Peter C M Molenaar
Biographic Data
| ID | 4095258 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Peter C M Molenaar |
| GIVEN NAMES | Peter C M |
| FAMILY NAME | Molenaar |
| SIGNATURE | MOLENAAR P C M |
| AFFILIATIONS | Pennsylvania State University |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-0026-0756 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 51 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 38 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 51 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1985 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2024 |
| H-INDEX | 4 |
Evaluating Discrete Time Methods for Subgrouping Continuous Processes
Rapid developments over the last several decades have brought increased focus and attention to the role of time scales and heterogeneity in the modeling of human processes. To address these emerging questions, subgrouping methods developed in the discrete-time framework—such as the vector autoregression (VAR)—have undergone widespread development to identify shared nomothetic trends from idiographic modeling results. Given the dependence of VAR-b…
Subgrouping with Chain Graphical VAR Models
Recent years have seen the emergence of an "idio-thetic" class of methods to bridge the gap between nomothetic and idiographic inference. These methods describe nomothetic trends in idiographic processes by pooling intraindividual information across individuals to inform group-level inference or vice versa. The current work introduces a novel "idio-thetic" model: the subgrouped chain graphical vector autoregression (scGVAR). The scGVAR is unique …
Unsupervised Model Construction in Continuous-Time
Many of the advancements reconciling individual- and group-level results have occurred in the context of a discrete-time modeling framework. Discrete-time models are intuitive and offer relatively simple interpretations for the resulting dynamic structures; however, they do not possess the flexibility of models fitted in the continuous-time framework. We introduce ct-gimme, a continuous-time extension of the group iterative multiple model estimat…
Examining timing effects in the intergenerational transmission of anxiety and depressive symptoms: A genetically informed study
The present study examined genetic, prenatal, and postnatal environmental pathways in the intergenerational transmission of anxiety and depressive symptoms from parents to early adolescents (when these symptoms start to increase), while considering timing effects of exposure to parent anxiety and depressive symptoms postnatally. The sample was from the Early Growth and Development Study, including 561 adopted children (57% male, 55% White, 13% Bl…
On Subgrouping Continuous Processes in Discrete Time
Recent years have witnessed a boom in the application of dynamic network models such as vector autoregression (VAR) models and their various flavors to the study of human behavior and psychology. V
Describing and Controlling Multivariate Nonlinear Dynamics: A Boolean Network Approach
We introduce a discrete-time dynamical system method, the Boolean network method, that may be useful for modeling, studying, and controlling nonlinear dynamics in multivariate systems, particularly when binary time-series are available. We introduce the method in three steps: inference of the temporal relations as Boolean functions, extraction of attractors and assignment of desirability based on domain knowledge, and design of network control to…
A Square-Root Second-Order Extended Kalman Filtering Approach for Estimating Smoothly Time-Varying Parameters
Researchers collecting intensive longitudinal data (ILD) are increasingly looking to model psychological processes, such as emotional dynamics, that organize and adapt across time in complex and meaningful ways. This is also the case for researchers looking to characterize the impact of an intervention on individual behavior. To be useful, statistical models must be capable of characterizing these processes as complex, time-dependent phenomenon, …
Dynamics of learning: Time-varying feedback effects within the intelligent tutoring system of structure strategy (ITSS)
Problems with Centrality Measures in Psychopathology Symptom Networks: Why Network Psychometrics Cannot Escape Psychometric Theory
Understanding patterns of symptom co-occurrence is one of the most difficult challenges in psychopathology research. Do symptoms co-occur because of a latent factor, or might they directly and causally influence one another? Motivated by such questions, there has been a surge of interest in network analyses that emphasize the putatively direct role symptoms play in influencing each other. In this critical paper, we highlight conceptual and statis…
A Tribute to the Mind, Methodology and Mentoring of Wayne Velicer
Wayne Velicer is remembered for a mind where mathematical concepts and calculations intrigued him, behavioral science beckoned him, and people fascinated him. Born in Green Bay, Wisconsin on March 4, 1944, he was raised on a farm, although early influences extended far beyond that beginning. His Mathematics BS and Psychology minor at Wisconsin State University in Oshkosh, and his PhD in Quantitative Psychology from Purdue led him to a fruitful an…
Adolescents’ emotion system dynamics: Network-based analysis of physiological and emotional experience
