Hal Caswell
Biographic Data
| ID | 4197322 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Hal Caswell |
| GIVEN NAMES | Hal |
| FAMILY NAME | Caswell |
| SIGNATURE | CASWELL H |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Amsterdam |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-4394-6894 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 23 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 169 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 23 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2000 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 8 |
Delayed reproduction has unexpected effects on population growth and structure
It is widely accepted that delayed reproduction reduces the population growth rate, with associated effects on population structure and size. Policies (e.g., “later, longer, fewer”) have been based on this conclusion. However, it is rarely noted that the negative effect of reproductive delay on population growth applies to populations with positive growth rates. Many countries now experience below-replacement fertility levels and growth rates tha…
The Present and Future Dementia Burden in China: Kinship-Based Projections and Global Comparisons
China has the largest number of patients with dementia in the world, and the rate of growth is expected to escalate further as the population ages. The majority of dementia patients rely on their families for care and assistance. Using demographic models of kinship, we provide quantitative estimates of the burden of dementia, from 1990 up to 2050, by illustrating the number of kin accessible to dementia patients, the dementia prevalence among kin…
The formal demography of kinship VII: Lifetime kin overlap within and across generations
BACKGROUND Interactions among kin have important consequences, including resource transfers, alloparenting, health care, and economic support. Some interactions require that the lives of the interacting relatives overlap. The overlap over a lifetime (lifetime kin overlap, LKO) depends on mortality (longer lives give more opportunity for overlap) and fertility (higher fertility produces more kin with which to overlap). Here we provide a general so…
The formal demography of kinship VI: Demographic stochasticity and variance in the kinship network
BACKGROUND: Although the matrix model for kinship networks includes many demographic processes, it is deterministic. It provides values of age-stage distributions of kin, but no information on (co)variances. Because kin populations are small, demographic stochasticity is expected to create appreciable inter-individual variation. OBJECTIVE: To develop a stochastic kinship model that includes demographic stochasticity and projects (co)variances of …
The contributions of stochastic demography and social inequality to lifespan variability
BACKGROUND Individual lifespans differ. Some of those differences are due to heterogeneity, some to stochasticity. Some of the heterogeneity is due to socioeconomic, physiological, or environmental differences; some to unobserved latent factors. All of these are, from time to time, called inequality. OBJECTIVE This paper aims to clarify the relations between heterogeneity, stochasticity, inequality of opportunity, and inequality of outcome in a w…
The formal demography of kinship V: Kin loss, bereavement, and causes of death
Background: The death of kin has psychological, physical, and economic effects on other members of a kinship network. Recently developed formal demographic models provide the deaths of kin, of any kind, at any age of a Focal individual. However, causes of death have yet to be accounted for. Objectives: Our objective is to extend the matrix kinship model to analyze losses of kin by cause of death, given age-specific schedules of risk due to each c…
How does the demographic transition affect kinship networks
Kinship groups can have considerable importance (e.g., generational support, inheritance, and information for key life events). During demographic transitions, kinship networks are reshaped by changes in mortality and fertility rates
The Role of Kinship in Racial Differences in Exposure to Unemployment
Most studies on unemployment have assessed its individual-level costs. However, beyond its effects on individuals, unemployment incurs costs for their immediate families and extended kin. Close kin provide the majority of social support for unemployed adults. Applying demographic and statistical techniques to official statistics and using COVID-19 survey data on kinship and labor force experience, we assess the unemployment level and exposure to …
The formal demography of kinship IV: Two-sex models and their approximations
Previous kinship models analyze female kin through female lines of descent, neglecting male kin and male lines of descent. Because males and females differ in mortality and fertility, including both sexes in kinship models is an important unsolved problem
The formal demography of kinship III: Kinship dynamics with time-varying demographic rates
Kinship models, from the pioneering work of Goodman, Keyï¬ tz, and Pullum to the recent matrix-oriented approach of Caswell, have assumed time-invariant demographic rates, and computed the kinship structures implied by those rates. In reality, however, demog
Healthy longevity from incidence-based models: More kinds of health than stars in the sky
