Santiago Olivella
Biographic Data
| ID | 3717462 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Santiago Olivella |
| GIVEN NAMES | Santiago |
| FAMILY NAME | Olivella |
| SIGNATURE | OLIVELLA S |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 16 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 252 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 16 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2006 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 8 |
A Statistical Model of Bipartite Networks
Many networks in political and social research are bipartite, connecting two distinct node types. A common example is cosponsorship networks, where legislators are linked through the bills they support. However, most bipartite network analyses in political science rely on statistical models fitted to a “projected” unipartite network. This approach can lead to aggregation bias and an artificially high degree of clustering, invalidating the study o…
A Nonparametric Bayesian Model for Detecting Differential Item Functioning
A common approach when studying the quality of representation involves comparing the latent preferences of voters and legislators, commonly obtained by fitting an item response theory (IRT) model to a common set of stimuli. Despite being exposed to the same stimuli, voters and legislators may not share a common understanding of how these stimuli map onto their latent preferences, leading to differential item functioning (DIF) and incomparability …
Recalibration of Predicted Probabilities Using the “Logit Shift
The output of predictive models is routinely recalibrated by reconciling low-level predictions with known quantities defined at higher levels of aggregation. For example, models predicting vote probabilities at the individual level in U.S. elections can be adjusted so that their aggregation matches the observed vote totals in each county, thus producing better-calibrated predictions. In this research note, we provide theoretical grounding for one…
Tree‐Based Models for Political Science Data
Political scientists often find themselves analyzing data sets with a large number of observations, a large number of variables, or both. Yet, traditional statistical techniques fail to take full advantage of the opportunities inherent in “big data,” as they are too rigid to recover nonlinearities and do not facilitate the easy exploration of interactions in high‐dimensional data sets. In this article, we introduce a family of tree‐based nonparam…
The conditional effect of conspiracy thinking on attitudes toward climate change
Even though climate scientists are nearly unanimous that climate change is real and manmade, about 40% of Americans reject the scientific consensus. Why? The largest contributing factor is partisanship; however, recent studies argue that underlying conspiracy thinking exerts a positive, linear effect on climate change denial. In this article, we reexamine the effect of conspiracy thinking on climate change attitudes by accounting for the various …
And keep your enemies closer
An Informed Forensics Approach to Detecting Vote Irregularities
Electoral forensics involves examining election results for anomalies to efficiently identify patterns indicative of electoral irregularities. However, there is disagreement about which, if any, forensics tool is most effective at identifying fraud, and there is no method for integrating multiple tools. Moreover, forensic efforts have failed to systematically take advantage of country-specific details that might aid in diagnosing fraud. We deploy…
Electoral strategy in geographic space
(Where) Do Campaigns Matter? The Impact of National Party Convention Location
The quadrennial presidential nominating conventions are the biggest campaign events of the election cycle. Previous studies find that conventions significantly impact national-level candidate preferences; however, scholars have not yet specified the effects that such large campaign events have on residents of the host areas. As fairly uniform and one-sided interventions across years and parties, the conventions offer an opportunity for a cross ti…
Legislative Effects of Electoral Mandates
Data has been taken from the Hungarian National Assembly, where the mandate type (single member district (SMD) vs. party list or proportional representation (PR)) changes for a number of legislators each term, to explore whether and how such changes lead to changes in legislators’ voting behavior. When the electoral system under which a legislator was elected changes from PR to SMD, then the rate at which the legislator defects against the party …
Elections as instruments for punishing bad representatives and selecting good ones
Party-System Nationalization and the Scope of Public Policy
Party-system nationalization is supposed to result in the provision of nationally focused policy, including spending priorities with widespread benefits. Conversely, democracies characterized by parties with geographically narrower patterns of support are suspected of parochial policies, including targetable spending. The authors show that party-system nationalization alone is not sufficient to generate national benefits. In addition, governing p…
