Tricia Bacon
Biographic Data
| ID | 3947264 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Tricia Bacon |
| GIVEN NAMES | Tricia |
| FAMILY NAME | Bacon |
| SIGNATURE | BACON T |
| AFFILIATIONS | American University |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-3059-7448 |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 16 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 32 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 16 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2014 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 4 |
From Waves to Questions
How We Assess Violent Non-State Actor Risk
A Fragile Equilibrium
Helping or hurting? The impact of foreign fighters on militant group behavior
How do foreign fighters affect militant group behavior? Recent studies have examined the impact of foreign fighters on broader conflict outcomes, but we explore their specific impact on group behavior. Using foreign fighter data, we find that the presence of foreign fighters is positively related to group longevity, use of suicide operations, and the geographic spread of its operations. We elaborate on these findings in a case study of foreign fi…
Terror in Transition
This book provides a groundbreaking analysis of how religious terrorist groups manage and adapt to major shifts in leadership. It argues that how successors position themselves in terms of the founder shapes a terrorist group’s future course and examines how and why different types of successors choose to pursue incremental or discontinuous change.
De-Talibanization and the Onset of Insurgency in Afghanistan
This article examines the reasons for the rise of the Taliban and the onset of the insurgency in Afghanistan after the 2001 U.S. invasion, using counterfactual and path dependence analysis to bolster its arguments. We argue that the U.S. decision to de-Talibanize was a critical juncture, after which the rise of insurgency was far harder to prevent. The total rejection of the Taliban translated into the under-representation of Pashtuns in the Afgh…
The Domestication of Al-Shabaab
How much influence did foreign fighters exert over al-Shabaab’s insurgency in Somalia? An emerging policy consensus is that foreign fighters exert decisive influence on insurgencies, even affecting conflict duration, intensity, and outcomes. Nevertheless this study argues that foreign combatants in Somalia have exerted a more limited influence than this consensus suggests, though this influence has varied over time. Foreign fighters were present …
Preventing the Next Lashkar-e-Tayyiba Attack
November 26, 2018 marked the 10-year anniversary of Lashkar-e-Tayyiba’s terrorist attacks in Mumbai, India. Though there were no shortage of headline grabbing attacks at the time, the duration and
Why Terrorist Groups Form International Alliances
Tricia Bacon examines partnerships formed by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Al-Qaida, and Egyptian jihadist groups, among others, in a series of case studies and offers insights useful to counterterrorism efforts to disrupt these relationships
Slipping the Leash? Pakistan's Relationship with the Afghan Taliban
Pakistan's leverage over the Taliban comes primarily from providing the group sanctuary, making it unlikely that Pakistan will oust the Taliban from its territory
The Evolution of Pakistan's Lashkar-e-Tayyiba Terrorist Group
Why Terrorist Groups Form International Alliances
Is the Enemy of My Enemy My Friend
The terrorist organizations that have posed the greatest threat to international security are those with allies. Terrorist groups at the core of alliance networks, particularly the Islamic State and al Qaeda, define the threat today, as they are able to accrue and disperse the benefits of their alliances—including greater lethality, longevity, and resilience—to their partners. While the consequences of these alliances are clear, their causes rema…
Al Qaeda and the Islamic State's Break
Employing counterfactuals to assess individual and systemic explanations for the split between Al Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), this article concludes that individual leaders factor greatly into terrorist alliance outcomes. Osama bin Laden was instrumental in keeping Al Qaeda and ISIS allied as he prioritized unity and handled internal disputes more deftly than his successor, Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri. Although a troubled al…
Hurdles to International Terrorist Alliances
Despite the threat posed by international terrorist alliances, the conditions that foster and inhibit these relationships remain poorly understood. When seeking allies outside of their primary conflict and political market, groups struggle to forge credible commitments, particularly the requisite ‘shadows of the future’ and reputations conducive to cooperation, without third-party enforcers. Given their suspicious nature and strong in-group ident…
Disaggregating and Defeating Terrorist Safe Havens
Terrorist organizations’ physical safe havens continue to shape the terrorist threat to the United States by extending the groups’ longevity and increasing the threat they pose. As a result, eliminating terrorist safe havens has been a key component of U.S. counterterrorism policy since at least 2001. However, some scholars challenged the post-9/11 policy consensus that terrorists find sanctuary in weak states and so-called ungoverned spaces. Thi…
The Domestication of Al-Shabaab
How much influence did foreign fighters exert over al-Shabaab’s insurgency in Somalia? An emerging policy consensus is that foreign fighters exert decisive influence on insurgencies, even affecting conflict duration, intensity, and outcomes. Nevertheless this study argues that foreign combatants in Somalia have exerted a more limited influence than this consensus suggests, though this influence has varied over time. Foreign fighters were present …
Al Qaeda and the Islamic State's Break
Employing counterfactuals to assess individual and systemic explanations for the split between Al Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), this article concludes that individual leaders factor greatly into terrorist alliance outcomes. Osama bin Laden was instrumental in keeping Al Qaeda and ISIS allied as he prioritized unity and handled internal disputes more deftly than his successor, Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri. Although a troubled al…
Is the Enemy of My Enemy My Friend
The terrorist organizations that have posed the greatest threat to international security are those with allies. Terrorist groups at the core of alliance networks, particularly the Islamic State and al Qaeda, define the threat today, as they are able to accrue and disperse the benefits of their alliances—including greater lethality, longevity, and resilience—to their partners. While the consequences of these alliances are clear, their causes rema…
