Shiro Armstrong
Biographic Data
| ID | 3871000 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Shiro Armstrong |
| GIVEN NAMES | Shiro |
| FAMILY NAME | Armstrong |
| SIGNATURE | ARMSTRONG S |
| AFFILIATIONS | Australian National University |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-9756-7860 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 13 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 10 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 13 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2012 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 2 |
Responses of Australian Importers to the 2018‐2019 US‐China Trade War
Using comprehensive trade transaction and firm‐level data from 2015 to 2023, we examine how Australian firms adjusted import patterns following the US‐China trade war. Our method compares firms with high versus low exposure to products subject to Trump tariffs in 2018–2019, measured by their pre‐war import patterns. We find that highly exposed Australian firms increased their import dependency on Chinese goods in subsequent years. This suggests t…
Australia, Japan, and a Middle Power Approach to Securing Prosperity in Global Disorder
In an age of great power rivalry, economic coercion, and rising protectionism, middle powers that depend on an open, rules-based multilateral economic order must navigate growing uncertainty in their pursuit of economic security and prosperity. This article argues that rather than retreating into protectionism or narrowly pursuing self-sufficiency in the name of economic security, middle powers must reinforce economic openness, strengthen multila…
Is This Time Different? Indonesia's Response to Uncertainty
Indonesia faces domestic economic discontent and a hostile global environment. Less than a year into the Prabowo presidency, protests in August 2025 highlighted public frustration with weak job creation, high living costs and elite privileges. Pandemic scarring lingers, with millions pushed into insecure informal work. Tax revenue is constrained, while austerity, over-regulation and weak monetary transmission suppress demand and investment. These…
Why "Temu Trumpism" Failed in Australia
The landslide victory won by the incumbent centre-left Labor Party in Australia's May 2025 federal election capped a remarkable turnaround for a government that just months earlier appeared vulnerable to defeat at the hands of a conservative opposition that had flirted with populist appeals. We argue that Labor's re-election was down to both good timing and favourable long-term political dynamics. Drawing on electoral data, campaign discourse, an…
Learning the right policy lessons from Beijing’s campaign of trade disruption against Australia
Perceived threats to sovereignty stemming from trade exposure to China have led to calls for the Australian government to embrace the concept of ‘trusted trade’. This involves using policy levers to drive trade towards markets that have capitals more geopolitically aligned with Canberra and finds practical expression in forms such as ‘friend-shored’ supply chains. A theme of ‘trusted trade’ advocacy is the conscription of existing security-orient…
Rcep
East Asia’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement was concluded in a time of heightened uncertainty in the global economy and in the middle of the largest economic downturn in almost a century from a pandemic-induced global recession. The agreement consolidated the 10 member ASEAN’s free trade agreements with Australia and New Zealand, and the three northeast Asian economic powers China, Japan and South Korea. RCEP's econom…
World Trading System under Stress
The world trading system has been remarkably successful in many respects but is now under great strain. The causes are deep‐seated and require a strategic response. The future of the system depends critically on reinvigorating the WTO and policy change in the largest trading nations. Important measures are required to sustain the multilateral trading system, and urgent action is needed to avoid a scenario where the system fragments. The worst sce…
Fiscal Sustainability in Japan
Japanese government debt is at unprecedented levels with a gross debt to gross domestic product ratio of over 230 per cent and a net debt to gross domestic product ratio of 150 per cent. There are three big challenges to fiscal sustainability: the huge amount of government bonds outstanding; continued budget deficits; and the growing age‐related spending. The debt is sustainable as long as the market as a whole believes it is. The path to fiscal …
Asia's Intergenerational Challenges
The coming decades will present significant intergenerational policy challenges, as well as opportunities, for economies throughout the Asia Pacific region. Economic prosperity and its sustainability will be influenced by how we respond to a number of core drivers, including the re-emergence of Asia as a major centre of the global economy, rapid demographic change, environmental pressures and technological advances. These drivers will put additio…
The economic impact of the Australia–US free trade agreement
The Australia–United States Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA) came into effect in 2005. It was the second preferential trade agreement that Australia signed, after its agreement with Singapore, and marked a departure from the primacy of Australia's previous trade policy of unilateral and multilateral trade liberalisation toward preferential liberalisation. This paper assesses the economic effects of AUSFTA by applying the Productivity Commission's gr…
