Augusto Cerqua
Biographic Data
| ID | 4264614 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Augusto Cerqua |
| GIVEN NAMES | Augusto |
| FAMILY NAME | Cerqua |
| SIGNATURE | CERQUA A |
| AFFILIATIONS | Sapienza University of Rome |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-7029-0523 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 17 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 17 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 17 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2017 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 3 |
On the (Mis)Use of Machine Learning With Panel Data
We provide the first systematic assessment of data leakage issues in the use of machine learning on panel data. Our organising framework clarifies why neglecting the cross‐sectional and longitudinal structure of these data leads to hard‐to‐detect data leakage, inflated out‐of‐sample performance, and an inadvertent overestimation of the real‐world usefulness and applicability of machine learning models. We then offer empirical guidelines for pract…
The Causal Relationship Between Jurisdiction Size and Institutional Quality
While the relationship between jurisdiction size and economic and electoral outcomes has been extensively studied, its causal impact on institutional capacity and quality remains unexplored. Leveraging the mergers of 197 Italian municipalities, we investigate changes in administrative quality using the Municipal Administration Quality Index (MAQI), a novel composite measure of local administrative capacity and quality based on three pillars: bure…
The Bright Side of Breaking Up
Territorial reforms of administrative boundaries primarily aim at pursuing cost and administrative efficiency objectives, but their impact on the political engagement of local communities remains unclear. Moreover, while amalgamations have been widely studied, little is known about the effects of territorial fragmentation. To bridge this gap, we examine a regional reform in Italy's Apulia region, wherein five municipalities voluntarily underwent …
The Municipal Administration Quality Index
Does R&D Expenditure Boost Economic Growth In Lagging Regions
We assess the impact of the EU Regional Policy on regional economic growth by applying a new evaluation strategy, which integrates mediation analysis with a quasi-experimental framework. Using the R&D expenditure as an indicator of innovation capability, we evaluate how much of the total effect of the EU Regional Policy is due to R&D in the poorest EU regions. Consistently with the previous literature, we found a positive impact of the overall po…
Deeds or words? The local influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners’ flows
What kind of region reaps the benefits of a currency union
What is the economic impact of joining a currency union? Is this impact heterogeneous across regions? And how does it change in case of a recession? We answer these questions by investigating the economic impact of joining the euro area for the latecomers, that is, the eastern European countries that adopted the euro after 2002. Differently from previous literature, we use NUTS‐2 regions as units of analysis. This novelty allows us to investigate…
The long-term effects of mass layoffs
This article investigates the long-term reaction of local labor markets (LLMs) to a mass layoff in a manufacturing plant. We adopt a non-parametric generalization of the difference-in-differences estimator expressly developed for time-series cross-sectional data and a new comprehensive dataset. Our results suggest that, on average, a mass layoff abruptly decreases industry employment by 22%; this negative impact is persistent even 9 years later. …
Local inequalities of the Covid-19 crisis
Can regional policies shape migration flows
Our empirical analysis focuses on the effect of regional policies on migration attraction factors in Europe. We employ a regression discontinuity design to assess the causal relationship between the reception of large amounts of public funds and migration flows in the EU-15 regions. In highly-subsidised regions, we find a large increase in the share of foreign citizens from less-developed countries when compared to low-subsidised regions with sim…
Decomposing the employment effects of investment subsidies
I will survive! The impact of place-based policies when public transfers fade out
Are place-based policies capable of taking lagging areas to a higher growth trajectory permanently? We answer this crucial question by investigating what happens when strongly subsidized regions experience a substantial reduction in funding. By analysing an extensive database via the mean balancing approach, we estimate the causal impact of exiting the convergence region status of the European Union regional policy. We find that only regions that…
Local mortality estimates during the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-021-00857-y
How much does state aid mitigate employment losses? Local policy effects at a time of economic crisis
