Alan M Taylor
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 3744772 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Alan M Taylor |
| NOMBRES | Alan M |
| APELLIDO | Taylor |
| FIRMA | TAYLOR A M |
| AFILIACIONES | University of California, Davis, NBER, and CEPR |
| VERIFICADO | No |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 40 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 171 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 37 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 3 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 1992 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 8 |
A Local Projections Approach to Difference‐in‐Differences
We propose a local projections (LPs)‐based difference‐in‐differences (DiD) approach that subsumes many of the recent solutions proposed in the literature to address possible biases arising from negative weighting. We combine LPs with a flexible “clean control” condition to define appropriate sets of treated and control units. Our proposed LP‐DiD estimator can be implemented with various weighting and normalization schemes for different target est…
The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
We document that the real effects of monetary shocks last for over a decade. Our approach relies on (1) identification of exogenous and non-systematic monetary shocks using the trilemma of international finance; (2) merged data from two new international historical cross-country databases; and (3) econometric methods robust to long-horizon inconsistent estimates. Notably, the capital stock and total factor productivity (TFP) exhibit greater hyste…
Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
What are the medium- to long-term effects of pandemics? Do they differ from other economic disasters? We study major pandemics using rates of return on assets stretching back to the fourteenth century. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of pandemics persist for decades, with rates of return substantially depressed. The responses are in stark contrast to what happens after wars. Our findings also accord with wage and output responses, using m…
Trade and Uncertainty
We offer a new explanation as to why international trade is so volatile in response to economic shocks. Our approach combines the idea of uncertainty shocks with international trade. Firms order inputs from home and foreign suppliers. In response to an uncertainty shock firms disproportionately cut orders of foreign inputs due to higher fixed costs. In the aggregate, this leads to a bigger contraction in international trade flows than in domestic…
The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015
What is the aggregate real rate of return in the economy? Is it higher than the growth rate of the economy and, if so, by how much? Is there a tendency for returns to fall in the long run? Which particular assets have the highest long-run returns? We answer these questions on the basis of a new and comprehensive data set for all major asset classes, including housing. The annual data on total returns for equity, housing, bonds, and bills cover 16…
Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts
International Monetary Relations
In this essay, we highlight the interactions of the international monetary system with financial conditions, not just with the output, inflation, and balance of payments goals usually discussed. We review how financial conditions and outright financial crises have posed difficulties for each of the main international monetary systems in the last 150 years or so: the gold standard, the interwar period, the Bretton Woods system, and the current sys…
The great mortgaging
This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets doubled in the course of the twentieth century, driven by a sharp rise of mortgage lending to households. Household debt to asset ratios have risen substantially in many countries. Financial stability risks have been increasi…
Meta-Analysis and Computer-Mediated Communication
Because of the use of human participants and differing contextual variables, research in second language acquisition often produces conflicting results, leaving practitioners confused and unsure of the effectiveness of specific treatments. This article provides insight into a recent seminal meta-analysis on the effectiveness of computer-mediated communication, providing further statistical evidence of the importance of its results. The significan…
The Time for Austerity
Journal Article The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy Get access Òscar Jordà, Òscar Jordà Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and University of California, Davis Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Alan M. Taylor Alan M. Taylor University of California, Davis, NBER, and CEPR Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journa…
The growing dependence of Britain on trade during the Industrial Revolution
Many previous studies of the role of trade during the British Industrial Revolution have found little or no role for trade in explaining British living standards or growth rates. We construct a three-region model of the world in which Britain trades with North America and the Rest of the World, and calibrate the model to data from the 1760s and 1850s. We find that while trade had only a small impact on British welfare in the 1760s, it had a very …
Is the Washington Consensus Dead? Growth, Openness, and the Great Liberalization, 1970s–2000s
According to the Washington Consensus, developing countries' growth would benefit from reductions in barriers to trade. However, the empirical basis for judging trade reforms is weak. Econometrics are mostly ad hoc, results are typically not judged against models, policies are poorly measured, and most studies are based on pre-1990 experience. We address these concerns by employing a model with capital and intermediate goods, compiling new disagg…
Cross of Euros
The eurozone currently confronts severe short-run macroeconomic adjustment problems and a deficient institutional architecture that has to be reformed in the longer run. Europe's efforts at economic and monetary union are historically unprecedented. However, the gold standard provides lessons regarding what will and won't work, macroeconomically and politically, in the short run, while US history provides long-run lessons regarding appropriate in…
