Kevin Grier
Biographic Data
| ID | 4372121 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Kevin Grier |
| GIVEN NAMES | Kevin |
| FAMILY NAME | Grier |
| SIGNATURE | GRIER K |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Oklahoma |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-0700-6662 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 27 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 381 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 27 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1984 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 8 |
The effect of increased women's legislative representation on women's well-being
Uncertain times
We use doubly robust difference‐in‐differences models to estimate the causal effect of successful coups on national incomes. We find that real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) decreases by 10%–12% 5 years after a coup and the effect has not begun to diminish at that point. When we investigate the economic and political mechanisms behind this outcome, we find that our result is mostly driven by a fall in investment and in the rule of law, a…
The consequences of CIA-sponsored regime change in Latin America
Two birds with one stone
Objective This article estimates the causal effect of corruption reform on economic growth across a sample of 122 countries from 1980 to 2015. Methods We first identify countries that experienced large and sustained increases in corruption control, we refer this group as the treatment group. We then utilize two empirical estimation techniques to estimate the causal effect of corruption on economic growth—matching methods and a doubly robust, diff…
Love on the rocks
The causal effects of rule of law & property rights on fiscal capacity
Campaign Contributions and Roll-Call Voting in the U.S. House of Representatives
The question of whether campaign contributions buy roll-call votes is both important and contentious. Although researchers often find positive correlations between the two, it is difficult to conclude that these correlations are causal because interest groups may be simply giving to their supporters rather than attempting to change members’ voting behavior. In this paper we use a pair of votes on antisugar subsidy amendments to investigate the ca…
Breaking up is hard to do
Objective To investigate historical antecedents for the likely effects of Brexit, the “breaking up” of the Commonwealth is considered. In particular, the effects on New Zealand in the period following “Brentry,” or the entry of the UK into the EU, are measured and used to forecast the pattern of impacts the UK may encounter. Methods The technique of Synthetic Control. This quasi‐experimental method takes conscious advantage of features of endogen…
The economic consequences of Hugo Chavez
Political fractionalization and delay in fiscal stabilizations
The impact of E. Coli O157
Elections, exchange rates and reform in Latin America
US presidential elections and real GDP growth, 1961–2004
Only income diverges
Committee Decisions on Monetary Policy
On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico
How Smart Is my Dummy? Time Series Tests for the Influence of Politics
Of necessity, many tests for political influence on policies or outcomes involve the use of dummy variables. However, it is often the case that the hypothesis against which the political dummies are tested is the null hypothesis that the intercept is otherwise constant throughout the sample. This simple null can cause inference problems if there are (nonpolitical) intercept shifts in the data and the political dummies are correlated with these un…
Presidential Party, Incumbency, and the Effects of Economic Fluctuations on House Elections, 1916–1996
The Determinants of Industry Political Activity, 1978-1986
While the allocation of interest group monies to specific politicians has been extensively studied, little is known about the factors that determine of the overall level of political activity across groups. We study total contributions by corporate political action committees at the industry level. We create a large data set on industry political activity, covering 124 industries across five election cycles from 1978 to 1986 and sketch out a simp…
On the (mis)measurement of legislator ideology and shirking
Comparing Interest Group PAC Contributions to House and Senate Incumbents, 1980-1986
Most work on the allocation patterns of campaign contributions by interest groups focuses on the relative productivity of legislators' effort in serving each group. Short time-series and cross-sectional studies of PAC activity have been done for the House of Representatives and the Senate separately, but no study has used (1) longer time series data or (2) made explicit comparisons among interest group (corporations, unions, and trade association…
Committee Assignments, Constituent Preferences, and Campaign Contributions
We model the behavior of a vote‐maximizing legislator in order to predict interest group campaign contributions to incumbent politicians. We show that committee assignments and voter preferences affect the price a legislator requires to produce policies for any interest group. An econometric analysis of actual interest group contributions shows that these groups make significantly larger contributions to legislators on committees with jurisdictio…
Allocation patterns of PAC monies
An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951–1980
Campaign spending and Senate elections, 1978?84
The Determinants of Industry Political Activity, 1978-1986
While the allocation of interest group monies to specific politicians has been extensively studied, little is known about the factors that determine of the overall level of political activity across groups. We study total contributions by corporate political action committees at the industry level. We create a large data set on industry political activity, covering 124 industries across five election cycles from 1978 to 1986 and sketch out a simp…
Comparing Interest Group PAC Contributions to House and Senate Incumbents, 1980-1986
Most work on the allocation patterns of campaign contributions by interest groups focuses on the relative productivity of legislators' effort in serving each group. Short time-series and cross-sectional studies of PAC activity have been done for the House of Representatives and the Senate separately, but no study has used (1) longer time series data or (2) made explicit comparisons among interest group (corporations, unions, and trade association…
On the (mis)measurement of legislator ideology and shirking
On the Existence of a Political Monetary Cycle
This paper examines electoral influence on monetary policy as measured by Ml money growth. I find a significant four-year electoral cycle in money growth even when controlling for the influence of interest rates, income, and budget deficits. Further, the residual electoral cycle produces the income and inflation movements associated with the political business cycle when it is used in simulations of simple reduced form macro models. The paper con…
Campaign spending and Senate elections, 1978?84
US presidential elections and real GDP growth, 1961–2004
Allocation patterns of PAC monies
Presidential Party, Incumbency, and the Effects of Economic Fluctuations on House Elections, 1916–1996
Two birds with one stone