An individual's emotions system can be conceived of as a synchronized, coordinated, and/or emergent combination of physiology, experience, and behavioral components. Together, the interplay among these components produce emotional experiences through coordinated excitatory positive feedback (i.e., the mutual amplification of emotion concordance) and/or inhibitory negative feedback (i.e., the damping of emotion regulation) processes. Different sys…
Equivalent Dynamic Models
Equivalences of two classes of dynamic models for weakly stationary multivariate time series are discussed: dynamic factor models and autoregressive models. It is shown that exploratory dynamic factor models can be rotated, yielding an infinite set of equivalent solutions for any observed series. It also is shown that dynamic factor models with lagged factor loadings are not equivalent to the currently popular state-space models, and that restric…
(Re)evaluating the Implications of the Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Model Through Likelihood Ratio Tests of Its Initial Conditions
The autoregressive latent trajectory (ALT) model synthesizes the autoregressive model and the latent growth curve model. The ALT model is flexible enough to produce a variety of discrepant model-implied change trajectories. While some researchers consider this a virtue, others have cautioned that this may confound interpretations of the model's parameters. In this article, we show that some-but not all-of these interpretational difficulties may b…
Determining the number of factors in P-technique factor analysis
Determining the number of factors is a critical first step in exploratory factor analysis. Although various criteria and methods for determining the number of factors have been evaluated in the usual between-subjects R-technique factor analysis, there is still question of how these methods perform in within-subjects P-technique factor analysis. A novel feature of P-technique data is that observations are usually sequentially dependent in some way…
Some Behaviorial Science Measurement Concerns and Proposals
Primarily from a measurement standpoint, we question some basic beliefs and procedures characterizing the scientific study of human behavior. The relations between observed and unobserved variables are key to an empirical approach to building explanatory theories and we are especially concerned about how the former are used as proxies for the latter. We believe that behavioral science can profitably reconsider the prevailing version of this arran…
A Rejoinder
Three commentaries on the Nesselroade and Molenaar target article in this issue are responded to in the interest of elaborating and defending the points of view expressed in our article. The commentaries feature philosophy of science, general structural modeling, and broad behavioral research perspectives. Responding to the commentaries afforded us the opportunity to clarify further matters that we deem critical to the fundamental matter of measu…
Dealing with Multiple Solutions in Structural Vector Autoregressive Models
Structural vector autoregressive models (VARs) hold great potential for psychological science, particularly for time series data analysis. They capture the magnitude, direction of influence, and temporal (lagged and contemporaneous) nature of relations among variables. Unified structural equation modeling (uSEM) is an optimal structural VAR instantiation, according to large-scale simulation studies, and it is implemented within an SEM framework. …
Testing for Granger Causality in the Frequency Domain: A Phase Resampling Method
This article introduces phase resampling, an existing but rarely used surrogate data method for making statistical inferences of Granger causality in frequency domain time series analysis. Granger causality testing is essential for establishing causal relations among variables in multivariate dynamic processes. However, testing for Granger causality in the frequency domain is challenging due to the nonlinear relation between frequency domain meas…
Individual Day-to-Day Process of Social Anxiety in Vulnerable College Students
Transitions requiring the creation of new social networks may be challenging for individuals vulnerable to social anxiety, which may hinder successful adjustment. Using person-specific methodology, this study examined social anxiety in vulnerable university freshman away from home during their first semester of college to understand how day-to-day processes of social anxiety influenced future social anxiety and social withdrawal. Participants com…
An Interpretation of Part of Gilbert Gottlieb’s Legacy: Developmental Systems Theory Contra Developmental Behavior Genetics
The main theme of this paper concerns the persistent critique of Gilbert Gottlieb on developmental behavior genetics and my reactions to this critique, the latter changing from rejection to complete acceptation. Concise characterizations of developmental behavior genetics, developmental systems the ory (to which Gottlieb made essential contributions), ergodic theory (the implications of which underlie my change of opinion), as well as their relev…
Author’s Response to Commentaries on: An Interpretation of Part of Gilbert Gottlieb’s Legacy: Developmental Systems Theory Contra Developmental Behavior Genetics
