Ivan A Safranchuk
Biographic Data
| ID | 4143871 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Ivan A Safranchuk |
| GIVEN NAMES | Ivan A |
| FAMILY NAME | Safranchuk |
| SIGNATURE | SAFRANCHUK I A |
| AFFILIATIONS | Moscow State Institute of International Relations |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-2214-6628 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 27 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 38 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 27 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2018 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 3 |
What to do (and not do) with foreign interventions data: Methodological challenges and solutions
The determinants of foreign interventions, be they military interventions or other forms of foreign involvement, are important for modern international relations and conflict studies. Nevertheless, major methodological problems with the analysis are often overlooked. This paper proposes modeling interventions as a two-stage decision-making process. The first stage determines whether a specific target state is intervenable from the perspective of …
Will It Get Worse? Expert Perception of Global Transformation
Despite some idealistic views, the emergence of the multipolar world order is being accompanied by increased tensions and conflict. Current global changes are seen as similar in intensity to those which accompanied the First World War. However, there is no clear path for states seeking higher international status to exploit this historic momentum. Increased revisionism is perceived as associated with a higher risk of losing international status. …
The World Majority: Growing Significance but Inadequate Agency
The World Majority is better viewed as part of the international environment rather than a fully- fledged agent. The Majority can form and express opinions on others’ actions, with consequences in the international information environment, and it can collectively reject overly assertive actions, but it does not actually support the actions of anyone
China's Policy in the Black Sea Region: Between Global and Regional Interests
The article focuses on China’s policy in the Black Sea region. In particular, it shows how it is implemented under the influence of factors reorganizing the global system of international relations, as well as regional interests associated with the promotion of, first of all, the economic positions of the PRC. It is also important that the formation of Beijing’s Black Sea policy is influenced by interaction with Russia, which is a key player in t…
Legitimization of armed intervention through Western media narratives: 2000-2022, The period of instrumentalization of the Responsibility to Protect Concept
The article studies the evolution of the narrative of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P, Responsibility to Protect, RP) concept through the prism of armed intervention cases. This paper is a logical continuation of the article “Legitimizing armed intervention by means of Western media narratives: dominant narratives during the emergence of the Responsibility to Protect concept, 1990s”. The first article outlined the theoretical component and the…
Dominant narratives in Western media during the 1990s formation of the Responsibility to Protect
The article examines the influence of narratives of armed intervention produced by international civil society on the formation of the concept of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P). The article tests the hypothesis that the narratives of the most popular Western media in the 1990s were reflected in the later adopted concept of the R2P. The time span of the analyzed interventions covers the period of the R2P norm formation - the 1990s. The paper …
The Intervention That Originated the Post-Cold War Order
The article retraces how the Soviet Union and the United States tried to establish a partnership in the wake of Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait. The international community strongly condemned the invasion, and the two superpowers chose to cooperate in finding a solution to the crisis. The Soviet leadership was persistent in searching for a peaceful settlement. But the Bush administration, seeking to lay the grounds for U.S. dominance in a “new wor…
The United States’ Intervention in Afghanistan: The Dysfunction of a Centralized Authority in a Diverse Nation
This article reviews the US-led nation-building strategy effort in Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. The history of the nation-building efforts is retraced from the creation of the Republic to its ultimate collapse. The central argument of the paper stresses the dysfunctionality of the centralization approach adopted by several successive administrations in Kabul with the backing of the United States. The inquiry reveals the problems of implementa…
Africa and the Ukraine Crisis: Exploring Attitudes
