Rangan Gupta
Biographic Data
| ID | 3711845 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Rangan Gupta |
| GIVEN NAMES | Rangan |
| FAMILY NAME | Gupta |
| SIGNATURE | GUPTA R |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Pretoria |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-5002-3428 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 38 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 72 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 38 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2013 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 4 |
The Cambridge Handbook on the Economics of Terrorism
Since the turn of the century, few issues have shaped political debate and policy-making more than terrorism. As a result, there has been a huge increase in the amount of academic research devoted to investigating the causes and consequences of terrorism. The Cambridge Handbook on the Economics of Terrorism is the first to present a state-of-the art survey of the economics of terrorism. It adopts a rational-choice perspective according to which t…
Climate Shocks and Unemployment Claims
Using a US state–level climate risk measure and the panel local projections framework, this study analyzes both linear and asymmetric effects of climate shocks on unemployment claims. The results provide strong evidence that climate shocks significantly increase both initial and continuing claims, with the linear estimates showing a stronger impact on initial claims. In the nonlinear framework, where climate risk and economic condition indices ar…
Time-varying multilayer networks analysis of frequency connectedness in commodity futures markets
The time-varying impact of uncertainty shocks on the co-movement of regional housing prices of the United Kingdom
The housing markets in districts across the United Kingdom (UK) co-move over time. We use the dynamic factor model to decompose the co-movement in house prices of the smallest possible geographical unit into national, regional, and idiosyncratic factors. Using the Bayesian time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model, we study the dynamic impact of uncertainty shocks on synchronization in housing markets. We find that the estimated national factor …
Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States
We use random forests, a machine-learning technique, to formally examine the link between real gasoline prices and presidential approval ratings of the United States (US). Random forests make it possible to study this link in a completely data-driven way, such that nonlinearities in the data can easily be detected and a large number of control variables, in line with the extant literature, can be considered. Our empirical findings show that the l…
The Effects of Uncertainty on Economic Conditions Across US States: The Role of Climate Risks
We analyze the impact of uncertainty on the Economic Conditions Index (ECI) of the 50 US states in a panel data set‐up, over the weekly period of the 3rd week of April 1987 to the 4th week of March 2023. Using impulse response functions (IRFs) from a linear local projections (LP) model, we show that uncertainty, as captured by the stochastic volatility (SV) of the ECIs, negatively impacts ECI in a statistically significant manner. More importantl…
Political Geography and Stock Market Volatility: The Role of Political Alignment Across Sentiment Regimes
We study the nexus between political geography and stock market volatility by examining the interrelation between political geography and the predictive relation between the state‐ and aggregate‐level stock market volatility via recently constructed measures of political alignment. Using data for 1994–2023 and random forests, we show that the importance of the state‐level volatilities as drivers of aggregate volatility displays considerable varia…
Presidential Approval Ratings and Stock Market Performance in Latin America
This paper examines the time‐varying causality between presidential approval (PAR) and stock market performance, measured by stock returns and realised volatility, focussing on four prominent Latin American countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico, from 1990M01 to 2016M05. We use a time‐varying causality test, which is robust to structural breaks, to uncover a bidirectional causal relationship between PAR and stock market performance. Our r…
Political “Color” and the impact of climate risks on output growth: Evidence from a panel of US states
Modeling the presidential approval ratings of the United States using machine-learning: Does climate policy uncertainty matter
A note on climate change and growth dynamics
Climate change is, perhaps, the most important of challenges currently facing humankind, with the potential to have health and welfare implications by imposing a sizeable aggregate risk to the economy. Given this, and in the wake of an ever-burgeoning literature on the nexus between climate change and economic growth, we develop an overlapping generations endogenous growth model characterized by climate change, with the latter being specified as …
Does climate policy uncertainty affect tourism demand? Evidence from time-varying causality tests
