Jae Edmonds
Biographic Data
| ID | 4017452 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Jae Edmonds |
| GIVEN NAMES | Jae |
| FAMILY NAME | Edmonds |
| SIGNATURE | EDMONDS J |
| AFFILIATIONS | Joint Global Change Research Institute |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-3210-9209 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 40 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 340 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 40 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1998 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 3 |
Understanding regional heterogeneity in energy systems and energy affordability
Fossil fuel extraction plays a major role in Alaska's economy, with taxes and royalties paid by oil producers contributing significantly to revenue at the state and local levels. This dependence on the fossil fuel industry leaves the state and its communities vulnerable to global and regional changes in energy prices. Meanwhile, remote communities in Arctic Alaska face persistent residential energy insecurity due to high fuel prices despite the s…
Rate and growth limits for carbon capture and storage
CO 2 capture and storage (CCS) in geological reservoirs is expected to play a large role in low-emissions scenarios from multi-sector human Earth system models. Yet these scenarios have often projected near-term CCS deployments that far exceed what is currently planned, l et al one operational. They have also failed to consider regional differences in capacity to deploy large-scale CO 2 capture, transport, and subsurface injection. Here, we updat…
Residential energy demand, emissions, and expenditures at regional and income-decile level for alternative futures
Income and its distribution profile are important determinants of residential energy demand and carry direct implications for human well-being and climate. We explore the sensitivity of residential energy systems to income growth and distribution across shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathways scenarios using a global, integrated, multisector dynamics model, Global Change Analysis Model, which tracks national/regional ho…
Taking stock of nationally determined contributions
Rapid implementation of mitigation measures can facilitate decarbonization of the global steel sector in 1.5°C-consistent pathways
The path to 1.5 °C requires ratcheting of climate pledges
Ratcheting of climate pledges needed to limit peak global warming
IPCC emission scenarios
Long-term global emission scenarios enable the analysis of future climate change, impacts, and response strategies by providing insight into possible future developments and linking these different climate research elements. Such scenarios play a crucial role in the climate change literature informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Assessment Reports (ARs) and support policymakers. This article reviews the evolution of emi…
Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit
Change in the air The 2016 Paris Agreement set the ambitious goals of keeping global temperature rise this century below 2°C, or even better, 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. Substantial interventions are required to meet these goals, particularly for industrialized countries. Duan et al. projected that China will need to reduce its carbon emissions by more than 90% and its energy consumption by almost 40% to do its share in reaching the 1.5°C t…
Climate policy models need to get real about people — here’s how
To achieve deep cuts in US emissions, state-driven policy is only slightly more expensive than nationally uniform policy
The surprisingly inexpensive cost of state-driven emission control strategies
Implications of different income distributions for future residential energy demand in the U.S
Future income distribution will affect energy demand and its interactions with various societal priorities. Most future model simulations assume a single average consumer and thus miss this important demand determinant. We quantify long-term implications of alternative future income distributions for state-level residential energy demand, investment, greenhouse gas, and pollutant emission patterns in the United States (U.S.) by incorporating inco…
Geospatial assessment of the economic opportunity for reforestation in Maryland, USA
Afforestation and reforestation have the potential to provide effective climate mitigation through forest carbon sequestration. Strategic reforestation activities, which account for both carbon sequestration potential (CSP) and economic opportunity, can provide attractive options for policymakers who must manage competing social and environmental goals. In particular, forest carbon pricing can incentivize reforestation on private land, but this m…
The role of direct air capture and negative emissions technologies in the shared socioeconomic pathways towards +1.5 °C and +2 °C futures
The development of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and associated integrated assessment modeling (IAM) exercises did not include direct air capture with carbon storage (DACCS) in their scenarios. However, recent more optimistic cost estimates and commercial or pilot-scale DACCS plants have led to increased attention to this technology in both IAM literature and in real-world policy discussions. DACCS is an energy-consuming negative emiss…
Global agricultural responses to interannual climate and biophysical variability
Agricultural production is highly sensitive to changes in climate and weather patterns. The focus of the great majority of studies assessing climate impacts on agriculture has been on mean changes in agricultural responses. However, the manner in which global agricultural markets respond to the interannual variability of the climate and biophysical shocks is poorly understood. Here we show a strong transmission of interannual variations in climat…
Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement
Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.…
Integrated energy-water-land nexus planning to guide national policy
Despite broad consensus on the benefits of a nexus approach to multi-sector planning, actual implementation in government and other decision-making institutions is still rare. This study presents an approach to conducting integrated energy-water-land (EWL) planning, using Uruguay as an example. This stakeholder-driven study focuses on assessing the EWL nexus implications of actual planned policies aimed at strengthening three of Uruguay’s key exp…