The authors present a coordinate system to map the international reaction to the Ukraine crisis, with special attention to African states. Methods of cluster, correlation, and regression analyses are used to obtain an overall picture of the international reaction to the crisis over time and highlight factors that can influence the positions of states. The positions of African states cannot be easily explained by material factors but are rather th…
International Hierarchy and Functional Differentiation of States: Results of an Expert Survey
This article investigates the existing international hierarchy employing expert survey as its primary method. 'Authority hierarchy' and 'power status hierarchy,' the two existing research traditions of hierarchy studies, are briefly introduced. We demonstrate a gap between basic research on power status, emphasizing its social nature, and applied case studies, primarily relying on purely material indicators of a country's capabilities, such as th…
A Reverse Cuban Missile Crisis: Fading Red Lines
This article conceptualizes the current crises around Ukraine and Taiwan as "a reverse Cuban missile crisis." The Cuban missile crisis was a turning point in the history of the Cold War. The two superpowers found themselves at the brink of mutual annihilation and turned to negotiations to prevent it. Today the transformation of the world order and escalation of the great power competition can culminate in a new crisis like the Cuban one, and with…
Empathy Is the Best Strategy for Diplomacy
The Dilemma of Middlepowermanship in Central Asia: Prospects for Hegemony
This article examines the shift in the balance of power in Central Asia in the context of the United States' declining global hegemonic power. The authors analyze the hegemonic struggle between China, Russia, and the U.S. in Central Asia and its influence on the middle power formation in this region. The authors argue that although Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have high economic potentials, by certain criteria they have not achieved the status of mi…
State Differentiation by Climate Ambition: Implications for World Politics
Climate politics forms a subsystem of world politics. In this subsystem, states are differentiated by their ambitions to decarbonize their economies. These ambitions proceed from national policies and the nationally determined contributions (NDC) submitted by states in accordance with the Paris Agreement. Based on states’ climate ambitions, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) produce multiple reports ranking states and evaluating their contribu…
The Role of non-Western Countries in the Construction of Russian Great Powerness: The Cases of Turkey and Israel
This article contributes to the study of Russian great powerness, focusing on the potential of the Russian-Turkish and Russian-Israeli relations to influence the construction of Russias great power status in a multipolar world. Based upon Russian and English literature dedicated to the study of great power concept and Russian great powerness, authors adopt analytic eclecticism for the theoretical framework of the study. In this regard, for a comp…
The Taliban Enigma and the Polycentric World
Despite the general view on the Taliban 1 as a proxy actor, it has become capable of pursuing independent domestic and foreign policies. Two basic options for the Taliban's role in regional affairs are possible in the future. Under the Taliban's rule Afghanistan may become either a scene of rivalry between great and regional powers, or a neutral zone with a revived buffer function it performed long before the 1970s. The Taliban's independent poli…
Between Russia and China: Central Asia in Greater Eurasia
Central Asian states are usually considered as passive elements rather than active agents of integration in Greater Eurasia. This article considers the role of these states as active agents shaping integration processes according to their own interests and perspectives. All Central Asian states conduct so-called “multivector” foreign policies balancing relations with the key great powers (Russia, China, and “collective West”) as well as with Midd…
Russia, China, and the concept of Indo-Pacific
The newly minted concept of the “Indo-Pacific Region” (IPR) is generally seen as a response by the United States and its allies to China’s growing influence in strategically important areas of the Pacific and Indian oceans. However, the view of IPR as a single (U.S.-led) anti-Beijing front is simplistic and misleading, obscuring a variety of approaches by the region’s states. New Delhi has a strong tradition of non-alignment, whereas Tokyo is mor…
Hegemony and World Order: An overview of the concept “Hegemony as Complexity
This article reviews the key topics and debates in Hegemony and World Order: Reimagining Power in Global Politics(Routledge, 2020), edited by P. Dutkiewicz, T. Casier, J. A. Scholte. The volume covers several issues related to hegemony in contemporary politics from neo-liberal, realist, constructivist, neo-Gramscian, world-systems and postcolonial theoretical perspectives. The concept of “complex hegemony,” briefly evaluated in this review, and t…
Patriotic Interpretation in the Retrospective Assessment of the War in Afghanistan