An Idiographic Examination of Day-to-Day Patterns of Substance Use Craving, Negative Affect, and Tobacco Use Among Young Adults in Recovery
Psychological constructs, such as negative affect and substance use cravings that closely predict relapse, show substantial intra-individual day-to-day variability. This intra-individual variability of relevant psychological states combined with the "one day of a time" nature of sustained abstinence warrant a day-to-day investigation of substance use recovery. This study examines day-to-day associations among substance use cravings, negative affe…
Mapping Temporal Dynamics in Social Interactions With Unified Structural Equation Modeling: A Description and Demonstration Revealing Time-Dependent Sex Differences in Play Behavior
Developmental science is rich with observations of social interactions, but few available methodological and statistical approaches take full advantage of the information provided by these data. The authors propose implementation of the unified structural equation model (uSEM), a network analysis technique, for observational data coded repeatedly across time; uSEM captures the temporal dynamics underlying changes in behavior at the individual lev…
Time Series Analysis for Psychological Research
Time series analysis is a statistical methodology appropriate for longitudinal research designs that involve single subjects that are measured repeatedly at regular intervals over a large number of observations. The focus is on within-person variability rather than between-person variability. A time series analysis can investigate the underlying naturalistic process, the pattern of change over time, or evaluate the effects of either a planned or …
Group search algorithm recovers effective connectivity maps for individuals in homogeneous and heterogeneous samples
Effects of Adult Day Care on Daily Stress of Caregivers: A Within-Person Approach
Total exposure to stressors and stress appraisals decreased significantly over time on ADS days compared with non-ADS days. Most of this difference was accounted by the time the person with dementia was away from the caregiver, but there were also significant reductions in behavioral problems during the evening and improved sleep immediately following ADS use. DISCUSSION. ADS use lowered caregivers' exposure to stressors and may improve behavior …
Analyzing developmental processes on an individual level using nonstationary time series modeling
Individuals change over time, often in complex ways. Generally, studies of change over time have combined individuals into groups for analysis, which is inappropriate in most, if not all, studies of development. The authors explain how to identify appropriate levels of analysis (individual vs. group) and demonstrate how to estimate changes in developmental processes over time using a multivariate nonstationary time series model. They apply this m…
The integrated trait–state model
Psychological Methodology will Change Profoundly Due to the Necessity to Focus on Intra-individual Variation
Adolescents’ emotion system dynamics: Network-based analysis of physiological and emotional experience
An individual's emotions system can be conceived of as a synchronized, coordinated, and/or emergent combination of physiology, experience, and behavioral components. Together, the interplay among these components produce emotional experiences through coordinated excitatory positive feedback (i.e., the mutual amplification of emotion concordance) and/or inhibitory negative feedback (i.e., the damping of emotion regulation) processes. Different sys…
Examining timing effects in the intergenerational transmission of anxiety and depressive symptoms: A genetically informed study
The present study examined genetic, prenatal, and postnatal environmental pathways in the intergenerational transmission of anxiety and depressive symptoms from parents to early adolescents (when these symptoms start to increase), while considering timing effects of exposure to parent anxiety and depressive symptoms postnatally. The sample was from the Early Growth and Development Study, including 561 adopted children (57% male, 55% White, 13% Bl…
A Dynamic Factor Model for the Analysis of Multivariate Time Series
As a method to ascertain the structure of intra-individual variation, P -technique has met difficulties in the handling of a lagged covariance structure. A new statistical technique, coined dynamic factor analysis, is proposed, which accounts for the entire lagged covariance function of an arbitrary second order stationary time series. Moreover, dynamic factor analysis is shown to be applicable to a relatively short stretch of observations and th…
Dynamic Factor Analysis in the Frequency Domain: Causal Modeling of Multivariate Psychophysiological Time Series
Factor analysis of a multivariate time series by means of frequency domain or spectral techniques does not yield a causal model of the time series. We propose a solution to this long-standing problem, namely unitary rotation to minimum phase-lag in the frequency domain. The method is illustrated with applications to simulated and real multivariate time series. The latter applications involve topographic analysis of the multichannel EEG, including…
A developmental model of hierarchical stage structure in objective moral judgements