Vote-earning strategies in flexible list systems
Electoral contexts that impede voter coordination
Del rigor en la ciencia política
During the first semester of 2006, political science students from the University of the Andes held their second symposium. One of the papers presented and its corresponding critique made by one of the department’s professors is here transcribed. While the student maintains that a dichotomy exists in the choice of simplification over complexity in the analysis of social phenomena, the professor argues from an interpretative perspective, that the …
Sobrevivirá la coalición de Uribe
En el Repositorio Institucional Séneca están depositados materiales en formato digital fruto de la producción científica o académica, de esta manera permite almacenar, difundir y preservar información de vital importancia
Vote-earning strategies in flexible list systems
Electoral contexts that impede voter coordination
Tree‐Based Models for Political Science Data
Political scientists often find themselves analyzing data sets with a large number of observations, a large number of variables, or both. Yet, traditional statistical techniques fail to take full advantage of the opportunities inherent in “big data,” as they are too rigid to recover nonlinearities and do not facilitate the easy exploration of interactions in high‐dimensional data sets. In this article, we introduce a family of tree‐based nonparam…
Legislative Effects of Electoral Mandates
Data has been taken from the Hungarian National Assembly, where the mandate type (single member district (SMD) vs. party list or proportional representation (PR)) changes for a number of legislators each term, to explore whether and how such changes lead to changes in legislators’ voting behavior. When the electoral system under which a legislator was elected changes from PR to SMD, then the rate at which the legislator defects against the party …
Party-System Nationalization and the Scope of Public Policy
Party-system nationalization is supposed to result in the provision of nationally focused policy, including spending priorities with widespread benefits. Conversely, democracies characterized by parties with geographically narrower patterns of support are suspected of parochial policies, including targetable spending. The authors show that party-system nationalization alone is not sufficient to generate national benefits. In addition, governing p…
Elections as instruments for punishing bad representatives and selecting good ones
The conditional effect of conspiracy thinking on attitudes toward climate change
Even though climate scientists are nearly unanimous that climate change is real and manmade, about 40% of Americans reject the scientific consensus. Why? The largest contributing factor is partisanship; however, recent studies argue that underlying conspiracy thinking exerts a positive, linear effect on climate change denial. In this article, we reexamine the effect of conspiracy thinking on climate change attitudes by accounting for the various …
An Informed Forensics Approach to Detecting Vote Irregularities
Electoral forensics involves examining election results for anomalies to efficiently identify patterns indicative of electoral irregularities. However, there is disagreement about which, if any, forensics tool is most effective at identifying fraud, and there is no method for integrating multiple tools. Moreover, forensic efforts have failed to systematically take advantage of country-specific details that might aid in diagnosing fraud. We deploy…
Electoral strategy in geographic space
And keep your enemies closer
(Where) Do Campaigns Matter? The Impact of National Party Convention Location
The quadrennial presidential nominating conventions are the biggest campaign events of the election cycle. Previous studies find that conventions significantly impact national-level candidate preferences; however, scholars have not yet specified the effects that such large campaign events have on residents of the host areas. As fairly uniform and one-sided interventions across years and parties, the conventions offer an opportunity for a cross ti…
Recalibration of Predicted Probabilities Using the “Logit Shift
The output of predictive models is routinely recalibrated by reconciling low-level predictions with known quantities defined at higher levels of aggregation. For example, models predicting vote probabilities at the individual level in U.S. elections can be adjusted so that their aggregation matches the observed vote totals in each county, thus producing better-calibrated predictions. In this research note, we provide theoretical grounding for one…
Sobrevivirá la coalición de Uribe
En el Repositorio Institucional Séneca están depositados materiales en formato digital fruto de la producción científica o académica, de esta manera permite almacenar, difundir y preservar información de vital importancia
Del rigor en la ciencia política
During the first semester of 2006, political science students from the University of the Andes held their second symposium. One of the papers presented and its corresponding critique made by one of the department’s professors is here transcribed. While the student maintains that a dichotomy exists in the choice of simplification over complexity in the analysis of social phenomena, the professor argues from an interpretative perspective, that the …
