Roger A Pielke
Biographic Data
| ID | 4151563 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Roger A Pielke |
| GIVEN NAMES | Roger A |
| FAMILY NAME | Pielke |
| SIGNATURE | PIELKE R A |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Colorado Boulder |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-9617-8764 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 57 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 268 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 57 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1995 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2024 |
| H-INDEX | 9 |
Bring digital twins back to Earth
We reflect on the development of digital twins of the Earth, which we associate with a reductionist view of nature as a machine. The projects of digital twins deviate from contemporary scientific paradigms in the treatment of complexity and uncertainty, and does not engage with critical and interpretative social sciences. We contest the utility of digital twins for addressing climate change issues and discuss societal risks associated with the co…
Th Anniversary of the Metaphorical Butterfly Effect since Lorenz (1972)
This year marks the 50th anniversary of the metaphorical butterfly effect, born from Edward Lorenz's 1963 work on initial condition sensitivity. In 1972, it became a metaphor for illustrating how minor changes could yield an organized system. •Lorenz Models: Chaos and Regime Changes: Explore Lorenz models' 1960–2008 evolution, chaos theory, and coexisting attractors. •Unraveling High-dimensional Instability: Challenge norms in "Butterfly Effect w…
Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100
Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are central to climate change research and policy. Here, we identify subsets of scenarios of the IPCC’s 5th (AR5) and forthcoming 6th (AR6) Assessment Reports, including the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios, that project 2005–2050 fossil-fuel-and-industry (FFI) CO 2 emissions growth rates most consistent with observations from 2005 to 2020 and International Ene…
Latent heat must be visible in climate communications
Anthropogenic forcing is driving energy accumulation in the Earth system, including increases in the sensible heat content of the atmosphere, as measured by dry‐bulb temperature—the metric that is almost universally used for communications about climate change. The atmosphere is also moistening, though, representing an accumulation of latent heat, which is partly concealed by dry‐bulb temperature trends. We highlight that, consistent with basic t…
Economic ‘normalisation’ of disaster losses 1998–2020
Nowadays, following every weather disaster quickly follow estimates of economic loss. Quick blame for those losses, or some part, often is placed on claims of more frequent or intense weather events. However, understanding what role changes in climate may have played in increasing weather-related disaster losses is challenging because, in addition to changes in climate, society also undergoes dramatic change. Increasing development and wealth inf…
Five ways to ensure that models serve society
IPCC baseline scenarios have over-projected CO 2 emissions and economic growth
Scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are central to climate science and policy. Recent studies find that observed trends and International Energy Agency (IEA) projections of global CO 2 emissions have diverged from emission scenario outlooks widely employed in climate research. Here, we quantify the bases for this divergence, focusing on Kaya Identity factors: population, per-capita gross domestic product (GDP), …
Reply to
Distorting the view of our climate future
Sport research and the policy movement
The modern policy movement in academia is often traced to the early 1950s in the United States, grounded in intellectual traditions that go back decades and centuries earlier. Since then, numerous schools and sects have developed around the world focussed on teaching, research and practice where academic research encounters public and private decision making. Policy studies, policy analysis, policy evaluation, policy sciences, applied ethics and …
Normalised insurance losses from Australian natural disasters
The paper updates normalisation of the Insurance Council of Australia's Disaster List in the light of debate about the contribution of global warming to the rising cost of natural disasters. Normalisation estimates losses from historical events in a common year, here 'season' 2017 defined as the 12-month period from 1 July 2017. The number and nominal cost of new residential dwellings are key normalising factors and post-1974 improvements in cons…
From Green Revolution to Green Evolution
Normalized hurricane damage in the continental United States 1900–2017
Tracking progress on the economic costs of disasters under the indicators of the sustainable development goals
