Graeme Roy
Biographic Data
| ID | 3782675 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Graeme Roy |
| GIVEN NAMES | Graeme |
| FAMILY NAME | Roy |
| SIGNATURE | ROY G |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Glasgow |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-5376-5408 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 23 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 44 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 23 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2002 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 4 |
Years of Scottish National Accounts: 1948–2018
This paper provides a comprehensive time series of historical National Accounts for Scotland (onshore and offshore) from 1948 to 2018. It includes a detailed breakdown by income component and industrial sector using methods that are forward and backward compatible. Through this work we offer new insights on the performance of the post‐war Scottish economy, including its relative performance to the UK and its industrial makeup. Our findings also p…
Trading borders: The importance of interregional integration and economy size for the impact of secession
This paper analyses the impact of secession on the ‘seceding’ and ‘successor’ regions. A two-regions computable general equilibrium model is initially calibrated to a set of synthetic datasets where the regions only differ in relative size and trade integration. Using the case of two identical regions as a benchmark we show how relative size and trade integration determine the relative impact on both regions. This framework is used to explore thr…
How to green your city? Boundary challenges and net zero place leadership
Urban leaders are increasingly seeking to navigate to net zero emissions whilst balancing wider economic and social priorities. Facing the leaders tasked with delivering these ambitions are a set of boundary challenges, including in relation to time, geography, governance and policy. We explore the practical steps leaders are taking to manage these challenges in Scotland’s four largest cities – Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh and Glasgow. Our contrib…
Two cheers for Holyrood: Devolution and Dimensions of Fiscal Accountability
Claims that there was a lack of accountability had been part of the backdrop to campaigns for a Scottish Parliament. Accountability had been one of the four principles that informed the Consultative Steering Group, set up by the UK Government to draw up procedures and working practices for the Scottish Parliament. After a discussion of different types of accountability, the paper considers the extent to which greater accountability has been achie…
Scotland’s Economy after 25 Years of Devolution
Prior to devolution, a significant majority of Scots believed that their new parliament would greatly improve the performance of the Scottish economy. We show that, in the subsequent twenty-five years, performance has been mixed. In some areas, Scotland’s relative economic performance has improved particularly relative to an increasingly unequal UK economic model. But against key international competitors, and in areas where the parliament has le…
Rurality, socio‐economic disadvantage and educational mobility: A Scottish case study
Rurality is known to be associated with a number of weaker educational outcomes, from lower attainment through to lower social mobility. This is why so much policy and practitioner focus has been directed at addressing the rurality gap in educational outcomes. In this paper, we use pupil‐level data for Scotland to contribute to two dimensions of this problem. First, we explore the relationship between socio‐economic deprivation and educational mo…
Early Years Multi‐grade Classes and Pupil Attainment
We study the effect of exposure to older, more experienced, classroom peers resulting from the widespread use of multi‐grade classes in Scottish primary schools. For identification, we exploit that a class‐planning algorithm quasi‐randomly assigns groups of pupils to multi‐grade classes. We find that school‐starters benefit from exposure to second‐graders in measures of numeracy and literacy. We do not find any evidence that these gains are drive…
Revisiting the dimensions of rural resilience: The CoVid-19 pandemic
Understanding the factors that improve the resilience of rural communities is an important area of academic research and focus for policymakers. In this context, the COVID-19 pandemic provides an important opportunity to study the dynamics of different aspects of rural resilience in a crisis period. In this paper, we adopt a mixed methods approach to explore three issues in the context of a rural community – the West Highlands of Scotland. We fra…
Devolved fiscal powers, increased competitiveness and ‘levelling up’: A simulation approach
The UK levelling up agenda includes a commitment to devolution, but there has been little attempt to model the operation of possible accompanying regional tax powers. We use computable general equilibrium simulations to analyse the local impacts of regional tax cuts. These reduce production costs, thereby stimulating regional economic activity. But the financing of any subsequent deficit and the operation of the regional labour market determines …
What can analysis of 47 million job advertisements tell us about how opportunities for homeworking are evolving in the United Kingdom
Using an extensive database of job adverts, we investigate the extent to which homeworking is likely to continue. We track how advertisement language has evolved to indicate homeworking opportunities and how the characteristics of jobs offering these opportunities have changed, including a greater degree of polarisation in opportunity by salary