Objective This article estimates the causal effect of corruption reform on economic growth across a sample of 122 countries from 1980 to 2015. Methods We first identify countries that experienced large and sustained increases in corruption control, we refer this group as the treatment group. We then utilize two empirical estimation techniques to estimate the causal effect of corruption on economic growth—matching methods and a doubly robust, diff…
Campaign Contributions and Roll-Call Voting in the U.S. House of Representatives
The question of whether campaign contributions buy roll-call votes is both important and contentious. Although researchers often find positive correlations between the two, it is difficult to conclude that these correlations are causal because interest groups may be simply giving to their supporters rather than attempting to change members’ voting behavior. In this paper we use a pair of votes on antisugar subsidy amendments to investigate the ca…
Uncertain times
We use doubly robust difference‐in‐differences models to estimate the causal effect of successful coups on national incomes. We find that real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) decreases by 10%–12% 5 years after a coup and the effect has not begun to diminish at that point. When we investigate the economic and political mechanisms behind this outcome, we find that our result is mostly driven by a fall in investment and in the rule of law, a…
On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico
How Smart Is my Dummy? Time Series Tests for the Influence of Politics
Of necessity, many tests for political influence on policies or outcomes involve the use of dummy variables. However, it is often the case that the hypothesis against which the political dummies are tested is the null hypothesis that the intercept is otherwise constant throughout the sample. This simple null can cause inference problems if there are (nonpolitical) intercept shifts in the data and the political dummies are correlated with these un…
Determinants of local school spending
Political fractionalization and delay in fiscal stabilizations
Elections, exchange rates and reform in Latin America
Only income diverges
Determinants of local school spending
An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951–1980
Campaign spending and Senate elections, 1978?84
On the Existence of a Political Monetary Cycle
This paper examines electoral influence on monetary policy as measured by Ml money growth. I find a significant four-year electoral cycle in money growth even when controlling for the influence of interest rates, income, and budget deficits. Further, the residual electoral cycle produces the income and inflation movements associated with the political business cycle when it is used in simulations of simple reduced form macro models. The paper con…
Allocation patterns of PAC monies
Committee Assignments, Constituent Preferences, and Campaign Contributions
We model the behavior of a vote‐maximizing legislator in order to predict interest group campaign contributions to incumbent politicians. We show that committee assignments and voter preferences affect the price a legislator requires to produce policies for any interest group. An econometric analysis of actual interest group contributions shows that these groups make significantly larger contributions to legislators on committees with jurisdictio…
On the (mis)measurement of legislator ideology and shirking
Comparing Interest Group PAC Contributions to House and Senate Incumbents, 1980-1986
Most work on the allocation patterns of campaign contributions by interest groups focuses on the relative productivity of legislators' effort in serving each group. Short time-series and cross-sectional studies of PAC activity have been done for the House of Representatives and the Senate separately, but no study has used (1) longer time series data or (2) made explicit comparisons among interest group (corporations, unions, and trade association…
The Determinants of Industry Political Activity, 1978-1986
While the allocation of interest group monies to specific politicians has been extensively studied, little is known about the factors that determine of the overall level of political activity across groups. We study total contributions by corporate political action committees at the industry level. We create a large data set on industry political activity, covering 124 industries across five election cycles from 1978 to 1986 and sketch out a simp…
Presidential Party, Incumbency, and the Effects of Economic Fluctuations on House Elections, 1916–1996
On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico
How Smart Is my Dummy? Time Series Tests for the Influence of Politics
Of necessity, many tests for political influence on policies or outcomes involve the use of dummy variables. However, it is often the case that the hypothesis against which the political dummies are tested is the null hypothesis that the intercept is otherwise constant throughout the sample. This simple null can cause inference problems if there are (nonpolitical) intercept shifts in the data and the political dummies are correlated with these un…
Only income diverges
Committee Decisions on Monetary Policy
US presidential elections and real GDP growth, 1961–2004
Elections, exchange rates and reform in Latin America
The impact of E. Coli O157
Political fractionalization and delay in fiscal stabilizations
The economic consequences of Hugo Chavez
Breaking up is hard to do
Objective To investigate historical antecedents for the likely effects of Brexit, the “breaking up” of the Commonwealth is considered. In particular, the effects on New Zealand in the period following “Brentry,” or the entry of the UK into the EU, are measured and used to forecast the pattern of impacts the UK may encounter. Methods The technique of Synthetic Control. This quasi‐experimental method takes conscious advantage of features of endogen…
Love on the rocks
The causal effects of rule of law & property rights on fiscal capacity
Campaign Contributions and Roll-Call Voting in the U.S. House of Representatives
The question of whether campaign contributions buy roll-call votes is both important and contentious. Although researchers often find positive correlations between the two, it is difficult to conclude that these correlations are causal because interest groups may be simply giving to their supporters rather than attempting to change members’ voting behavior. In this paper we use a pair of votes on antisugar subsidy amendments to investigate the ca…
The consequences of CIA-sponsored regime change in Latin America
Two birds with one stone
Objective This article estimates the causal effect of corruption reform on economic growth across a sample of 122 countries from 1980 to 2015. Methods We first identify countries that experienced large and sustained increases in corruption control, we refer this group as the treatment group. We then utilize two empirical estimation techniques to estimate the causal effect of corruption on economic growth—matching methods and a doubly robust, diff…
Economics (26 works) · Political science (24 works) · Politics (16 works) · Law (15 works) · Macroeconomics (13 works) · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy (10 works) · Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth (9 works) · Law (9 works) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (9 works) · Development economics (8 works)