Healthy longevity (HL) is an important measure of the prospects for quality of life in ageing societies. Incidence-based (cf. prevalence-based) models describe transitions among age classes and health stages. Despite the probabilistic nature of those trans
The formal demography of kinship II: Multistate models, parity, and sibship
Recent kinship models focus on the age structures of kin as a function of the age of the focal individual. However, variables in addition to age have important impacts. Generalizing age-speciï¬ c models to multistate models including other variables is an im
The formal demography of kinship: A matrix formulation
Any individual is surrounded by a network of kin that develops over her lifetime. In a justly famous paper, Goodman, Keyï¬ tz, and Pullum (1974) presented formal calculations of the mean numbers of (female, matrilineal) kin implied by a mortality and fertili
Lifetime reproduction and the second demographic transition: Stochasticity and individual variation
In the last half of the previous century many developed countries went through a period of decreasing fertility rates, referred to as the second demographic transition. This transition is often measured using the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which gives the
The sensitivity analysis of population projections
Population projections using the cohort component method can be written as time-varying matrix population models. The matrices are parameterized by schedules of mortality, fertility, immigration, and emigration over the duration of the projection. A vari
Demography and the statistics of lifetime economic transfers under individual stochasticity
As individuals progress through the life cycle, they receive income and consume goods and services. The age schedules of labor income, consumption, and life cycle deficit reflect the economic roles played at different ages. Lifetime accumulation of economi
Why do lifespan variability trends for the young and old diverge? A perturbation analysis
BACKGROUND: Variation in lifespan has followed strikingly different trends for the young and old: while total lifespan variability has decreased as life expectancy at birth has risen, the variability conditional on survival to older ages has increased. These diverging trends reflect changes in the underlying demographic parameters determining age-specific mortality. OBJECTIVE: We ask why the variation in the ages at death after survival to adult …
A matrix approach to the statistics of longevity in heterogeneous frailty models
The gamma-Gompertz model is a fixed frailty model in which baseline mortality increases exponentially with age, frailty has a proportional effect on mortality, and frailty at birth follows a gamma distribution. Mortality selects against the more frail, so
Perturbation Analysis of Indices of Lifespan Variability
A number of indices exist to calculate lifespan variation, each with different underlying properties. Here, we present new formulae for the response of seven of these indices to changes in the underlying mortality schedule (life disparity, Gini coefficient, standard deviation, variance, Theil’s index, mean logarithmic deviation, and interquartile range). We derive each of these indices from an absorbing Markov chain formulation of the life table,…
Reproductive value, the stable stage distribution, and the sensitivity of the population growth rate to changes in vital rates
The population growth rate, or intrinsic rate of increase, is the rate of growth that will be achieved by a population with fixed vital rates. The sensitivity of population growth rate to changes in the vital rates can be written in terms of the stable stage or age distribution and the reproductive value distribution. If the vital rate measures the rate of production of one type of individual by another, then the sensitivity of growth rate is pro…
Perturbation analysis of nonlinear matrix population models
Perturbation analysis examines the response of a model to changes in its parameters. It is commonly applied to population growth rates calculated from linear models, but there has been no general approach to the analysis of nonlinear models. Nonlineari
Applied Mathematical Demography (Statistics for Biology and Health)
The third edition of this classic text maintains its focus on applications of demographic models, while extending its scope to matrix models for stage-classified populations. The authors first introduce the life table to describe age-specific mortality, and then use it to develop theory for stable populations and the rate of population increase. This theory is then revisited in the context of matrix models, for stage-classified as well as age-cla…
Matrix Population Models: Construction, Analysis, and Interpretation
Perturbation Analysis of Indices of Lifespan Variability
A number of indices exist to calculate lifespan variation, each with different underlying properties. Here, we present new formulae for the response of seven of these indices to changes in the underlying mortality schedule (life disparity, Gini coefficient, standard deviation, variance, Theil’s index, mean logarithmic deviation, and interquartile range). We derive each of these indices from an absorbing Markov chain formulation of the life table,…
The formal demography of kinship: A matrix formulation
Any individual is surrounded by a network of kin that develops over her lifetime. In a justly famous paper, Goodman, Keyï¬ tz, and Pullum (1974) presented formal calculations of the mean numbers of (female, matrilineal) kin implied by a mortality and fertili