Survey of Recent Developments
As Indonesia heads to the polls in 2014, its economy is slowing. The end of the commodities boom and the global return to more normal monetary policy has exposed some weaknesses. Exchange-rate depreciation has absorbed some of the adjustment; but structural rigidities are still likely to limit the expansion of non-commodity sectors, and the increased fuel-subsidy bill for imported oil is putting pressure on the current account and the budget. The…
Economic Cooperation in the A sia‐ P acific and the Global Trading System
The global trading system has underpinned huge growth in trade and the integration of economies that have signed on to it, whether they are political allies or not—none more so than in the A sia‐ P acific region. It has prevented political disputes between J apan and C hina adversely affecting trade and investment flows between the two countries. The W orld T rade O rganisation continues to play an important role. This is evidenced by the number …
Taiwan's Asia Pacific economic strategies after the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement
Taiwan has had discriminatory trade and investment policies towards China, severely limiting economic engagement across the Strait. Not having free and open trade with China, one of the largest and most important parts of the East Asian economy, has resulted in Taiwan's underperforming in attracting foreign direct investment, effectively cut Taiwan off from participating fully in East Asian production networks and prevented the deepening of its s…
The economic impact of the Australia–US free trade agreement
The Australia–United States Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA) came into effect in 2005. It was the second preferential trade agreement that Australia signed, after its agreement with Singapore, and marked a departure from the primacy of Australia's previous trade policy of unilateral and multilateral trade liberalisation toward preferential liberalisation. This paper assesses the economic effects of AUSFTA by applying the Productivity Commission's gr…
Learning the right policy lessons from Beijing’s campaign of trade disruption against Australia
Perceived threats to sovereignty stemming from trade exposure to China have led to calls for the Australian government to embrace the concept of ‘trusted trade’. This involves using policy levers to drive trade towards markets that have capitals more geopolitically aligned with Canberra and finds practical expression in forms such as ‘friend-shored’ supply chains. A theme of ‘trusted trade’ advocacy is the conscription of existing security-orient…
Rcep
East Asia’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement was concluded in a time of heightened uncertainty in the global economy and in the middle of the largest economic downturn in almost a century from a pandemic-induced global recession. The agreement consolidated the 10 member ASEAN’s free trade agreements with Australia and New Zealand, and the three northeast Asian economic powers China, Japan and South Korea. RCEP's econom…
Taiwan's Asia Pacific economic strategies after the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement
Taiwan has had discriminatory trade and investment policies towards China, severely limiting economic engagement across the Strait. Not having free and open trade with China, one of the largest and most important parts of the East Asian economy, has resulted in Taiwan's underperforming in attracting foreign direct investment, effectively cut Taiwan off from participating fully in East Asian production networks and prevented the deepening of its s…
Is This Time Different? Indonesia's Response to Uncertainty
Indonesia faces domestic economic discontent and a hostile global environment. Less than a year into the Prabowo presidency, protests in August 2025 highlighted public frustration with weak job creation, high living costs and elite privileges. Pandemic scarring lingers, with millions pushed into insecure informal work. Tax revenue is constrained, while austerity, over-regulation and weak monetary transmission suppress demand and investment. These…
Taiwan's Asia Pacific economic strategies after the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement
Taiwan has had discriminatory trade and investment policies towards China, severely limiting economic engagement across the Strait. Not having free and open trade with China, one of the largest and most important parts of the East Asian economy, has resulted in Taiwan's underperforming in attracting foreign direct investment, effectively cut Taiwan off from participating fully in East Asian production networks and prevented the deepening of its s…
Survey of Recent Developments
As Indonesia heads to the polls in 2014, its economy is slowing. The end of the commodities boom and the global return to more normal monetary policy has exposed some weaknesses. Exchange-rate depreciation has absorbed some of the adjustment; but structural rigidities are still likely to limit the expansion of non-commodity sectors, and the increased fuel-subsidy bill for imported oil is putting pressure on the current account and the budget. The…
Economic Cooperation in the A sia‐ P acific and the Global Trading System