Fiscal devolution and the accountability gap: Budget scrutiny following tax devolution to Scotland
Financing regional government involves trade-offs between own-source taxes and grants. Improved accountability has been an argument behind calls for greater tax devolution, but this argument relies upon effective scrutiny mechanisms existing or being developed. This paper explores such issues through the lens of recent tax devolution to Scotland. Drawing on insights from senior stakeholders, we assess how scrutiny has changed in the aftermath of …
The promises and pitfalls of operationalizing inclusive growth
Inclusive growth is a resurgent concern for policymakers, raising questions about what economic development is for and the outcomes to be prioritized. This paper contributes to the literature by examining the opportunities and challenges emerging from attempts to operationalize inclusive growth in four regional contexts in Scotland. We show that applying inclusive growth ultimately rests on complex factors, from local leadership and autonomy thro…
The Scottish National Party’s Economic Prospectus for Independence: Out with the Old
Nicola Sturgeon has promised to restart work on the prospectus for independence. The economic arguments will once again be central. The fact that the macroeconomic, constitutional and political context has changed markedly since 2014 offers the SNP an opportunity to reset its pitch to the people of Scotland. But, it faces huge challenges in doing so, particularly within the timescale the First Minister has set for a second referendum. Some of the…
Careful What you Wish for? Risk and Reward with Scottish Tax Devolution
September 2022 marks twenty‐five years since the referendum on the creation of the Scottish Parliament. From the early days of devolution, debates over Holyrood's tax powers have been a recurring theme. Recent reforms to the Parliament's tax powers have been driven by the Scottish National Party and the Scottish Conservatives, an indirect coming together of arguments from two unlikely political allies. Both have, however, embraced arguments for g…
Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (Gers): A look beyond nearly 30 years of controversy at what it does and doesn't tell us about Scotland
Government Expenditure Revenue Scotland (GERS) remains a controversial statistical publication on Scotland’s public finances. We trace the evolution of GERS over time, and track how it has been used in political debate since it was first published in 1992. Now in its 27 th edition, we review its ongoing role in informing constitutional and fiscal debate in Scotland. We dispel some of the myths about the publication, but also highlight legitimate …
Knowing the goal: An inclusive economy that can address the public health challenges of our time
OBJECTIVE: Inequality is deeply embedded in our economic structures-it is necessary to address these economic inequalities if we are to reduce health inequalities. An inclusive economic approach was conceptualised as a way to reduce these economic inequalities, although the attributes of this approach are unclear. Public health practitioners are increasingly asked to provide a health perspective on the economic recovery plans in the light of the …
Universal Basic Income as an instrument of regional development policy: A micro–macroeconomic analysis for Scotland
Regional development now encompasses inclusive growth so that welfare spending becomes a potentially important policy for regions with devolved powers. Universal Basic Income (UBI), an unconditional payment to all citizens, has been gaining traction, including internationally. We provide a system-wide analysis of a region-specific UBI for Scotland on the level and distribution of regional activity. Using both micro- and macroeconomic models, we f…
Growth incentives and devolved fiscal systems
This paper explores the characteristics of a range of stylized devolved fiscal systems that have been applied, or proposed, as a means of funding the devolved Scottish government. The central aim is to identify those schemes that most effectively provide incentives for the pursuit of growth-promoting policies by the regional government. Using simulations with an intertemporal, computable general equilibrium model for Scotland, it did not prove po…
Quebec, Scotland, and substate governments' roles in Canadian and British trade policy: Lessons to be learned
Following Brexit (the withdrawal of the UK from the EU and the European Atomic Energy Community at the end of 31 January 2020), the British government stated that it hoped to reach a new trade agreement with Canada to be modelled after the Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, the first free-trade deal for which Canadian provinces were directly involved at every stage of negotiations. In the UK, while there are mechanisms for the …
Scotland's industrial water use: Understanding recent changes and examining the future
Political uncertainty and stock market volatility: New evidence from the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum
We investigate the impact of heightened political uncertainty in the run‐up to, and after, the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. The conditional volatilities of stock returns of our Scottish index and the FTSE all share index are characterised by the same GARCH parameters for a sample ending in late 2013, but this no longer holds when estimation extends closer to the referendum. The relative volatility of Scottish companies’ stock returns pe…
The long‐term economic implications of Brexit for Scotland: An interregional analysis
Fiscal Federalism and Fiscal Autonomy: Lessons for the UK from Other Industrialised Countries
