Hernan Winkler
Biographic Data
| ID | 3710224 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Hernan Winkler |
| GIVEN NAMES | Hernan |
| FAMILY NAME | Winkler |
| SIGNATURE | WINKLER H |
| AFFILIATIONS | World Bank |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-2980-5676 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 21 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 68 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 21 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2012 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2024 |
| H-INDEX | 3 |
Buffer or Bottleneck? Employment Exposure to Generative AI and the Digital Divide in Latin America
Empirical evidence on the potential impacts of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) is mostly focused on high-income countries. In contrast, little is known about the role of this technology on the future economic pathways of developing economies. This paper contributes to fill this gap by estimating the exposure of the Latin American labor market to GenAI. It provides detailed statistics of GenAI exposure between and within countries by le…
Exports and Income Inequality in Mexico
What is the effect of exports on local income inequality in developing countries? To respond to this question, we combine data on exports with a panel of welfare indicators for 2000 Mexican municipalities, and implement an instrumental variable approach to address endogeneity concerns. Our results show that a 10 per cent increase in the exports per worker reduces local income inequality, measured by the Gini coefficient, by 0.17 points (using a 0…
The welfare effects of mobile broadband internet
The Unintended Consequences of Deportations
Can repatriation inflows impact firm \n behavior in origin countries? This paper examines this \n question in the context of repatriation inflows from the \n United States and Mexico to El Salvador. The paper combines \n a rich longitudinal data set covering all formal firms in El \n Salvador with individual-level data on all registered \n repatriations from 2010 to 2017. The empirical strategy \n combines variation in the municipality of birth o…
Does the Internet Reduce Gender Gaps? The Case of Jordan
This article investigates the link between digital technologies and female labour outcomes in a country with one of the lowest female labour force participation (LFP) rates. It exploits the massive roll-out of mobile broadband technology in Jordan between 2010 and 2016 to identify the effect of internet adoption on LFP, internet job search, employment and unemployment. Using panel data at the individual level and an instrumental variable strategy…
Neither by Land Nor by Sea
Despite concerns that the COVID-19 economic collapse would torpedo international remittances, formal remittances to several developing countries ballooned early in the pandemic. This increase might, however, have reflected a shift from informal channels to formal ones rather than a change in actual flows. This paper employs Mexican data to explore this and finds that remittance channels did change. The rise in formal inflows was larger among muni…
Jobs' Amenability to Working from Home
The spread of COVID-19 and implementation of "social distancing" policies around the world have raised the question of how many jobs can be done at home. This paper uses skills surveys from 53 countries at varying levels of economic development to estimate jobs' amenability to working from home. The paper considers jobs' characteristics and uses internet access at home as an important determinant of working from home. The findings indicate that t…
Who on Earth can Work from Home
This paper presents new estimates of the share of jobs that can be performed from home. The analysis is based on the task content of occupations, their information and communications technology requirements, and the availability of internet access by country and income groupings. Globally, one of every five jobs can be performed from home. The ability to telework is correlated with income. In low-income countries, only one of every 26 jobs can be…
Jordan Jobs Diagnostic
Gender-Gender and Development Social Protections and Labor-Employment and Unemployment Social Protections and Labor-Labor Markets Social Protections and Labor-Skills Development and Labor Force Training Social Protections and Labor-Wages, Compensation & Benefits
Why Are the Elderly More Averse to Immigration When They Are More Likely to Benefit? Evidence across Countries
Using household surveys for 25 countries over a 12-year period, this paper investigates why the elderly are more averse to open immigration policies than their younger peers. We find that the negative correlation between age and pro-immigration attitudes is mostly explained by a cohort or generational change. In fact, once we control for year of birth, the correlation between age and pro-immigration attitudes is either positive or zero in most of…
How Does the Internet Affect Migration Decisions?
