Evan Braden Montgomery
Biographic Data
| ID | 4134639 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Evan Braden Montgomery |
| GIVEN NAMES | Evan Braden |
| FAMILY NAME | Montgomery |
| SIGNATURE | MONTGOMERY E B |
| AFFILIATIONS | Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, Washington, DC, USA |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 18 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 68 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 18 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2006 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 4 |
Friendly Proliferation and the Future of the Japan-US Alliance
The United States appears to be on the verge of a new grand strategy debate, one that could have profound implications for the spread of nuclear weapons and the sources of international conflict. W
When tanks tank and bombs bomb
Military innovation is prized by political leaders and military officers alike, but the demand for it can mask significant pitfalls any innovation process must navigate. This article explores failure through three lenses. Conceptually, failure is difficult to define but we navigate these challenges by identifying three modes of failure. Methodologically, we explain why adjudicating failure and success is so difficult. Theoretically, the article e…
Conquering Taiwan by Other Means
The Real Challenge of China’s Nuclear Modernization
Posturing for great power competition
The United States has adjusted its nuclear posture recently by adding nonstrategic weapons to its arsenal and raising the prospect of nuclear retaliation for nonnuclear attacks against command-and-control systems. Critics argue the former change is too dangerous due to the discrimination problem, while the latter change is too draconian due to the proportionality problem. I argue instead that new capabilities introduce a magazine depth problem, w…
Signals of strength
States often use demonstrations to improve perceptions of their military power. This topic has received limited attention in the literature, which typically assumes that states disguise or downplay their capabilities, advertise them only to enhance their prestige, or use demonstrations to communicate interests and resolve. Because military strength can be difficult to gauge, however, successful deterrence and assurance can require demonstrations …
Opportunistic Aggression in the Twenty-first Century
Policymakers should not fool themselves into thinking that there are easy, lowcost alternatives to keeping the threat of opportunistic aggression at bay
Primacy and Punishment
Perhaps the most significant foreign policy decision facing the United States is whether to retain its global security commitments or retrench from key regions. Although primacists are optimistic that the United States will remain ahead of its rivals, restrainers are more pessimistic about its prospects. I argue instead that this debate overlooks the importance of geopolitical orientation. Maritime powers such as the United States are frequently …
John M. Schuessler, Deceit on the road to war
In democratic nations characterized by regular elections, powerful legislatures, and a robust marketplace of ideas, leaders face a number of constraints on their ability to balance against external
In the Hegemon's shadow
"The relationship between established powers and emerging powers is one of the most important topics in world politics. Nevertheless, few studies have investigated how the leading state in the international system responds to rising powers in peripheral regions—actors that are not yet and might never become great powers but that are still increasing their strength, extending their influence, and trying to reorder their corner of the world. In the…
Rethinking Stability in South Asia
India and Pakistan are currently engaged in a competition for escalation dominance. While New Delhi is preparing for a limited conventional campaign against Pakistan, Islamabad is pursuing limited nuclear options to deter India. Together, these trends could increase the likelihood of nuclear conflict. India, for example, might conclude that it can launch an invasion without provoking a nuclear reprisal, while Pakistan might believe that it can em…
Contested Primacy in the Western Pacific
Despite their disagreements, proponents of deep engagement and offshore balancing share an optimistic but unrealistic assessment of U.S. military power. In particular, both sides in the debate over U.S. grand strategy underestimate the potential consequences of China's military modernization. China's antiaccess/area denial strategy and conventional precision-strike capabilities are already undermining the United States’ ability to prevent local c…
Counterfeit Diplomacy and Mobilization in Democracies
How do policymakers in democratic nations mobilize support for hard-line strategies? Existing answers to this question emphasize the exaggeration of external threats. Yet this overlooks an important dilemma: because democratic citizens expect their leaders to explore peaceful solutions or less aggressive alternatives when foreign dangers are ambiguous, the same conditions that make threat inflation necessary also make it difficult to employ succe…
