Lukas Rudolph
Biographic Data
| ID | 3717397 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Lukas Rudolph |
| GIVEN NAMES | Lukas |
| FAMILY NAME | Rudolph |
| SIGNATURE | RUDOLPH L |
| AFFILIATIONS | LMU Klinikum |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-8977-4480 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 25 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 166 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 25 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2016 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 8 |
Is There a Partisan Divide in Citizens’ Preferences on Ukraine Support? Survey-Experimental Evidence from the US
Models of democratic responsiveness imply that consistent US foreign policy is furthered by bipartisan agreement on core US strategy. A broad literature indicates, however, that politics does not stop “at water’s edge,” suggesting relevant differences between more “dovish” Democratic-leaning and more “hawkish” Republican-leaning voters. I revisit this question for the case of US support strategies aiding Ukraine against the Russian invasion in 20…
Vignette Experiments Can Replicate Actual Behavioral Intent and Partly Actual Behavior: Panel Evidence on Environmental Migration from Bangladesh
Can survey experiments replicate real-world behavioral intent and behavior? I study a population in rural Bangladesh ( N ∼ 1600) along the banks of the Jamuna River, at risk of riverbank erosion and flooding. I compare their responses to questions about hypothetical movement behavior in vignette-experimental natural disaster scenarios (pre-monsoon, May–June 2021) with their migration intentions and actual migration 2–6 months later, following qua…
Environmental change and migration aspirations: Evidence from Bangladesh
1,594 surveyed households along Bangladesh’s Jamuna River, many facing flood and erosion impacts. • Riverbank erosion affectedness raises migration aspirations by 15 percentage points. • Erosion-affected household heads mainly aspire permanent migration, to rural areas. • Flood affectedness has no effect on migration aspirations six months after the event. The argument that environmental stress is an important driver of migration has gained renew…
The hidden universe of operationalizing natural experiments: Navigating extreme weather
Natural or quasi-experimental research designs are based on exogenous variation, oftentimes requiring operationalization before use in statistical tests. For this, researchers regularly lack clear theoretical guidance and need to make threshold decisions. We show for three types of shocks—extreme weather, immigration exposure, and commodity price changes—that this leads to a vast menu of equally plausible measurements, which are used unsystematic…
Can Individual MPs Damage Their Party’s Brand? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from a Public Procurement Corruption Scandal
How Relevant is Nimbyism to Citizens’ Support for the Large-Scale Deployment of Public Goods? Experimental Evidence from 5G Antenna Placement in Switzerland
Supplying society-wide public goods often depends on site-specific provision. Yet, (perceived) localized provision costs may at times outweigh localized individual benefits and thus lead to “not-in-my-backyard” (NIMBY-)opposition (e.g., when trying to set up energy, transportation, social, or, in our case, communication infrastructure). Accurate estimation of the level of NIMBY-opposition per se is analytically challenging because general attitud…
Are ideological and partisan affinities determining voters’ support of arms deliveries? Insights from a large-scale survey experiment in France and Germany
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine raised for many parties the question of how to position themselves in view of urgently requested arms deliveries. Since, the topic of arms trade, which has hitherto rarely been addressed, has become a heavily politicized and divisive issue and partly even polarized public opinion. A major prerequisite for parties’ position-taking is to anticipate how voters react to such arms transfers and, more specifically, …
Ordering Effects versus Cognitive Burden: How Should We Structure Attributes in Conjoint Experiments
Conjoint experiments offer a flexible way to elicit population preferences on complex decision tasks. We investigate whether we can improve respondents’ survey experience and, ultimately, choice quality by departing from the current recommendation of completely randomized conjoint attribute ordering. Such random ordering guarantees that potential bias from attribute order cancels out on average. However, in situations with many attributes, this m…
Deontological and consequentialist preferences towards arms exports: A comparative conjoint experiment in France and Germany
Despite fierce politicization in arms‐exporting democracies, we lack systematic research on mass public preferences on arms transfers. We propose that citizens either apply a deontologist (rejecting transfers categorically) or consequentialist (trading‐off economic, strategic and normative aspects) calculus of preference formation. Conducting population‐representative survey experiments () in Germany and France, two global top‐five major arms exp…
How does information affect vote choice in open-list PR systems? Evidence from a survey experiment mimicking real-world elections in Switzerland
