Pavel K Baev
Biographic Data
| ID | 386858 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Pavel K Baev |
| GIVEN NAMES | Pavel K |
| FAMILY NAME | Baev |
| SIGNATURE | BAEV P K |
| AFFILIATIONS | International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 21 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 36 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 21 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1993 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2023 |
| H-INDEX | 4 |
The Russian War Machine Fails the Tests of War
The Russian military has failed the tests of the Ukraine war, and its leadership and chain of command are seriously compromised. A costly modernization program failed to deliver the promised superiority in key weapon systems, offensive capabilities are exhausted, and the quality of manpower has deteriorated. The ill-fated reliance on the Wagner Group was a result of this degradation. Nuclear weapons cannot be used to break the pattern of slow-mov…
What Drives Moscow's Military Adventurism
Moscow may not be very good at learning lessons from setbacks, and certainly tends to exaggerate its successes, but it has few doubts about the feasibility of ‘military solutions’ and even fewer reservations about reaching for them
Russia's pivot to China goes astray
High-level declarations in Moscow and Beijing on the steady progress in upgrading their strategic partnership depart increasingly far from the reality of shrinking economic ties and diverging political perspectives. In late 2014, the dynamic development of this partnership appeared to have the potential of becoming a major shift in the fluid security balance in the Asia-Pacific region; in late 2015, however, the concerned neighbours have more rea…
Russia's Arctic Ambitions and Anxieties
[P]olicies based on the delusional but popular perception of the Arctic shelf as a ‘treasure chest’ of high-value resources that must be protected by military means have arrived at an inevitable dead end
Energy Intrigues on the EU's Southern Flank
Russian-Ukrainian-EU energy relations are subject to a variety of political and economic stresses and strains. Applying game theory to the triangle suggests some possible scenarios
The South Stream versus Nabucco pipeline race
The plan for the southern energy corridor delivering a new secure supply of natural gas to the European Union is shaped by projects for two pipelines—Nabucco and the South Stream. Economic rationales for both projects are far from solid as the prospects for returns on massive investments are doubtful due to uncertainty about demand. Much political effort has nevertheless been expended on advancing these competing ‘mega-projects’, which have acqui…
From West to South to North
It is hardly surprising that Russia's foreign policy is to a very large degree concerned with relations with its immediate neighbourhoods, which are uniquely diverse and often rich in violent conflicts. This short-range policy is a direct consequence of the country's enormous longitude, which provides it with more neighbours than any other state in the world. Obsession with relations with the United States constitutes an important exception to th…
Defining Civil War by Examining Post-Soviet Conflicts
Great many violent events happened during 1991–2005 in the 12 states that emerged after the collapse of the USSR but only a few civil wars are registered in the major datasets. That brings up a number of questions about the operational definitions of civil war that generally point in the direction of shifting the research attention from refining the quantitative parameters to grasping the essense of the phenomena in question. It is proposed that …
Putin's Counter-Terrorism
Russia’s struggle against terrorism has been used instrumentally by President Putin for achieving a range of international and domestic political goals. This trademark instrumentalization, however, has been stretched beyond its limits. The stagnant and deeply criminalized hostilities in Chechnya are now resonating across the North Caucasus; for a long time, Chechnya has been an isolated ‘black hole’–but now it is rather the eye of the storm engul…
Russia's Restless Frontier
The Evolution of Putin's Regime
Instrumentalizing Counterterrorism for Regime Consolidation in Putin's Russia
Since the late 1990s, Russia has been among the countries most painfully affected by terrorism and President Putin has shown little doubt and even much enthusiasm in joining the U.S.-led "war" against terrorism. Intertwined as they are, counterterrorism and Chechnya are still significantly different matters in Russian security policy, and this article aims at examining how the struggle against terrorism shapes essential features of Russia's forei…
Assessing Russia's cards
Moscow's growing influence in Central Asia stems from the evolution of the region's five states in close correspondence with Vladimir Putin's semi‐authoritarian model. Absent adequate resources and consistent policies, however, Russia must engage in complicated manoeuvring in order to advance its interests. The result is not overt geopolitical competition with the West—often defined by the tired notion of the 'Great Game'—but rather a series of a…
The Plight of the Russian Military
With the arrival of President Putin, the Russian military appeared to overcome the deep structural crisis that had lasted for most of the 1990s. Their identity of a "presidential" institution was reinforced and the contradictory traits in the new military culture were harmonized. That harmony, however, had an unstable foundation of inflated expectations and postponed choices. Putin has produced new blueprints for military reform but the military'…
The Russian Armed Forces
Russia's stance against secessions
Russia's policy towards, and interventions in, secessionist conflicts inside the state, in the immediate neighbourhood, and in Europe generally, has changed profoundly from the early 1990s. It is the fear of disintegration that is now the major factor in Moscow's policy making. Russia is set on the path of strategic retreat, which still allows for some interference, but hardly for constructive engagement. In the near future, there are several spe…
A New Look at Russia in Transition