The purpose of this article is the following. First, we provide a comparison of the degree of fiscal decentralisation in the UK with that in other countries, and assess the extent to which different areas of public expenditure are assigned to different tiers of government. Second, we assess the degree of fiscal autonomy in the UK compared to that in other OECD countries. We also provide some insights from the theory of fiscal federalism to assess…
Revisiting the dimensions of rural resilience: The CoVid-19 pandemic
Understanding the factors that improve the resilience of rural communities is an important area of academic research and focus for policymakers. In this context, the COVID-19 pandemic provides an important opportunity to study the dynamics of different aspects of rural resilience in a crisis period. In this paper, we adopt a mixed methods approach to explore three issues in the context of a rural community – the West Highlands of Scotland. We fra…
The promises and pitfalls of operationalizing inclusive growth
Inclusive growth is a resurgent concern for policymakers, raising questions about what economic development is for and the outcomes to be prioritized. This paper contributes to the literature by examining the opportunities and challenges emerging from attempts to operationalize inclusive growth in four regional contexts in Scotland. We show that applying inclusive growth ultimately rests on complex factors, from local leadership and autonomy thro…
Fiscal Federalism and Fiscal Autonomy: Lessons for the UK from Other Industrialised Countries
The purpose of this article is the following. First, we provide a comparison of the degree of fiscal decentralisation in the UK with that in other countries, and assess the extent to which different areas of public expenditure are assigned to different tiers of government. Second, we assess the degree of fiscal autonomy in the UK compared to that in other OECD countries. We also provide some insights from the theory of fiscal federalism to assess…
Quebec, Scotland, and substate governments' roles in Canadian and British trade policy: Lessons to be learned
Following Brexit (the withdrawal of the UK from the EU and the European Atomic Energy Community at the end of 31 January 2020), the British government stated that it hoped to reach a new trade agreement with Canada to be modelled after the Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, the first free-trade deal for which Canadian provinces were directly involved at every stage of negotiations. In the UK, while there are mechanisms for the …
Political uncertainty and stock market volatility: New evidence from the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum
We investigate the impact of heightened political uncertainty in the run‐up to, and after, the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. The conditional volatilities of stock returns of our Scottish index and the FTSE all share index are characterised by the same GARCH parameters for a sample ending in late 2013, but this no longer holds when estimation extends closer to the referendum. The relative volatility of Scottish companies’ stock returns pe…
The long‐term economic implications of Brexit for Scotland: An interregional analysis
Universal Basic Income as an instrument of regional development policy: A micro–macroeconomic analysis for Scotland
Regional development now encompasses inclusive growth so that welfare spending becomes a potentially important policy for regions with devolved powers. Universal Basic Income (UBI), an unconditional payment to all citizens, has been gaining traction, including internationally. We provide a system-wide analysis of a region-specific UBI for Scotland on the level and distribution of regional activity. Using both micro- and macroeconomic models, we f…
Knowing the goal: An inclusive economy that can address the public health challenges of our time
OBJECTIVE: Inequality is deeply embedded in our economic structures-it is necessary to address these economic inequalities if we are to reduce health inequalities. An inclusive economic approach was conceptualised as a way to reduce these economic inequalities, although the attributes of this approach are unclear. Public health practitioners are increasingly asked to provide a health perspective on the economic recovery plans in the light of the …
Growth incentives and devolved fiscal systems
This paper explores the characteristics of a range of stylized devolved fiscal systems that have been applied, or proposed, as a means of funding the devolved Scottish government. The central aim is to identify those schemes that most effectively provide incentives for the pursuit of growth-promoting policies by the regional government. Using simulations with an intertemporal, computable general equilibrium model for Scotland, it did not prove po…
Fiscal devolution and the accountability gap: Budget scrutiny following tax devolution to Scotland
Financing regional government involves trade-offs between own-source taxes and grants. Improved accountability has been an argument behind calls for greater tax devolution, but this argument relies upon effective scrutiny mechanisms existing or being developed. This paper explores such issues through the lens of recent tax devolution to Scotland. Drawing on insights from senior stakeholders, we assess how scrutiny has changed in the aftermath of …
Careful What you Wish for? Risk and Reward with Scottish Tax Devolution
September 2022 marks twenty‐five years since the referendum on the creation of the Scottish Parliament. From the early days of devolution, debates over Holyrood's tax powers have been a recurring theme. Recent reforms to the Parliament's tax powers have been driven by the Scottish National Party and the Scottish Conservatives, an indirect coming together of arguments from two unlikely political allies. Both have, however, embraced arguments for g…