The Sustainable Development Goals indicator framework identifies as an indicator of progress the objective of reducing disaster losses as a proportion of global gross domestic product. This short analysis presents data on this indicator from 1990. In constant 2017 US dollars, both weather-related and non-weather related catastrophe losses have increased, with a 74% increase in the former and 182% increase in the latter since 1990. However, since …
Land‐Use/Cover Change and Climate
Land‐use/cover change (LULCC) plays an important role in the climate system. Climatic impacts of LULCC can be observed at all spatiotemporal scales. LULCC results in the modification of both biogeophysical and biogeochemical properties of the land and atmosphere. Examples of biogeophysical characteristics can be leaf area index (LAI), surface roughness, and albedo, while biogeochemical could be the carbon and nitrogen budgets. Agricultural land u…
The Truthiness about Hurricane Catastrophe Models
In recent years, US policy makers have faced persistent calls for the price of flood and hurricane insurance cover to reflect the true or real risk. The appeal to a true or real measure of risk is rooted in two assumptions. First, scientific research can provide an accurate measure of risk. Second, this information can and should dictate decision-making about the cost of insurance. As a result, contemporary disputes over the cost of catastrophe i…
The Hurricane
First published in 1990, this book describes the nature of the hurricane, one of the world's most dangerous weather hazards. It examines the formation, development, movement, and impact of these tropical cyclones, and assess the ability of science to describe, forecast, and control them.
Climate vulnerability
Post-Normal Science in a German Landscape
This essay explores the management and creation of ignorance via an exploration of the landscape of eastern Germany, which has seen profound social, political, and technological changes over the past several decades. Like in many places around the world decision makers in eastern Germany are seeking to reach a future state where seemingly conflicting outcomes related to the economy and the environment are simultaneously realized. The management o…
Normalized tornado damage in the United States
In 2011, thunderstorms in the United States resulted in 550 deaths from tornadoes and more than $28 billion in property damage, according to data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, with the vast majority of economic losses resulting from tornadoes. This article normalizes U.S. tornado damage from 1950 to 2011, using several methods. A normalization provides an estimate of the damage that would occur if past events occurr…
Basic Research as a Political Symbol
Reply to the Nicholls (2010) comment on Crompton et al. (2010), “Influence of location, population, and climate on building damage and fatalities due to Australian bushfire
Corresponding author address: Ryan P. Crompton, Risk Frontiers, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia. Email: [email protected]
Effective media reporting of sea level rise projections
In the mass media, sea level rise is commonly associated with the impacts of climate change due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. As this issue garners ongoing international policy attention, segments of the scientific community have expressed unease about how this has been covered by mass media. Therefore, this study examines how sea level rise projections—in IPCC Assessment Reports and a sample of the scientific literature—have been r…
Emergence timescales for detection of anthropogenic climate change in US tropical cyclone loss data
Recent reviews have concluded that efforts to date have yet to detect or attribute an anthropogenic climate change influence on Atlantic tropical cyclone (of at least tropical storm strength) behaviour and concomitant damage. However, the possibility of identifying such influence in the future cannot be ruled out. Using projections of future tropical cyclone activity from a recent prominent study we estimate the time that it would take for anthro…
Land use/land cover changes and climate
This article summarizes the changes in landscape structure because of human land management over the last several centuries, and using observed and modeled data, documents how these changes have altered biogeophysical and biogeochemical surface fluxes on the local, mesoscale, and regional scales. Remaining research issues are presented including whether these landscape changes alter large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns far from where the …
The neglected heart of science policy
Rethinking the role of adaptation in climate policy
When scientists politicize science
Land use/land cover changes and climate
This article summarizes the changes in landscape structure because of human land management over the last several centuries, and using observed and modeled data, documents how these changes have altered biogeophysical and biogeochemical surface fluxes on the local, mesoscale, and regional scales. Remaining research issues are presented including whether these landscape changes alter large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns far from where the …