Future climate impacts on global agricultural yields over the 21st century
Analyses of the future impacts of changing crop yields on agricultural production, prices, food security, and GDP growth using Integrated Assessment models require country-level yield shocks due to changing weather conditions, for a wide range of crops and warming scenarios. We characterize impacts of different climate futures on crop yields for individual countries and years. We use historical crop yield and weather data to empirically estimate …
GCAM v5.1
This paper describes GCAM v5.1, an open source model that represents the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems. GCAM is a market equilibrium model, is global in scope, and operates from 1990 to 2100 in 5-year time steps. It can be used to examine, for example, how changes in population, income, or technology cost might alter crop production, energy demand, or water withdrawals, or how changes in one region's demand f…
Climate and carbon budget implications of linked future changes in CO 2 and non-CO 2 forcing
The approximate proportional relationship between cumulative carbon emissions and instantaneous global temperature rise (the carbon budget approximation) has proven to be a useful concept to translate policy-relevant temperature objectives into CO 2 emissions pathways. However, when non-CO 2 forcing is changing along with CO 2 forcing, errors in the approximation increases. Using the GCAM model to produce an ensemble of ~3000 scenarios, we show t…
Stranded asset implications of the Paris Agreement in Latin America and the Caribbean
Achieving the Paris Agreement’s near-term goals (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) and long-term temperature targets could result in pre-mature retirement, or stranding, of carbon-intensive assets before the end of their useful lifetime. We use an integrated assessment model to quantify the implications of the Paris Agreement for stranded assets in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a developing region with the least carbon-intens…
Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Future changes in climate and socioeconomic systems will drive both the availability and use of water resources, leading to evolutions in scarcity. The contributions of both systems can be quantified individually to understand the impacts around the world, but also combined to explore how the coevolution of energy-water-land systems affects not only the driver behind water scarcity changes, but how human and climate systems interact in tandem to …
Net-zero emissions energy systems
Path to zero carbon emissions Models show that to avert dangerous levels of climate change, global carbon dioxide emissions must fall to zero later this century. Most of these emissions arise from energy use. Davis et al. review what it would take to achieve decarbonization of the energy system. Some parts of the energy system are particularly difficult to decarbonize, including aviation, long-distance transport, steel and cement production, and …
Global economic consequences of deploying bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered a potential source of net negative carbon emissions and, if deployed at sufficient scale, could help reduce carbon dioxide emissions and concentrations. However, the viability and economic consequences of large-scale BECCS deployment are not fully understood. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) integrated assessment model to explore the potential global and regional econ…
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications
This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible…
A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities
IPCC emission scenarios
Long-term global emission scenarios enable the analysis of future climate change, impacts, and response strategies by providing insight into possible future developments and linking these different climate research elements. Such scenarios play a crucial role in the climate change literature informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Assessment Reports (ARs) and support policymakers. This article reviews the evolution of emi…
International Equity and Differentiation in Global Warming Policy
International climate policy architectures
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
The representative concentration pathways
This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m 2 . The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration be…
Rcp4.5
Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m −2 in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value. Simulated with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), RCP4.5 includes long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover in a global economic framework. RCP4.5 was updated from earlier GCAM scenarios to incorporate historical emissions and la…
A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities
Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals
This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier a…
Sensitivity of climate mitigation strategies to natural disturbances
The present and future concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide depends on both anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of carbon. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on a progressive transition to carbon-efficient technologies to reduce industrial emissions, substantially supported by policies to maintain or enhance the terrestrial carbon stock in forests and other ecosystems. This strategy may be challenged if terrestrial se…
A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research
This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axe…
A new scenario framework for climate change research
The new scenario framework facilitates the coupling of multiple socioeconomic reference pathways with climate model products using the representative concentration pathways. This will allow for improved assessment of climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation. Assumptions about climate policy play a major role in linking socioeconomic futures with forcing and climate outcomes. The paper presents the concept of shared climate policy assumptions as…
The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives
Can Paris pledges avert severe climate change?