Testing Specific Hypotheses Concerning Latent Group Differences in Multi-group Covariance Structure Analysis with Structured Means
This article concerns multi-group covariance structure analysis with structured means. The traditional latent selection model is formulated as a special case of phenotypic selection, that is, selection based not on latent variables, but on observed variables. This formulation has the advantage that it enables one to test very specific hypotheses concerning selection on latent variables. Illustrations are given using simulated and real data
Estimating and Testing the Sources of Evoked Potentials in the Brain
The source of an event related brain potential (ERP) is estimated from multivariate measurements of this ERP on the head under several mathematical and physical constraints on the parameters of the source model. We will discuss statistical aspects of standard methods to estimate these parameters and their confidence intervals. In addition new principled tests of the goodness of fit as well as of differences between estimated sources are proposed …
A Comparison of Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood and Asymptotically Distribution-Free Dynamic Factor Analysis Parameter Estimation in Fitting Covariance-Structure Models to Block-Toeplitz Matrices Representi…
The study of intraindividual variability pervades empirical inquiry in virtually all subdisciplines of psychology. The statistical analysis of multivariate time-series data - a central product of intraindividual investigations -requires special modeling techniques. The dynamic factor model (DFM), which is a generalization of the traditional common factor model, has been proposed by Molenaar (1985) for systematically extracting information from mu…
A Structural Modeling Approach to a Multilevel Random Coefficients Model
A method for estimating the random coefficients model using covariance structure modeling is presented. This method allows one to estimate both fixed and random effects. A way of translating the general linear mixed model into a structural equation modeling (SEM) format is presented. In particular, a LISREL setup for the multiple group linear latent growth curve model is illustrated with suggestions on ways to parameterize more complex models. To…
Invariants et variabilités dans les sciences cognitives
« Comme toutes les sciences, les sciences cognitives sont confrontées à la variabilité des phénomènes qu'elles étudient, et cherchent à dégager de cette variabilité un ensemble de régularités, d'invariants, sur lesquels ancrer les connaissances. Cette quête d'invariance implique des choix quant aux formes de variabilité à prendre en considération. Certaines, jugées pertinentes pour l'objet d'étude, sont utilisées ou manipulées pour en extraire de…
A Manifesto on Psychology as Idiographic Science: Bringing the Person Back Into Scientific Psychology, This Time Forever
Psychology is focused on variation between cases (interindividual variation). Results thus obtained are considered to be generalizable to the understanding and explanation of variation within single cases (intraindividual variation). It is indicated, however, that the direct consequences of the classical ergodic theorems for psychology and psychometrics invalidate this conjectured generalizability: only under very strict conditions-which are hard…
Relating Factor Models for Longitudinal Data to Quasi-Simplex and Narma Models
In this article we show the one-factor model can be rewritten as a quasi-simplex model. Using this result along with addition theorems from time series analysis, we describe a common general model, the nonstationary autoregressive moving average (NARMA) model, that includes as a special case, any latent variable model with continuous indicators and continuous latent variables. As an example, we show the NARMA representations of the linear growth …
Statistical Modeling of the Individual: Rationale and Application of Multivariate Stationary Time Series Analysis
Results obtained with interindividual techniques in a representative sample of a population are not necessarily generalizable to the individual members of this population. In this article the specific condition is presented that must be satisfied to generalize from the interindividual level to the intraindividual level. A way to investigate whether this condition is satisfied is by means of multivariate time series analysis. More generally, time …
The Effect of Individual Differences in Factor Loadings on the Standard Factor Model
It is shown that the population-covariance matrix of a heterogeneous factor model may be indistinguishable from that of a standard factor model and that the standard likelihood-ratio goodness-of-fit statistic has but little power in detecting loading heterogeneity. The relation between loading heterogeneity and factor score reliability is studied and it is recommended that non-normality of the test-score distributions be tested to use factor scor…
Developmental Systems Theory contra Developmental Behavior Genetics Gilbert Gottlieb, in Memoriam
In this contribution it is shown that Gilbert Gottlieb's theoretical contributions to developmental science, in particular his focus on individual development and his discussion of the limitations of developmental behavior genetics in this respect, are vindicated by recent theoretical developments in mathematical biology and psychometrics