Misdefining “climate change”
What future for the policy sciences
Usable information for policy
A Democracy Paradox in Studies of Science and Technology
Today many scholars seem to agree that citizens should be involved in expert deliberations on science and technology issues. This interest in public deliberation has gained attraction in many practical settings, especially in the European Union, and holds the promise of more legitimate governance of science and technology. In this article, the authors draw on the European Commission's (EC) report ''Taking the European Knowledge Society Seriously'…
Basic Research as a Political Symbol
The Truthiness about Hurricane Catastrophe Models
In recent years, US policy makers have faced persistent calls for the price of flood and hurricane insurance cover to reflect the true or real risk. The appeal to a true or real measure of risk is rooted in two assumptions. First, scientific research can provide an accurate measure of risk. Second, this information can and should dictate decision-making about the cost of insurance. As a result, contemporary disputes over the cost of catastrophe i…
Distorting the view of our climate future
Policy history of the US Global Change Research Program
Normalized hurricane damage in the continental United States 1900–2017
Policy history of the US Global Change Research Program
Prediction in science and policy
Prediction in traditional, reductionist natural science serves the role of validating hypotheses about invariant natural phenomena. In recent years, a new type of prediction has arisen in science, motivated in part by the needs of policy makers and the availability of new technologies. This new predictive science seeks to foretell the behavior of complex environmental phenomena such as climate change, earthquakes, and extreme weather events. Sign…
From Green Revolution to Green Evolution
Tracking progress on the economic costs of disasters under the indicators of the sustainable development goals
The Sustainable Development Goals indicator framework identifies as an indicator of progress the objective of reducing disaster losses as a proportion of global gross domestic product. This short analysis presents data on this indicator from 1990. In constant 2017 US dollars, both weather-related and non-weather related catastrophe losses have increased, with a 74% increase in the former and 182% increase in the latter since 1990. However, since …
The Rise and Fall of the Science Advisor to the President of the United States
Mistreatment of the economic impacts of extreme events in the Stern Review Report on the Economics of Climate Change
Bringing Society Back into the Climate Debate
Bring digital twins back to Earth
We reflect on the development of digital twins of the Earth, which we associate with a reductionist view of nature as a machine. The projects of digital twins deviate from contemporary scientific paradigms in the treatment of complexity and uncertainty, and does not engage with critical and interpretative social sciences. We contest the utility of digital twins for addressing climate change issues and discuss societal risks associated with the co…
Normalized tornado damage in the United States
In 2011, thunderstorms in the United States resulted in 550 deaths from tornadoes and more than $28 billion in property damage, according to data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, with the vast majority of economic losses resulting from tornadoes. This article normalizes U.S. tornado damage from 1950 to 2011, using several methods. A normalization provides an estimate of the damage that would occur if past events occurr…
An idealized assessment of the economics of air capture of carbon dioxide in mitigation policy
Latent heat must be visible in climate communications
Anthropogenic forcing is driving energy accumulation in the Earth system, including increases in the sensible heat content of the atmosphere, as measured by dry‐bulb temperature—the metric that is almost universally used for communications about climate change. The atmosphere is also moistening, though, representing an accumulation of latent heat, which is partly concealed by dry‐bulb temperature trends. We highlight that, consistent with basic t…
Normalised insurance losses from Australian natural disasters
The paper updates normalisation of the Insurance Council of Australia's Disaster List in the light of debate about the contribution of global warming to the rising cost of natural disasters. Normalisation estimates losses from historical events in a common year, here 'season' 2017 defined as the 12-month period from 1 July 2017. The number and nominal cost of new residential dwellings are key normalising factors and post-1974 improvements in cons…
Usable information for policy
Refraining the U.S. hurricane problem
In all, 1995 was the most active Atlantic hurricane season in 62 years. Six hurricanes came near or crossed the U.S. coastline, briefly focusing public attention on the impacts of hurricanes. Attention to the policy implications of hurricane impacts in the form of systematic policy analyses is sorely needed. The active season of 1995 followed several decades of depressed hurricane frequencies. The long period of relatively few storms has led to i…