List proportional representation with candidate voting can facilitate policy representation in multiple dimensions. However, candidates with deviating positions may not benefit if cues such as shared socio-demographics drive candidate choice instead. Does this use of cues reflect a lack of policy-related information or a preference for descriptive representation? We study this question in a real-world context, using a survey-embedded experiment t…
Factual information on the environmental impacts of consumption abroad increases citizens' problem awareness, but not support for mitigating such impacts
Vastly increased international trade over the past few decades has resulted in an ever larger geographical spread in the environmental impacts of local consumption. Particularly in the case of high-income countries, a large share of their total environmental footprint of local consumption now materializes in places far beyond the respective national border. On the presumption that democratic policy-makers should, and often do, act in line with pr…
Public Demand for Extraterritorial Environmental and Social Public Goods Provision
Vastly increased transnational business activity in recent decades has been accompanied by controversy over how to cope with its social and environmental impacts. The most prominent policy response thus far consists of international guidelines. We investigate to what extent and why citizens in a high-income country are willing to restrain companies to improve environmental and social conditions in other countries. Exploiting a real-world referend…
Environmental Concern Leads to Trade Skepticism on the Political Left and Right
The environmental implications of international trade appear to be associated with public backlash against trade liberalization and efforts at greening international trade. Because public support is essential to environmental and trade policy-making alike, we examine the trade–environment nexus from a public opinion perspective. We investigate whether negative attitudes toward trade are in fact fueled by concern over its environmental consequence…
Europe's migration crisis: Local contact and out‐group hostility
Does a large influx of asylum seekers in the local community lead to a backlash in public opinion towards foreign populations? We assess the effects of asylum seeker presence using original survey and macro‐level municipality data from Austria, exploiting exogenous elements of the placement of asylum seekers on the municipality level. Methodologically, we draw on entropy balancing for causal identification. Our findings are threefold. First, resp…
How Open Lists Undermine the Electoral Support of Cohesive Parties
How does ballot structure affect party choice? We argue that open lists undermine the electoral support of cohesive parties, to the benefit of internally divided parties. We conduct a survey-embedded experiment in the aftermath of the European migrant crisis, presenting German voters with real parties but fictitious politicians. A crossover design varies ballot type and exposure to candidate positions on immigration. We find that the internally d…
Citizen preferences on private-public co-regulation in environmental governance: Evidence from Switzerland
Environmental policy is touching on ever more aspects of corporate and individual behavior, and there is much debate over what combinations of top-down (government-imposed) and bottom-up (voluntary private sector) measures to use. In democratic societies, citizens’ preferences over such combinations are crucial because they shape the political mandates based on which policymakers act. We argue that policy designs that involve private-public co-re…
Voluntary business initiatives can reduce public pressure for regulating firm behaviour abroad
Almost all regulatory policy stops at the national border. Thus, when conducting business abroad, the behaviour of firms is regulated by their host, not their home country. Yet, international institutions have issued (non-binding) codes of conduct on social/environmental aspects of firm behaviour, and various high-income countries discuss how to improve extraterritorial firm behaviour – with high political contestation over the appropriate mix of…
Do Citizens use Sociodemographic Characteristics as Cues to Infer Candidate Issue Positions
In open‐list proportional representation systems, choosing candidates based on issue proximity can improve policy congruence. However, in practice, voters may not know enough about individual candidates to do so. Hence, we examine whether voters infer individual positions from cues provided on ballots, namely age and residence. Studying the Swiss parliamentary elections of 2019, we focus on environmental policy, both a very salient issue and feat…
Coattails and spillover-effects: Quasi-experimental evidence from concurrent executive and legislative elections
Concurrent elections are widely used to increase turnout. We theorize and show empirically how concurrency affects electoral outcomes. First, concurrency increases turnout and thereby the participation of peripheral voters. Second, in combined elections, one electoral arena affects the other. In our case of majoritarian executive elections concurrent to proportional representation (PR) legislative elections, the centripetal tendency of majoritari…
Cue-Taking, Satisficing, or Both? Quasi-experimental Evidence for Ballot Position Effects
Turning out to turn down the EU: The mobilisation of occasional voters and Brexit