Hurdles to International Terrorist Alliances
Despite the threat posed by international terrorist alliances, the conditions that foster and inhibit these relationships remain poorly understood. When seeking allies outside of their primary conflict and political market, groups struggle to forge credible commitments, particularly the requisite ‘shadows of the future’ and reputations conducive to cooperation, without third-party enforcers. Given their suspicious nature and strong in-group ident…
Disaggregating and Defeating Terrorist Safe Havens
Terrorist organizations’ physical safe havens continue to shape the terrorist threat to the United States by extending the groups’ longevity and increasing the threat they pose. As a result, eliminating terrorist safe havens has been a key component of U.S. counterterrorism policy since at least 2001. However, some scholars challenged the post-9/11 policy consensus that terrorists find sanctuary in weak states and so-called ungoverned spaces. Thi…
De-Talibanization and the Onset of Insurgency in Afghanistan
This article examines the reasons for the rise of the Taliban and the onset of the insurgency in Afghanistan after the 2001 U.S. invasion, using counterfactual and path dependence analysis to bolster its arguments. We argue that the U.S. decision to de-Talibanize was a critical juncture, after which the rise of insurgency was far harder to prevent. The total rejection of the Taliban translated into the under-representation of Pashtuns in the Afgh…
Slipping the Leash? Pakistan's Relationship with the Afghan Taliban
Pakistan's leverage over the Taliban comes primarily from providing the group sanctuary, making it unlikely that Pakistan will oust the Taliban from its territory
Disaggregating and Defeating Terrorist Safe Havens
Terrorist organizations’ physical safe havens continue to shape the terrorist threat to the United States by extending the groups’ longevity and increasing the threat they pose. As a result, eliminating terrorist safe havens has been a key component of U.S. counterterrorism policy since at least 2001. However, some scholars challenged the post-9/11 policy consensus that terrorists find sanctuary in weak states and so-called ungoverned spaces. Thi…
Al Qaeda and the Islamic State's Break
Employing counterfactuals to assess individual and systemic explanations for the split between Al Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), this article concludes that individual leaders factor greatly into terrorist alliance outcomes. Osama bin Laden was instrumental in keeping Al Qaeda and ISIS allied as he prioritized unity and handled internal disputes more deftly than his successor, Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri. Although a troubled al…
Hurdles to International Terrorist Alliances
Despite the threat posed by international terrorist alliances, the conditions that foster and inhibit these relationships remain poorly understood. When seeking allies outside of their primary conflict and political market, groups struggle to forge credible commitments, particularly the requisite ‘shadows of the future’ and reputations conducive to cooperation, without third-party enforcers. Given their suspicious nature and strong in-group ident…
Why Terrorist Groups Form International Alliances
Tricia Bacon examines partnerships formed by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Al-Qaida, and Egyptian jihadist groups, among others, in a series of case studies and offers insights useful to counterterrorism efforts to disrupt these relationships
Slipping the Leash? Pakistan's Relationship with the Afghan Taliban
Pakistan's leverage over the Taliban comes primarily from providing the group sanctuary, making it unlikely that Pakistan will oust the Taliban from its territory
The Evolution of Pakistan's Lashkar-e-Tayyiba Terrorist Group
Why Terrorist Groups Form International Alliances
Is the Enemy of My Enemy My Friend
The terrorist organizations that have posed the greatest threat to international security are those with allies. Terrorist groups at the core of alliance networks, particularly the Islamic State and al Qaeda, define the threat today, as they are able to accrue and disperse the benefits of their alliances—including greater lethality, longevity, and resilience—to their partners. While the consequences of these alliances are clear, their causes rema…
The Domestication of Al-Shabaab
How much influence did foreign fighters exert over al-Shabaab’s insurgency in Somalia? An emerging policy consensus is that foreign fighters exert decisive influence on insurgencies, even affecting conflict duration, intensity, and outcomes. Nevertheless this study argues that foreign combatants in Somalia have exerted a more limited influence than this consensus suggests, though this influence has varied over time. Foreign fighters were present …
Preventing the Next Lashkar-e-Tayyiba Attack
November 26, 2018 marked the 10-year anniversary of Lashkar-e-Tayyiba’s terrorist attacks in Mumbai, India. Though there were no shortage of headline grabbing attacks at the time, the duration and
De-Talibanization and the Onset of Insurgency in Afghanistan
This article examines the reasons for the rise of the Taliban and the onset of the insurgency in Afghanistan after the 2001 U.S. invasion, using counterfactual and path dependence analysis to bolster its arguments. We argue that the U.S. decision to de-Talibanize was a critical juncture, after which the rise of insurgency was far harder to prevent. The total rejection of the Taliban translated into the under-representation of Pashtuns in the Afgh…
Terror in Transition
This book provides a groundbreaking analysis of how religious terrorist groups manage and adapt to major shifts in leadership. It argues that how successors position themselves in terms of the founder shapes a terrorist group’s future course and examines how and why different types of successors choose to pursue incremental or discontinuous change.
A Fragile Equilibrium
Helping or hurting? The impact of foreign fighters on militant group behavior
How do foreign fighters affect militant group behavior? Recent studies have examined the impact of foreign fighters on broader conflict outcomes, but we explore their specific impact on group behavior. Using foreign fighter data, we find that the presence of foreign fighters is positively related to group longevity, use of suicide operations, and the geographic spread of its operations. We elaborate on these findings in a case study of foreign fi…
How We Assess Violent Non-State Actor Risk
From Waves to Questions
Political science (12 works) · Law (11 works) · Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence (10 works) · Law (8 works) · Political economy (7 works) · Sociology (7 works) · Terrorism (7 works) · Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East (6 works) · Computer Science (5 works) · Economics (5 works)