Andrew J Dowdle
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 4122445 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Andrew J Dowdle |
| PRENOMES | Andrew J |
| SOBRENOME | Dowdle |
| ASSINATURA | DOWDLE A J |
| AFILIAÇÕES | University of Arkansas at Fayetteville |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-5293-8023 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 19 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 114 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 19 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2001 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2024 |
| ÍNDICE H | 6 |
Forecasting the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination
Donald Trump’s bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is unique in that no former president since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 has sought the nomination of their political party, nor has a candidate sought the nomination while facing multiple criminal indictments. With data from previous nomination cycles, we use presidential nominations from 1980 to 2020 to create a forecast for the 2024 Republican primaries. The variables in the equa…
The Rule, Not the Exception
Thousands of studies have examined party competition in the American states, finding significant consequences for voter turnout, policy adoptions, and more. Long-term patterns of party control have received less attention. Here, we reexamine the operationalization of party competition. We then update Klarner’s state partisan balance data to include state house and senate composition and gubernatorial vote share since the 1930s, adding—in light of…
Fundamentals Matter
Previous studies used pre-primary variables (e.g., endorsements, national polls, and fundraising) and momentum variables from the Iowa and New Hampshire contests to predict presidential nomination outcomes. Yet, races with no elite favorite and no clear frontrunner in polls, such as in the 2020 Democratic race, are more difficult to forecast. We replicate and extend two forecasting models from 1980 to 2016 used by Dowdle et al. (2016) to predict …
Forecasting Presidential Nominations in 2016
A number of scholars successfully modeled and predicted presidential nomination outcomes from 1996–2008. However, dramatic changes occurred in subsequent years that would seem to make replicating these results challenging at best. Building on those earlier studies, we utilize a series of OLS models that included measures of preprimary resources and early campaign successes or failures to forecast that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump would win th…
Party cohesion in presidential races
Scholars have long been examining the presidential nomination process in the United States. In addition to studies considering the selection mechanism itself, there has been a movement towards analysing the contest even before voting begins. Campaign finance allows for a reliable and valid means to examine the year prior to the nomination with data that are not just vast in quantity but also consistent across time. Donors who gave to multiple cam…
The Invisible Hands of Political Parties in Presidential Elections
This book looks at networks of individual donors during early stages of presidential primary electons to determine party unity. It directly challenges the commonly-held perception that a "divisive" pr
The Political Geography of Campaign Finance
In fundraising, potential candidates who do not collect sizable amounts of “early money” may be effectively eliminated even before the start of the Iowa Caucus. This winnowing raises concern about the impact money has on narrowing the field of candidates from whom voters can choose. To better grasp patterns of successful fundraising, we explore where candidates obtain funds during the preprimary and primary periods. We use individual contribution…
Resource Allocation and Military Budgetary Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa
While scholars have tried to explain the variation in spending by African countries on conventional forces or auxiliary forces, no study has been done that compares the resource allocation process for both. Governments elect to spend more money on conventional forces when faced with military conflicts as opposed to potential threats. By contrast, interstate conflicts suppress spending on irregular forces. The best predictor of state spending on a…
New Issues in Presidential Nomination Politics
The Party Decides
Journal Article The Party Decides: Presidential Nominations Before and After Reform by Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hanes Noel, and John Zaller Get access The Party Decides: Presidential Nominations Before and After Reform by Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hanes Noel, and John Zaller. Chicago, IL, University of Chicago Press, 2008. 416 pp. Cloth, $65.00; paper, $20.00. Andrew Dowdle Andrew Dowdle University of Arkansas Search for other works by this auth…
The Viability Primary
Public support before the primaries is the strongest predictor of presidential candidate attrition and of the aggregate primary vote. Yet little is known about the factors that drive candidate preferences before the primaries. This article examines pre-primary candidate support in national Gallup polls for open presidential nomination races from 1976 to 2004. The study finds that candidate background characteristics have marginal effects on mass …
Civil Wars, International Conflicts and Other Determinants of Paramilitary Strength in Sub-Saharan Africa
Previous research on African military spending suggests the existence of civil strife as the best predictor of high levels of military spending. However, little is known about why some African nations maintain strong 'auxiliary' or paramilitary organizations while others do not. This study finds that the presence of civil or interstate war does not strengthen reserve or irregular forces. Civilian governments promote strong paramilitary organizati…
Do Early Birds Get the Worm? Improving Timeliness of Presidential Nomination Forecasts
This research explores whether data on polling, campaign expenditures, and cash reserves of campaigns collected in the year prior to the presidential election can produce accurate predictions of party nominees. Findings suggest that efforts to forecast nominations may begin as early as the first quarter of the year before the election for Republicans, where the trade‐off between timeliness and accuracy is negligible. In Democratic races where a s…
Bumps in the Road to the White House