We evaluate the effectiveness of the most extensive experiment of income redistribution, that is, the European Union regional policy, at a time of economic crisis. By exploiting geographical discontinuities in fund eligibility, we analyse comprehensive data on all publicly funded Italian projects at the municipality level. We find a positive impact of localized support to firms with a sizable increase in employment and the number of plants in int…
Endogenous amenities, tourists’ happiness and competitiveness
A key strategy for supporting destination competitiveness is to enhance endogenous amenities, and tourists are the best candidate to evaluate them at the destination. The analysis in this paper uses a comprehensive data set on foreign travellers to investigate their happiness at Italian destinations between 2005 and 2014. Using a theory-dependent approach to model happiness at the destination with respect to endogenous and exogenous amenities, pe…
Are eco‐labels good for the local economy
Industrial policy evaluation in the presence of spillovers
The shortage of studies on spatial spillovers of capital subsidy policies is rather surprising, considering that such policies are usually designed to generate spatial externalities. We propose a new framework that allows positive agglomeration effects to be contrasted with the negative cross-sectional substitution and the crowding-out effect. The global evaluation of the ATT and the spillover parameters shifts the spotlight from the policy effec…
Does R&D Expenditure Boost Economic Growth In Lagging Regions
We assess the impact of the EU Regional Policy on regional economic growth by applying a new evaluation strategy, which integrates mediation analysis with a quasi-experimental framework. Using the R&D expenditure as an indicator of innovation capability, we evaluate how much of the total effect of the EU Regional Policy is due to R&D in the poorest EU regions. Consistently with the previous literature, we found a positive impact of the overall po…
The long-term effects of mass layoffs
This article investigates the long-term reaction of local labor markets (LLMs) to a mass layoff in a manufacturing plant. We adopt a non-parametric generalization of the difference-in-differences estimator expressly developed for time-series cross-sectional data and a new comprehensive dataset. Our results suggest that, on average, a mass layoff abruptly decreases industry employment by 22%; this negative impact is persistent even 9 years later. …
How much does state aid mitigate employment losses? Local policy effects at a time of economic crisis
We evaluate the effectiveness of the most extensive experiment of income redistribution, that is, the European Union regional policy, at a time of economic crisis. By exploiting geographical discontinuities in fund eligibility, we analyse comprehensive data on all publicly funded Italian projects at the municipality level. We find a positive impact of localized support to firms with a sizable increase in employment and the number of plants in int…
Endogenous amenities, tourists’ happiness and competitiveness
A key strategy for supporting destination competitiveness is to enhance endogenous amenities, and tourists are the best candidate to evaluate them at the destination. The analysis in this paper uses a comprehensive data set on foreign travellers to investigate their happiness at Italian destinations between 2005 and 2014. Using a theory-dependent approach to model happiness at the destination with respect to endogenous and exogenous amenities, pe…
I will survive! The impact of place-based policies when public transfers fade out
Are place-based policies capable of taking lagging areas to a higher growth trajectory permanently? We answer this crucial question by investigating what happens when strongly subsidized regions experience a substantial reduction in funding. By analysing an extensive database via the mean balancing approach, we estimate the causal impact of exiting the convergence region status of the European Union regional policy. We find that only regions that…
Local mortality estimates during the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-021-00857-y
Are eco‐labels good for the local economy
Industrial policy evaluation in the presence of spillovers
The shortage of studies on spatial spillovers of capital subsidy policies is rather surprising, considering that such policies are usually designed to generate spatial externalities. We propose a new framework that allows positive agglomeration effects to be contrasted with the negative cross-sectional substitution and the crowding-out effect. The global evaluation of the ATT and the spillover parameters shifts the spotlight from the policy effec…
Are eco‐labels good for the local economy
Endogenous amenities, tourists’ happiness and competitiveness
A key strategy for supporting destination competitiveness is to enhance endogenous amenities, and tourists are the best candidate to evaluate them at the destination. The analysis in this paper uses a comprehensive data set on foreign travellers to investigate their happiness at Italian destinations between 2005 and 2014. Using a theory-dependent approach to model happiness at the destination with respect to endogenous and exogenous amenities, pe…