Reconsidering a Naval Blockade of China
Sean Mirski's assessment of a naval blockade is an important contribution to the debate over how the United States should respond to China's growing military power. Nevertheless, it has three limitations. First, although distant and close-in blockades could be employed in tandem, analyzing them separately helps to explain when they might be used and how they could influence escalation. Second, while conventional countervalue and counterforce opti…
Competitive Strategies against Continental Powers
This article makes three arguments about the Sino-American competition, the Sino-Indian rivalry, and the US-India partnership. First, past maritime-continental rivalries suggest that China will pose a greater challenge to American interests as it confronts fewer threats on land, while the US may require continental allies to counter-balance China's rise. Second, whereas a Sino-Indian continental security dilemma could benefit the US by compelling…
Democratization, Instability, and War
In 2006 Israel resumed military operations in the Gaza Strip and conducted a war in Lebanon following attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah, respectively. Due to the elections that had recently taken place in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon, these events seem to support the argument that democratizing nations are particularly war-prone. Yet the dynamics this perspective identifies as dangerous were largely absent. To address this puzzle, this pa…
Uncertainty and Reassurance in International Politics
July 01 2007 Uncertainty and Reassurance in International Politics Shiping Tang, Shiping Tang Shiping Tang is Senior Fellow at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. He is completing a book on defensive realism, tentatively titled Defensive Realism: A Systematic Statement. He thanks Alan Collins, S.P. Harish, Andrew Kydd, Richard Ned Lebow, and Randall Schweller for their helpful comments on…
Breaking Out of the Security Dilemma
In the debate between offensive and defensive realism, a central issue is whether major powers can overcome the uncertainty that drives the security dilemma. Whereas offensive realists maintain that states cannot know others' motives and intentions, defensive realists argue that states can reveal their preferences by altering their military posture. Defensive realists have, how- ever, presented an incomplete account of the constraints and opportu…
Breaking Out of the Security Dilemma
In the debate between offensive and defensive realism, a central issue is whether major powers can overcome the uncertainty that drives the security dilemma. Whereas offensive realists maintain that states cannot know others' motives and intentions, defensive realists argue that states can reveal their preferences by altering their military posture. Defensive realists have, how- ever, presented an incomplete account of the constraints and opportu…
Contested Primacy in the Western Pacific
Despite their disagreements, proponents of deep engagement and offshore balancing share an optimistic but unrealistic assessment of U.S. military power. In particular, both sides in the debate over U.S. grand strategy underestimate the potential consequences of China's military modernization. China's antiaccess/area denial strategy and conventional precision-strike capabilities are already undermining the United States’ ability to prevent local c…
Rethinking Stability in South Asia
India and Pakistan are currently engaged in a competition for escalation dominance. While New Delhi is preparing for a limited conventional campaign against Pakistan, Islamabad is pursuing limited nuclear options to deter India. Together, these trends could increase the likelihood of nuclear conflict. India, for example, might conclude that it can launch an invasion without provoking a nuclear reprisal, while Pakistan might believe that it can em…
Reconsidering a Naval Blockade of China
Sean Mirski's assessment of a naval blockade is an important contribution to the debate over how the United States should respond to China's growing military power. Nevertheless, it has three limitations. First, although distant and close-in blockades could be employed in tandem, analyzing them separately helps to explain when they might be used and how they could influence escalation. Second, while conventional countervalue and counterforce opti…
The Real Challenge of China’s Nuclear Modernization
Signals of strength
States often use demonstrations to improve perceptions of their military power. This topic has received limited attention in the literature, which typically assumes that states disguise or downplay their capabilities, advertise them only to enhance their prestige, or use demonstrations to communicate interests and resolve. Because military strength can be difficult to gauge, however, successful deterrence and assurance can require demonstrations …