Large amounts of occasional voters participated in the Brexit referendum. Did the increase in turnout affect the referendum outcome? For an answer, we exploit exogenous variation in voting costs, as large amounts of rainfall made voting more inconvenient in some areas. With an instrumental variable approach, we show that citizens whose voting benefits just surpassed costs under normal circumstances predominantly supported Leave. Hence, the turnou…
How to Increase Turnout in Low-Salience Elections: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Effect of Concurrent Second-Order Elections on Political Participation
Voter turnout in second-order elections is on a dramatic decline in many modern democracies. This article investigates how electoral participation can be substantially increased by holding multiple of these less important elections simultaneously. Leading to a relative decrease in voting costs, concurrent elections theoretically have economies of scale to the individual voter and thus should see turnout levels larger than those obtained in any st…
The build-up of coercive capacities: Arms imports and the outbreak of violent intrastate conflicts
Do governments' military build-ups foster the outbreak of intrastate violence? This article investigates the impact of governments' arms imports on the onset of intrastate conflicts. There is scant empirical research on the role of the external acquisition of coercive technologies, and even fewer studies explore the respective causal mechanisms of their consequences. We argue that the existing literature has not adequately considered the potentia…
Natural Disasters and Political Participation: Evidence from the 2002 and 2013 Floods in Germany
How do natural disasters affect electoral participation? The existing social science literature offers contradictory predictions. A considerable body of research in sociology and psychology suggests that traumatic events can inspire pro-social behaviour, which might increase turnout. Yet, political science has long held that even minor changes to participation costs of low benefit activities can lead to considerable drops in civic engagement. Con…
Holding Individual Representatives Accountable: The Role of Electoral Systems
Voters are reluctant to sanction representatives for individual misconduct if they have to balance candidate-level and party-level factors in their choice, but this trade-off is affected by the electoral system. Our general theoretical model explains why individual accountability can empirically occur in single-member district (SMD) systems but is expected under less restrictive conditions using open-list proportional representation (OLPR). The l…
Holding Individual Representatives Accountable: The Role of Electoral Systems
Voters are reluctant to sanction representatives for individual misconduct if they have to balance candidate-level and party-level factors in their choice, but this trade-off is affected by the electoral system. Our general theoretical model explains why individual accountability can empirically occur in single-member district (SMD) systems but is expected under less restrictive conditions using open-list proportional representation (OLPR). The l…
Voluntary business initiatives can reduce public pressure for regulating firm behaviour abroad
Almost all regulatory policy stops at the national border. Thus, when conducting business abroad, the behaviour of firms is regulated by their host, not their home country. Yet, international institutions have issued (non-binding) codes of conduct on social/environmental aspects of firm behaviour, and various high-income countries discuss how to improve extraterritorial firm behaviour – with high political contestation over the appropriate mix of…
Cue-Taking, Satisficing, or Both? Quasi-experimental Evidence for Ballot Position Effects
How to Increase Turnout in Low-Salience Elections: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Effect of Concurrent Second-Order Elections on Political Participation
Voter turnout in second-order elections is on a dramatic decline in many modern democracies. This article investigates how electoral participation can be substantially increased by holding multiple of these less important elections simultaneously. Leading to a relative decrease in voting costs, concurrent elections theoretically have economies of scale to the individual voter and thus should see turnout levels larger than those obtained in any st…
Citizen preferences on private-public co-regulation in environmental governance: Evidence from Switzerland
Environmental policy is touching on ever more aspects of corporate and individual behavior, and there is much debate over what combinations of top-down (government-imposed) and bottom-up (voluntary private sector) measures to use. In democratic societies, citizens’ preferences over such combinations are crucial because they shape the political mandates based on which policymakers act. We argue that policy designs that involve private-public co-re…
Natural Disasters and Political Participation: Evidence from the 2002 and 2013 Floods in Germany
How do natural disasters affect electoral participation? The existing social science literature offers contradictory predictions. A considerable body of research in sociology and psychology suggests that traumatic events can inspire pro-social behaviour, which might increase turnout. Yet, political science has long held that even minor changes to participation costs of low benefit activities can lead to considerable drops in civic engagement. Con…