This study examines whether climate policy uncertainty affects the propensity of people to travel. To do so, we employ the Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) index and US air-travel data to eight regional overseas destinations for the period 2000–2019. Using time-varying causality tests to deal with the structural breaks that exist in the relationship between CPU and US air travel, we find that CPU is a major determinant of air-travel demand to all…
Giant oil discoveries and conflicts
This study investigates the effects of oil discoveries on conflict. We propose that the effects from oil discoveries may differ depending on types of conflicts, mainly interstate versus intrastate. Using a measure for oil discoveries for a global panel of countries between 1970 and 2012, we find a positive association between oil discoveries and both conflict types, controlling for other conflict determinants and unobserved heterogeneity. However…
Uncertainty and tourism in Africa
Tourism growth is on the rise in Africa, and yet limited empirical evidence exists that explores the factors that drive this important contributor of economic growth on the continent. Previous literature focuses mainly on developed countries. This study weighs in on the recent debate on African tourism by providing evidence on the role that economic uncertainties have on tourist arrivals. Using panel data from 1996 to 2017, we find that economic …
Globalization, long memory, and real interest rate convergence: A historical perspective
Productivity and GDP: International evidence of persistence and trends over 130 years of data
Impact of housing price uncertainty on herding behavior: Evidence from UK’s regional housing markets
Time-varying influence of household debt on inequality in United Kingdom
Time-varying relationship between conventional and unconventional monetary policies and risk aversion: International evidence from time- and frequency-domains
Time-Varying Predictability of Labor Productivity on Inequality in United Kingdom
Persistence and cyclical dynamics of US and UK house prices: Evidence from over 150 years of data
This paper provides a new and unique look at the dynamics and persistence of historical house prices in the USA and the UK using fractional integration techniques not previously applied to housing markets. Unlike previous research, we consider two components of persistence of house prices: the component associated with the long-run trend and the component associated with the cycle. We find evidence of cyclical and long-run persistence in the UK h…
Oil shocks and directional predictability of macroeconomic uncertainties of developed economies: Evidence from high‐frequency data
Using high‐frequency (daily) data on macroeconomic uncertainties and the partial cross‐quantilogram approach, we examine the directional predictability of disentangled oil‐price shocks for the entire conditional distribution of uncertainties of five advanced economies (Canada, Euro Area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States). Our results show that oil‐demand, oil‐supply, and financial‐risk‐related shocks can predict the future path of…
Monetary policy, financial frictions and structural changes in Uganda: A Markov-switching DSGE approach
This paper considers the use of regime-switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models for monetary policy analysis \nand forecasting purposes. The objective is to determine whether \nor not the inclusion of these regime-switching features provide a \nmore accurate description of the economy in a particular low \nincome country. All of the models incorporate financial frictions \nthat are introduced through the activities of heterogeneous…
Forecasting changes of economic inequality: A boosting approach
We use a boosting algorithm to forecast changes in three income- and three consumption-based inequality measures. Unlike the existing literature, which basically deals with in-sample predictability, we analyze the role of large number of predictors in out-of-sample prediction of inequality growth. Further, deviating from the annual data-based literature on inequality, we study quarterly UK data covering the period from 1975Q1 to 2016Q1. We find t…
Time–frequency relationship between US inflation and inflation uncertainty: Evidence from historical data
We provide new evidence on the relationship between inflation and its uncertainty in the United States on an historical basis, covering the period from 1775 to 2014. First, we use a bounded approach for measuring inflation uncertainty, as proposed by Chan et al . (2013), and compare the results with the Stock and Watson (2007) and Chan (2015) methods. Second, we employ the wavelet methodology to analyze the comovements and causal effects between …
Forecasting accuracy evaluation of tourist arrivals
Ripple’ Effects in South African House Prices
This paper analyses the ‘ripple’ effect of house prices in large-, medium- and small-sized houses of five major metropolitan areas of South Africa—namely, Cape Town, Durban Unicity, Greater Johannesburg, Port Elizabeth/Uitenhage and Pretoria—based on available quarterly data covering the period of 1966:Q1 to 2010:Q1. Following the extant literature, the issue is contextualised as a unit root problem, with one expecting the ratios of metropolitan …