Sovereign debt in Latin America, 1820-1913
This paper examines sovereign lending to Latin America and the Caribbean from 1820 to 1913. We examine four waves of capital flows where defaults were followed by a return to market access. In spite of extended default, countries kept promising high returns that attracted international investors again and again: financial autarky thus gave way to eras of high integration to global markets as measured by sovereign risk pricing. We discuss imperfec…
Credit Booms Gone Bust
The financial crisis has refocused attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. We study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a new historical dataset for 14 countries over the years 1870–2008. Total credit has increased strongly relative to output and money in the second half of the twentieth century. Monetary policy responses to financial crises have also b…
Collateral Damage
Conventional wisdom in economic history suggests that conflict between countries can be enormously disruptive of economic activity, especially international trade. We study the effects of war on bilateral trade with available data extending back to 1870. Using the gravity model, we estimate the contemporaneous and lagged effects of wars on the trade of belligerent nations and neutrals, controlling for other determinants of trade, as well as the p…
The New Comparative Economic History
Essays by internationally prominent economists examine long run cross-country economic trends from the perspective of New Comparative Economic History, an approach pioneered by Harvard economist Jeffrey G. Williamson. The innovative approach to economic history known as the New Comparative Economic History represents a distinct change in the way that many economic historians view their role, do their work, and interact with the broader economics …
New Comparative Economic History
Globalization in Historical Perspective (National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report)
Globalization in Historical Perspective
Considers globalization in the context of the history of international trade. Its eleven papers explore a synthesized variety of topics, including how the process of globalization can be measured by the long-term integration of markets, what trends and questions develop as markets converge and diverge and others
The Trilemma in History
The exchange-rate regime is often seen as constrained by the monetary policy trilemma, which imposes a stark tradeoff among exchange stability, monetary independence, and capital market openness. Yet the trilemma has not gone without challenge. Some (e.g., Others (e.g., This paper studies the coherence of international interest rates over more than 130 years. The constraints implied by the trilemma are largely borne out by history
Globalization in Historical Perspective
Integrating the Americas
Global Capital Markets
This book presents an economic survey of international capital mobility from the late nineteenth century to the present. The authors examine the theory and empirical evidence surrounding the fall and rise of integration in the world market. A discussion of institutional developments focuses on capital controls and the pursuit of macroeconomic policy objectives in shifting monetary regimes. The Great Depression emerges as the key turning point in …
Measuring Market Integration
A major question in the literature on the classical gold standard concerns the efficiency of international arbitrage. Authors have examined efficiency by looking at the spread of the gold points, gold point violations, the flow of gold, or by tests of various asset market criteria, including speculative efficiency and interest arbitrage. These studies have suffered from many limitations, both methodological and empirical. We offer a new methodolo…
The Time for Austerity
Journal Article The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy Get access Òscar Jordà, Òscar Jordà Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and University of California, Davis Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Alan M. Taylor Alan M. Taylor University of California, Davis, NBER, and CEPR Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journa…
Sovereign risk, credibility and the gold standard
What determines sovereign risk? We study the London bond market from the 1870s to the 1930s. Our findings support conventional wisdom concerning the low credibility of the interwar gold standard. Before 1914 gold standard adherence effectively signalled credibility and shaved up to 30 basis points from country borrowing spreads. In the 1920s, however, simply resuming prewar gold parities was insufficient to secure benefits. Countries that devalue…
External Dependence, Demographic Burdens, and Argentine Economic Decline After the Belle Époque
Once one of the richest countries in the world, Argentina has been in relative economic decline for most of the twentieth century. The quantitative records of income growth and accumulation date the onset of the retardation to around the time of the Great War, and patterns of aggregate saving and foreign borrowing show that scarcity of investable resources significantly frustrated interwar development. A demographic model of national saving demon…
The Purchasing Power Parity Debate
Originally propounded by the sixteenth-century scholars of the University of Salamanca, the concept of purchasing power parity (PPP) was revived in the interwar period in the context of the debate concerning the appropriate level at which to re-establish international exchange rate parities. Broadly accepted as a long-run equilibrium condition in the post-war period, it was first advocated as a short-run equilibrium by many international economis…
On the Costs of Inward-Looking Development
From the 1930s to the 1980s, economic policies in Latin America epitomized the inward-looking model of development. The model emerged in the Depression, and was later codified in unorthodox economic theories. Even though economic performance was seen as disappointing by the 1960s, the distortions persisted and worsened into the 1970s and 1980s. This article examines the costs of distortions and explores the structural differences between growth d…
Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective
This paper examines business cycles theoretically and empirically, with a quantitative study based on data for a cross section of countries. Theoretical concerns indicate that the properties of business cycle models depend not only on important structural aspects of the model, such as money neutrality, labor market structure, and price adjustment, but also on the closure of the model in international markets. Econometric considerations suggest th…
Argentina and the world capital market
This paper is concerned with integration in the world capital market between the economies of the core and periphery in the twentieth century. It proceeds with some general observations and with a special focus on the case of Argentina. I will argue that understanding the changing relations in international capital markets offers important insights into the growth and development process, especially for the countries of the periphery. Moreover, s…
Capital Flows to the New World as an Intergenerational Transfer
The late nineteenth century saw international mass migrations of capital and labor from the Old World to the New. Factors chased each other and the abundant resources at the frontier. Demographic structure also contributed to the massive capital flows from Britain to the New World. The dependency hypothesis is confirmed by estimation of savings functions in three New World economies (Argentina, Australia, and Canada) in which high dependency rate…
Peopling the Pampa
Integrating the Americas
Tres fases del crecimiento económico argentino
El empeoramiento de los resultados económicos relativos de Argentina puede atribuirse, en gran parte, a las desfavorables condiciones existentes para la acumulación de capital a partir de 1913. En la primera fase (antes de 1913) el éxito de la Belle Époque se debió a las espectaculares tasas de acumulación. En la segunda fase (1913–década de 1930) la baja tasa nacional de ahorro limitó la tasa de acumulación de capital. En la tercera fase (década…
Economic Recovery from the Argentine Great Depression
Did macroconomic interventions make any contribution to Argentina's revovery from the Great Depression? Macroeconomic policy deviated from gold-standard orthodoxy after the final suspension of convertibility in 1929. Fiscal policy was conservative. Monetary policy became unorthodox after 1931, when the Caja de conversión began rediscounting to sterilize gold outflows and avoid deflation. This change predated the creation of the central bank in 19…
Internal versus external convertibility and emerging-market crises
Sovereign debt in Latin America, 1820-1913
This paper examines sovereign lending to Latin America and the Caribbean from 1820 to 1913. We examine four waves of capital flows where defaults were followed by a return to market access. In spite of extended default, countries kept promising high returns that attracted international investors again and again: financial autarky thus gave way to eras of high integration to global markets as measured by sovereign risk pricing. We discuss imperfec…
Globalization in Historical Perspective
International Monetary Relations
In this essay, we highlight the interactions of the international monetary system with financial conditions, not just with the output, inflation, and balance of payments goals usually discussed. We review how financial conditions and outright financial crises have posed difficulties for each of the main international monetary systems in the last 150 years or so: the gold standard, the interwar period, the Bretton Woods system, and the current sys…
Debt, dependence and the demographic Transition
Argentine Economic Growth in Comparative Perspective
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
External Dependence, Demographic Burdens, and Argentine Economic Decline After the Belle Époque
Once one of the richest countries in the world, Argentina has been in relative economic decline for most of the twentieth century. The quantitative records of income growth and accumulation date the onset of the retardation to around the time of the Great War, and patterns of aggregate saving and foreign borrowing show that scarcity of investable resources significantly frustrated interwar development. A demographic model of national saving demon…
The Economics of Transformation
Tres fases del crecimiento económico argentino
El empeoramiento de los resultados económicos relativos de Argentina puede atribuirse, en gran parte, a las desfavorables condiciones existentes para la acumulación de capital a partir de 1913. En la primera fase (antes de 1913) el éxito de la Belle Époque se debió a las espectaculares tasas de acumulación. En la segunda fase (1913–década de 1930) la baja tasa nacional de ahorro limitó la tasa de acumulación de capital. En la tercera fase (década…
Capital Flows to the New World as an Intergenerational Transfer
The late nineteenth century saw international mass migrations of capital and labor from the Old World to the New. Factors chased each other and the abundant resources at the frontier. Demographic structure also contributed to the massive capital flows from Britain to the New World. The dependency hypothesis is confirmed by estimation of savings functions in three New World economies (Argentina, Australia, and Canada) in which high dependency rate…
Argentine Economic Growth in Comparative Perspective
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Debt, dependence and the demographic Transition
Peopling the Pampa
Argentina and the world capital market
This paper is concerned with integration in the world capital market between the economies of the core and periphery in the twentieth century. It proceeds with some general observations and with a special focus on the case of Argentina. I will argue that understanding the changing relations in international capital markets offers important insights into the growth and development process, especially for the countries of the periphery. Moreover, s…
On the Costs of Inward-Looking Development
