Michael Kirley
Biographic Data
| ID | 4236341 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Michael Kirley |
| GIVEN NAMES | Michael |
| FAMILY NAME | Kirley |
| SIGNATURE | KIRLEY M |
| AFFILIATIONS | The University of Melbourne |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-6030-858X |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 6 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 30 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 6 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2016 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2024 |
| H-INDEX | 3 |
Development and evaluation of probabilistic forecasting methods for small area populations
Planning and development decisions in both the government and business sectors often require small area population forecasts. Unfortunately, current methods often produce forecasts that are inaccurate, particularly for remote areas and those with smaller populations. Such inaccuracy necessitates the development and evaluation of methods to forecast and communicate forecast uncertainty, however, little research has been conducted in this domain fo…
Intentional Action, Know-how, and Lucky Success
Elizabeth Anscombe held that acting intentionally entails knowing (in a distinctively practical way) what one is doing. The consensus for many years was that this knowledge thesis faces decisive counterexamples, the most famous being Donald Davidson’s carbon copier case, and so should be rejected or at least significantly weakened. Recently, however, a new defense of the knowledge thesis has emerged: provided one understands the knowledge in ques…
Can machine learning improve small area population forecasts? A forecast combination approach
Norm talk and human cooperation: Can we talk ourselves into cooperation
Norm talk is verbal communication that explicitly states or implicitly implies a social norm. To investigate its ability to shape cultural dynamics, 2 types of norm talk were examined: injunction, which explicitly states what should be done, and gossip, which implies a norm by stating an action approved or disapproved of by the communicator. In 2 experiments, participants engaged in norm talk in repeated public goods games. Norm talk was found to…
Computational Social Psychology
This chapter provides a broad and selective introduction to diverse literatures on computational approaches to cultural dynamics. It explains the social psychological models of cultural dynamics, and then move to two prominent approaches to cultural dynamics— Axelrod's model of cultural dissemination and evolutionary game theoretic approaches to evolution of cooperation. These approaches focus on complementary aspects of cultural dynamics, and th…
Diversity and Community Can Coexist
We examine the (in)compatibility of diversity and sense of community by means of agent-based models based on the well-known Schelling model of residential segregation and Axelrod model of cultural dissemination. We find that diversity and highly clustered social networks, on the assumptions of social tie formation based on spatial proximity and homophily, are incompatible when agent features are immutable, and this holds even for multiple indepen…
Diversity and Community Can Coexist
We examine the (in)compatibility of diversity and sense of community by means of agent-based models based on the well-known Schelling model of residential segregation and Axelrod model of cultural dissemination. We find that diversity and highly clustered social networks, on the assumptions of social tie formation based on spatial proximity and homophily, are incompatible when agent features are immutable, and this holds even for multiple indepen…
Computational Social Psychology
This chapter provides a broad and selective introduction to diverse literatures on computational approaches to cultural dynamics. It explains the social psychological models of cultural dynamics, and then move to two prominent approaches to cultural dynamics— Axelrod's model of cultural dissemination and evolutionary game theoretic approaches to evolution of cooperation. These approaches focus on complementary aspects of cultural dynamics, and th…
Norm talk and human cooperation: Can we talk ourselves into cooperation
Norm talk is verbal communication that explicitly states or implicitly implies a social norm. To investigate its ability to shape cultural dynamics, 2 types of norm talk were examined: injunction, which explicitly states what should be done, and gossip, which implies a norm by stating an action approved or disapproved of by the communicator. In 2 experiments, participants engaged in norm talk in repeated public goods games. Norm talk was found to…
Diversity and Community Can Coexist
We examine the (in)compatibility of diversity and sense of community by means of agent-based models based on the well-known Schelling model of residential segregation and Axelrod model of cultural dissemination. We find that diversity and highly clustered social networks, on the assumptions of social tie formation based on spatial proximity and homophily, are incompatible when agent features are immutable, and this holds even for multiple indepen…
Computational Social Psychology
This chapter provides a broad and selective introduction to diverse literatures on computational approaches to cultural dynamics. It explains the social psychological models of cultural dynamics, and then move to two prominent approaches to cultural dynamics— Axelrod's model of cultural dissemination and evolutionary game theoretic approaches to evolution of cooperation. These approaches focus on complementary aspects of cultural dynamics, and th…
Norm talk and human cooperation: Can we talk ourselves into cooperation
Norm talk is verbal communication that explicitly states or implicitly implies a social norm. To investigate its ability to shape cultural dynamics, 2 types of norm talk were examined: injunction, which explicitly states what should be done, and gossip, which implies a norm by stating an action approved or disapproved of by the communicator. In 2 experiments, participants engaged in norm talk in repeated public goods games. Norm talk was found to…
Can machine learning improve small area population forecasts? A forecast combination approach
Intentional Action, Know-how, and Lucky Success
Elizabeth Anscombe held that acting intentionally entails knowing (in a distinctively practical way) what one is doing. The consensus for many years was that this knowledge thesis faces decisive counterexamples, the most famous being Donald Davidson’s carbon copier case, and so should be rejected or at least significantly weakened. Recently, however, a new defense of the knowledge thesis has emerged: provided one understands the knowledge in ques…
Development and evaluation of probabilistic forecasting methods for small area populations
Planning and development decisions in both the government and business sectors often require small area population forecasts. Unfortunately, current methods often produce forecasts that are inaccurate, particularly for remote areas and those with smaller populations. Such inaccuracy necessitates the development and evaluation of methods to forecast and communicate forecast uncertainty, however, little research has been conducted in this domain fo…
Psychology (4 works) · Artificial Intelligence (3 works) · Computer Science (3 works) · Consensus forecast (2 works) · Cultural Differences and Values (2 works) · demographic modeling and climate adaptation (2 works) · Econometrics (2 works) · Evolutionary Game Theory and Cooperation (2 works) · Exponential smoothing (2 works) · Machine learning (2 works)