The global trading system has underpinned huge growth in trade and the integration of economies that have signed on to it, whether they are political allies or not—none more so than in the A sia‐ P acific region. It has prevented political disputes between J apan and C hina adversely affecting trade and investment flows between the two countries. The W orld T rade O rganisation continues to play an important role. This is evidenced by the number …
The economic impact of the Australia–US free trade agreement
The Australia–United States Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA) came into effect in 2005. It was the second preferential trade agreement that Australia signed, after its agreement with Singapore, and marked a departure from the primacy of Australia's previous trade policy of unilateral and multilateral trade liberalisation toward preferential liberalisation. This paper assesses the economic effects of AUSFTA by applying the Productivity Commission's gr…
Fiscal Sustainability in Japan
Japanese government debt is at unprecedented levels with a gross debt to gross domestic product ratio of over 230 per cent and a net debt to gross domestic product ratio of 150 per cent. There are three big challenges to fiscal sustainability: the huge amount of government bonds outstanding; continued budget deficits; and the growing age‐related spending. The debt is sustainable as long as the market as a whole believes it is. The path to fiscal …
Asia's Intergenerational Challenges
The coming decades will present significant intergenerational policy challenges, as well as opportunities, for economies throughout the Asia Pacific region. Economic prosperity and its sustainability will be influenced by how we respond to a number of core drivers, including the re-emergence of Asia as a major centre of the global economy, rapid demographic change, environmental pressures and technological advances. These drivers will put additio…
World Trading System under Stress
The world trading system has been remarkably successful in many respects but is now under great strain. The causes are deep‐seated and require a strategic response. The future of the system depends critically on reinvigorating the WTO and policy change in the largest trading nations. Important measures are required to sustain the multilateral trading system, and urgent action is needed to avoid a scenario where the system fragments. The worst sce…
Rcep
East Asia’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement was concluded in a time of heightened uncertainty in the global economy and in the middle of the largest economic downturn in almost a century from a pandemic-induced global recession. The agreement consolidated the 10 member ASEAN’s free trade agreements with Australia and New Zealand, and the three northeast Asian economic powers China, Japan and South Korea. RCEP's econom…
Learning the right policy lessons from Beijing’s campaign of trade disruption against Australia
Perceived threats to sovereignty stemming from trade exposure to China have led to calls for the Australian government to embrace the concept of ‘trusted trade’. This involves using policy levers to drive trade towards markets that have capitals more geopolitically aligned with Canberra and finds practical expression in forms such as ‘friend-shored’ supply chains. A theme of ‘trusted trade’ advocacy is the conscription of existing security-orient…
Australia, Japan, and a Middle Power Approach to Securing Prosperity in Global Disorder
In an age of great power rivalry, economic coercion, and rising protectionism, middle powers that depend on an open, rules-based multilateral economic order must navigate growing uncertainty in their pursuit of economic security and prosperity. This article argues that rather than retreating into protectionism or narrowly pursuing self-sufficiency in the name of economic security, middle powers must reinforce economic openness, strengthen multila…
Is This Time Different? Indonesia's Response to Uncertainty
Indonesia faces domestic economic discontent and a hostile global environment. Less than a year into the Prabowo presidency, protests in August 2025 highlighted public frustration with weak job creation, high living costs and elite privileges. Pandemic scarring lingers, with millions pushed into insecure informal work. Tax revenue is constrained, while austerity, over-regulation and weak monetary transmission suppress demand and investment. These…
Why "Temu Trumpism" Failed in Australia
The landslide victory won by the incumbent centre-left Labor Party in Australia's May 2025 federal election capped a remarkable turnaround for a government that just months earlier appeared vulnerable to defeat at the hands of a conservative opposition that had flirted with populist appeals. We argue that Labor's re-election was down to both good timing and favourable long-term political dynamics. Drawing on electoral data, campaign discourse, an…
Responses of Australian Importers to the 2018‐2019 US‐China Trade War
Using comprehensive trade transaction and firm‐level data from 2015 to 2023, we examine how Australian firms adjusted import patterns following the US‐China trade war. Our method compares firms with high versus low exposure to products subject to Trump tariffs in 2018–2019, measured by their pre‐war import patterns. We find that highly exposed Australian firms increased their import dependency on Chinese goods in subsequent years. This suggests t…
Economics (10 works) · Political science (8 works) · Business (7 works) · China (7 works) · International trade (6 works) · Global trade and economics (5 works) · International economics (5 works) · Politics (5 works) · Finance (4 works) · Law (4 works)