number of Persons Per Household
In the housing unit method, population is calculated as the number of households times the average number of persons per household (PPH), plus the population residing in group quarters facilities. Estimates of households and the group quarters population can be derived directly from concurrent data series, but estimates of PPH have traditionally been based on previous values or estimates for larger areas. In our study, we developed several regres…
Demography of disaster
Demographic effects of natural disasters
Many studies have considered the economic, social, and psychological effects of hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, and other natural disasters, but few have considered their demographic effects. In this paper we describe and evaluate a method for measuring the effects of Hurricane Andrew on the housing stock and population distribution in Dade County, Florida. Using information collected through sample surveys and from other data sources…
An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Length of Forecast Horizon on Population Forecast Errors
Many studies have found that population forecast errors generally increase with the length of the forecast horizon, but none have examined this relationship in detail. Do errors grow linearly, exponentially, or in some other manner as the forecast horizon becomes longer? Does the error-horizon relationship differ by forecasting technique, launch year, size of place, or rate of growth? Do alternative measures of error make a difference? In this ar…
Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors
A number of studies in recent years have investigated empirical approaches to the production of confidence intervals for population projections. The critical assumption underlying these approaches is that the distribution of forecast errors remains stable over time. In this article, we evaluate this assumption by making population projections for states for a number of time periods during the 20th century, comparing these projections with census …
Accounting for migration in cohort-component projections of state and local populations
Migration is the most difficult component of state and local population growth to forecast accurately because it is more volatile than either births or deaths, and subject to much larger fluctuations within a short period of time. In addition, migration rates can be based on several different measures of migration and the base population. The choice of the appropriate base population has received little attention from demographic researchers, but…
Some New Techniques for Applying the Housing Unit Method of Local Population Estimation
The housing unit method of population estimation is often characterized as being imprecise and having an upward bias. In an earlier paper we argued that the method itself cannot be properly characterized by a particular level of precision or direction of bias. Only specific techniques of applying the method can have such characteristics. In that paper we presented several new techniques for estimating the number of households and average number o…
Determinants of Female Labor Force Participation and Family Size in Mexico City
Some New Techniques for Applying the Housing Unit Method of Local Population Estimation
The housing unit method of population estimation is often characterized as being imprecise and having an upward bias. We believe that the method itself cannot properly be characterized by a particular level of precision or direction of bias. Only specific techniques of applying the method can have such characteristics. In this paper we discuss several new techniques we have developed for estimating households and the average number of persons per…
Demographic effects of natural disasters
Many studies have considered the economic, social, and psychological effects of hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, and other natural disasters, but few have considered their demographic effects. In this paper we describe and evaluate a method for measuring the effects of Hurricane Andrew on the housing stock and population distribution in Dade County, Florida. Using information collected through sample surveys and from other data sources…
An evaluation of population projections by age
A number of studies have evaluated the accuracy of projections of the size of the total population, but few have considered the accuracy of projections by age group. For many purposes, however, the relevant variable is the population of a particular age group, rather than the population as a whole. We investigated the precision and bias of a variety of age-group projections at the national and state levels in the United States and for counties in…
Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors
A number of studies in recent years have investigated empirical approaches to the production of confidence intervals for population projections. The critical assumption underlying these approaches is that the distribution of forecast errors remains stable over time. In this article, we evaluate this assumption by making population projections for states for a number of time periods during the 20th century, comparing these projections with census …
Factors Affecting the Accuracy of Subcounty Population Forecasts
Small-area population forecasts are used for a wide variety of planning and budgeting purposes. Using 1970 to 2005 data for incorporated places and unincorporated areas in Florida, we evaluate the accuracy of forecasts made with several extrapolation techniques, averages, and composite methods, and we assess the effects of differences in population size, growth rate, and length of forecast horizon on forecast errors. We further investigate the im…
Fleeing the storm(s)
The 2004 hurricane season was the worst in Florida’s history, with four hurricanes causing at least 47 deaths and some $45 billion in damages. To collect information on the demographic impact of those hurricanes, we surveyed households throughout the state and in the local areas that sustained the greatest damage. We estimate that one-quarter of Florida’s population evacuated prior to at least one hurricane; in some areas, well over one-half of t…