Public Demand for Extraterritorial Environmental and Social Public Goods Provision
Vastly increased transnational business activity in recent decades has been accompanied by controversy over how to cope with its social and environmental impacts. The most prominent policy response thus far consists of international guidelines. We investigate to what extent and why citizens in a high-income country are willing to restrain companies to improve environmental and social conditions in other countries. Exploiting a real-world referend…
Europe's migration crisis: Local contact and out‐group hostility
Does a large influx of asylum seekers in the local community lead to a backlash in public opinion towards foreign populations? We assess the effects of asylum seeker presence using original survey and macro‐level municipality data from Austria, exploiting exogenous elements of the placement of asylum seekers on the municipality level. Methodologically, we draw on entropy balancing for causal identification. Our findings are threefold. First, resp…
How Open Lists Undermine the Electoral Support of Cohesive Parties
How does ballot structure affect party choice? We argue that open lists undermine the electoral support of cohesive parties, to the benefit of internally divided parties. We conduct a survey-embedded experiment in the aftermath of the European migrant crisis, presenting German voters with real parties but fictitious politicians. A crossover design varies ballot type and exposure to candidate positions on immigration. We find that the internally d…
Turning out to turn down the EU: The mobilisation of occasional voters and Brexit
Large amounts of occasional voters participated in the Brexit referendum. Did the increase in turnout affect the referendum outcome? For an answer, we exploit exogenous variation in voting costs, as large amounts of rainfall made voting more inconvenient in some areas. With an instrumental variable approach, we show that citizens whose voting benefits just surpassed costs under normal circumstances predominantly supported Leave. Hence, the turnou…
The build-up of coercive capacities: Arms imports and the outbreak of violent intrastate conflicts
Do governments' military build-ups foster the outbreak of intrastate violence? This article investigates the impact of governments' arms imports on the onset of intrastate conflicts. There is scant empirical research on the role of the external acquisition of coercive technologies, and even fewer studies explore the respective causal mechanisms of their consequences. We argue that the existing literature has not adequately considered the potentia…
Do Citizens use Sociodemographic Characteristics as Cues to Infer Candidate Issue Positions
In open‐list proportional representation systems, choosing candidates based on issue proximity can improve policy congruence. However, in practice, voters may not know enough about individual candidates to do so. Hence, we examine whether voters infer individual positions from cues provided on ballots, namely age and residence. Studying the Swiss parliamentary elections of 2019, we focus on environmental policy, both a very salient issue and feat…
The hidden universe of operationalizing natural experiments: Navigating extreme weather
Natural or quasi-experimental research designs are based on exogenous variation, oftentimes requiring operationalization before use in statistical tests. For this, researchers regularly lack clear theoretical guidance and need to make threshold decisions. We show for three types of shocks—extreme weather, immigration exposure, and commodity price changes—that this leads to a vast menu of equally plausible measurements, which are used unsystematic…
Ordering Effects versus Cognitive Burden: How Should We Structure Attributes in Conjoint Experiments
Conjoint experiments offer a flexible way to elicit population preferences on complex decision tasks. We investigate whether we can improve respondents’ survey experience and, ultimately, choice quality by departing from the current recommendation of completely randomized conjoint attribute ordering. Such random ordering guarantees that potential bias from attribute order cancels out on average. However, in situations with many attributes, this m…
Deontological and consequentialist preferences towards arms exports: A comparative conjoint experiment in France and Germany
Despite fierce politicization in arms‐exporting democracies, we lack systematic research on mass public preferences on arms transfers. We propose that citizens either apply a deontologist (rejecting transfers categorically) or consequentialist (trading‐off economic, strategic and normative aspects) calculus of preference formation. Conducting population‐representative survey experiments () in Germany and France, two global top‐five major arms exp…
Environmental Concern Leads to Trade Skepticism on the Political Left and Right
The environmental implications of international trade appear to be associated with public backlash against trade liberalization and efforts at greening international trade. Because public support is essential to environmental and trade policy-making alike, we examine the trade–environment nexus from a public opinion perspective. We investigate whether negative attitudes toward trade are in fact fueled by concern over its environmental consequence…