Electoral contexts that impede voter coordination
Party-System Nationalization and the Scope of Public Policy
Party-system nationalization is supposed to result in the provision of nationally focused policy, including spending priorities with widespread benefits. Conversely, democracies characterized by parties with geographically narrower patterns of support are suspected of parochial policies, including targetable spending. The authors show that party-system nationalization alone is not sufficient to generate national benefits. In addition, governing p…
Vote-earning strategies in flexible list systems
(Where) Do Campaigns Matter? The Impact of National Party Convention Location
The quadrennial presidential nominating conventions are the biggest campaign events of the election cycle. Previous studies find that conventions significantly impact national-level candidate preferences; however, scholars have not yet specified the effects that such large campaign events have on residents of the host areas. As fairly uniform and one-sided interventions across years and parties, the conventions offer an opportunity for a cross ti…
Legislative Effects of Electoral Mandates
Data has been taken from the Hungarian National Assembly, where the mandate type (single member district (SMD) vs. party list or proportional representation (PR)) changes for a number of legislators each term, to explore whether and how such changes lead to changes in legislators’ voting behavior. When the electoral system under which a legislator was elected changes from PR to SMD, then the rate at which the legislator defects against the party …
Elections as instruments for punishing bad representatives and selecting good ones
An Informed Forensics Approach to Detecting Vote Irregularities
Electoral forensics involves examining election results for anomalies to efficiently identify patterns indicative of electoral irregularities. However, there is disagreement about which, if any, forensics tool is most effective at identifying fraud, and there is no method for integrating multiple tools. Moreover, forensic efforts have failed to systematically take advantage of country-specific details that might aid in diagnosing fraud. We deploy…
Electoral strategy in geographic space
The conditional effect of conspiracy thinking on attitudes toward climate change
Even though climate scientists are nearly unanimous that climate change is real and manmade, about 40% of Americans reject the scientific consensus. Why? The largest contributing factor is partisanship; however, recent studies argue that underlying conspiracy thinking exerts a positive, linear effect on climate change denial. In this article, we reexamine the effect of conspiracy thinking on climate change attitudes by accounting for the various …
And keep your enemies closer
Tree‐Based Models for Political Science Data
Political scientists often find themselves analyzing data sets with a large number of observations, a large number of variables, or both. Yet, traditional statistical techniques fail to take full advantage of the opportunities inherent in “big data,” as they are too rigid to recover nonlinearities and do not facilitate the easy exploration of interactions in high‐dimensional data sets. In this article, we introduce a family of tree‐based nonparam…
A Nonparametric Bayesian Model for Detecting Differential Item Functioning
A common approach when studying the quality of representation involves comparing the latent preferences of voters and legislators, commonly obtained by fitting an item response theory (IRT) model to a common set of stimuli. Despite being exposed to the same stimuli, voters and legislators may not share a common understanding of how these stimuli map onto their latent preferences, leading to differential item functioning (DIF) and incomparability …
Recalibration of Predicted Probabilities Using the “Logit Shift
The output of predictive models is routinely recalibrated by reconciling low-level predictions with known quantities defined at higher levels of aggregation. For example, models predicting vote probabilities at the individual level in U.S. elections can be adjusted so that their aggregation matches the observed vote totals in each county, thus producing better-calibrated predictions. In this research note, we provide theoretical grounding for one…
A Statistical Model of Bipartite Networks
Many networks in political and social research are bipartite, connecting two distinct node types. A common example is cosponsorship networks, where legislators are linked through the bills they support. However, most bipartite network analyses in political science rely on statistical models fitted to a “projected” unipartite network. This approach can lead to aggregation bias and an artificially high degree of clustering, invalidating the study o…
Electoral Systems and Political Participation (12 works) · Political science (12 works) · Law (9 works) · Law (9 works) · Politics (8 works) · Economics (7 works) · Computer Science (6 works) · Media Influence and Politics (6 works) · Business (4 works) · Econometrics (4 works)