Fiscal Federalism and Fiscal Autonomy: Lessons for the UK from Other Industrialised Countries
The purpose of this article is the following. First, we provide a comparison of the degree of fiscal decentralisation in the UK with that in other countries, and assess the extent to which different areas of public expenditure are assigned to different tiers of government. Second, we assess the degree of fiscal autonomy in the UK compared to that in other OECD countries. We also provide some insights from the theory of fiscal federalism to assess…
The long‐term economic implications of Brexit for Scotland: An interregional analysis
Political uncertainty and stock market volatility: New evidence from the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum
We investigate the impact of heightened political uncertainty in the run‐up to, and after, the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. The conditional volatilities of stock returns of our Scottish index and the FTSE all share index are characterised by the same GARCH parameters for a sample ending in late 2013, but this no longer holds when estimation extends closer to the referendum. The relative volatility of Scottish companies’ stock returns pe…
Scotland's industrial water use: Understanding recent changes and examining the future
Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (Gers): A look beyond nearly 30 years of controversy at what it does and doesn't tell us about Scotland
Government Expenditure Revenue Scotland (GERS) remains a controversial statistical publication on Scotland’s public finances. We trace the evolution of GERS over time, and track how it has been used in political debate since it was first published in 1992. Now in its 27 th edition, we review its ongoing role in informing constitutional and fiscal debate in Scotland. We dispel some of the myths about the publication, but also highlight legitimate …
Knowing the goal: An inclusive economy that can address the public health challenges of our time
OBJECTIVE: Inequality is deeply embedded in our economic structures-it is necessary to address these economic inequalities if we are to reduce health inequalities. An inclusive economic approach was conceptualised as a way to reduce these economic inequalities, although the attributes of this approach are unclear. Public health practitioners are increasingly asked to provide a health perspective on the economic recovery plans in the light of the …
Universal Basic Income as an instrument of regional development policy: A micro–macroeconomic analysis for Scotland
Regional development now encompasses inclusive growth so that welfare spending becomes a potentially important policy for regions with devolved powers. Universal Basic Income (UBI), an unconditional payment to all citizens, has been gaining traction, including internationally. We provide a system-wide analysis of a region-specific UBI for Scotland on the level and distribution of regional activity. Using both micro- and macroeconomic models, we f…
Growth incentives and devolved fiscal systems
This paper explores the characteristics of a range of stylized devolved fiscal systems that have been applied, or proposed, as a means of funding the devolved Scottish government. The central aim is to identify those schemes that most effectively provide incentives for the pursuit of growth-promoting policies by the regional government. Using simulations with an intertemporal, computable general equilibrium model for Scotland, it did not prove po…
Quebec, Scotland, and substate governments' roles in Canadian and British trade policy: Lessons to be learned
Following Brexit (the withdrawal of the UK from the EU and the European Atomic Energy Community at the end of 31 January 2020), the British government stated that it hoped to reach a new trade agreement with Canada to be modelled after the Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, the first free-trade deal for which Canadian provinces were directly involved at every stage of negotiations. In the UK, while there are mechanisms for the …
What can analysis of 47 million job advertisements tell us about how opportunities for homeworking are evolving in the United Kingdom
Using an extensive database of job adverts, we investigate the extent to which homeworking is likely to continue. We track how advertisement language has evolved to indicate homeworking opportunities and how the characteristics of jobs offering these opportunities have changed, including a greater degree of polarisation in opportunity by salary
Fiscal devolution and the accountability gap: Budget scrutiny following tax devolution to Scotland
Financing regional government involves trade-offs between own-source taxes and grants. Improved accountability has been an argument behind calls for greater tax devolution, but this argument relies upon effective scrutiny mechanisms existing or being developed. This paper explores such issues through the lens of recent tax devolution to Scotland. Drawing on insights from senior stakeholders, we assess how scrutiny has changed in the aftermath of …
The promises and pitfalls of operationalizing inclusive growth
Inclusive growth is a resurgent concern for policymakers, raising questions about what economic development is for and the outcomes to be prioritized. This paper contributes to the literature by examining the opportunities and challenges emerging from attempts to operationalize inclusive growth in four regional contexts in Scotland. We show that applying inclusive growth ultimately rests on complex factors, from local leadership and autonomy thro…
The Scottish National Party’s Economic Prospectus for Independence: Out with the Old