From the 1930s to the 1980s, economic policies in Latin America epitomized the inward-looking model of development. The model emerged in the Depression, and was later codified in unorthodox economic theories. Even though economic performance was seen as disappointing by the 1960s, the distortions persisted and worsened into the 1970s and 1980s. This article examines the costs of distortions and explores the structural differences between growth d…
Economic Recovery from the Argentine Great Depression
Did macroconomic interventions make any contribution to Argentina's revovery from the Great Depression? Macroeconomic policy deviated from gold-standard orthodoxy after the final suspension of convertibility in 1929. Fiscal policy was conservative. Monetary policy became unorthodox after 1931, when the Caja de conversión began rediscounting to sterilize gold outflows and avoid deflation. This change predated the creation of the central bank in 19…
Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective
This paper examines business cycles theoretically and empirically, with a quantitative study based on data for a cross section of countries. Theoretical concerns indicate that the properties of business cycle models depend not only on important structural aspects of the model, such as money neutrality, labor market structure, and price adjustment, but also on the closure of the model in international markets. Econometric considerations suggest th…
A Century of Purchasing-Power Parity
This paper investigates purchasing-power parity (PPP) since the late nineteenth century. I collected data for a group of twenty countries over 100 years, a larger historical panel of annual data than has ever been studied. The evidence for long-run PPP is favorable using recent multivariate and univariate tests of higher power. Residual variance analysis shows that episodes of floating exchange rates have generally been associated with larger dev…
Internal versus external convertibility and emerging-market crises
Sovereign risk, credibility and the gold standard
What determines sovereign risk? We study the London bond market from the 1870s to the 1930s. Our findings support conventional wisdom concerning the low credibility of the interwar gold standard. Before 1914 gold standard adherence effectively signalled credibility and shaved up to 30 basis points from country borrowing spreads. In the 1920s, however, simply resuming prewar gold parities was insufficient to secure benefits. Countries that devalue…
Global Capital Markets
This book presents an economic survey of international capital mobility from the late nineteenth century to the present. The authors examine the theory and empirical evidence surrounding the fall and rise of integration in the world market. A discussion of institutional developments focuses on capital controls and the pursuit of macroeconomic policy objectives in shifting monetary regimes. The Great Depression emerges as the key turning point in …
Measuring Market Integration
A major question in the literature on the classical gold standard concerns the efficiency of international arbitrage. Authors have examined efficiency by looking at the spread of the gold points, gold point violations, the flow of gold, or by tests of various asset market criteria, including speculative efficiency and interest arbitrage. These studies have suffered from many limitations, both methodological and empirical. We offer a new methodolo…
The Purchasing Power Parity Debate
Originally propounded by the sixteenth-century scholars of the University of Salamanca, the concept of purchasing power parity (PPP) was revived in the interwar period in the context of the debate concerning the appropriate level at which to re-establish international exchange rate parities. Broadly accepted as a long-run equilibrium condition in the post-war period, it was first advocated as a short-run equilibrium by many international economis…
Globalization in Historical Perspective (National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report)
Globalization in Historical Perspective
Considers globalization in the context of the history of international trade. Its eleven papers explore a synthesized variety of topics, including how the process of globalization can be measured by the long-term integration of markets, what trends and questions develop as markets converge and diverge and others
The Trilemma in History
The exchange-rate regime is often seen as constrained by the monetary policy trilemma, which imposes a stark tradeoff among exchange stability, monetary independence, and capital market openness. Yet the trilemma has not gone without challenge. Some (e.g., Others (e.g., This paper studies the coherence of international interest rates over more than 130 years. The constraints implied by the trilemma are largely borne out by history
Globalization in Historical Perspective
Integrating the Americas
The New Comparative Economic History
Essays by internationally prominent economists examine long run cross-country economic trends from the perspective of New Comparative Economic History, an approach pioneered by Harvard economist Jeffrey G. Williamson. The innovative approach to economic history known as the New Comparative Economic History represents a distinct change in the way that many economic historians view their role, do their work, and interact with the broader economics …
New Comparative Economic History
Collateral Damage
Conventional wisdom in economic history suggests that conflict between countries can be enormously disruptive of economic activity, especially international trade. We study the effects of war on bilateral trade with available data extending back to 1870. Using the gravity model, we estimate the contemporaneous and lagged effects of wars on the trade of belligerent nations and neutrals, controlling for other determinants of trade, as well as the p…
Economics (33 obras) · Political science (22 obras) · Global Financial Crisis and Policies (17 obras) · Macroeconomics (14 obras) · Economic Theory and Policy (13 obras) · Monetary economics (13 obras) · Market economy (12 obras) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (12 obras) · International economics (11 obras) · Geography (8 obras)