The formal demography of kinship II: Multistate models, parity, and sibship
Recent kinship models focus on the age structures of kin as a function of the age of the focal individual. However, variables in addition to age have important impacts. Generalizing age-speciï¬ c models to multistate models including other variables is an im
The formal demography of kinship III: Kinship dynamics with time-varying demographic rates
Kinship models, from the pioneering work of Goodman, Keyï¬ tz, and Pullum to the recent matrix-oriented approach of Caswell, have assumed time-invariant demographic rates, and computed the kinship structures implied by those rates. In reality, however, demog
Why do lifespan variability trends for the young and old diverge? A perturbation analysis
BACKGROUND: Variation in lifespan has followed strikingly different trends for the young and old: while total lifespan variability has decreased as life expectancy at birth has risen, the variability conditional on survival to older ages has increased. These diverging trends reflect changes in the underlying demographic parameters determining age-specific mortality. OBJECTIVE: We ask why the variation in the ages at death after survival to adult …
A matrix approach to the statistics of longevity in heterogeneous frailty models
The gamma-Gompertz model is a fixed frailty model in which baseline mortality increases exponentially with age, frailty has a proportional effect on mortality, and frailty at birth follows a gamma distribution. Mortality selects against the more frail, so
Perturbation analysis of nonlinear matrix population models
Perturbation analysis examines the response of a model to changes in its parameters. It is commonly applied to population growth rates calculated from linear models, but there has been no general approach to the analysis of nonlinear models. Nonlineari
The formal demography of kinship IV: Two-sex models and their approximations
Previous kinship models analyze female kin through female lines of descent, neglecting male kin and male lines of descent. Because males and females differ in mortality and fertility, including both sexes in kinship models is an important unsolved problem
Lifetime reproduction and the second demographic transition: Stochasticity and individual variation
In the last half of the previous century many developed countries went through a period of decreasing fertility rates, referred to as the second demographic transition. This transition is often measured using the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which gives the
Demography and the statistics of lifetime economic transfers under individual stochasticity
As individuals progress through the life cycle, they receive income and consume goods and services. The age schedules of labor income, consumption, and life cycle deficit reflect the economic roles played at different ages. Lifetime accumulation of economi
The formal demography of kinship V: Kin loss, bereavement, and causes of death
Background: The death of kin has psychological, physical, and economic effects on other members of a kinship network. Recently developed formal demographic models provide the deaths of kin, of any kind, at any age of a Focal individual. However, causes of death have yet to be accounted for. Objectives: Our objective is to extend the matrix kinship model to analyze losses of kin by cause of death, given age-specific schedules of risk due to each c…
How does the demographic transition affect kinship networks
Kinship groups can have considerable importance (e.g., generational support, inheritance, and information for key life events). During demographic transitions, kinship networks are reshaped by changes in mortality and fertility rates
The Role of Kinship in Racial Differences in Exposure to Unemployment
Most studies on unemployment have assessed its individual-level costs. However, beyond its effects on individuals, unemployment incurs costs for their immediate families and extended kin. Close kin provide the majority of social support for unemployed adults. Applying demographic and statistical techniques to official statistics and using COVID-19 survey data on kinship and labor force experience, we assess the unemployment level and exposure to …
Healthy longevity from incidence-based models: More kinds of health than stars in the sky
Healthy longevity (HL) is an important measure of the prospects for quality of life in ageing societies. Incidence-based (cf. prevalence-based) models describe transitions among age classes and health stages. Despite the probabilistic nature of those trans
The formal demography of kinship VI: Demographic stochasticity and variance in the kinship network
BACKGROUND: Although the matrix model for kinship networks includes many demographic processes, it is deterministic. It provides values of age-stage distributions of kin, but no information on (co)variances. Because kin populations are small, demographic stochasticity is expected to create appreciable inter-individual variation. OBJECTIVE: To develop a stochastic kinship model that includes demographic stochasticity and projects (co)variances of …
The contributions of stochastic demography and social inequality to lifespan variability
BACKGROUND Individual lifespans differ. Some of those differences are due to heterogeneity, some to stochasticity. Some of the heterogeneity is due to socioeconomic, physiological, or environmental differences; some to unobserved latent factors. All of these are, from time to time, called inequality. OBJECTIVE This paper aims to clarify the relations between heterogeneity, stochasticity, inequality of opportunity, and inequality of outcome in a w…