Precision, bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts
Some New Techniques for Applying the Housing Unit Method of Local Population Estimation
The housing unit method of population estimation is often characterized as being imprecise and having an upward bias. We believe that the method itself cannot properly be characterized by a particular level of precision or direction of bias. Only specific techniques of applying the method can have such characteristics. In this paper we discuss several new techniques we have developed for estimating households and the average number of persons per…
Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts
Population forecasts entail a significant amount of uncertainty, especially for long-range horizons and for places with small or rapidly changing populations. This uncertainty can be dealt with by presenting a range of projections or by developing statistical prediction intervals. The latter can be based on models that incorporate the stochastic nature of the forecasting process, on empirical analyses of past forecast errors, or on a combination …
Demography of disaster
An Evaluation of Population Estimates in Florida
Population Aging, Disability and Housing Accessibility
The older population in many countries is large and growing rapidly, increasing the number of people with disabilities and driving up the need for accessible housing. In a previous study, the authors projected the number of households in the USA with at least one disabled resident and estimated the probability that a newly built single-family detached unit will house at least one disabled resident during its expected lifetime. This study extends …
Evaluating Population Forecast Accuracy
Many studies have evaluated the impact of differences in population size and growth rate on population forecast accuracy. Virtually all these studies have been based on aggregate data; that is, they focused on average errors for places with particular size or growth rate characteristics. In this study, we take a different approach by investigating forecast accuracy using regression models based on data for individual places. Using decennial censu…
Accounting for migration in cohort-component projections of state and local populations
Migration is the most difficult component of state and local population growth to forecast accurately because it is more volatile than either births or deaths, and subject to much larger fluctuations within a short period of time. In addition, migration rates can be based on several different measures of migration and the base population. The choice of the appropriate base population has received little attention from demographic researchers, but…
Temporary migration
Population Projections by Age for Florida and its Counties
An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Length of Forecast Horizon on Population Forecast Errors
Many studies have found that population forecast errors generally increase with the length of the forecast horizon, but none have examined this relationship in detail. Do errors grow linearly, exponentially, or in some other manner as the forecast horizon becomes longer? Does the error-horizon relationship differ by forecasting technique, launch year, size of place, or rate of growth? Do alternative measures of error make a difference? In this ar…
Some New Techniques for Applying the Housing Unit Method of Local Population Estimation
The housing unit method of population estimation is often characterized as being imprecise and having an upward bias. In an earlier paper we argued that the method itself cannot be properly characterized by a particular level of precision or direction of bias. Only specific techniques of applying the method can have such characteristics. In that paper we presented several new techniques for estimating the number of households and average number o…
Determinants of Female Labor Force Participation and Family Size in Mexico City
Making the Housing Unit Method Work
Some New Techniques for Applying the Housing Unit Method of Local Population Estimation
The housing unit method of population estimation is often characterized as being imprecise and having an upward bias. We believe that the method itself cannot properly be characterized by a particular level of precision or direction of bias. Only specific techniques of applying the method can have such characteristics. In this paper we discuss several new techniques we have developed for estimating households and the average number of persons per…
Determinants of Female Labor Force Participation and Family Size in Mexico City
Some New Techniques for Applying the Housing Unit Method of Local Population Estimation
The housing unit method of population estimation is often characterized as being imprecise and having an upward bias. In an earlier paper we argued that the method itself cannot be properly characterized by a particular level of precision or direction of bias. Only specific techniques of applying the method can have such characteristics. In that paper we presented several new techniques for estimating the number of households and average number o…
Accounting for migration in cohort-component projections of state and local populations
Migration is the most difficult component of state and local population growth to forecast accurately because it is more volatile than either births or deaths, and subject to much larger fluctuations within a short period of time. In addition, migration rates can be based on several different measures of migration and the base population. The choice of the appropriate base population has received little attention from demographic researchers, but…
Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors
A number of studies in recent years have investigated empirical approaches to the production of confidence intervals for population projections. The critical assumption underlying these approaches is that the distribution of forecast errors remains stable over time. In this article, we evaluate this assumption by making population projections for states for a number of time periods during the 20th century, comparing these projections with census …