Democratization, Instability, and War
In 2006 Israel resumed military operations in the Gaza Strip and conducted a war in Lebanon following attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah, respectively. Due to the elections that had recently taken place in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon, these events seem to support the argument that democratizing nations are particularly war-prone. Yet the dynamics this perspective identifies as dangerous were largely absent. To address this puzzle, this pa…
Competitive Strategies against Continental Powers
This article makes three arguments about the Sino-American competition, the Sino-Indian rivalry, and the US-India partnership. First, past maritime-continental rivalries suggest that China will pose a greater challenge to American interests as it confronts fewer threats on land, while the US may require continental allies to counter-balance China's rise. Second, whereas a Sino-Indian continental security dilemma could benefit the US by compelling…
Opportunistic Aggression in the Twenty-first Century
Policymakers should not fool themselves into thinking that there are easy, lowcost alternatives to keeping the threat of opportunistic aggression at bay
Primacy and Punishment
Perhaps the most significant foreign policy decision facing the United States is whether to retain its global security commitments or retrench from key regions. Although primacists are optimistic that the United States will remain ahead of its rivals, restrainers are more pessimistic about its prospects. I argue instead that this debate overlooks the importance of geopolitical orientation. Maritime powers such as the United States are frequently …
Conquering Taiwan by Other Means
Posturing for great power competition
The United States has adjusted its nuclear posture recently by adding nonstrategic weapons to its arsenal and raising the prospect of nuclear retaliation for nonnuclear attacks against command-and-control systems. Critics argue the former change is too dangerous due to the discrimination problem, while the latter change is too draconian due to the proportionality problem. I argue instead that new capabilities introduce a magazine depth problem, w…
Counterfeit Diplomacy and Mobilization in Democracies
How do policymakers in democratic nations mobilize support for hard-line strategies? Existing answers to this question emphasize the exaggeration of external threats. Yet this overlooks an important dilemma: because democratic citizens expect their leaders to explore peaceful solutions or less aggressive alternatives when foreign dangers are ambiguous, the same conditions that make threat inflation necessary also make it difficult to employ succe…
Breaking Out of the Security Dilemma
In the debate between offensive and defensive realism, a central issue is whether major powers can overcome the uncertainty that drives the security dilemma. Whereas offensive realists maintain that states cannot know others' motives and intentions, defensive realists argue that states can reveal their preferences by altering their military posture. Defensive realists have, how- ever, presented an incomplete account of the constraints and opportu…
Uncertainty and Reassurance in International Politics
July 01 2007 Uncertainty and Reassurance in International Politics Shiping Tang, Shiping Tang Shiping Tang is Senior Fellow at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. He is completing a book on defensive realism, tentatively titled Defensive Realism: A Systematic Statement. He thanks Alan Collins, S.P. Harish, Andrew Kydd, Richard Ned Lebow, and Randall Schweller for their helpful comments on…
Democratization, Instability, and War
In 2006 Israel resumed military operations in the Gaza Strip and conducted a war in Lebanon following attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah, respectively. Due to the elections that had recently taken place in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon, these events seem to support the argument that democratizing nations are particularly war-prone. Yet the dynamics this perspective identifies as dangerous were largely absent. To address this puzzle, this pa…
Counterfeit Diplomacy and Mobilization in Democracies
How do policymakers in democratic nations mobilize support for hard-line strategies? Existing answers to this question emphasize the exaggeration of external threats. Yet this overlooks an important dilemma: because democratic citizens expect their leaders to explore peaceful solutions or less aggressive alternatives when foreign dangers are ambiguous, the same conditions that make threat inflation necessary also make it difficult to employ succe…
Reconsidering a Naval Blockade of China
Sean Mirski's assessment of a naval blockade is an important contribution to the debate over how the United States should respond to China's growing military power. Nevertheless, it has three limitations. First, although distant and close-in blockades could be employed in tandem, analyzing them separately helps to explain when they might be used and how they could influence escalation. Second, while conventional countervalue and counterforce opti…