Nicola Sturgeon has promised to restart work on the prospectus for independence. The economic arguments will once again be central. The fact that the macroeconomic, constitutional and political context has changed markedly since 2014 offers the SNP an opportunity to reset its pitch to the people of Scotland. But, it faces huge challenges in doing so, particularly within the timescale the First Minister has set for a second referendum. Some of the…
Careful What you Wish for? Risk and Reward with Scottish Tax Devolution
September 2022 marks twenty‐five years since the referendum on the creation of the Scottish Parliament. From the early days of devolution, debates over Holyrood's tax powers have been a recurring theme. Recent reforms to the Parliament's tax powers have been driven by the Scottish National Party and the Scottish Conservatives, an indirect coming together of arguments from two unlikely political allies. Both have, however, embraced arguments for g…
Early Years Multi‐grade Classes and Pupil Attainment
We study the effect of exposure to older, more experienced, classroom peers resulting from the widespread use of multi‐grade classes in Scottish primary schools. For identification, we exploit that a class‐planning algorithm quasi‐randomly assigns groups of pupils to multi‐grade classes. We find that school‐starters benefit from exposure to second‐graders in measures of numeracy and literacy. We do not find any evidence that these gains are drive…
Revisiting the dimensions of rural resilience: The CoVid-19 pandemic
Understanding the factors that improve the resilience of rural communities is an important area of academic research and focus for policymakers. In this context, the COVID-19 pandemic provides an important opportunity to study the dynamics of different aspects of rural resilience in a crisis period. In this paper, we adopt a mixed methods approach to explore three issues in the context of a rural community – the West Highlands of Scotland. We fra…
Devolved fiscal powers, increased competitiveness and ‘levelling up’: A simulation approach
The UK levelling up agenda includes a commitment to devolution, but there has been little attempt to model the operation of possible accompanying regional tax powers. We use computable general equilibrium simulations to analyse the local impacts of regional tax cuts. These reduce production costs, thereby stimulating regional economic activity. But the financing of any subsequent deficit and the operation of the regional labour market determines …
Scotland’s Economy after 25 Years of Devolution
Prior to devolution, a significant majority of Scots believed that their new parliament would greatly improve the performance of the Scottish economy. We show that, in the subsequent twenty-five years, performance has been mixed. In some areas, Scotland’s relative economic performance has improved particularly relative to an increasingly unequal UK economic model. But against key international competitors, and in areas where the parliament has le…
Rurality, socio‐economic disadvantage and educational mobility: A Scottish case study
Rurality is known to be associated with a number of weaker educational outcomes, from lower attainment through to lower social mobility. This is why so much policy and practitioner focus has been directed at addressing the rurality gap in educational outcomes. In this paper, we use pupil‐level data for Scotland to contribute to two dimensions of this problem. First, we explore the relationship between socio‐economic deprivation and educational mo…
Trading borders: The importance of interregional integration and economy size for the impact of secession
This paper analyses the impact of secession on the ‘seceding’ and ‘successor’ regions. A two-regions computable general equilibrium model is initially calibrated to a set of synthetic datasets where the regions only differ in relative size and trade integration. Using the case of two identical regions as a benchmark we show how relative size and trade integration determine the relative impact on both regions. This framework is used to explore thr…
How to green your city? Boundary challenges and net zero place leadership
Urban leaders are increasingly seeking to navigate to net zero emissions whilst balancing wider economic and social priorities. Facing the leaders tasked with delivering these ambitions are a set of boundary challenges, including in relation to time, geography, governance and policy. We explore the practical steps leaders are taking to manage these challenges in Scotland’s four largest cities – Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh and Glasgow. Our contrib…
Two cheers for Holyrood: Devolution and Dimensions of Fiscal Accountability
Claims that there was a lack of accountability had been part of the backdrop to campaigns for a Scottish Parliament. Accountability had been one of the four principles that informed the Consultative Steering Group, set up by the UK Government to draw up procedures and working practices for the Scottish Parliament. After a discussion of different types of accountability, the paper considers the extent to which greater accountability has been achie…
Years of Scottish National Accounts: 1948–2018
This paper provides a comprehensive time series of historical National Accounts for Scotland (onshore and offshore) from 1948 to 2018. It includes a detailed breakdown by income component and industrial sector using methods that are forward and backward compatible. Through this work we offer new insights on the performance of the post‐war Scottish economy, including its relative performance to the UK and its industrial makeup. Our findings also p…
Economics (20 works) · Political science (17 works) · Law (10 works) · Law (9 works) · Local Government Finance and Decentralization (9 works) · Politics (8 works) · Sociology (8 works) · Devolution (biology (6 works) · Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth (6 works) · Geography (6 works)