Charles M Bundrick
Biographic Data
| ID | 4123563 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Charles M Bundrick |
| GIVEN NAMES | Charles M |
| FAMILY NAME | Bundrick |
| SIGNATURE | BUNDRICK C M |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of West Florida |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 12 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 20 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 12 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1988 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2009 |
| H-INDEX | 2 |
Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election With the Fiscal Model
The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summer leading up to the election. This article is an assessment of the accuracy of their models. The presidential election forecast made with the Fiscal Model three months before Election Day put the incumbents' share of the two-party vote (VOTE2) at 48% (Cuzán and Bundrick 2008). As of the time of this writing, it appears the incumbent-par…
Predicting Presidential Elections with Equally Weighted Regressors in Fair's Equation and the Fiscal Model
Three-decade-old research suggests that although regression coefficients obtained with ordinary least squares (OLS) are optimal for fitting a model to a sample, unless the N over which the model was estimated is large, they are generally not very much superior and frequently inferior to equal weights or unit weights for making predictions in a validating sample. Yet, that research has yet to make an impact on presidential elections forecasting, w…
Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election
In 2004, for the first time the fiscal model was employed for the purpose of real-time, ex ante forecasting of a presidential election. The results were encouraging (Cuzán and Bundrick 2005). This year, however, the model encounters a set of challenging conditions, relevant only to it, never seen in the data before. In this paper, we briefly summarize the model, describe the problem, wrestle with ways to address it, and conclude with a forecast f…
Deconstructing the 2004 Presidential Election Forecasts
In this paper we compare the August 1st forecast of the 2004 presidential election generated with the fiscal model with those made with the seven models of what we call the “Campbell Collection,” after James E. Campbell, the editor or co-editor of several forecasting symposia that have appeared in the American Politics Quarterly (October, 1996) and in successive issues of PS: Political Science and Politics (October, 2004 and January, 2005). For r…
Fiscal Policy and Presidential Elections
This article updates, deepens, and extends previous articles published in this journal on the relation between fiscal policy and presidential elections. It presents evidence that is consistent with the view that voters reward fiscal frugality and punish fiscal expansion. The relationship is robust with respect to economic conditions, presidential incumbency, number of consecutive terms in the White House by presidents of the same party, and war. …
Presidential Popularity in Central America
Presidential Popularity in Central America
This article builds on our previous work, which showed that presiden tial popularity in Costa Rica is responsive to economic conditions. Here the analysis covers, in addition to Costa Rica, four sister republics which only recently have undergone democratization. We find that, as in the United States, presidential popularity in Central America rises and falls with the state of the economy Also as in the United States, presidential popularity in C…
Fiscal Policy and Presidential Elections, 1880-1992
Fiscal policy is both a contributor to and an effect of presidential electoral fortunes in the United States. An analysis of presidential election results between 1880 and 1992 shows that, except in periods of major war, an increase in the ratio of federal outlays to GNP has a negative effect on presidential reelection independent of inflation or growth rate. Yet even though faced with voters who punish expansion and reward cutbacks, presidents d…
Preferences for Religious or Nonreligious Counseling and Psychotherapy
Religious values in counseling and preferences for religious or secular counseling were investigated in two geographic areas. Over-all, 164 respondents distinguished religious from secular counseling and endorsed the importance of religious issues and the availability of counseling which can deal with religious issues. 51 preferred religious counseling. Small minorities expressed biases against religious or nonreligious counseling. Counseling pre…
The importance of physical scaling factors to benthic marine invertebrate recolonization of laboratory microcosms
Five laboratory studies of benthic macroinvertebrate recolonization were conducted for six‐week periods to evaluate the effects of physical scaling factors (i.e. microcosm size, seawater flow rates and sediment depth) on benthic community structure. Design variables included four open‐faced acrylic containers of size‐7, ‐12, ‐20 and ‐32 cm/side; seawater flow rate—approximately 0.7 or 1.6 liters/min; and sediment depth of 2.5 or 5.0 cm. Response …
Black and White Homeless Men
In this analysis of racial confounds in the study of homelessness and self-actualization, 100 black and 71 white homeless men from a mission and a street environment were compared to test the hypothesis that the prototypes of black and white homeless men are different. Discriminant analysis of items from the Short Index of Self-actualization of Jones and Crandall, willingness to use services, history of homelessness, and self-reported health rati…
Fiscal expansion and political instability in the Iberic-Latin region
Presidential Popularity in Central America
This article builds on our previous work, which showed that presiden tial popularity in Costa Rica is responsive to economic conditions. Here the analysis covers, in addition to Costa Rica, four sister republics which only recently have undergone democratization. We find that, as in the United States, presidential popularity in Central America rises and falls with the state of the economy Also as in the United States, presidential popularity in C…
Predicting Presidential Elections with Equally Weighted Regressors in Fair's Equation and the Fiscal Model
Three-decade-old research suggests that although regression coefficients obtained with ordinary least squares (OLS) are optimal for fitting a model to a sample, unless the N over which the model was estimated is large, they are generally not very much superior and frequently inferior to equal weights or unit weights for making predictions in a validating sample. Yet, that research has yet to make an impact on presidential elections forecasting, w…
Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election