Competitive Strategies against Continental Powers
This article makes three arguments about the Sino-American competition, the Sino-Indian rivalry, and the US-India partnership. First, past maritime-continental rivalries suggest that China will pose a greater challenge to American interests as it confronts fewer threats on land, while the US may require continental allies to counter-balance China's rise. Second, whereas a Sino-Indian continental security dilemma could benefit the US by compelling…
Contested Primacy in the Western Pacific
Despite their disagreements, proponents of deep engagement and offshore balancing share an optimistic but unrealistic assessment of U.S. military power. In particular, both sides in the debate over U.S. grand strategy underestimate the potential consequences of China's military modernization. China's antiaccess/area denial strategy and conventional precision-strike capabilities are already undermining the United States’ ability to prevent local c…
Rethinking Stability in South Asia
India and Pakistan are currently engaged in a competition for escalation dominance. While New Delhi is preparing for a limited conventional campaign against Pakistan, Islamabad is pursuing limited nuclear options to deter India. Together, these trends could increase the likelihood of nuclear conflict. India, for example, might conclude that it can launch an invasion without provoking a nuclear reprisal, while Pakistan might believe that it can em…
In the Hegemon's shadow
"The relationship between established powers and emerging powers is one of the most important topics in world politics. Nevertheless, few studies have investigated how the leading state in the international system responds to rising powers in peripheral regions—actors that are not yet and might never become great powers but that are still increasing their strength, extending their influence, and trying to reorder their corner of the world. In the…
John M. Schuessler, Deceit on the road to war
In democratic nations characterized by regular elections, powerful legislatures, and a robust marketplace of ideas, leaders face a number of constraints on their ability to balance against external
Signals of strength
States often use demonstrations to improve perceptions of their military power. This topic has received limited attention in the literature, which typically assumes that states disguise or downplay their capabilities, advertise them only to enhance their prestige, or use demonstrations to communicate interests and resolve. Because military strength can be difficult to gauge, however, successful deterrence and assurance can require demonstrations …
Opportunistic Aggression in the Twenty-first Century
Policymakers should not fool themselves into thinking that there are easy, lowcost alternatives to keeping the threat of opportunistic aggression at bay
Primacy and Punishment
Perhaps the most significant foreign policy decision facing the United States is whether to retain its global security commitments or retrench from key regions. Although primacists are optimistic that the United States will remain ahead of its rivals, restrainers are more pessimistic about its prospects. I argue instead that this debate overlooks the importance of geopolitical orientation. Maritime powers such as the United States are frequently …
The Real Challenge of China’s Nuclear Modernization
Posturing for great power competition
The United States has adjusted its nuclear posture recently by adding nonstrategic weapons to its arsenal and raising the prospect of nuclear retaliation for nonnuclear attacks against command-and-control systems. Critics argue the former change is too dangerous due to the discrimination problem, while the latter change is too draconian due to the proportionality problem. I argue instead that new capabilities introduce a magazine depth problem, w…
Conquering Taiwan by Other Means
Friendly Proliferation and the Future of the Japan-US Alliance
The United States appears to be on the verge of a new grand strategy debate, one that could have profound implications for the spread of nuclear weapons and the sources of international conflict. W
When tanks tank and bombs bomb
Military innovation is prized by political leaders and military officers alike, but the demand for it can mask significant pitfalls any innovation process must navigate. This article explores failure through three lenses. Conceptually, failure is difficult to define but we navigate these challenges by identifying three modes of failure. Methodologically, we explain why adjudicating failure and success is so difficult. Theoretically, the article e…
Political science (15 works) · Law (13 works) · International Relations and Foreign Policy (12 works) · Law (11 works) · Political economy (10 works) · Economics (8 works) · Politics (7 works) · Sociology (7 works) · Development economics (6 works) · China (5 works)