The 2000 Republican nomination battle illustrates the waning importance of campaign momentum to winning the presidential nomination and the increasing significance of early fundraising and organization. The reform movement of the 1970s established a new presidential nomination structure, which placed a premium on building momentum by winning early contests such as the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. However, so many recent front-runn…
The New Hampshire Effect in Presidential Nominations
The New Hampshire Effect in Presidential Nominations
In order to demonstrate challenges to conventional wisdom (Aldrich 1980a, b; Bartels 1985 1988; Orren and Polsby 1987), this article develops several forecasting models of the presidential primary vote to compare to a baseline model of the aggregate primary vote (APV) that uses pre-primary and New Hampshire primary data. The models indicate that candidates’ Gallup poll position and cash reserves are significant positive predictors of a candidates…
How Important Are Iowa and New Hampshire to Winning Post-Reform Presidential Nominations
How Important Are Iowa and New Hampshire to Winning Post-Reform Presidential Nominations
While conventional wisdom holds that the first delegate selection events in Iowa and New Hampshire are important influences on the outcome of the presidential selection process, scholars increasingly question whether victories in these ‘bellwether’ contests are sufficient to propel darkhorse candidates to the nomination. This study utilizes four OLS regression models to predict nomination outcomes from 1980 to 1996 where the incumbent president d…
Is the Exhibition Season Becoming more Important to Forecasting Presidential Nominations
The New Hampshire Effect in Presidential Nominations
In order to demonstrate challenges to conventional wisdom (Aldrich 1980a, b; Bartels 1985 1988; Orren and Polsby 1987), this article develops several forecasting models of the presidential primary vote to compare to a baseline model of the aggregate primary vote (APV) that uses pre-primary and New Hampshire primary data. The models indicate that candidates’ Gallup poll position and cash reserves are significant positive predictors of a candidates…
How Important Are Iowa and New Hampshire to Winning Post-Reform Presidential Nominations
While conventional wisdom holds that the first delegate selection events in Iowa and New Hampshire are important influences on the outcome of the presidential selection process, scholars increasingly question whether victories in these ‘bellwether’ contests are sufficient to propel darkhorse candidates to the nomination. This study utilizes four OLS regression models to predict nomination outcomes from 1980 to 1996 where the incumbent president d…
The Viability Primary
Public support before the primaries is the strongest predictor of presidential candidate attrition and of the aggregate primary vote. Yet little is known about the factors that drive candidate preferences before the primaries. This article examines pre-primary candidate support in national Gallup polls for open presidential nomination races from 1976 to 2004. The study finds that candidate background characteristics have marginal effects on mass …
Do Early Birds Get the Worm? Improving Timeliness of Presidential Nomination Forecasts
This research explores whether data on polling, campaign expenditures, and cash reserves of campaigns collected in the year prior to the presidential election can produce accurate predictions of party nominees. Findings suggest that efforts to forecast nominations may begin as early as the first quarter of the year before the election for Republicans, where the trade‐off between timeliness and accuracy is negligible. In Democratic races where a s…
Bumps in the Road to the White House
The 2000 Republican nomination battle illustrates the waning importance of campaign momentum to winning the presidential nomination and the increasing significance of early fundraising and organization. The reform movement of the 1970s established a new presidential nomination structure, which placed a premium on building momentum by winning early contests such as the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. However, so many recent front-runn…
Is the Exhibition Season Becoming more Important to Forecasting Presidential Nominations
The Rule, Not the Exception
Thousands of studies have examined party competition in the American states, finding significant consequences for voter turnout, policy adoptions, and more. Long-term patterns of party control have received less attention. Here, we reexamine the operationalization of party competition. We then update Klarner’s state partisan balance data to include state house and senate composition and gubernatorial vote share since the 1930s, adding—in light of…
Civil Wars, International Conflicts and Other Determinants of Paramilitary Strength in Sub-Saharan Africa
Previous research on African military spending suggests the existence of civil strife as the best predictor of high levels of military spending. However, little is known about why some African nations maintain strong 'auxiliary' or paramilitary organizations while others do not. This study finds that the presence of civil or interstate war does not strengthen reserve or irregular forces. Civilian governments promote strong paramilitary organizati…
Party cohesion in presidential races
Scholars have long been examining the presidential nomination process in the United States. In addition to studies considering the selection mechanism itself, there has been a movement towards analysing the contest even before voting begins. Campaign finance allows for a reliable and valid means to examine the year prior to the nomination with data that are not just vast in quantity but also consistent across time. Donors who gave to multiple cam…
How Important Are Iowa and New Hampshire to Winning Post-Reform Presidential Nominations
How Important Are Iowa and New Hampshire to Winning Post-Reform Presidential Nominations
While conventional wisdom holds that the first delegate selection events in Iowa and New Hampshire are important influences on the outcome of the presidential selection process, scholars increasingly question whether victories in these ‘bellwether’ contests are sufficient to propel darkhorse candidates to the nomination. This study utilizes four OLS regression models to predict nomination outcomes from 1980 to 1996 where the incumbent president d…
Is the Exhibition Season Becoming more Important to Forecasting Presidential Nominations
Bumps in the Road to the White House
The 2000 Republican nomination battle illustrates the waning importance of campaign momentum to winning the presidential nomination and the increasing significance of early fundraising and organization. The reform movement of the 1970s established a new presidential nomination structure, which placed a premium on building momentum by winning early contests such as the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. However, so many recent front-runn…