This article refers to memoirs of high-ranking participants and witnesses of the war in Afghanistan (1979–1989) published in the 1990s: it singles out two departmental interpretations of the war by military and intelligence veterans and examines their influence on the study of the history of the war. The article takes an unprecedented look at important transformation in interpretations at the turn of the century. The authors provide a holistic pi…
Russia’s policy in the “frozen conflicts” of the post-Soviet space: From ethno-politics to geopolitics
The article analyzes the evolution of Russia’s policy in secessionist conflicts in the post-Soviet space in 1991–2018. The authors differentiate the patterns of Russian policy between the “first” and “second” generation of frozen conflicts. The “first generation” includes four conflicts of an ethno-linguistic nature that arose out of the collapse of the USSR in the early 1990s (Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Pridnestrov’e and Karabakh). Most commentato…
M – Messianism
Hardly anyone will disagree that Russia has never been an exclusively pragmatic power, driven only by practical interests.The feeling of a certain mission and a lofty goal has always been Russia's inherent quality.But historically and in the strict sense of the word the Russian state is not messianic.It has not formulated anything that might look like a political doctrine of divine predestination, which would excuse expansionism with God's provid…
China–India relations in Eurasia: Historical legacy and the changing global context
The relationship between the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of India has traditionally been seen in terms of the interaction of two different trends—cooperation and competition. At the same time, the positive or negative dynamics of China–Indian contacts have mostly been shaped by the extent to which the political leadership of China and India have been prepared at various times to be guided by pragmatic interests and the desire to o…
Afghanistan’s Political Future and Its Role in Eurasian Cooperation
While it is widely admitted that Afghanistan can contribute to connectivity in Eurasia, one may not also deny that Afghanistan’s regional role is dependent on regional conditions. This article takes Afghanistan’s security and geostrategic trends in Eurasia as the two major variables, defining conditions for Afghanistan’s regional role. They are reviewed and then synthesised as dependent and independent variables to form taxonomy of possible regio…
European Union in Central Asia: The Limits of Normative Power(Review of O.A. Spaiser’s Monograph “The European Union’sInfluence in Central Asia. Geopolitical Challenges and Responses”)
The review is focused on critical analysis of the monograph written by the French researcher O. A. Spaiser whose study wasfocused on EU policy in Central Asia. The reviewers pay attention to methodology which is used by the author with the purpose to analyze EU capabilities that are necessary to influence so distant region. At the heart of her work is the methodology of post-structuralism and post-modernism. This uncommon scientific approach help…
Between Russia and China: Central Asia in Greater Eurasia
Central Asian states are usually considered as passive elements rather than active agents of integration in Greater Eurasia. This article considers the role of these states as active agents shaping integration processes according to their own interests and perspectives. All Central Asian states conduct so-called “multivector” foreign policies balancing relations with the key great powers (Russia, China, and “collective West”) as well as with Midd…
Russia, China, and the concept of Indo-Pacific
The newly minted concept of the “Indo-Pacific Region” (IPR) is generally seen as a response by the United States and its allies to China’s growing influence in strategically important areas of the Pacific and Indian oceans. However, the view of IPR as a single (U.S.-led) anti-Beijing front is simplistic and misleading, obscuring a variety of approaches by the region’s states. New Delhi has a strong tradition of non-alignment, whereas Tokyo is mor…
Hegemony and World Order: An overview of the concept “Hegemony as Complexity
This article reviews the key topics and debates in Hegemony and World Order: Reimagining Power in Global Politics(Routledge, 2020), edited by P. Dutkiewicz, T. Casier, J. A. Scholte. The volume covers several issues related to hegemony in contemporary politics from neo-liberal, realist, constructivist, neo-Gramscian, world-systems and postcolonial theoretical perspectives. The concept of “complex hegemony,” briefly evaluated in this review, and t…
Russia’s policy in the “frozen conflicts” of the post-Soviet space: From ethno-politics to geopolitics
The article analyzes the evolution of Russia’s policy in secessionist conflicts in the post-Soviet space in 1991–2018. The authors differentiate the patterns of Russian policy between the “first” and “second” generation of frozen conflicts. The “first generation” includes four conflicts of an ethno-linguistic nature that arose out of the collapse of the USSR in the early 1990s (Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Pridnestrov’e and Karabakh). Most commentato…