The integrated trait–state model
Psychological Methodology will Change Profoundly Due to the Necessity to Focus on Intra-individual Variation
The New Person-Specific Paradigm in Psychology
Most research methodology in the behavioral sciences employs interindividual analyses, which provide information about the state of affairs of the population. However, as shown by classical mathematical-statistical theorems (the ergodic theorems), such analyses do not provide information for, and cannot be applied at, the level of the individual, except on rare occasions when the processes of interest meet certain stringent conditions. When psych…
On the Impossibility of Acquiring More Powerful Structures: A Neglected Alternative
This article discusses Fodor’s demonstration of the impossibility of acquiring more powerful structures. Fodor’s extreme functionalism is shown to be unwarranted insofar as it leads to a categorical exclusion of the structural processes involved in cognitive development. An explicit consideration of these processes indicates the possibility of more powerful structures, emerging through self-organization in a way that is distinct from the combinat…
Issues with a Rule-Sampling Theory of Conservation Learning from a Structuralist Point of View
This article discusses Brainerd’s rule-sampling theory of conservation learning and outlines an alternative structuralist model. It is argued that Brainerd’s theory does not account for the growth and changing structure of competence underlying the ontogenesis of conservation, because of (1) the lack of any model of the origin of the set of rules, (2) the lack of any model of recognition of applicability of rules in transfer tasks, and (3) the in…
The Recoverability of P-technique Factor Analysis
It seems that just when we are about to lay P-technique factor analysis finally to rest as obsolete because of newer, more sophisticated multivariate time-series models using latent variables-dynamic factor models-it rears its head to inform us that an obituary may be premature. We present the results of some simulations demonstrating that even though it does not explicitly model lagged information, P-technique's ability to recover the parameters…
Analyzing developmental processes on an individual level using nonstationary time series modeling
Individuals change over time, often in complex ways. Generally, studies of change over time have combined individuals into groups for analysis, which is inappropriate in most, if not all, studies of development. The authors explain how to identify appropriate levels of analysis (individual vs. group) and demonstrate how to estimate changes in developmental processes over time using a multivariate nonstationary time series model. They apply this m…
Continuing Commentary
Contends that in their examination of arguments forwarded by sociobiologists to account for key features of human development, R. M. Lerner and A. von Eye (see record 1992-23071-001) misunderstand the role of general theory in science. They also fail to characterize the work of sociobiologists accurately and inaccurately portray the current power of behavior genetic research
Commentary
Comments on M. D. Lewis's analysis of stagewise development and specificity in neo-Piagetian theory, in which Lewis takes recourse to concepts of nonlinear dynamics to resolve the problem of inter- and intra-individual diversity in cognitive organization. The comment focuses on the question of whether general stages, domain specificity, and individual diversity are compatible from a nonlinear, dynamic perspective
Commentary
In recent years, some behavior geneticists have applied the statistical procedures of the population-genetic approach within evolutionary biology to the study of psychological development. A widely recognized deficiency in the population-genetic approach is the fact that it does not deal with individual development. Thus, the application of the statistical methods of population genetics - primarily the analysis of variance - to the study of the c…
Effects of Adult Day Care on Daily Stress of Caregivers: A Within-Person Approach
Total exposure to stressors and stress appraisals decreased significantly over time on ADS days compared with non-ADS days. Most of this difference was accounted by the time the person with dementia was away from the caregiver, but there were also significant reductions in behavioral problems during the evening and improved sleep immediately following ADS use. DISCUSSION. ADS use lowered caregivers' exposure to stressors and may improve behavior …
Time Series Analysis for Psychological Research
Time series analysis is a statistical methodology appropriate for longitudinal research designs that involve single subjects that are measured repeatedly at regular intervals over a large number of observations. The focus is on within-person variability rather than between-person variability. A time series analysis can investigate the underlying naturalistic process, the pattern of change over time, or evaluate the effects of either a planned or …
Computer Science (34 works) · Mathematics (31 works) · Psychology (30 works) · Statistics (25 works) · Econometrics (21 works) · Mental Health Research Topics (19 works) · Multivariate statistics (12 works) · Social Psychology (12 works) · Artificial Intelligence (11 works) · Epistemology (11 works)