Comovement in Euro area housing prices: A fractional cointegration approach
This paper analyses comovement in housing prices across the Euro area. We use techniques based on the concepts of fractional integration and cointegration. Our results indicate that all the individual log-real price indices display orders of integration which are above one, implying long memory in their corresponding growth rates. Further, looking at the cointegration relationships, we observe that the series for the Euro area is cointegrated wit…
Is Economic Policy Uncertainty Related to Suicide Rates? Evidence from the United States
Causality Between Per Capita Real GDP and Income Inequality in the U.S: Evidence from a Wavelet Analysis
Dynamic and Asymmetric Response of Inequality to Income Volatility: The Case of the United Kingdom
Causal Relationship between Asset Prices and Output in the United States: Evidence from the State-Level Panel Granger Causality Test
Emirmahmutoglu F., Balcilar M., Apergis N., Simo-Kengne B. D., Chang T. and Gupta R. Causal relationship between asset prices and output in the United States: evidence from the state-level panel Granger causality test, Regional Studies. This paper investigates the causal relationship between asset prices and output across US states using a bootstrap panel Granger causality approach which allows not only for heterogeneity and cross-sectional depen…
Impact of housing price uncertainty on herding behavior: Evidence from UK’s regional housing markets
Oil shocks and directional predictability of macroeconomic uncertainties of developed economies: Evidence from high‐frequency data
Using high‐frequency (daily) data on macroeconomic uncertainties and the partial cross‐quantilogram approach, we examine the directional predictability of disentangled oil‐price shocks for the entire conditional distribution of uncertainties of five advanced economies (Canada, Euro Area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States). Our results show that oil‐demand, oil‐supply, and financial‐risk‐related shocks can predict the future path of…
Kuznets Curve for the US: A Reconsideration Using Cosummability
Persistence and cyclical dynamics of US and UK house prices: Evidence from over 150 years of data
This paper provides a new and unique look at the dynamics and persistence of historical house prices in the USA and the UK using fractional integration techniques not previously applied to housing markets. Unlike previous research, we consider two components of persistence of house prices: the component associated with the long-run trend and the component associated with the cycle. We find evidence of cyclical and long-run persistence in the UK h…
Forecasting changes of economic inequality: A boosting approach
We use a boosting algorithm to forecast changes in three income- and three consumption-based inequality measures. Unlike the existing literature, which basically deals with in-sample predictability, we analyze the role of large number of predictors in out-of-sample prediction of inequality growth. Further, deviating from the annual data-based literature on inequality, we study quarterly UK data covering the period from 1975Q1 to 2016Q1. We find t…
Partisan Conflict and Income Inequality in the United States: A Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Approach
Convergence of Health Care Expenditures Across the US States: A Reconsideration
Persistence, Mean-Reversion and Non-linearities in Infant Mortality Rates
The Impact of House Prices on Consumption in South Africa: Evidence from Provincial-Level Panel VARs
This paper provides an empirical analysis of the role of house prices in determining the dynamic behaviour of consumption in South Africa using a panel vector autoregression approach to provincial level panel data covering the period of 1996–2010. With the shocks being identified using the standard recursive identification scheme, we find that the response of consumption to house prices shock is positive, but short-lived. In addition, we find tha…
Ripple’ Effects in South African House Prices
This paper analyses the ‘ripple’ effect of house prices in large-, medium- and small-sized houses of five major metropolitan areas of South Africa—namely, Cape Town, Durban Unicity, Greater Johannesburg, Port Elizabeth/Uitenhage and Pretoria—based on available quarterly data covering the period of 1966:Q1 to 2010:Q1. Following the extant literature, the issue is contextualised as a unit root problem, with one expecting the ratios of metropolitan …
Comovement in Euro area housing prices: A fractional cointegration approach
This paper analyses comovement in housing prices across the Euro area. We use techniques based on the concepts of fractional integration and cointegration. Our results indicate that all the individual log-real price indices display orders of integration which are above one, implying long memory in their corresponding growth rates. Further, looking at the cointegration relationships, we observe that the series for the Euro area is cointegrated wit…
Causal Relationship between Asset Prices and Output in the United States: Evidence from the State-Level Panel Granger Causality Test