While at times Post-Soviet Puzzles may be inconclusive or lack coverage of some important issues, it nevertheless presents valuable new perspectives. The low explanatory power of mainstream political studies on Russia and other post-Soviet entities is directly linked to their state-centered approach, so the need for different perspectives is growing. One perspective explores regional processes: these do not necessarily bring about disintegration,…
Russia's experiments and experience in conflict management and peacemaking
The emerging pattern of Russia's peacemaking in the former USSR raises a number of issues. First is the conflicting trajectories of official rhetoric on the one hand, and the military realities of intervention on the other. While in 1992 the rhetoric was quite restrained and the Russian military adopted an interventionist posture, by 1994 the former had become remarkably bellicose and the latter had turned somewhat cautious. The second issue is t…
From Our Readers
Peace-Keeping as a Challenge to European Borders
Zero Options' for Cooperative Denuclearization
The South Stream versus Nabucco pipeline race
The plan for the southern energy corridor delivering a new secure supply of natural gas to the European Union is shaped by projects for two pipelines—Nabucco and the South Stream. Economic rationales for both projects are far from solid as the prospects for returns on massive investments are doubtful due to uncertainty about demand. Much political effort has nevertheless been expended on advancing these competing ‘mega-projects’, which have acqui…
Russia's Restless Frontier
Instrumentalizing Counterterrorism for Regime Consolidation in Putin's Russia
Since the late 1990s, Russia has been among the countries most painfully affected by terrorism and President Putin has shown little doubt and even much enthusiasm in joining the U.S.-led "war" against terrorism. Intertwined as they are, counterterrorism and Chechnya are still significantly different matters in Russian security policy, and this article aims at examining how the struggle against terrorism shapes essential features of Russia's forei…
Putin's Counter-Terrorism
Russia’s struggle against terrorism has been used instrumentally by President Putin for achieving a range of international and domestic political goals. This trademark instrumentalization, however, has been stretched beyond its limits. The stagnant and deeply criminalized hostilities in Chechnya are now resonating across the North Caucasus; for a long time, Chechnya has been an isolated ‘black hole’–but now it is rather the eye of the storm engul…
Russia's experiments and experience in conflict management and peacemaking
The emerging pattern of Russia's peacemaking in the former USSR raises a number of issues. First is the conflicting trajectories of official rhetoric on the one hand, and the military realities of intervention on the other. While in 1992 the rhetoric was quite restrained and the Russian military adopted an interventionist posture, by 1994 the former had become remarkably bellicose and the latter had turned somewhat cautious. The second issue is t…
Russia's pivot to China goes astray
High-level declarations in Moscow and Beijing on the steady progress in upgrading their strategic partnership depart increasingly far from the reality of shrinking economic ties and diverging political perspectives. In late 2014, the dynamic development of this partnership appeared to have the potential of becoming a major shift in the fluid security balance in the Asia-Pacific region; in late 2015, however, the concerned neighbours have more rea…
Defining Civil War by Examining Post-Soviet Conflicts
Great many violent events happened during 1991–2005 in the 12 states that emerged after the collapse of the USSR but only a few civil wars are registered in the major datasets. That brings up a number of questions about the operational definitions of civil war that generally point in the direction of shifting the research attention from refining the quantitative parameters to grasping the essense of the phenomena in question. It is proposed that …
From West to South to North
It is hardly surprising that Russia's foreign policy is to a very large degree concerned with relations with its immediate neighbourhoods, which are uniquely diverse and often rich in violent conflicts. This short-range policy is a direct consequence of the country's enormous longitude, which provides it with more neighbours than any other state in the world. Obsession with relations with the United States constitutes an important exception to th…
Assessing Russia's cards
Moscow's growing influence in Central Asia stems from the evolution of the region's five states in close correspondence with Vladimir Putin's semi‐authoritarian model. Absent adequate resources and consistent policies, however, Russia must engage in complicated manoeuvring in order to advance its interests. The result is not overt geopolitical competition with the West—often defined by the tired notion of the 'Great Game'—but rather a series of a…
The Russian Armed Forces
Russia's stance against secessions
Russia's policy towards, and interventions in, secessionist conflicts inside the state, in the immediate neighbourhood, and in Europe generally, has changed profoundly from the early 1990s. It is the fear of disintegration that is now the major factor in Moscow's policy making. Russia is set on the path of strategic retreat, which still allows for some interference, but hardly for constructive engagement. In the near future, there are several spe…
Peace-Keeping as a Challenge to European Borders
Peace-Keeping as a Challenge to European Borders
Zero Options' for Cooperative Denuclearization
Russia's experiments and experience in conflict management and peacemaking
The emerging pattern of Russia's peacemaking in the former USSR raises a number of issues. First is the conflicting trajectories of official rhetoric on the one hand, and the military realities of intervention on the other. While in 1992 the rhetoric was quite restrained and the Russian military adopted an interventionist posture, by 1994 the former had become remarkably bellicose and the latter had turned somewhat cautious. The second issue is t…
From Our Readers
A New Look at Russia in Transition