Dominant narratives in Western media during the 1990s formation of the Responsibility to Protect
The article examines the influence of narratives of armed intervention produced by international civil society on the formation of the concept of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P). The article tests the hypothesis that the narratives of the most popular Western media in the 1990s were reflected in the later adopted concept of the R2P. The time span of the analyzed interventions covers the period of the R2P norm formation - the 1990s. The paper …
Africa and the Ukraine Crisis: Exploring Attitudes
The authors present a coordinate system to map the international reaction to the Ukraine crisis, with special attention to African states. Methods of cluster, correlation, and regression analyses are used to obtain an overall picture of the international reaction to the crisis over time and highlight factors that can influence the positions of states. The positions of African states cannot be easily explained by material factors but are rather th…
A Reverse Cuban Missile Crisis: Fading Red Lines
This article conceptualizes the current crises around Ukraine and Taiwan as "a reverse Cuban missile crisis." The Cuban missile crisis was a turning point in the history of the Cold War. The two superpowers found themselves at the brink of mutual annihilation and turned to negotiations to prevent it. Today the transformation of the world order and escalation of the great power competition can culminate in a new crisis like the Cuban one, and with…
Empathy Is the Best Strategy for Diplomacy
The Dilemma of Middlepowermanship in Central Asia: Prospects for Hegemony
This article examines the shift in the balance of power in Central Asia in the context of the United States' declining global hegemonic power. The authors analyze the hegemonic struggle between China, Russia, and the U.S. in Central Asia and its influence on the middle power formation in this region. The authors argue that although Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have high economic potentials, by certain criteria they have not achieved the status of mi…
State Differentiation by Climate Ambition: Implications for World Politics
Climate politics forms a subsystem of world politics. In this subsystem, states are differentiated by their ambitions to decarbonize their economies. These ambitions proceed from national policies and the nationally determined contributions (NDC) submitted by states in accordance with the Paris Agreement. Based on states’ climate ambitions, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) produce multiple reports ranking states and evaluating their contribu…
Afghanistan’s Political Future and Its Role in Eurasian Cooperation
While it is widely admitted that Afghanistan can contribute to connectivity in Eurasia, one may not also deny that Afghanistan’s regional role is dependent on regional conditions. This article takes Afghanistan’s security and geostrategic trends in Eurasia as the two major variables, defining conditions for Afghanistan’s regional role. They are reviewed and then synthesised as dependent and independent variables to form taxonomy of possible regio…
Traveling in Different Boats
European Union in Central Asia: The Limits of Normative Power(Review of O.A. Spaiser’s Monograph “The European Union’sInfluence in Central Asia. Geopolitical Challenges and Responses”)
The review is focused on critical analysis of the monograph written by the French researcher O. A. Spaiser whose study wasfocused on EU policy in Central Asia. The reviewers pay attention to methodology which is used by the author with the purpose to analyze EU capabilities that are necessary to influence so distant region. At the heart of her work is the methodology of post-structuralism and post-modernism. This uncommon scientific approach help…
Russian-U.S. Relations: Torn between the Practical and Ideational Agendas
Russia in Global Affairs offers an international platform for publication in English and Russian of the results of individual and collective research in political science and materials discussing social, historical, economic, cultural and military issues related to international relations
Traveling in Different Boats
Afghanistan’s Political Future and Its Role in Eurasian Cooperation
While it is widely admitted that Afghanistan can contribute to connectivity in Eurasia, one may not also deny that Afghanistan’s regional role is dependent on regional conditions. This article takes Afghanistan’s security and geostrategic trends in Eurasia as the two major variables, defining conditions for Afghanistan’s regional role. They are reviewed and then synthesised as dependent and independent variables to form taxonomy of possible regio…
Patriotic Interpretation in the Retrospective Assessment of the War in Afghanistan
This article refers to memoirs of high-ranking participants and witnesses of the war in Afghanistan (1979–1989) published in the 1990s: it singles out two departmental interpretations of the war by military and intelligence veterans and examines their influence on the study of the history of the war. The article takes an unprecedented look at important transformation in interpretations at the turn of the century. The authors provide a holistic pi…