Are ideological and partisan affinities determining voters’ support of arms deliveries? Insights from a large-scale survey experiment in France and Germany
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine raised for many parties the question of how to position themselves in view of urgently requested arms deliveries. Since, the topic of arms trade, which has hitherto rarely been addressed, has become a heavily politicized and divisive issue and partly even polarized public opinion. A major prerequisite for parties’ position-taking is to anticipate how voters react to such arms transfers and, more specifically, …
Factual information on the environmental impacts of consumption abroad increases citizens' problem awareness, but not support for mitigating such impacts
Vastly increased international trade over the past few decades has resulted in an ever larger geographical spread in the environmental impacts of local consumption. Particularly in the case of high-income countries, a large share of their total environmental footprint of local consumption now materializes in places far beyond the respective national border. On the presumption that democratic policy-makers should, and often do, act in line with pr…
Environmental change and migration aspirations: Evidence from Bangladesh
1,594 surveyed households along Bangladesh’s Jamuna River, many facing flood and erosion impacts. • Riverbank erosion affectedness raises migration aspirations by 15 percentage points. • Erosion-affected household heads mainly aspire permanent migration, to rural areas. • Flood affectedness has no effect on migration aspirations six months after the event. The argument that environmental stress is an important driver of migration has gained renew…
Can Individual MPs Damage Their Party’s Brand? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from a Public Procurement Corruption Scandal
Coattails and spillover-effects: Quasi-experimental evidence from concurrent executive and legislative elections
Concurrent elections are widely used to increase turnout. We theorize and show empirically how concurrency affects electoral outcomes. First, concurrency increases turnout and thereby the participation of peripheral voters. Second, in combined elections, one electoral arena affects the other. In our case of majoritarian executive elections concurrent to proportional representation (PR) legislative elections, the centripetal tendency of majoritari…
How does information affect vote choice in open-list PR systems? Evidence from a survey experiment mimicking real-world elections in Switzerland
List proportional representation with candidate voting can facilitate policy representation in multiple dimensions. However, candidates with deviating positions may not benefit if cues such as shared socio-demographics drive candidate choice instead. Does this use of cues reflect a lack of policy-related information or a preference for descriptive representation? We study this question in a real-world context, using a survey-embedded experiment t…
Holding Individual Representatives Accountable: The Role of Electoral Systems
Voters are reluctant to sanction representatives for individual misconduct if they have to balance candidate-level and party-level factors in their choice, but this trade-off is affected by the electoral system. Our general theoretical model explains why individual accountability can empirically occur in single-member district (SMD) systems but is expected under less restrictive conditions using open-list proportional representation (OLPR). The l…
Natural Disasters and Political Participation: Evidence from the 2002 and 2013 Floods in Germany
How do natural disasters affect electoral participation? The existing social science literature offers contradictory predictions. A considerable body of research in sociology and psychology suggests that traumatic events can inspire pro-social behaviour, which might increase turnout. Yet, political science has long held that even minor changes to participation costs of low benefit activities can lead to considerable drops in civic engagement. Con…
How to Increase Turnout in Low-Salience Elections: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Effect of Concurrent Second-Order Elections on Political Participation
Voter turnout in second-order elections is on a dramatic decline in many modern democracies. This article investigates how electoral participation can be substantially increased by holding multiple of these less important elections simultaneously. Leading to a relative decrease in voting costs, concurrent elections theoretically have economies of scale to the individual voter and thus should see turnout levels larger than those obtained in any st…
The build-up of coercive capacities: Arms imports and the outbreak of violent intrastate conflicts
Do governments' military build-ups foster the outbreak of intrastate violence? This article investigates the impact of governments' arms imports on the onset of intrastate conflicts. There is scant empirical research on the role of the external acquisition of coercive technologies, and even fewer studies explore the respective causal mechanisms of their consequences. We argue that the existing literature has not adequately considered the potentia…
Cue-Taking, Satisficing, or Both? Quasi-experimental Evidence for Ballot Position Effects
Turning out to turn down the EU: The mobilisation of occasional voters and Brexit
