Francesco Rigoli
Biographic Data
| ID | 3782185 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Francesco Rigoli |
| GIVEN NAMES | Francesco |
| FAMILY NAME | Rigoli |
| SIGNATURE | RIGOLI F |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of London |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-4248-5360 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 16 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 2 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 16 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2015 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
On the origin of the reward function
Influential cognitive science theories postulate that decision-making is based on treating expected outcomes as incentives according to a reward function. Yet a systematic analysis of the learning processes that determine the reward function remains to be carried out. The paper fills this gap by examining the contribution of two fundamental learning processes: conditioned reinforcement , occurring either via direct or via vicarious experience, an…
Bayes or Pascal? The computations underlying motivated reasoning
The construct of motivated reasoning has inspired an influential body of research. However, most theories of this construct are expressed in a verbal form. This is somewhat limited in light of contemporary research in cognitive science that emphasizes the insight afforded by employing computational modeling. To address this, the paper introduces a computational model of motivated reasoning. The model builds on previous accounts of belief formatio…
Guess who? Identity attribution as Bayesian inference
An influential argument is that mental processes can be explained at three different levels of analysis: the functional, algorithmic, and implementation level. Identity attribution (the process whereby an identity is attributed to another individual or to the self) has been rarely explored at the functional level. To address this, here I propose a theory of identity attribution grounded on Bayesian inference, being the latter a well-established f…
Testing thrasymachus’ hypothesis
Research on distributive justice has shown that people's judgments on how to distribute resources justly are shaped by various criteria including equity, need, equality, and prior ownership. Yet, an important question remains open: do people's judgments about justice take the power of the actors under consideration? In other words, to people deem the powerful to deserve a larger share even when their contribution, need, and prior ownership are eq…
Neuroticism Is Linked With Liberal Ideology in Young, but not Old, People in the United States
Polarization in the United States is partly due to a remarkable ideological divide between generations. Although substantial research has investigated why old people have become more conservative, less is known about why young people have become more liberal. The article investigates this by probing the role of neuroticism. It hypothesises that, compared to older cohorts, younger ones have grown up during a more competitive historical period that…
Deconstructing the Conspiratorial Mind
In the social sciences, research on conspiracy theories is accumulating fast. To contribute to this research, here I introduce a computational model about the psychological processes underlying support for conspiracy theories. The proposal is that endorsement of these theories depends on three factors: prior beliefs, novel evidence, and expected consequences. Thanks to the latter, a conspiracy hypothesis might be selected because it is the costli…
A computational theory of evaluation processes in apathy
Computational modelling can offer valuable insight on mental illness. However, this approach has rarely been adopted to investigate apathy, a condition characterising a variety of psychiatric and neurological syndromes. This paper proposes a computational model of apathy and tests key model predictions in the healthy adult population. Building upon recent reference-dependent theories of evaluation, the model interprets apathy as arising from an e…
Intervention Bias
Evidence indicates that when people forecast potential social risks, they are guided not only by facts but often by motivated reasoning also. Here I apply a Bayesian decision framework to interpret the role of motivated reasoning during forecasting and assess some of the ensuing predictions. In 2 online studies, for each of a set of potential risky social events (e.g., economic crisis, rise of income inequality, and increase in violent crime), pa…
Perception of political influence within the general population of the United Kingdom
When reflecting upon politics, people express judgements about the political influence exerted by different institutions. However, the nature of these judgements remains to be studied by scholars. The paper explores this with a focus on the United Kingdom. Online, participants recruited from the general population judged the political influence of a variety of institutions such as parties, media and economic powers. Political institutions (e.g., …
A reference-based theory of motivation and effort allocation
Motivation is key for performance in domains such as work, sport, and learning. Research has established that motivation and the willingness to invest effort generally increase as a function of reward. However, this view struggles to explain some empirical observations—for example, in the domain of sport, athletes sometimes appear to lose motivation when playing against weak opponents—this despite objective rewards being high. This and similar ev…
Moral decisions in the age of Covid-19
The moral decisions we make during this period, such as deciding whether to comply with quarantine rules, have unprecedented societal effects. We simulate the "escape from Milan" that occurred on March 7th-8th 2020, when many travelers moved from a high-risk zone (Milan) to southern regions of Italy (Campania and Lazio) immediately after an imminent lockdown was announced. Our simulations show that fewer than 50 active cases might have caused the…