Russia’s policy in the “frozen conflicts” of the post-Soviet space: From ethno-politics to geopolitics
The article analyzes the evolution of Russia’s policy in secessionist conflicts in the post-Soviet space in 1991–2018. The authors differentiate the patterns of Russian policy between the “first” and “second” generation of frozen conflicts. The “first generation” includes four conflicts of an ethno-linguistic nature that arose out of the collapse of the USSR in the early 1990s (Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Pridnestrov’e and Karabakh). Most commentato…
M – Messianism
Hardly anyone will disagree that Russia has never been an exclusively pragmatic power, driven only by practical interests.The feeling of a certain mission and a lofty goal has always been Russia's inherent quality.But historically and in the strict sense of the word the Russian state is not messianic.It has not formulated anything that might look like a political doctrine of divine predestination, which would excuse expansionism with God's provid…
China–India relations in Eurasia: Historical legacy and the changing global context
The relationship between the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of India has traditionally been seen in terms of the interaction of two different trends—cooperation and competition. At the same time, the positive or negative dynamics of China–Indian contacts have mostly been shaped by the extent to which the political leadership of China and India have been prepared at various times to be guided by pragmatic interests and the desire to o…
The Role of non-Western Countries in the Construction of Russian Great Powerness: The Cases of Turkey and Israel
This article contributes to the study of Russian great powerness, focusing on the potential of the Russian-Turkish and Russian-Israeli relations to influence the construction of Russias great power status in a multipolar world. Based upon Russian and English literature dedicated to the study of great power concept and Russian great powerness, authors adopt analytic eclecticism for the theoretical framework of the study. In this regard, for a comp…
The Taliban Enigma and the Polycentric World
Despite the general view on the Taliban 1 as a proxy actor, it has become capable of pursuing independent domestic and foreign policies. Two basic options for the Taliban's role in regional affairs are possible in the future. Under the Taliban's rule Afghanistan may become either a scene of rivalry between great and regional powers, or a neutral zone with a revived buffer function it performed long before the 1970s. The Taliban's independent poli…
Between Russia and China: Central Asia in Greater Eurasia
Central Asian states are usually considered as passive elements rather than active agents of integration in Greater Eurasia. This article considers the role of these states as active agents shaping integration processes according to their own interests and perspectives. All Central Asian states conduct so-called “multivector” foreign policies balancing relations with the key great powers (Russia, China, and “collective West”) as well as with Midd…
Russia, China, and the concept of Indo-Pacific
The newly minted concept of the “Indo-Pacific Region” (IPR) is generally seen as a response by the United States and its allies to China’s growing influence in strategically important areas of the Pacific and Indian oceans. However, the view of IPR as a single (U.S.-led) anti-Beijing front is simplistic and misleading, obscuring a variety of approaches by the region’s states. New Delhi has a strong tradition of non-alignment, whereas Tokyo is mor…
Hegemony and World Order: An overview of the concept “Hegemony as Complexity
This article reviews the key topics and debates in Hegemony and World Order: Reimagining Power in Global Politics(Routledge, 2020), edited by P. Dutkiewicz, T. Casier, J. A. Scholte. The volume covers several issues related to hegemony in contemporary politics from neo-liberal, realist, constructivist, neo-Gramscian, world-systems and postcolonial theoretical perspectives. The concept of “complex hegemony,” briefly evaluated in this review, and t…
International Hierarchy and Functional Differentiation of States: Results of an Expert Survey
This article investigates the existing international hierarchy employing expert survey as its primary method. 'Authority hierarchy' and 'power status hierarchy,' the two existing research traditions of hierarchy studies, are briefly introduced. We demonstrate a gap between basic research on power status, emphasizing its social nature, and applied case studies, primarily relying on purely material indicators of a country's capabilities, such as th…
A Reverse Cuban Missile Crisis: Fading Red Lines
This article conceptualizes the current crises around Ukraine and Taiwan as "a reverse Cuban missile crisis." The Cuban missile crisis was a turning point in the history of the Cold War. The two superpowers found themselves at the brink of mutual annihilation and turned to negotiations to prevent it. Today the transformation of the world order and escalation of the great power competition can culminate in a new crisis like the Cuban one, and with…