This article provides new evidence on the impact of the internet on migration decisions. I find that an increase in internet adoption among migrant-sending countries reduces the stock of migrants from these locations. The results are robust to a number of specifications, including an instrumental variable approach that addresses the endogeneity of internet adoption. The findings suggest that the internet may weaken the importance of push factors …
Income Inequality and Violent Crime
The goal of this paper is to examine the effect of inequality on crime rates in a unique context, Mexico's drug war. The analysis exploits an original dataset containing inequality and crime statistics on more than 2000 Mexican municipalities over a 20-year period. To uncover the causal effect of inequality on crime, we use an instrumental variable for the Gini coefficient that combines the initial income distribution at the municipality level wi…
Why are the Elderly more Averse to Immigration When They are More Likely to Benefit? Evidence across Countries
Using household surveys for 24 countries over a 10-year period, this paper investigates why the elderly are more averse to open immigration policies than their younger peers. The analysis finds that the negative correlation between age and pro-immigration attitudes is mostly explained by a cohort or generational change. In fact, once controlling for year of birth, the correlation between age and pro-immigration attitudes is either positive or zer…
Income inequality and violent crime
Income Inequality and Violent Crime
The relationship between income inequality and crime has attracted the interest of many researchers, but little convincing evidence exists on the causal effect of inequality on crime in developing countries. This paper estimates this effect in a unique context: Mexico's Drug War. The analysis takes advantage of a unique data set containing inequality and crime statistics for more than 2,000 Mexican municipalities covering a period of 20 years. Us…
Understanding Changes in Poverty
Understanding Changes in Poverty brings together different methods to decompose the contributions to poverty reduction. A simple approach quantifies the contribution of changes in demographics, employment, earnings, public transfers, and remittances to poverty reduction. A more complex approach quantifies the contributions to poverty reduction from changes in individual and household characteristics, including changes in the sectoral, occupationa…
Is Labor Income Responsible for Poverty Reduction? A Decomposition Approach
Demographics, labor income, public \n transfers, or remittances: Which factor contributes the most \n to observed reductions in poverty? Using counterfactual \n simulations, this paper accounts for the contribution labor \n income has made to the observed changes in poverty over the \n past decade for a set of 16 countries that have experienced \n substantial declines in poverty. In contrast to methods that \n focus on aggregate summary statistic…
The Effect of Rising Income Inequality on Taxation and Public Expenditures
The income distribution in many developed countries widened dramatically from 1970 to 2000. Some scholars argue that income inequality contributes to a host of social ills by undermining voters' willingness to support public expenditures. In contrast, we find that growing income inequality is associated with an expansion in government revenues and expenditures on a wide range of services in U.S. municipalities and school districts. Results are ro…
When Job Earnings Are Behind Poverty Reduction
Improvement in labor market conditions \n has been the main explanation behind many of the poverty \n success stories observed in the last decade, that is the \n primary conclusion of an analysis of changes in poverty by \n income source. Changes in labor earnings were the largest \n contributor to poverty reduction for a sample of 16 \n countries where poverty increased substantially. In 10 of \n these countries, labor income explained more than…
Decomposing Distributional Changes in Pakistan
This paper quantifies the contributions \n to distributional changes observed in Pakistan over the last \n decade. In contrast to methods that focus on aggregate \n summary statistics, the method adopted in this paper \n generates entire counterfactual distributions to account for \n the contributions of demographics, labor and non-labor \n incomes in explaining poverty reduction. The results show \n that the most important contributor was the gr…
What is behind the Decline in Poverty since 2000? Evidence from Bangladesh, Peru and Thailand
