Randall E Adkins
Biographic Data
| ID | 4122446 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Randall E Adkins |
| GIVEN NAMES | Randall E |
| FAMILY NAME | Adkins |
| SIGNATURE | ADKINS R E |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Nebraska at Omaha |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 13 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 128 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 12 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 1 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2001 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2024 |
| H-INDEX | 6 |
Forecasting the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination
Donald Trump’s bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is unique in that no former president since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 has sought the nomination of their political party, nor has a candidate sought the nomination while facing multiple criminal indictments. With data from previous nomination cycles, we use presidential nominations from 1980 to 2020 to create a forecast for the 2024 Republican primaries. The variables in the equa…
Fundamentals Matter
Previous studies used pre-primary variables (e.g., endorsements, national polls, and fundraising) and momentum variables from the Iowa and New Hampshire contests to predict presidential nomination outcomes. Yet, races with no elite favorite and no clear frontrunner in polls, such as in the 2020 Democratic race, are more difficult to forecast. We replicate and extend two forecasting models from 1980 to 2016 used by Dowdle et al. (2016) to predict …
Forecasting Presidential Nominations in 2016
A number of scholars successfully modeled and predicted presidential nomination outcomes from 1996–2008. However, dramatic changes occurred in subsequent years that would seem to make replicating these results challenging at best. Building on those earlier studies, we utilize a series of OLS models that included measures of preprimary resources and early campaign successes or failures to forecast that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump would win th…
Cases in Congressional Campaigns
1. Playing Defense in a Year of Change (Randall E. Adkins and David A. Dulio) 2. Sinking in The Perfect Storm: Knollenberg vs. Peters in Michigan's Ninth Congressional District (David A. Dulio and John S. Klemanski) 3. All Politics is Still Local: McConnell vs. Lunsford in Kentucky's Senate Race (Jasmine L. Farrier) 4. Running Scared from the Hill and at Home: Kirk vs. Seals in Illinois' Tenth Congressional District (Wayne P. Steger) 5. Defending…
The Viability Primary
Public support before the primaries is the strongest predictor of presidential candidate attrition and of the aggregate primary vote. Yet little is known about the factors that drive candidate preferences before the primaries. This article examines pre-primary candidate support in national Gallup polls for open presidential nomination races from 1976 to 2004. The study finds that candidate background characteristics have marginal effects on mass …
Do Early Birds Get the Worm? Improving Timeliness of Presidential Nomination Forecasts
This research explores whether data on polling, campaign expenditures, and cash reserves of campaigns collected in the year prior to the presidential election can produce accurate predictions of party nominees. Findings suggest that efforts to forecast nominations may begin as early as the first quarter of the year before the election for Republicans, where the trade‐off between timeliness and accuracy is negligible. In Democratic races where a s…
Bumps in the Road to the White House
The 2000 Republican nomination battle illustrates the waning importance of campaign momentum to winning the presidential nomination and the increasing significance of early fundraising and organization. The reform movement of the 1970s established a new presidential nomination structure, which placed a premium on building momentum by winning early contests such as the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. However, so many recent front-runn…
The New Hampshire Effect in Presidential Nominations
The New Hampshire Effect in Presidential Nominations
In order to demonstrate challenges to conventional wisdom (Aldrich 1980a, b; Bartels 1985 1988; Orren and Polsby 1987), this article develops several forecasting models of the presidential primary vote to compare to a baseline model of the aggregate primary vote (APV) that uses pre-primary and New Hampshire primary data. The models indicate that candidates’ Gallup poll position and cash reserves are significant positive predictors of a candidates…
The Money Primary
Since 1980, the positive influence of candidate performance and campaign organization explains much of the variation in fundraising during the pre‐primary season. Candidate performance is measured by national poll results, change in candidate viability, and length of candidacy. Campaign organization includes the amount of money the candidate's campaign spent on fundraising, size of the candidate's electoral constituency, and whether the candidate…
How Important Are Iowa and New Hampshire to Winning Post-Reform Presidential Nominations
How Important Are Iowa and New Hampshire to Winning Post-Reform Presidential Nominations
While conventional wisdom holds that the first delegate selection events in Iowa and New Hampshire are important influences on the outcome of the presidential selection process, scholars increasingly question whether victories in these ‘bellwether’ contests are sufficient to propel darkhorse candidates to the nomination. This study utilizes four OLS regression models to predict nomination outcomes from 1980 to 1996 where the incumbent president d…
Is the Exhibition Season Becoming more Important to Forecasting Presidential Nominations
The New Hampshire Effect in Presidential Nominations
In order to demonstrate challenges to conventional wisdom (Aldrich 1980a, b; Bartels 1985 1988; Orren and Polsby 1987), this article develops several forecasting models of the presidential primary vote to compare to a baseline model of the aggregate primary vote (APV) that uses pre-primary and New Hampshire primary data. The models indicate that candidates’ Gallup poll position and cash reserves are significant positive predictors of a candidates…
The Money Primary
Since 1980, the positive influence of candidate performance and campaign organization explains much of the variation in fundraising during the pre‐primary season. Candidate performance is measured by national poll results, change in candidate viability, and length of candidacy. Campaign organization includes the amount of money the candidate's campaign spent on fundraising, size of the candidate's electoral constituency, and whether the candidate…
How Important Are Iowa and New Hampshire to Winning Post-Reform Presidential Nominations
While conventional wisdom holds that the first delegate selection events in Iowa and New Hampshire are important influences on the outcome of the presidential selection process, scholars increasingly question whether victories in these ‘bellwether’ contests are sufficient to propel darkhorse candidates to the nomination. This study utilizes four OLS regression models to predict nomination outcomes from 1980 to 1996 where the incumbent president d…