While at times Post-Soviet Puzzles may be inconclusive or lack coverage of some important issues, it nevertheless presents valuable new perspectives. The low explanatory power of mainstream political studies on Russia and other post-Soviet entities is directly linked to their state-centered approach, so the need for different perspectives is growing. One perspective explores regional processes: these do not necessarily bring about disintegration,…
Russia's stance against secessions
Russia's policy towards, and interventions in, secessionist conflicts inside the state, in the immediate neighbourhood, and in Europe generally, has changed profoundly from the early 1990s. It is the fear of disintegration that is now the major factor in Moscow's policy making. Russia is set on the path of strategic retreat, which still allows for some interference, but hardly for constructive engagement. In the near future, there are several spe…
The Russian Armed Forces
The Plight of the Russian Military
With the arrival of President Putin, the Russian military appeared to overcome the deep structural crisis that had lasted for most of the 1990s. Their identity of a "presidential" institution was reinforced and the contradictory traits in the new military culture were harmonized. That harmony, however, had an unstable foundation of inflated expectations and postponed choices. Putin has produced new blueprints for military reform but the military'…
The Evolution of Putin's Regime
Instrumentalizing Counterterrorism for Regime Consolidation in Putin's Russia
Since the late 1990s, Russia has been among the countries most painfully affected by terrorism and President Putin has shown little doubt and even much enthusiasm in joining the U.S.-led "war" against terrorism. Intertwined as they are, counterterrorism and Chechnya are still significantly different matters in Russian security policy, and this article aims at examining how the struggle against terrorism shapes essential features of Russia's forei…
Assessing Russia's cards
Moscow's growing influence in Central Asia stems from the evolution of the region's five states in close correspondence with Vladimir Putin's semi‐authoritarian model. Absent adequate resources and consistent policies, however, Russia must engage in complicated manoeuvring in order to advance its interests. The result is not overt geopolitical competition with the West—often defined by the tired notion of the 'Great Game'—but rather a series of a…
Putin's Counter-Terrorism
Russia’s struggle against terrorism has been used instrumentally by President Putin for achieving a range of international and domestic political goals. This trademark instrumentalization, however, has been stretched beyond its limits. The stagnant and deeply criminalized hostilities in Chechnya are now resonating across the North Caucasus; for a long time, Chechnya has been an isolated ‘black hole’–but now it is rather the eye of the storm engul…
Russia's Restless Frontier
Defining Civil War by Examining Post-Soviet Conflicts
Great many violent events happened during 1991–2005 in the 12 states that emerged after the collapse of the USSR but only a few civil wars are registered in the major datasets. That brings up a number of questions about the operational definitions of civil war that generally point in the direction of shifting the research attention from refining the quantitative parameters to grasping the essense of the phenomena in question. It is proposed that …
From West to South to North
It is hardly surprising that Russia's foreign policy is to a very large degree concerned with relations with its immediate neighbourhoods, which are uniquely diverse and often rich in violent conflicts. This short-range policy is a direct consequence of the country's enormous longitude, which provides it with more neighbours than any other state in the world. Obsession with relations with the United States constitutes an important exception to th…
Energy Intrigues on the EU's Southern Flank
Russian-Ukrainian-EU energy relations are subject to a variety of political and economic stresses and strains. Applying game theory to the triangle suggests some possible scenarios
The South Stream versus Nabucco pipeline race
The plan for the southern energy corridor delivering a new secure supply of natural gas to the European Union is shaped by projects for two pipelines—Nabucco and the South Stream. Economic rationales for both projects are far from solid as the prospects for returns on massive investments are doubtful due to uncertainty about demand. Much political effort has nevertheless been expended on advancing these competing ‘mega-projects’, which have acqui…
Russia's Arctic Ambitions and Anxieties
[P]olicies based on the delusional but popular perception of the Arctic shelf as a ‘treasure chest’ of high-value resources that must be protected by military means have arrived at an inevitable dead end
What Drives Moscow's Military Adventurism
Moscow may not be very good at learning lessons from setbacks, and certainly tends to exaggerate its successes, but it has few doubts about the feasibility of ‘military solutions’ and even fewer reservations about reaching for them
Russia's pivot to China goes astray
High-level declarations in Moscow and Beijing on the steady progress in upgrading their strategic partnership depart increasingly far from the reality of shrinking economic ties and diverging political perspectives. In late 2014, the dynamic development of this partnership appeared to have the potential of becoming a major shift in the fluid security balance in the Asia-Pacific region; in late 2015, however, the concerned neighbours have more rea…
The Russian War Machine Fails the Tests of War
The Russian military has failed the tests of the Ukraine war, and its leadership and chain of command are seriously compromised. A costly modernization program failed to deliver the promised superiority in key weapon systems, offensive capabilities are exhausted, and the quality of manpower has deteriorated. The ill-fated reliance on the Wagner Group was a result of this degradation. Nuclear weapons cannot be used to break the pattern of slow-mov…
Political science (19 works) · Political economy (12 works) · Sociology (11 works) · Law (10 works) · Politics (10 works) · Economics (8 works) · Law (8 works) · Russia and Soviet political economy (8 works) · European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies (7 works) · Engineering (5 works)