This paper quantifies the contributions of different factors to poverty reduction observed in Bangladesh, Peru and Thailand over the last decade. In contrast to methods that focus on aggregate summary statistics, the method adopted here generates entire counterfactual distributions to account for the contributions of demographics and income from labor and non-labor sources in explaining poverty reduction. The authors find that the most important …
Income inequality and violent crime
Why Are the Elderly More Averse to Immigration When They Are More Likely to Benefit? Evidence across Countries
Using household surveys for 25 countries over a 12-year period, this paper investigates why the elderly are more averse to open immigration policies than their younger peers. We find that the negative correlation between age and pro-immigration attitudes is mostly explained by a cohort or generational change. In fact, once we control for year of birth, the correlation between age and pro-immigration attitudes is either positive or zero in most of…
The welfare effects of mobile broadband internet
When Job Earnings Are Behind Poverty Reduction
Improvement in labor market conditions \n has been the main explanation behind many of the poverty \n success stories observed in the last decade, that is the \n primary conclusion of an analysis of changes in poverty by \n income source. Changes in labor earnings were the largest \n contributor to poverty reduction for a sample of 16 \n countries where poverty increased substantially. In 10 of \n these countries, labor income explained more than…
Decomposing Distributional Changes in Pakistan
This paper quantifies the contributions \n to distributional changes observed in Pakistan over the last \n decade. In contrast to methods that focus on aggregate \n summary statistics, the method adopted in this paper \n generates entire counterfactual distributions to account for \n the contributions of demographics, labor and non-labor \n incomes in explaining poverty reduction. The results show \n that the most important contributor was the gr…
What is behind the Decline in Poverty since 2000? Evidence from Bangladesh, Peru and Thailand
This paper quantifies the contributions of different factors to poverty reduction observed in Bangladesh, Peru and Thailand over the last decade. In contrast to methods that focus on aggregate summary statistics, the method adopted here generates entire counterfactual distributions to account for the contributions of demographics and income from labor and non-labor sources in explaining poverty reduction. The authors find that the most important …
Is Labor Income Responsible for Poverty Reduction? A Decomposition Approach
Demographics, labor income, public \n transfers, or remittances: Which factor contributes the most \n to observed reductions in poverty? Using counterfactual \n simulations, this paper accounts for the contribution labor \n income has made to the observed changes in poverty over the \n past decade for a set of 16 countries that have experienced \n substantial declines in poverty. In contrast to methods that \n focus on aggregate summary statistic…
The Effect of Rising Income Inequality on Taxation and Public Expenditures
The income distribution in many developed countries widened dramatically from 1970 to 2000. Some scholars argue that income inequality contributes to a host of social ills by undermining voters' willingness to support public expenditures. In contrast, we find that growing income inequality is associated with an expansion in government revenues and expenditures on a wide range of services in U.S. municipalities and school districts. Results are ro…
Income Inequality and Violent Crime
The relationship between income inequality and crime has attracted the interest of many researchers, but little convincing evidence exists on the causal effect of inequality on crime in developing countries. This paper estimates this effect in a unique context: Mexico's Drug War. The analysis takes advantage of a unique data set containing inequality and crime statistics for more than 2,000 Mexican municipalities covering a period of 20 years. Us…
Understanding Changes in Poverty
Understanding Changes in Poverty brings together different methods to decompose the contributions to poverty reduction. A simple approach quantifies the contribution of changes in demographics, employment, earnings, public transfers, and remittances to poverty reduction. A more complex approach quantifies the contributions to poverty reduction from changes in individual and household characteristics, including changes in the sectoral, occupationa…
How Does the Internet Affect Migration Decisions?