Large amounts of occasional voters participated in the Brexit referendum. Did the increase in turnout affect the referendum outcome? For an answer, we exploit exogenous variation in voting costs, as large amounts of rainfall made voting more inconvenient in some areas. With an instrumental variable approach, we show that citizens whose voting benefits just surpassed costs under normal circumstances predominantly supported Leave. Hence, the turnou…
Citizen preferences on private-public co-regulation in environmental governance: Evidence from Switzerland
Environmental policy is touching on ever more aspects of corporate and individual behavior, and there is much debate over what combinations of top-down (government-imposed) and bottom-up (voluntary private sector) measures to use. In democratic societies, citizens’ preferences over such combinations are crucial because they shape the political mandates based on which policymakers act. We argue that policy designs that involve private-public co-re…
Voluntary business initiatives can reduce public pressure for regulating firm behaviour abroad
Almost all regulatory policy stops at the national border. Thus, when conducting business abroad, the behaviour of firms is regulated by their host, not their home country. Yet, international institutions have issued (non-binding) codes of conduct on social/environmental aspects of firm behaviour, and various high-income countries discuss how to improve extraterritorial firm behaviour – with high political contestation over the appropriate mix of…
Do Citizens use Sociodemographic Characteristics as Cues to Infer Candidate Issue Positions
In open‐list proportional representation systems, choosing candidates based on issue proximity can improve policy congruence. However, in practice, voters may not know enough about individual candidates to do so. Hence, we examine whether voters infer individual positions from cues provided on ballots, namely age and residence. Studying the Swiss parliamentary elections of 2019, we focus on environmental policy, both a very salient issue and feat…
Coattails and spillover-effects: Quasi-experimental evidence from concurrent executive and legislative elections
Concurrent elections are widely used to increase turnout. We theorize and show empirically how concurrency affects electoral outcomes. First, concurrency increases turnout and thereby the participation of peripheral voters. Second, in combined elections, one electoral arena affects the other. In our case of majoritarian executive elections concurrent to proportional representation (PR) legislative elections, the centripetal tendency of majoritari…
Environmental Concern Leads to Trade Skepticism on the Political Left and Right
The environmental implications of international trade appear to be associated with public backlash against trade liberalization and efforts at greening international trade. Because public support is essential to environmental and trade policy-making alike, we examine the trade–environment nexus from a public opinion perspective. We investigate whether negative attitudes toward trade are in fact fueled by concern over its environmental consequence…
Europe's migration crisis: Local contact and out‐group hostility
Does a large influx of asylum seekers in the local community lead to a backlash in public opinion towards foreign populations? We assess the effects of asylum seeker presence using original survey and macro‐level municipality data from Austria, exploiting exogenous elements of the placement of asylum seekers on the municipality level. Methodologically, we draw on entropy balancing for causal identification. Our findings are threefold. First, resp…
How Open Lists Undermine the Electoral Support of Cohesive Parties
How does ballot structure affect party choice? We argue that open lists undermine the electoral support of cohesive parties, to the benefit of internally divided parties. We conduct a survey-embedded experiment in the aftermath of the European migrant crisis, presenting German voters with real parties but fictitious politicians. A crossover design varies ballot type and exposure to candidate positions on immigration. We find that the internally d…
Factual information on the environmental impacts of consumption abroad increases citizens' problem awareness, but not support for mitigating such impacts
Vastly increased international trade over the past few decades has resulted in an ever larger geographical spread in the environmental impacts of local consumption. Particularly in the case of high-income countries, a large share of their total environmental footprint of local consumption now materializes in places far beyond the respective national border. On the presumption that democratic policy-makers should, and often do, act in line with pr…
Public Demand for Extraterritorial Environmental and Social Public Goods Provision
Vastly increased transnational business activity in recent decades has been accompanied by controversy over how to cope with its social and environmental impacts. The most prominent policy response thus far consists of international guidelines. We investigate to what extent and why citizens in a high-income country are willing to restrain companies to improve environmental and social conditions in other countries. Exploiting a real-world referend…
Ordering Effects versus Cognitive Burden: How Should We Structure Attributes in Conjoint Experiments
