Max-Sebastian Dovì
Biographic Data
| ID | 4158183 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Max-Sebastian Dovì |
| GIVEN NAMES | Max-Sebastian |
| FAMILY NAME | Dovì |
| SIGNATURE | DOVÌ M |
| AFFILIATIONS | International Monetary Fund |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-4145-5963 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 4 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 0 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 4 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2018 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 0 |
Multivariate Trend Inflation in the United States and the Euro Area
I provide a precision‐sampler‐based replication of the multivariate unobserved component stochastic volatility outlier‐adjusted model of Stock and Watson (2016) applied to inflation in the United States and the Euro Area (EA). I find a substantial post‐2020 increase in trend inflation for both the United States and the EA, and estimate end‐2024 trend inflation at 2.3 and 2.0 percent, respectively
Inference with High-Dimensional Weak Instruments and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
Inference on macroeconomic relations using instrumental variables (IVs) is often characterised by weak and high-dimensional IVs. I propose a weak-IV robust method that remains valid under dependent data, arbitrarily weak identification, and a number of IVs that can increase exponentially with the sample size. I show by simulation that using methods that are not robust to weak and high-dimensional IVs can lead to substantially biased inference, wh…
A Ridge-Regularized Jackknifed Anderson-Rubin Test
We consider hypothesis testing in instrumental variable regression models with few included exogenous covariates but many instruments-possibly more than the number of observations. We show that a ridge-regularized version of the jackknifed Anderson and Rubin (henceforth AR) test controls asymptotic size in the presence of heteroscedasticity, and when the instruments may be arbitrarily weak. Asymptotic size control is established under weaker assu…
Party and state policy documents and China’s economy
This paper compares a unique dataset tracking the content of all Central Committee and State Council documents with economic variables in China in the period 2003–2015. After motivating the dataset, two time-series measuring the relative importance of economic issues within the Party and the State are constructed. These two time-series are then compared with measures of China’s real economy using a Granger test. The results suggest that past meas…
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Party and state policy documents and China’s economy
This paper compares a unique dataset tracking the content of all Central Committee and State Council documents with economic variables in China in the period 2003–2015. After motivating the dataset, two time-series measuring the relative importance of economic issues within the Party and the State are constructed. These two time-series are then compared with measures of China’s real economy using a Granger test. The results suggest that past meas…
A Ridge-Regularized Jackknifed Anderson-Rubin Test
We consider hypothesis testing in instrumental variable regression models with few included exogenous covariates but many instruments-possibly more than the number of observations. We show that a ridge-regularized version of the jackknifed Anderson and Rubin (henceforth AR) test controls asymptotic size in the presence of heteroscedasticity, and when the instruments may be arbitrarily weak. Asymptotic size control is established under weaker assu…
Inference with High-Dimensional Weak Instruments and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
Inference on macroeconomic relations using instrumental variables (IVs) is often characterised by weak and high-dimensional IVs. I propose a weak-IV robust method that remains valid under dependent data, arbitrarily weak identification, and a number of IVs that can increase exponentially with the sample size. I show by simulation that using methods that are not robust to weak and high-dimensional IVs can lead to substantially biased inference, wh…
Multivariate Trend Inflation in the United States and the Euro Area
I provide a precision‐sampler‐based replication of the multivariate unobserved component stochastic volatility outlier‐adjusted model of Stock and Watson (2016) applied to inflation in the United States and the Euro Area (EA). I find a substantial post‐2020 increase in trend inflation for both the United States and the EA, and estimate end‐2024 trend inflation at 2.3 and 2.0 percent, respectively
Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (3 works) · Computer Science (2 works) · Econometrics (2 works) · Economics (2 works) · Advanced Statistical Methods and Models (1 work) · Artificial Intelligence (1 work) · Cartography (1 work) · China (1 work) · Cointegration (1 work) · Covariate (1 work)