This article provides new evidence on the impact of the internet on migration decisions. I find that an increase in internet adoption among migrant-sending countries reduces the stock of migrants from these locations. The results are robust to a number of specifications, including an instrumental variable approach that addresses the endogeneity of internet adoption. The findings suggest that the internet may weaken the importance of push factors …
Income Inequality and Violent Crime
The goal of this paper is to examine the effect of inequality on crime rates in a unique context, Mexico's drug war. The analysis exploits an original dataset containing inequality and crime statistics on more than 2000 Mexican municipalities over a 20-year period. To uncover the causal effect of inequality on crime, we use an instrumental variable for the Gini coefficient that combines the initial income distribution at the municipality level wi…
Why are the Elderly more Averse to Immigration When They are More Likely to Benefit? Evidence across Countries
Using household surveys for 24 countries over a 10-year period, this paper investigates why the elderly are more averse to open immigration policies than their younger peers. The analysis finds that the negative correlation between age and pro-immigration attitudes is mostly explained by a cohort or generational change. In fact, once controlling for year of birth, the correlation between age and pro-immigration attitudes is either positive or zer…
Income inequality and violent crime
Why Are the Elderly More Averse to Immigration When They Are More Likely to Benefit? Evidence across Countries
Using household surveys for 25 countries over a 12-year period, this paper investigates why the elderly are more averse to open immigration policies than their younger peers. We find that the negative correlation between age and pro-immigration attitudes is mostly explained by a cohort or generational change. In fact, once we control for year of birth, the correlation between age and pro-immigration attitudes is either positive or zero in most of…
Jordan Jobs Diagnostic
Gender-Gender and Development Social Protections and Labor-Employment and Unemployment Social Protections and Labor-Labor Markets Social Protections and Labor-Skills Development and Labor Force Training Social Protections and Labor-Wages, Compensation & Benefits
Jobs' Amenability to Working from Home
The spread of COVID-19 and implementation of "social distancing" policies around the world have raised the question of how many jobs can be done at home. This paper uses skills surveys from 53 countries at varying levels of economic development to estimate jobs' amenability to working from home. The paper considers jobs' characteristics and uses internet access at home as an important determinant of working from home. The findings indicate that t…
Who on Earth can Work from Home
This paper presents new estimates of the share of jobs that can be performed from home. The analysis is based on the task content of occupations, their information and communications technology requirements, and the availability of internet access by country and income groupings. Globally, one of every five jobs can be performed from home. The ability to telework is correlated with income. In low-income countries, only one of every 26 jobs can be…
Does the Internet Reduce Gender Gaps? The Case of Jordan
This article investigates the link between digital technologies and female labour outcomes in a country with one of the lowest female labour force participation (LFP) rates. It exploits the massive roll-out of mobile broadband technology in Jordan between 2010 and 2016 to identify the effect of internet adoption on LFP, internet job search, employment and unemployment. Using panel data at the individual level and an instrumental variable strategy…
Neither by Land Nor by Sea
Despite concerns that the COVID-19 economic collapse would torpedo international remittances, formal remittances to several developing countries ballooned early in the pandemic. This increase might, however, have reflected a shift from informal channels to formal ones rather than a change in actual flows. This paper employs Mexican data to explore this and finds that remittance channels did change. The rise in formal inflows was larger among muni…
The Unintended Consequences of Deportations
Can repatriation inflows impact firm \n behavior in origin countries? This paper examines this \n question in the context of repatriation inflows from the \n United States and Mexico to El Salvador. The paper combines \n a rich longitudinal data set covering all formal firms in El \n Salvador with individual-level data on all registered \n repatriations from 2010 to 2017. The empirical strategy \n combines variation in the municipality of birth o…
Buffer or Bottleneck? Employment Exposure to Generative AI and the Digital Divide in Latin America
Empirical evidence on the potential impacts of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) is mostly focused on high-income countries. In contrast, little is known about the role of this technology on the future economic pathways of developing economies. This paper contributes to fill this gap by estimating the exposure of the Latin American labor market to GenAI. It provides detailed statistics of GenAI exposure between and within countries by le…
Exports and Income Inequality in Mexico
What is the effect of exports on local income inequality in developing countries? To respond to this question, we combine data on exports with a panel of welfare indicators for 2000 Mexican municipalities, and implement an instrumental variable approach to address endogeneity concerns. Our results show that a 10 per cent increase in the exports per worker reduces local income inequality, measured by the Gini coefficient, by 0.17 points (using a 0…
The welfare effects of mobile broadband internet
Economics (14 works) · Demographic economics (11 works) · Economic growth (8 works) · Political science (8 works) · Labour economics (7 works) · Computer Science (6 works) · Income, Poverty, and Inequality (6 works) · Migration and Labor Dynamics (6 works) · Poverty (6 works) · Economic inequality (5 works)