The New Hampshire Effect in Presidential Nominations
The New Hampshire Effect in Presidential Nominations
In order to demonstrate challenges to conventional wisdom (Aldrich 1980a, b; Bartels 1985 1988; Orren and Polsby 1987), this article develops several forecasting models of the presidential primary vote to compare to a baseline model of the aggregate primary vote (APV) that uses pre-primary and New Hampshire primary data. The models indicate that candidates’ Gallup poll position and cash reserves are significant positive predictors of a candidates…
Do Early Birds Get the Worm? Improving Timeliness of Presidential Nomination Forecasts
This research explores whether data on polling, campaign expenditures, and cash reserves of campaigns collected in the year prior to the presidential election can produce accurate predictions of party nominees. Findings suggest that efforts to forecast nominations may begin as early as the first quarter of the year before the election for Republicans, where the trade‐off between timeliness and accuracy is negligible. In Democratic races where a s…
Civil Wars, International Conflicts and Other Determinants of Paramilitary Strength in Sub-Saharan Africa
Previous research on African military spending suggests the existence of civil strife as the best predictor of high levels of military spending. However, little is known about why some African nations maintain strong 'auxiliary' or paramilitary organizations while others do not. This study finds that the presence of civil or interstate war does not strengthen reserve or irregular forces. Civilian governments promote strong paramilitary organizati…
The Party Decides
Journal Article The Party Decides: Presidential Nominations Before and After Reform by Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hanes Noel, and John Zaller Get access The Party Decides: Presidential Nominations Before and After Reform by Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hanes Noel, and John Zaller. Chicago, IL, University of Chicago Press, 2008. 416 pp. Cloth, $65.00; paper, $20.00. Andrew Dowdle Andrew Dowdle University of Arkansas Search for other works by this auth…
The Viability Primary
Public support before the primaries is the strongest predictor of presidential candidate attrition and of the aggregate primary vote. Yet little is known about the factors that drive candidate preferences before the primaries. This article examines pre-primary candidate support in national Gallup polls for open presidential nomination races from 1976 to 2004. The study finds that candidate background characteristics have marginal effects on mass …
Resource Allocation and Military Budgetary Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa
While scholars have tried to explain the variation in spending by African countries on conventional forces or auxiliary forces, no study has been done that compares the resource allocation process for both. Governments elect to spend more money on conventional forces when faced with military conflicts as opposed to potential threats. By contrast, interstate conflicts suppress spending on irregular forces. The best predictor of state spending on a…
New Issues in Presidential Nomination Politics
The Political Geography of Campaign Finance
In fundraising, potential candidates who do not collect sizable amounts of “early money” may be effectively eliminated even before the start of the Iowa Caucus. This winnowing raises concern about the impact money has on narrowing the field of candidates from whom voters can choose. To better grasp patterns of successful fundraising, we explore where candidates obtain funds during the preprimary and primary periods. We use individual contribution…
The Invisible Hands of Political Parties in Presidential Elections
This book looks at networks of individual donors during early stages of presidential primary electons to determine party unity. It directly challenges the commonly-held perception that a "divisive" pr
Party cohesion in presidential races
Scholars have long been examining the presidential nomination process in the United States. In addition to studies considering the selection mechanism itself, there has been a movement towards analysing the contest even before voting begins. Campaign finance allows for a reliable and valid means to examine the year prior to the nomination with data that are not just vast in quantity but also consistent across time. Donors who gave to multiple cam…
Forecasting Presidential Nominations in 2016
A number of scholars successfully modeled and predicted presidential nomination outcomes from 1996–2008. However, dramatic changes occurred in subsequent years that would seem to make replicating these results challenging at best. Building on those earlier studies, we utilize a series of OLS models that included measures of preprimary resources and early campaign successes or failures to forecast that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump would win th…
Fundamentals Matter
Previous studies used pre-primary variables (e.g., endorsements, national polls, and fundraising) and momentum variables from the Iowa and New Hampshire contests to predict presidential nomination outcomes. Yet, races with no elite favorite and no clear frontrunner in polls, such as in the 2020 Democratic race, are more difficult to forecast. We replicate and extend two forecasting models from 1980 to 2016 used by Dowdle et al. (2016) to predict …
The Rule, Not the Exception
Thousands of studies have examined party competition in the American states, finding significant consequences for voter turnout, policy adoptions, and more. Long-term patterns of party control have received less attention. Here, we reexamine the operationalization of party competition. We then update Klarner’s state partisan balance data to include state house and senate composition and gubernatorial vote share since the 1930s, adding—in light of…
Forecasting the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination
Donald Trump’s bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is unique in that no former president since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 has sought the nomination of their political party, nor has a candidate sought the nomination while facing multiple criminal indictments. With data from previous nomination cycles, we use presidential nominations from 1980 to 2020 to create a forecast for the 2024 Republican primaries. The variables in the equa…
Law (19 obras) · Political science (19 obras) · Politics (19 obras) · Presidential system (17 obras) · Law (16 obras) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (15 obras) · Nomination (11 obras) · Economics (9 obras) · Public Administration (8 obras) · Political economy (7 obras)