The sensitivity analysis of population projections
Population projections using the cohort component method can be written as time-varying matrix population models. The matrices are parameterized by schedules of mortality, fertility, immigration, and emigration over the duration of the projection. A vari
Reproductive value, the stable stage distribution, and the sensitivity of the population growth rate to changes in vital rates
The population growth rate, or intrinsic rate of increase, is the rate of growth that will be achieved by a population with fixed vital rates. The sensitivity of population growth rate to changes in the vital rates can be written in terms of the stable stage or age distribution and the reproductive value distribution. If the vital rate measures the rate of production of one type of individual by another, then the sensitivity of growth rate is pro…
Matrix Population Models: Construction, Analysis, and Interpretation
Applied Mathematical Demography (Statistics for Biology and Health)
The third edition of this classic text maintains its focus on applications of demographic models, while extending its scope to matrix models for stage-classified populations. The authors first introduce the life table to describe age-specific mortality, and then use it to develop theory for stable populations and the rate of population increase. This theory is then revisited in the context of matrix models, for stage-classified as well as age-cla…
Perturbation analysis of nonlinear matrix population models
Perturbation analysis examines the response of a model to changes in its parameters. It is commonly applied to population growth rates calculated from linear models, but there has been no general approach to the analysis of nonlinear models. Nonlineari
Reproductive value, the stable stage distribution, and the sensitivity of the population growth rate to changes in vital rates
The population growth rate, or intrinsic rate of increase, is the rate of growth that will be achieved by a population with fixed vital rates. The sensitivity of population growth rate to changes in the vital rates can be written in terms of the stable stage or age distribution and the reproductive value distribution. If the vital rate measures the rate of production of one type of individual by another, then the sensitivity of growth rate is pro…
Perturbation Analysis of Indices of Lifespan Variability
A number of indices exist to calculate lifespan variation, each with different underlying properties. Here, we present new formulae for the response of seven of these indices to changes in the underlying mortality schedule (life disparity, Gini coefficient, standard deviation, variance, Theil’s index, mean logarithmic deviation, and interquartile range). We derive each of these indices from an absorbing Markov chain formulation of the life table,…
Why do lifespan variability trends for the young and old diverge? A perturbation analysis
BACKGROUND: Variation in lifespan has followed strikingly different trends for the young and old: while total lifespan variability has decreased as life expectancy at birth has risen, the variability conditional on survival to older ages has increased. These diverging trends reflect changes in the underlying demographic parameters determining age-specific mortality. OBJECTIVE: We ask why the variation in the ages at death after survival to adult …
A matrix approach to the statistics of longevity in heterogeneous frailty models
The gamma-Gompertz model is a fixed frailty model in which baseline mortality increases exponentially with age, frailty has a proportional effect on mortality, and frailty at birth follows a gamma distribution. Mortality selects against the more frail, so
Lifetime reproduction and the second demographic transition: Stochasticity and individual variation
In the last half of the previous century many developed countries went through a period of decreasing fertility rates, referred to as the second demographic transition. This transition is often measured using the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which gives the
The sensitivity analysis of population projections
Population projections using the cohort component method can be written as time-varying matrix population models. The matrices are parameterized by schedules of mortality, fertility, immigration, and emigration over the duration of the projection. A vari
Demography and the statistics of lifetime economic transfers under individual stochasticity
As individuals progress through the life cycle, they receive income and consume goods and services. The age schedules of labor income, consumption, and life cycle deficit reflect the economic roles played at different ages. Lifetime accumulation of economi
The formal demography of kinship: A matrix formulation
Any individual is surrounded by a network of kin that develops over her lifetime. In a justly famous paper, Goodman, Keyï¬ tz, and Pullum (1974) presented formal calculations of the mean numbers of (female, matrilineal) kin implied by a mortality and fertili
The formal demography of kinship II: Multistate models, parity, and sibship
Recent kinship models focus on the age structures of kin as a function of the age of the focal individual. However, variables in addition to age have important impacts. Generalizing age-speciï¬ c models to multistate models including other variables is an im