Rethinking the role of adaptation in climate policy
Prediction in science and policy
Prediction in traditional, reductionist natural science serves the role of validating hypotheses about invariant natural phenomena. In recent years, a new type of prediction has arisen in science, motivated in part by the needs of policy makers and the availability of new technologies. This new predictive science seeks to foretell the behavior of complex environmental phenomena such as climate change, earthquakes, and extreme weather events. Sign…
Policy history of the US Global Change Research Program
Policy history of the US Global Change Research Program
Laird, Frank N., Solar Energy, Technology Policy, and Institutional Values
When scientists politicize science
What future for the policy sciences? A rejoinder to Muth, Pelletier, and Wallace
What future for the policy sciences
Response to Lövbrand and Öberg
Misdefining “climate change”
Bringing Society Back into the Climate Debate
The neglected heart of science policy
Lifting the taboo on adaptation
Human Impacts on Weather and Climate
This 2007 edition of Human Impacts on Weather and Climate examines the scientific and political debates surrounding anthropogenic impacts on the Earth's climate and presents the most recent theories, data and modeling studies. The book discusses the concepts behind deliberate human attempts to modify the weather through cloud seeding, as well as inadvertent modification of weather and climate on the regional scale. The natural variability of weat…
The Honest Broker
Scientists have a choice concerning what role they should play in political debates and policy formation, particularly in terms of how they present their research. This book is about understanding this choice, what considerations are important to think about when deciding, and the consequences of such choices for the individual scientist and the broader scientific enterprise. Rather than prescribing what course of action each scientist ought to t…
Mistreatment of the economic impacts of extreme events in the Stern Review Report on the Economics of Climate Change
Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States
After more than two decades of relatively little Atlantic hurricane activity, the past decade saw heightened hurricane activity and more than $150 billion in damage in 2004 and 2005. This paper normalizes mainland U.S. hurricane damage from 1900–2005 to 2005 values using two methodologies. A normalization provides an estimate of the damage that would occur if storms from the past made landfall under another year’s societal conditions. Our methods…
Increased hurricane losses due to growing population and wealth in coastal areas
After more than two decades of relatively little Atlantic hurricane activity, the past decade saw heightened hurricane activity and more than $150 billion in damage in 2004 and 2005.This paper normalizes mainland U.S. hurricane damage from 1900-2005 to 2005 values using two methodologies.A normalization provides an estimate of the damage that would occur if storms from the past made landfall under another year's societal conditions.Our methods us…
Mamizu climate policy
This letter evaluates Japan's so-called 'Mamizu' climate policies proposed in mid-2009 in terms of the implied rates of decarbonization of the Japanese economy for short-term and long-term targets. The letter uses the Kaya identity to structure the evaluation, employing both a bottom up approach (based on projections of future Japanese population, economic growth, and technology) and a top down approach (deriving implied rates of decarbonization …
The British Climate Change Act
This paper evaluates the United Kingdom's Climate Change Act of 2008 in terms of the implied rates of decarbonization of the UK economy for a short-term and a long-term target established in law. The paper uses the Kaya identity to structure the evaluation, employing both a bottom up approach (based on projections of future UK population, economic growth, and technology) and a top down approach (deriving implied rates of decarbonization consisten…
United States hurricane landfalls and damages
This paper asks whether one- to five-year predictions of United States hurricane landfalls and damages improve upon a baseline expectation derived from the climatological record. The paper argues that the large diversity of available predictions means that some predictions will improve upon climatology, but for decades if not longer it will be impossible to know whether these improvements were due to chance or actual skill. A review of efforts to…
Innovation Policy in Europe
An idealized assessment of the economics of air capture of carbon dioxide in mitigation policy
Political science (35 works) · Economics (28 works) · Climate change (25 works) · Geography (24 works) · Environmental Science (23 works) · Computer Science (19 works) · Law (19 works) · Sociology (19 works) · Law (15 works) · Climate Change Policy and Economics (14 works)