Conjoint experiments offer a flexible way to elicit population preferences on complex decision tasks. We investigate whether we can improve respondents’ survey experience and, ultimately, choice quality by departing from the current recommendation of completely randomized conjoint attribute ordering. Such random ordering guarantees that potential bias from attribute order cancels out on average. However, in situations with many attributes, this m…
Deontological and consequentialist preferences towards arms exports: A comparative conjoint experiment in France and Germany
Despite fierce politicization in arms‐exporting democracies, we lack systematic research on mass public preferences on arms transfers. We propose that citizens either apply a deontologist (rejecting transfers categorically) or consequentialist (trading‐off economic, strategic and normative aspects) calculus of preference formation. Conducting population‐representative survey experiments () in Germany and France, two global top‐five major arms exp…
How does information affect vote choice in open-list PR systems? Evidence from a survey experiment mimicking real-world elections in Switzerland
List proportional representation with candidate voting can facilitate policy representation in multiple dimensions. However, candidates with deviating positions may not benefit if cues such as shared socio-demographics drive candidate choice instead. Does this use of cues reflect a lack of policy-related information or a preference for descriptive representation? We study this question in a real-world context, using a survey-embedded experiment t…
Environmental change and migration aspirations: Evidence from Bangladesh
1,594 surveyed households along Bangladesh’s Jamuna River, many facing flood and erosion impacts. • Riverbank erosion affectedness raises migration aspirations by 15 percentage points. • Erosion-affected household heads mainly aspire permanent migration, to rural areas. • Flood affectedness has no effect on migration aspirations six months after the event. The argument that environmental stress is an important driver of migration has gained renew…
The hidden universe of operationalizing natural experiments: Navigating extreme weather
Natural or quasi-experimental research designs are based on exogenous variation, oftentimes requiring operationalization before use in statistical tests. For this, researchers regularly lack clear theoretical guidance and need to make threshold decisions. We show for three types of shocks—extreme weather, immigration exposure, and commodity price changes—that this leads to a vast menu of equally plausible measurements, which are used unsystematic…
Can Individual MPs Damage Their Party’s Brand? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from a Public Procurement Corruption Scandal
How Relevant is Nimbyism to Citizens’ Support for the Large-Scale Deployment of Public Goods? Experimental Evidence from 5G Antenna Placement in Switzerland
Supplying society-wide public goods often depends on site-specific provision. Yet, (perceived) localized provision costs may at times outweigh localized individual benefits and thus lead to “not-in-my-backyard” (NIMBY-)opposition (e.g., when trying to set up energy, transportation, social, or, in our case, communication infrastructure). Accurate estimation of the level of NIMBY-opposition per se is analytically challenging because general attitud…
Are ideological and partisan affinities determining voters’ support of arms deliveries? Insights from a large-scale survey experiment in France and Germany
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine raised for many parties the question of how to position themselves in view of urgently requested arms deliveries. Since, the topic of arms trade, which has hitherto rarely been addressed, has become a heavily politicized and divisive issue and partly even polarized public opinion. A major prerequisite for parties’ position-taking is to anticipate how voters react to such arms transfers and, more specifically, …
Is There a Partisan Divide in Citizens’ Preferences on Ukraine Support? Survey-Experimental Evidence from the US
Models of democratic responsiveness imply that consistent US foreign policy is furthered by bipartisan agreement on core US strategy. A broad literature indicates, however, that politics does not stop “at water’s edge,” suggesting relevant differences between more “dovish” Democratic-leaning and more “hawkish” Republican-leaning voters. I revisit this question for the case of US support strategies aiding Ukraine against the Russian invasion in 20…
Vignette Experiments Can Replicate Actual Behavioral Intent and Partly Actual Behavior: Panel Evidence on Environmental Migration from Bangladesh
Can survey experiments replicate real-world behavioral intent and behavior? I study a population in rural Bangladesh ( N ∼ 1600) along the banks of the Jamuna River, at risk of riverbank erosion and flooding. I compare their responses to questions about hypothetical movement behavior in vignette-experimental natural disaster scenarios (pre-monsoon, May–June 2021) with their migration intentions and actual migration 2–6 months later, following qua…
Economics (21 works) · Political science (18 works) · Law (14 works) · Politics (14 works) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (12 works) · Law (10 works) · Voting (8 works) · Business (6 works) · Geography (6 works) · Microeconomics (6 works)