The formal demography of kinship III: Kinship dynamics with time-varying demographic rates
Kinship models, from the pioneering work of Goodman, Keyï¬ tz, and Pullum to the recent matrix-oriented approach of Caswell, have assumed time-invariant demographic rates, and computed the kinship structures implied by those rates. In reality, however, demog
Healthy longevity from incidence-based models: More kinds of health than stars in the sky
Healthy longevity (HL) is an important measure of the prospects for quality of life in ageing societies. Incidence-based (cf. prevalence-based) models describe transitions among age classes and health stages. Despite the probabilistic nature of those trans
The Role of Kinship in Racial Differences in Exposure to Unemployment
Most studies on unemployment have assessed its individual-level costs. However, beyond its effects on individuals, unemployment incurs costs for their immediate families and extended kin. Close kin provide the majority of social support for unemployed adults. Applying demographic and statistical techniques to official statistics and using COVID-19 survey data on kinship and labor force experience, we assess the unemployment level and exposure to …
The formal demography of kinship IV: Two-sex models and their approximations
Previous kinship models analyze female kin through female lines of descent, neglecting male kin and male lines of descent. Because males and females differ in mortality and fertility, including both sexes in kinship models is an important unsolved problem
The contributions of stochastic demography and social inequality to lifespan variability
BACKGROUND Individual lifespans differ. Some of those differences are due to heterogeneity, some to stochasticity. Some of the heterogeneity is due to socioeconomic, physiological, or environmental differences; some to unobserved latent factors. All of these are, from time to time, called inequality. OBJECTIVE This paper aims to clarify the relations between heterogeneity, stochasticity, inequality of opportunity, and inequality of outcome in a w…
The formal demography of kinship V: Kin loss, bereavement, and causes of death
Background: The death of kin has psychological, physical, and economic effects on other members of a kinship network. Recently developed formal demographic models provide the deaths of kin, of any kind, at any age of a Focal individual. However, causes of death have yet to be accounted for. Objectives: Our objective is to extend the matrix kinship model to analyze losses of kin by cause of death, given age-specific schedules of risk due to each c…
How does the demographic transition affect kinship networks
Kinship groups can have considerable importance (e.g., generational support, inheritance, and information for key life events). During demographic transitions, kinship networks are reshaped by changes in mortality and fertility rates
The formal demography of kinship VI: Demographic stochasticity and variance in the kinship network
BACKGROUND: Although the matrix model for kinship networks includes many demographic processes, it is deterministic. It provides values of age-stage distributions of kin, but no information on (co)variances. Because kin populations are small, demographic stochasticity is expected to create appreciable inter-individual variation. OBJECTIVE: To develop a stochastic kinship model that includes demographic stochasticity and projects (co)variances of …
The Present and Future Dementia Burden in China: Kinship-Based Projections and Global Comparisons
China has the largest number of patients with dementia in the world, and the rate of growth is expected to escalate further as the population ages. The majority of dementia patients rely on their families for care and assistance. Using demographic models of kinship, we provide quantitative estimates of the burden of dementia, from 1990 up to 2050, by illustrating the number of kin accessible to dementia patients, the dementia prevalence among kin…
The formal demography of kinship VII: Lifetime kin overlap within and across generations
BACKGROUND Interactions among kin have important consequences, including resource transfers, alloparenting, health care, and economic support. Some interactions require that the lives of the interacting relatives overlap. The overlap over a lifetime (lifetime kin overlap, LKO) depends on mortality (longer lives give more opportunity for overlap) and fertility (higher fertility produces more kin with which to overlap). Here we provide a general so…
Delayed reproduction has unexpected effects on population growth and structure
It is widely accepted that delayed reproduction reduces the population growth rate, with associated effects on population structure and size. Policies (e.g., “later, longer, fewer”) have been based on this conclusion. However, it is rarely noted that the negative effect of reproductive delay on population growth applies to populations with positive growth rates. Many countries now experience below-replacement fertility levels and growth rates tha…
Demography (17 works) · Sociology (17 works) · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management (16 works) · Geography (11 works) · Population (11 works) · Kinship (10 works) · Mathematics (9 works) · Anthropology (7 works) · Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences (7 works) · Genealogy (7 works)