Local mortality estimates during the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-021-00857-y
How much does state aid mitigate employment losses? Local policy effects at a time of economic crisis
We evaluate the effectiveness of the most extensive experiment of income redistribution, that is, the European Union regional policy, at a time of economic crisis. By exploiting geographical discontinuities in fund eligibility, we analyse comprehensive data on all publicly funded Italian projects at the municipality level. We find a positive impact of localized support to firms with a sizable increase in employment and the number of plants in int…
Local inequalities of the Covid-19 crisis
Can regional policies shape migration flows
Our empirical analysis focuses on the effect of regional policies on migration attraction factors in Europe. We employ a regression discontinuity design to assess the causal relationship between the reception of large amounts of public funds and migration flows in the EU-15 regions. In highly-subsidised regions, we find a large increase in the share of foreign citizens from less-developed countries when compared to low-subsidised regions with sim…
Decomposing the employment effects of investment subsidies
I will survive! The impact of place-based policies when public transfers fade out
Are place-based policies capable of taking lagging areas to a higher growth trajectory permanently? We answer this crucial question by investigating what happens when strongly subsidized regions experience a substantial reduction in funding. By analysing an extensive database via the mean balancing approach, we estimate the causal impact of exiting the convergence region status of the European Union regional policy. We find that only regions that…
Deeds or words? The local influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners’ flows
What kind of region reaps the benefits of a currency union
What is the economic impact of joining a currency union? Is this impact heterogeneous across regions? And how does it change in case of a recession? We answer these questions by investigating the economic impact of joining the euro area for the latecomers, that is, the eastern European countries that adopted the euro after 2002. Differently from previous literature, we use NUTS‐2 regions as units of analysis. This novelty allows us to investigate…
The long-term effects of mass layoffs
This article investigates the long-term reaction of local labor markets (LLMs) to a mass layoff in a manufacturing plant. We adopt a non-parametric generalization of the difference-in-differences estimator expressly developed for time-series cross-sectional data and a new comprehensive dataset. Our results suggest that, on average, a mass layoff abruptly decreases industry employment by 22%; this negative impact is persistent even 9 years later. …
Does R&D Expenditure Boost Economic Growth In Lagging Regions
We assess the impact of the EU Regional Policy on regional economic growth by applying a new evaluation strategy, which integrates mediation analysis with a quasi-experimental framework. Using the R&D expenditure as an indicator of innovation capability, we evaluate how much of the total effect of the EU Regional Policy is due to R&D in the poorest EU regions. Consistently with the previous literature, we found a positive impact of the overall po…
The Bright Side of Breaking Up
Territorial reforms of administrative boundaries primarily aim at pursuing cost and administrative efficiency objectives, but their impact on the political engagement of local communities remains unclear. Moreover, while amalgamations have been widely studied, little is known about the effects of territorial fragmentation. To bridge this gap, we examine a regional reform in Italy's Apulia region, wherein five municipalities voluntarily underwent …
The Municipal Administration Quality Index
On the (Mis)Use of Machine Learning With Panel Data
We provide the first systematic assessment of data leakage issues in the use of machine learning on panel data. Our organising framework clarifies why neglecting the cross‐sectional and longitudinal structure of these data leads to hard‐to‐detect data leakage, inflated out‐of‐sample performance, and an inadvertent overestimation of the real‐world usefulness and applicability of machine learning models. We then offer empirical guidelines for pract…
The Causal Relationship Between Jurisdiction Size and Institutional Quality
While the relationship between jurisdiction size and economic and electoral outcomes has been extensively studied, its causal impact on institutional capacity and quality remains unexplored. Leveraging the mergers of 197 Italian municipalities, we investigate changes in administrative quality using the Municipal Administration Quality Index (MAQI), a novel composite measure of local administrative capacity and quality based on three pillars: bure…
Economics (12 works) · Political science (8 works) · Regional Development and Policy (7 works) · Macroeconomics (6 works) · Regional Economics and Spatial Analysis (6 works) · Business (5 works) · Geography (5 works) · Development economics (4 works) · Economic geography (4 works) · Recession (4 works)