The Viability Primary
Public support before the primaries is the strongest predictor of presidential candidate attrition and of the aggregate primary vote. Yet little is known about the factors that drive candidate preferences before the primaries. This article examines pre-primary candidate support in national Gallup polls for open presidential nomination races from 1976 to 2004. The study finds that candidate background characteristics have marginal effects on mass …
Do Early Birds Get the Worm? Improving Timeliness of Presidential Nomination Forecasts
This research explores whether data on polling, campaign expenditures, and cash reserves of campaigns collected in the year prior to the presidential election can produce accurate predictions of party nominees. Findings suggest that efforts to forecast nominations may begin as early as the first quarter of the year before the election for Republicans, where the trade‐off between timeliness and accuracy is negligible. In Democratic races where a s…
Bumps in the Road to the White House
The 2000 Republican nomination battle illustrates the waning importance of campaign momentum to winning the presidential nomination and the increasing significance of early fundraising and organization. The reform movement of the 1970s established a new presidential nomination structure, which placed a premium on building momentum by winning early contests such as the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. However, so many recent front-runn…
Is the Exhibition Season Becoming more Important to Forecasting Presidential Nominations
How Important Are Iowa and New Hampshire to Winning Post-Reform Presidential Nominations
How Important Are Iowa and New Hampshire to Winning Post-Reform Presidential Nominations
While conventional wisdom holds that the first delegate selection events in Iowa and New Hampshire are important influences on the outcome of the presidential selection process, scholars increasingly question whether victories in these ‘bellwether’ contests are sufficient to propel darkhorse candidates to the nomination. This study utilizes four OLS regression models to predict nomination outcomes from 1980 to 1996 where the incumbent president d…
Is the Exhibition Season Becoming more Important to Forecasting Presidential Nominations
The Money Primary
Since 1980, the positive influence of candidate performance and campaign organization explains much of the variation in fundraising during the pre‐primary season. Candidate performance is measured by national poll results, change in candidate viability, and length of candidacy. Campaign organization includes the amount of money the candidate's campaign spent on fundraising, size of the candidate's electoral constituency, and whether the candidate…
Bumps in the Road to the White House
The 2000 Republican nomination battle illustrates the waning importance of campaign momentum to winning the presidential nomination and the increasing significance of early fundraising and organization. The reform movement of the 1970s established a new presidential nomination structure, which placed a premium on building momentum by winning early contests such as the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. However, so many recent front-runn…
The New Hampshire Effect in Presidential Nominations
The New Hampshire Effect in Presidential Nominations
In order to demonstrate challenges to conventional wisdom (Aldrich 1980a, b; Bartels 1985 1988; Orren and Polsby 1987), this article develops several forecasting models of the presidential primary vote to compare to a baseline model of the aggregate primary vote (APV) that uses pre-primary and New Hampshire primary data. The models indicate that candidates’ Gallup poll position and cash reserves are significant positive predictors of a candidates…
Do Early Birds Get the Worm? Improving Timeliness of Presidential Nomination Forecasts
This research explores whether data on polling, campaign expenditures, and cash reserves of campaigns collected in the year prior to the presidential election can produce accurate predictions of party nominees. Findings suggest that efforts to forecast nominations may begin as early as the first quarter of the year before the election for Republicans, where the trade‐off between timeliness and accuracy is negligible. In Democratic races where a s…
The Viability Primary
Public support before the primaries is the strongest predictor of presidential candidate attrition and of the aggregate primary vote. Yet little is known about the factors that drive candidate preferences before the primaries. This article examines pre-primary candidate support in national Gallup polls for open presidential nomination races from 1976 to 2004. The study finds that candidate background characteristics have marginal effects on mass …
Cases in Congressional Campaigns
1. Playing Defense in a Year of Change (Randall E. Adkins and David A. Dulio) 2. Sinking in The Perfect Storm: Knollenberg vs. Peters in Michigan's Ninth Congressional District (David A. Dulio and John S. Klemanski) 3. All Politics is Still Local: McConnell vs. Lunsford in Kentucky's Senate Race (Jasmine L. Farrier) 4. Running Scared from the Hill and at Home: Kirk vs. Seals in Illinois' Tenth Congressional District (Wayne P. Steger) 5. Defending…
Forecasting Presidential Nominations in 2016
A number of scholars successfully modeled and predicted presidential nomination outcomes from 1996–2008. However, dramatic changes occurred in subsequent years that would seem to make replicating these results challenging at best. Building on those earlier studies, we utilize a series of OLS models that included measures of preprimary resources and early campaign successes or failures to forecast that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump would win th…
Fundamentals Matter
Previous studies used pre-primary variables (e.g., endorsements, national polls, and fundraising) and momentum variables from the Iowa and New Hampshire contests to predict presidential nomination outcomes. Yet, races with no elite favorite and no clear frontrunner in polls, such as in the 2020 Democratic race, are more difficult to forecast. We replicate and extend two forecasting models from 1980 to 2016 used by Dowdle et al. (2016) to predict …
Forecasting the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination
Donald Trump’s bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is unique in that no former president since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 has sought the nomination of their political party, nor has a candidate sought the nomination while facing multiple criminal indictments. With data from previous nomination cycles, we use presidential nominations from 1980 to 2020 to create a forecast for the 2024 Republican primaries. The variables in the equa…
Political science (13 works) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (12 works) · Law (12 works) · Politics (12 works) · Presidential system (12 works) · Law (10 works) · Nomination (9 works) · Economics (7 works) · Public Administration (7 works) · Public Administration (5 works)