In 2004, for the first time the fiscal model was employed for the purpose of real-time, ex ante forecasting of a presidential election. The results were encouraging (Cuzán and Bundrick 2005). This year, however, the model encounters a set of challenging conditions, relevant only to it, never seen in the data before. In this paper, we briefly summarize the model, describe the problem, wrestle with ways to address it, and conclude with a forecast f…
Fiscal Policy and Presidential Elections, 1880-1992
Fiscal policy is both a contributor to and an effect of presidential electoral fortunes in the United States. An analysis of presidential election results between 1880 and 1992 shows that, except in periods of major war, an increase in the ratio of federal outlays to GNP has a negative effect on presidential reelection independent of inflation or growth rate. Yet even though faced with voters who punish expansion and reward cutbacks, presidents d…
Fiscal Policy and Presidential Elections
This article updates, deepens, and extends previous articles published in this journal on the relation between fiscal policy and presidential elections. It presents evidence that is consistent with the view that voters reward fiscal frugality and punish fiscal expansion. The relationship is robust with respect to economic conditions, presidential incumbency, number of consecutive terms in the White House by presidents of the same party, and war. …
Fiscal expansion and political instability in the Iberic-Latin region
Fiscal expansion and political instability in the Iberic-Latin region
The importance of physical scaling factors to benthic marine invertebrate recolonization of laboratory microcosms
Five laboratory studies of benthic macroinvertebrate recolonization were conducted for six‐week periods to evaluate the effects of physical scaling factors (i.e. microcosm size, seawater flow rates and sediment depth) on benthic community structure. Design variables included four open‐faced acrylic containers of size‐7, ‐12, ‐20 and ‐32 cm/side; seawater flow rate—approximately 0.7 or 1.6 liters/min; and sediment depth of 2.5 or 5.0 cm. Response …
Black and White Homeless Men
In this analysis of racial confounds in the study of homelessness and self-actualization, 100 black and 71 white homeless men from a mission and a street environment were compared to test the hypothesis that the prototypes of black and white homeless men are different. Discriminant analysis of items from the Short Index of Self-actualization of Jones and Crandall, willingness to use services, history of homelessness, and self-reported health rati…
Preferences for Religious or Nonreligious Counseling and Psychotherapy
Religious values in counseling and preferences for religious or secular counseling were investigated in two geographic areas. Over-all, 164 respondents distinguished religious from secular counseling and endorsed the importance of religious issues and the availability of counseling which can deal with religious issues. 51 preferred religious counseling. Small minorities expressed biases against religious or nonreligious counseling. Counseling pre…
Fiscal Policy and Presidential Elections, 1880-1992
Fiscal policy is both a contributor to and an effect of presidential electoral fortunes in the United States. An analysis of presidential election results between 1880 and 1992 shows that, except in periods of major war, an increase in the ratio of federal outlays to GNP has a negative effect on presidential reelection independent of inflation or growth rate. Yet even though faced with voters who punish expansion and reward cutbacks, presidents d…
Presidential Popularity in Central America
Presidential Popularity in Central America
This article builds on our previous work, which showed that presiden tial popularity in Costa Rica is responsive to economic conditions. Here the analysis covers, in addition to Costa Rica, four sister republics which only recently have undergone democratization. We find that, as in the United States, presidential popularity in Central America rises and falls with the state of the economy Also as in the United States, presidential popularity in C…
Fiscal Policy and Presidential Elections
This article updates, deepens, and extends previous articles published in this journal on the relation between fiscal policy and presidential elections. It presents evidence that is consistent with the view that voters reward fiscal frugality and punish fiscal expansion. The relationship is robust with respect to economic conditions, presidential incumbency, number of consecutive terms in the White House by presidents of the same party, and war. …
Deconstructing the 2004 Presidential Election Forecasts
In this paper we compare the August 1st forecast of the 2004 presidential election generated with the fiscal model with those made with the seven models of what we call the “Campbell Collection,” after James E. Campbell, the editor or co-editor of several forecasting symposia that have appeared in the American Politics Quarterly (October, 1996) and in successive issues of PS: Political Science and Politics (October, 2004 and January, 2005). For r…
Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election
In 2004, for the first time the fiscal model was employed for the purpose of real-time, ex ante forecasting of a presidential election. The results were encouraging (Cuzán and Bundrick 2005). This year, however, the model encounters a set of challenging conditions, relevant only to it, never seen in the data before. In this paper, we briefly summarize the model, describe the problem, wrestle with ways to address it, and conclude with a forecast f…
Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election With the Fiscal Model
The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summer leading up to the election. This article is an assessment of the accuracy of their models. The presidential election forecast made with the Fiscal Model three months before Election Day put the incumbents' share of the two-party vote (VOTE2) at 48% (Cuzán and Bundrick 2008). As of the time of this writing, it appears the incumbent-par…
Predicting Presidential Elections with Equally Weighted Regressors in Fair's Equation and the Fiscal Model
Three-decade-old research suggests that although regression coefficients obtained with ordinary least squares (OLS) are optimal for fitting a model to a sample, unless the N over which the model was estimated is large, they are generally not very much superior and frequently inferior to equal weights or unit weights for making predictions in a validating sample. Yet, that research has yet to make an impact on presidential elections forecasting, w…
Political science (9 works) · Law (8 works) · Law (8 works) · Presidential system (8 works) · Economics (7 works) · Politics (7 works) · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy (6 works) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (5 works) · Political economy (4 works) · Presidential election (4 works)