Empathy Is the Best Strategy for Diplomacy
The Dilemma of Middlepowermanship in Central Asia: Prospects for Hegemony
This article examines the shift in the balance of power in Central Asia in the context of the United States' declining global hegemonic power. The authors analyze the hegemonic struggle between China, Russia, and the U.S. in Central Asia and its influence on the middle power formation in this region. The authors argue that although Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have high economic potentials, by certain criteria they have not achieved the status of mi…
State Differentiation by Climate Ambition: Implications for World Politics
Climate politics forms a subsystem of world politics. In this subsystem, states are differentiated by their ambitions to decarbonize their economies. These ambitions proceed from national policies and the nationally determined contributions (NDC) submitted by states in accordance with the Paris Agreement. Based on states’ climate ambitions, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) produce multiple reports ranking states and evaluating their contribu…
Africa and the Ukraine Crisis: Exploring Attitudes
The authors present a coordinate system to map the international reaction to the Ukraine crisis, with special attention to African states. Methods of cluster, correlation, and regression analyses are used to obtain an overall picture of the international reaction to the crisis over time and highlight factors that can influence the positions of states. The positions of African states cannot be easily explained by material factors but are rather th…
The Intervention That Originated the Post-Cold War Order
The article retraces how the Soviet Union and the United States tried to establish a partnership in the wake of Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait. The international community strongly condemned the invasion, and the two superpowers chose to cooperate in finding a solution to the crisis. The Soviet leadership was persistent in searching for a peaceful settlement. But the Bush administration, seeking to lay the grounds for U.S. dominance in a “new wor…
The United States’ Intervention in Afghanistan: The Dysfunction of a Centralized Authority in a Diverse Nation
This article reviews the US-led nation-building strategy effort in Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. The history of the nation-building efforts is retraced from the creation of the Republic to its ultimate collapse. The central argument of the paper stresses the dysfunctionality of the centralization approach adopted by several successive administrations in Kabul with the backing of the United States. The inquiry reveals the problems of implementa…
Will It Get Worse? Expert Perception of Global Transformation
Despite some idealistic views, the emergence of the multipolar world order is being accompanied by increased tensions and conflict. Current global changes are seen as similar in intensity to those which accompanied the First World War. However, there is no clear path for states seeking higher international status to exploit this historic momentum. Increased revisionism is perceived as associated with a higher risk of losing international status. …
The World Majority: Growing Significance but Inadequate Agency
The World Majority is better viewed as part of the international environment rather than a fully- fledged agent. The Majority can form and express opinions on others’ actions, with consequences in the international information environment, and it can collectively reject overly assertive actions, but it does not actually support the actions of anyone
China's Policy in the Black Sea Region: Between Global and Regional Interests
The article focuses on China’s policy in the Black Sea region. In particular, it shows how it is implemented under the influence of factors reorganizing the global system of international relations, as well as regional interests associated with the promotion of, first of all, the economic positions of the PRC. It is also important that the formation of Beijing’s Black Sea policy is influenced by interaction with Russia, which is a key player in t…
Legitimization of armed intervention through Western media narratives: 2000-2022, The period of instrumentalization of the Responsibility to Protect Concept
The article studies the evolution of the narrative of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P, Responsibility to Protect, RP) concept through the prism of armed intervention cases. This paper is a logical continuation of the article “Legitimizing armed intervention by means of Western media narratives: dominant narratives during the emergence of the Responsibility to Protect concept, 1990s”. The first article outlined the theoretical component and the…
Political science (21 works) · Law (16 works) · Economics (15 works) · Politics (15 works) · Law (11 works) · Sociology (11 works) · International Relations and Foreign Policy (9 works) · Development economics (8 works) · Political economy (7 works) · Economy (6 works)