An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Length of Forecast Horizon on Population Forecast Errors
Many studies have found that population forecast errors generally increase with the length of the forecast horizon, but none have examined this relationship in detail. Do errors grow linearly, exponentially, or in some other manner as the forecast horizon becomes longer? Does the error-horizon relationship differ by forecasting technique, launch year, size of place, or rate of growth? Do alternative measures of error make a difference? In this ar…
Demography of disaster
Demographic effects of natural disasters
Many studies have considered the economic, social, and psychological effects of hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, and other natural disasters, but few have considered their demographic effects. In this paper we describe and evaluate a method for measuring the effects of Hurricane Andrew on the housing stock and population distribution in Dade County, Florida. Using information collected through sample surveys and from other data sources…
A regression approach to estimating the average number of persons per household
In the housing unit method, population is calculated as the number of households times the average number of persons per household (PPH), plus the population residing in group quarters facilities. Estimates of households and the group quarters population can be derived directly from concurrent data series, but estimates of PPH have traditionally been based on previous values or estimates for larger areas. In our study, we developed several regres…
A Regression Approach to Estimating the Average Number of Persons Per Household
In the housing unit method, population is calculated as the number of households times the average number of persons per household (PPH), plus the population residing in group quarters facilities. Estimates of households and the group quarters population can be derived directly from concurrent data series, but estimates of PPH have traditionally been based on previous values or estimates for larger areas. In our study, we developed several regres…
An Evaluation of Population Projections by Age
An evaluation of population projections by age
A number of studies have evaluated the accuracy of projections of the size of the total population, but few have considered the accuracy of projections by age group. For many purposes, however, the relevant variable is the population of a particular age group, rather than the population as a whole. We investigated the precision and bias of a variety of age-group projections at the national and state levels in the United States and for counties in…
An Evaluation of Population Estimates in Florida
An Evaluation of Hispanic Population Estimates
Objective. Estimates of the Hispanic population have traditionally been based on historical trends, ratios, or some variant of the cohort‐component method. In this article, we describe and test a methodology in which estimates of the Hispanic population are based on symptomatic indicators of population change such as births, deaths, and school enrollments. Methods. Using a variety of techniques, we develop Hispanic population estimates for counti…
Temporary migration
Precision, bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts
Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts
Population forecasts entail a significant amount of uncertainty, especially for long-range horizons and for places with small or rapidly changing populations. This uncertainty can be dealt with by presenting a range of projections or by developing statistical prediction intervals. The latter can be based on models that incorporate the stochastic nature of the forecasting process, on empirical analyses of past forecast errors, or on a combination …
Fleeing the storm(s)
The 2004 hurricane season was the worst in Florida’s history, with four hurricanes causing at least 47 deaths and some $45 billion in damages. To collect information on the demographic impact of those hurricanes, we surveyed households throughout the state and in the local areas that sustained the greatest damage. We estimate that one-quarter of Florida’s population evacuated prior to at least one hurricane; in some areas, well over one-half of t…
Factors Affecting the Accuracy of Subcounty Population Forecasts
Small-area population forecasts are used for a wide variety of planning and budgeting purposes. Using 1970 to 2005 data for incorporated places and unincorporated areas in Florida, we evaluate the accuracy of forecasts made with several extrapolation techniques, averages, and composite methods, and we assess the effects of differences in population size, growth rate, and length of forecast horizon on forecast errors. We further investigate the im…
Evaluating Population Forecast Accuracy
Many studies have evaluated the impact of differences in population size and growth rate on population forecast accuracy. Virtually all these studies have been based on aggregate data; that is, they focused on average errors for places with particular size or growth rate characteristics. In this study, we take a different approach by investigating forecast accuracy using regression models based on data for individual places. Using decennial censu…
Population Aging, Disability and Housing Accessibility
The older population in many countries is large and growing rapidly, increasing the number of people with disabilities and driving up the need for accessible housing. In a previous study, the authors projected the number of households in the USA with at least one disabled resident and estimated the probability that a newly built single-family detached unit will house at least one disabled resident during its expected lifetime. This study extends …
Making the Housing Unit Method Work
Population Projections by Age for Florida and its Counties
Demography (22 obras) · Population (22 obras) · Demography (18 obras) · Geography (17 obras) · Mathematics (16 obras) · Econometrics (15 obras) · Statistics (15 obras) · Economics (13 obras) · demographic modeling and climate adaptation (12 obras) · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management (11 obras)