The Link Between Covid-19, Anxiety, and Religious Beliefs in the United States and the United Kingdom
Research has shown that stress impacts on people’s religious beliefs. However, several aspects of this effect remain poorly understood, for example regarding the role of prior religiosity and stress-induced anxiety. This paper explores these aspects in the context of the recent coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19). The latter has impacted dramatically on many people’s well-being; hence it can be considered a highly stressful event. Through online ques…
Opinions about immigration, patriotism, and welfare policies during the coronavirus emergency
The coronavirus pandemics represent a dramatic global health emergency; exploring its cultural impact is important. We contribute to this by investigating changes in political opinions following the pandemics (focusing on the UK and the USA; these were examined jointly given their cultural similarity). Online, participants (recruited via the Prolific website) answered (newly created) questions probing how their opinion about immigration, patrioti…
Active Inference
This article describes a process theory based on active inference and belief propagation. Starting from the premise that all neuronal processing (and action selection) can be explained by maximizing Bayesian model evidence—or minimizing variational free energy—we ask whether neuronal responses can be described as a gradient descent on variational free energy. Using a standard (Markov decision process) generative model, we derive the neuronal dyna…
Active Inference, homeostatic regulation and adaptive behavioural control
We review a theory of homeostatic regulation and adaptive behavioural control within the Active Inference framework. Our aim is to connect two research streams that are usually considered independently; namely, Active Inference and associative learning theories of animal behaviour. The former uses a probabilistic (Bayesian) formulation of perception and action, while the latter calls on multiple (Pavlovian, habitual, goal-directed) processes for …
Active inference and epistemic value
We offer a formal treatment of choice behavior based on the premise that agents minimize the expected free energy of future outcomes. Crucially, the negative free energy or quality of a policy can be decomposed into extrinsic and epistemic (or intrinsic) value. Minimizing expected free energy is therefore equivalent to maximizing extrinsic value or expected utility (defined in terms of prior preferences or goals), while maximizing information gai…
Perception of political influence within the general population of the United Kingdom
When reflecting upon politics, people express judgements about the political influence exerted by different institutions. However, the nature of these judgements remains to be studied by scholars. The paper explores this with a focus on the United Kingdom. Online, participants recruited from the general population judged the political influence of a variety of institutions such as parties, media and economic powers. Political institutions (e.g., …
Opinions about immigration, patriotism, and welfare policies during the coronavirus emergency
The coronavirus pandemics represent a dramatic global health emergency; exploring its cultural impact is important. We contribute to this by investigating changes in political opinions following the pandemics (focusing on the UK and the USA; these were examined jointly given their cultural similarity). Online, participants (recruited via the Prolific website) answered (newly created) questions probing how their opinion about immigration, patrioti…
Active Inference, homeostatic regulation and adaptive behavioural control
We review a theory of homeostatic regulation and adaptive behavioural control within the Active Inference framework. Our aim is to connect two research streams that are usually considered independently; namely, Active Inference and associative learning theories of animal behaviour. The former uses a probabilistic (Bayesian) formulation of perception and action, while the latter calls on multiple (Pavlovian, habitual, goal-directed) processes for …
Active inference and epistemic value
We offer a formal treatment of choice behavior based on the premise that agents minimize the expected free energy of future outcomes. Crucially, the negative free energy or quality of a policy can be decomposed into extrinsic and epistemic (or intrinsic) value. Minimizing expected free energy is therefore equivalent to maximizing extrinsic value or expected utility (defined in terms of prior preferences or goals), while maximizing information gai…
Active Inference
This article describes a process theory based on active inference and belief propagation. Starting from the premise that all neuronal processing (and action selection) can be explained by maximizing Bayesian model evidence—or minimizing variational free energy—we ask whether neuronal responses can be described as a gradient descent on variational free energy. Using a standard (Markov decision process) generative model, we derive the neuronal dyna…
Opinions about immigration, patriotism, and welfare policies during the coronavirus emergency
The coronavirus pandemics represent a dramatic global health emergency; exploring its cultural impact is important. We contribute to this by investigating changes in political opinions following the pandemics (focusing on the UK and the USA; these were examined jointly given their cultural similarity). Online, participants (recruited via the Prolific website) answered (newly created) questions probing how their opinion about immigration, patrioti…
Moral decisions in the age of Covid-19
The moral decisions we make during this period, such as deciding whether to comply with quarantine rules, have unprecedented societal effects. We simulate the "escape from Milan" that occurred on March 7th-8th 2020, when many travelers moved from a high-risk zone (Milan) to southern regions of Italy (Campania and Lazio) immediately after an imminent lockdown was announced. Our simulations show that fewer than 50 active cases might have caused the…