Emirmahmutoglu F., Balcilar M., Apergis N., Simo-Kengne B. D., Chang T. and Gupta R. Causal relationship between asset prices and output in the United States: evidence from the state-level panel Granger causality test, Regional Studies. This paper investigates the causal relationship between asset prices and output across US states using a bootstrap panel Granger causality approach which allows not only for heterogeneity and cross-sectional depen…
Are Health Care Expenditures and Personal Disposable Income Characterised by Asymmetric Behaviour? Evidence from US State-Level Data
Causality Between Per Capita Real GDP and Income Inequality in the U.S: Evidence from a Wavelet Analysis
Forecasting accuracy evaluation of tourist arrivals
Is Economic Policy Uncertainty Related to Suicide Rates? Evidence from the United States
Convergence of Health Care Expenditures Across the US States: A Reconsideration
Persistence, Mean-Reversion and Non-linearities in Infant Mortality Rates
Partisan Conflict and Income Inequality in the United States: A Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Approach
Forecasting changes of economic inequality: A boosting approach
We use a boosting algorithm to forecast changes in three income- and three consumption-based inequality measures. Unlike the existing literature, which basically deals with in-sample predictability, we analyze the role of large number of predictors in out-of-sample prediction of inequality growth. Further, deviating from the annual data-based literature on inequality, we study quarterly UK data covering the period from 1975Q1 to 2016Q1. We find t…
Time–frequency relationship between US inflation and inflation uncertainty: Evidence from historical data
We provide new evidence on the relationship between inflation and its uncertainty in the United States on an historical basis, covering the period from 1775 to 2014. First, we use a bounded approach for measuring inflation uncertainty, as proposed by Chan et al . (2013), and compare the results with the Stock and Watson (2007) and Chan (2015) methods. Second, we employ the wavelet methodology to analyze the comovements and causal effects between …
Dynamic and Asymmetric Response of Inequality to Income Volatility: The Case of the United Kingdom
Kuznets Curve for the US: A Reconsideration Using Cosummability
Monetary policy, financial frictions and structural changes in Uganda: A Markov-switching DSGE approach
This paper considers the use of regime-switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models for monetary policy analysis \nand forecasting purposes. The objective is to determine whether \nor not the inclusion of these regime-switching features provide a \nmore accurate description of the economy in a particular low \nincome country. All of the models incorporate financial frictions \nthat are introduced through the activities of heterogeneous…
Time-varying influence of household debt on inequality in United Kingdom
Time-varying relationship between conventional and unconventional monetary policies and risk aversion: International evidence from time- and frequency-domains
Time-Varying Predictability of Labor Productivity on Inequality in United Kingdom
Persistence and cyclical dynamics of US and UK house prices: Evidence from over 150 years of data
This paper provides a new and unique look at the dynamics and persistence of historical house prices in the USA and the UK using fractional integration techniques not previously applied to housing markets. Unlike previous research, we consider two components of persistence of house prices: the component associated with the long-run trend and the component associated with the cycle. We find evidence of cyclical and long-run persistence in the UK h…
Oil shocks and directional predictability of macroeconomic uncertainties of developed economies: Evidence from high‐frequency data
Using high‐frequency (daily) data on macroeconomic uncertainties and the partial cross‐quantilogram approach, we examine the directional predictability of disentangled oil‐price shocks for the entire conditional distribution of uncertainties of five advanced economies (Canada, Euro Area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States). Our results show that oil‐demand, oil‐supply, and financial‐risk‐related shocks can predict the future path of…
Uncertainty and tourism in Africa
Tourism growth is on the rise in Africa, and yet limited empirical evidence exists that explores the factors that drive this important contributor of economic growth on the continent. Previous literature focuses mainly on developed countries. This study weighs in on the recent debate on African tourism by providing evidence on the role that economic uncertainties have on tourist arrivals. Using panel data from 1996 to 2017, we find that economic …
Globalization, long memory, and real interest rate convergence: A historical perspective
Productivity and GDP: International evidence of persistence and trends over 130 years of data
Impact of housing price uncertainty on herding behavior: Evidence from UK’s regional housing markets
Economics (32 works) · Econometrics (26 works) · Market Dynamics and Volatility (16 works) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (16 works) · Mathematics (11 works) · Geography (9 works) · Macroeconomics (9 works) · Statistics (9 works) · Demographic economics (8 works) · Inequality (8 works)