Asfandyar Mir
Biographic Data
| ID | 4134780 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Asfandyar Mir |
| GIVEN NAMES | Asfandyar |
| FAMILY NAME | Mir |
| SIGNATURE | MIR A |
| AFFILIATIONS | United States Institute of Peace |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-4277-7884 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 6 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 43 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 6 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2018 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2024 |
| H-INDEX | 3 |
Nationalism, Status, and Conspiracy Theories
Does nationalism increase beliefs in conspiracy theories that frame minorities as subversives? From China to Russia to India, analysts and public commentators increasingly assume that nationalism fuels belief in false or unverified information. Yet existing scholarly work has neither theoretically nor empirically examined this link. Using a survey experiment conducted among 2,373 individuals and 6 focus groups with 6–8 participants each, for a to…
Political Coalitions and Social Media
Social media is frequently an arena of intense competition among major political actors across the world. We argue that a fruitful way of understanding this competition is as coalitions among key actors and their networks of followers. These coalitions can both advance a shared political message and target mutual rivals. Importantly, coalitions can be tacit or explicit, and they do not necessarily depend on direct state manipulation or repression…
Assessing al-Qaeda
Twenty years after the 9/11 attacks, the current status and future of al-Qaeda is a central policy question, especially as the U.S. government looks to pivot away from counterterrorism toward managing great power competition. This article presents a debate on this issue between Daniel Byman and Asfandyar Mir. Mir argues that al-Qaeda remains a significant threat, committed to fighting the United States despite pressures to alter direction. The co…
Drones, Surveillance, and Violence
We investigate the impact of the US drone program in Pakistan on insurgent violence. Using details about US-Pakistan counterterrorism cooperation and geocoded violence data, we show that the program was associated with monthly reductions of around nine to thirteen insurgent attacks and fifty-one to eighty-six casualties in the area affected by the program. This change was sizable, as in the year before the program, the affected area experienced a…
What Explains Counterterrorism Effectiveness? Evidence from the U.S. Drone War in Pakistan
For years, the U.S. government has been waging counterterrorism campaigns against al-Qaida and other armed groups in safe havens and weak states. What explains the effectiveness of such campaigns? The variation in effectiveness may result from differences in select tactical, organizational, and technological capabilities of the counterterrorism state and its local partner, captured by the concept of the Legibility and Speed-of-Exploitation System…
Politics and Threat Perception
Analysts and policymakers agree that the Pakistani military has engaged in selective repression of and collusion with armed groups. Yet beyond this general observation, fine-grained theory and evidence do not exist to systematically explain patterns of military strategy across groups and over time. This paper provides a theoretical framework for explaining regime perceptions of armed groups and the strategies state security managers pursue toward…
What Explains Counterterrorism Effectiveness? Evidence from the U.S. Drone War in Pakistan
For years, the U.S. government has been waging counterterrorism campaigns against al-Qaida and other armed groups in safe havens and weak states. What explains the effectiveness of such campaigns? The variation in effectiveness may result from differences in select tactical, organizational, and technological capabilities of the counterterrorism state and its local partner, captured by the concept of the Legibility and Speed-of-Exploitation System…
Drones, Surveillance, and Violence
We investigate the impact of the US drone program in Pakistan on insurgent violence. Using details about US-Pakistan counterterrorism cooperation and geocoded violence data, we show that the program was associated with monthly reductions of around nine to thirteen insurgent attacks and fifty-one to eighty-six casualties in the area affected by the program. This change was sizable, as in the year before the program, the affected area experienced a…
Politics and Threat Perception
Analysts and policymakers agree that the Pakistani military has engaged in selective repression of and collusion with armed groups. Yet beyond this general observation, fine-grained theory and evidence do not exist to systematically explain patterns of military strategy across groups and over time. This paper provides a theoretical framework for explaining regime perceptions of armed groups and the strategies state security managers pursue toward…
Political Coalitions and Social Media
Social media is frequently an arena of intense competition among major political actors across the world. We argue that a fruitful way of understanding this competition is as coalitions among key actors and their networks of followers. These coalitions can both advance a shared political message and target mutual rivals. Importantly, coalitions can be tacit or explicit, and they do not necessarily depend on direct state manipulation or repression…
Nationalism, Status, and Conspiracy Theories
Does nationalism increase beliefs in conspiracy theories that frame minorities as subversives? From China to Russia to India, analysts and public commentators increasingly assume that nationalism fuels belief in false or unverified information. Yet existing scholarly work has neither theoretically nor empirically examined this link. Using a survey experiment conducted among 2,373 individuals and 6 focus groups with 6–8 participants each, for a to…
Assessing al-Qaeda
Twenty years after the 9/11 attacks, the current status and future of al-Qaeda is a central policy question, especially as the U.S. government looks to pivot away from counterterrorism toward managing great power competition. This article presents a debate on this issue between Daniel Byman and Asfandyar Mir. Mir argues that al-Qaeda remains a significant threat, committed to fighting the United States despite pressures to alter direction. The co…
What Explains Counterterrorism Effectiveness? Evidence from the U.S. Drone War in Pakistan
For years, the U.S. government has been waging counterterrorism campaigns against al-Qaida and other armed groups in safe havens and weak states. What explains the effectiveness of such campaigns? The variation in effectiveness may result from differences in select tactical, organizational, and technological capabilities of the counterterrorism state and its local partner, captured by the concept of the Legibility and Speed-of-Exploitation System…
Politics and Threat Perception
Analysts and policymakers agree that the Pakistani military has engaged in selective repression of and collusion with armed groups. Yet beyond this general observation, fine-grained theory and evidence do not exist to systematically explain patterns of military strategy across groups and over time. This paper provides a theoretical framework for explaining regime perceptions of armed groups and the strategies state security managers pursue toward…
Drones, Surveillance, and Violence
We investigate the impact of the US drone program in Pakistan on insurgent violence. Using details about US-Pakistan counterterrorism cooperation and geocoded violence data, we show that the program was associated with monthly reductions of around nine to thirteen insurgent attacks and fifty-one to eighty-six casualties in the area affected by the program. This change was sizable, as in the year before the program, the affected area experienced a…
Assessing al-Qaeda
Twenty years after the 9/11 attacks, the current status and future of al-Qaeda is a central policy question, especially as the U.S. government looks to pivot away from counterterrorism toward managing great power competition. This article presents a debate on this issue between Daniel Byman and Asfandyar Mir. Mir argues that al-Qaeda remains a significant threat, committed to fighting the United States despite pressures to alter direction. The co…
Political Coalitions and Social Media
Social media is frequently an arena of intense competition among major political actors across the world. We argue that a fruitful way of understanding this competition is as coalitions among key actors and their networks of followers. These coalitions can both advance a shared political message and target mutual rivals. Importantly, coalitions can be tacit or explicit, and they do not necessarily depend on direct state manipulation or repression…
Nationalism, Status, and Conspiracy Theories
Does nationalism increase beliefs in conspiracy theories that frame minorities as subversives? From China to Russia to India, analysts and public commentators increasingly assume that nationalism fuels belief in false or unverified information. Yet existing scholarly work has neither theoretically nor empirically examined this link. Using a survey experiment conducted among 2,373 individuals and 6 focus groups with 6–8 participants each, for a to…
Political science (6 works) · Computer Science (4 works) · Economics (4 works) · Law (4 works) · Politics (4 works) · Criminology (3 works) · Law (3 works) · Political Conflict and Governance (3 works) · Political economy (3 works) · Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East (3 works)