The Link Between Covid-19, Anxiety, and Religious Beliefs in the United States and the United Kingdom
Research has shown that stress impacts on people’s religious beliefs. However, several aspects of this effect remain poorly understood, for example regarding the role of prior religiosity and stress-induced anxiety. This paper explores these aspects in the context of the recent coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19). The latter has impacted dramatically on many people’s well-being; hence it can be considered a highly stressful event. Through online ques…
A reference-based theory of motivation and effort allocation
Motivation is key for performance in domains such as work, sport, and learning. Research has established that motivation and the willingness to invest effort generally increase as a function of reward. However, this view struggles to explain some empirical observations—for example, in the domain of sport, athletes sometimes appear to lose motivation when playing against weak opponents—this despite objective rewards being high. This and similar ev…
A computational theory of evaluation processes in apathy
Computational modelling can offer valuable insight on mental illness. However, this approach has rarely been adopted to investigate apathy, a condition characterising a variety of psychiatric and neurological syndromes. This paper proposes a computational model of apathy and tests key model predictions in the healthy adult population. Building upon recent reference-dependent theories of evaluation, the model interprets apathy as arising from an e…
Intervention Bias
Evidence indicates that when people forecast potential social risks, they are guided not only by facts but often by motivated reasoning also. Here I apply a Bayesian decision framework to interpret the role of motivated reasoning during forecasting and assess some of the ensuing predictions. In 2 online studies, for each of a set of potential risky social events (e.g., economic crisis, rise of income inequality, and increase in violent crime), pa…
Perception of political influence within the general population of the United Kingdom
When reflecting upon politics, people express judgements about the political influence exerted by different institutions. However, the nature of these judgements remains to be studied by scholars. The paper explores this with a focus on the United Kingdom. Online, participants recruited from the general population judged the political influence of a variety of institutions such as parties, media and economic powers. Political institutions (e.g., …
Deconstructing the Conspiratorial Mind
In the social sciences, research on conspiracy theories is accumulating fast. To contribute to this research, here I introduce a computational model about the psychological processes underlying support for conspiracy theories. The proposal is that endorsement of these theories depends on three factors: prior beliefs, novel evidence, and expected consequences. Thanks to the latter, a conspiracy hypothesis might be selected because it is the costli…
Guess who? Identity attribution as Bayesian inference
An influential argument is that mental processes can be explained at three different levels of analysis: the functional, algorithmic, and implementation level. Identity attribution (the process whereby an identity is attributed to another individual or to the self) has been rarely explored at the functional level. To address this, here I propose a theory of identity attribution grounded on Bayesian inference, being the latter a well-established f…
Testing thrasymachus’ hypothesis
Research on distributive justice has shown that people's judgments on how to distribute resources justly are shaped by various criteria including equity, need, equality, and prior ownership. Yet, an important question remains open: do people's judgments about justice take the power of the actors under consideration? In other words, to people deem the powerful to deserve a larger share even when their contribution, need, and prior ownership are eq…
Neuroticism Is Linked With Liberal Ideology in Young, but not Old, People in the United States
Polarization in the United States is partly due to a remarkable ideological divide between generations. Although substantial research has investigated why old people have become more conservative, less is known about why young people have become more liberal. The article investigates this by probing the role of neuroticism. It hypothesises that, compared to older cohorts, younger ones have grown up during a more competitive historical period that…
On the origin of the reward function
Influential cognitive science theories postulate that decision-making is based on treating expected outcomes as incentives according to a reward function. Yet a systematic analysis of the learning processes that determine the reward function remains to be carried out. The paper fills this gap by examining the contribution of two fundamental learning processes: conditioned reinforcement , occurring either via direct or via vicarious experience, an…
Bayes or Pascal? The computations underlying motivated reasoning
The construct of motivated reasoning has inspired an influential body of research. However, most theories of this construct are expressed in a verbal form. This is somewhat limited in light of contemporary research in cognitive science that emphasizes the insight afforded by employing computational modeling. To address this, the paper introduces a computational model of motivated reasoning. The model builds on previous accounts of belief formatio…
Psychology (11 works) · Social Psychology (8 works) · Social and Intergroup Psychology (6 works) · Cognition (5 works) · Computer Science (5 works) · Embodied and Extended Cognition (4 works) · Inference (4 works) · Political science (4 works) · Psychiatry (4 works) · Bayesian inference (3 works)