Reducing risks of severe outcomes and improving chances of limiting warming to 2°C
A short note on integrated assessment modeling approaches
The contribution of Paris to limit global warming to 2 °C
The international community has set a goal to limit global warming to 2 °C. Limiting global warming to 2 °C is a challenging goal and will entail a dramatic transformation of the global energy system, largely complete by 2040. As part of the work toward this goal, countries have been submitting their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, indicating their emissions reduct…
Global economic consequences of deploying bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered a potential source of net negative carbon emissions and, if deployed at sufficient scale, could help reduce carbon dioxide emissions and concentrations. However, the viability and economic consequences of large-scale BECCS deployment are not fully understood. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) integrated assessment model to explore the potential global and regional econ…
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications
This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible…
Net-zero emissions energy systems
Path to zero carbon emissions Models show that to avert dangerous levels of climate change, global carbon dioxide emissions must fall to zero later this century. Most of these emissions arise from energy use. Davis et al. review what it would take to achieve decarbonization of the energy system. Some parts of the energy system are particularly difficult to decarbonize, including aviation, long-distance transport, steel and cement production, and …
GCAM v5.1
This paper describes GCAM v5.1, an open source model that represents the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems. GCAM is a market equilibrium model, is global in scope, and operates from 1990 to 2100 in 5-year time steps. It can be used to examine, for example, how changes in population, income, or technology cost might alter crop production, energy demand, or water withdrawals, or how changes in one region's demand f…
Climate and carbon budget implications of linked future changes in CO 2 and non-CO 2 forcing
The approximate proportional relationship between cumulative carbon emissions and instantaneous global temperature rise (the carbon budget approximation) has proven to be a useful concept to translate policy-relevant temperature objectives into CO 2 emissions pathways. However, when non-CO 2 forcing is changing along with CO 2 forcing, errors in the approximation increases. Using the GCAM model to produce an ensemble of ~3000 scenarios, we show t…
Stranded asset implications of the Paris Agreement in Latin America and the Caribbean
Achieving the Paris Agreement’s near-term goals (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) and long-term temperature targets could result in pre-mature retirement, or stranding, of carbon-intensive assets before the end of their useful lifetime. We use an integrated assessment model to quantify the implications of the Paris Agreement for stranded assets in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a developing region with the least carbon-intens…
Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Future changes in climate and socioeconomic systems will drive both the availability and use of water resources, leading to evolutions in scarcity. The contributions of both systems can be quantified individually to understand the impacts around the world, but also combined to explore how the coevolution of energy-water-land systems affects not only the driver behind water scarcity changes, but how human and climate systems interact in tandem to …
Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement
Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.…
Integrated energy-water-land nexus planning to guide national policy
Despite broad consensus on the benefits of a nexus approach to multi-sector planning, actual implementation in government and other decision-making institutions is still rare. This study presents an approach to conducting integrated energy-water-land (EWL) planning, using Uruguay as an example. This stakeholder-driven study focuses on assessing the EWL nexus implications of actual planned policies aimed at strengthening three of Uruguay’s key exp…
Future climate impacts on global agricultural yields over the 21st century
Analyses of the future impacts of changing crop yields on agricultural production, prices, food security, and GDP growth using Integrated Assessment models require country-level yield shocks due to changing weather conditions, for a wide range of crops and warming scenarios. We characterize impacts of different climate futures on crop yields for individual countries and years. We use historical crop yield and weather data to empirically estimate …
Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit
Change in the air The 2016 Paris Agreement set the ambitious goals of keeping global temperature rise this century below 2°C, or even better, 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. Substantial interventions are required to meet these goals, particularly for industrialized countries. Duan et al. projected that China will need to reduce its carbon emissions by more than 90% and its energy consumption by almost 40% to do its share in reaching the 1.5°C t…
Economics (31 works) · Climate change (30 works) · Environmental Science (29 works) · Climate Change Policy and Economics (28 works) · Natural resource economics (26 works) · Computer Science (15 works) · Engineering (15 works) · Greenhouse gas (15 works) · Business (13 works) · Environmental Impact and Sustainability (12 works)