Caleb Lucas
Biographic Data
| ID | 4380595 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Caleb Lucas |
| GIVEN NAMES | Caleb |
| FAMILY NAME | Lucas |
| SIGNATURE | LUCAS C |
| AFFILIATIONS | RAND Corporation |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-0049-4680 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 9 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 13 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 9 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2019 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 2 |
Drivers of Congressional Behavior
The US Congress is the world’s most studied legislature, but data on its many facets often remains isolated. This note introduces an updated version of CongressData, a database of over 1300 member-year and district-year level variables between 1789 and 2024 that compiles district demographics and economic variables, legislator characteristics, lawmaking behavior, and committee membership. We also introduce an R package that makes it easy to subse…
Mapping the Waves of Terrorism Using Computational Text Analysis
How to identify and address the real-world risks of large language models
Mere Puffery or Convincing Claims? Rebel News and Civilian Perceptions of the Balance of Power
How does rebel news affect the way civilians perceive the balance of power during conflict? While media campaigns are a common tactic during conflict for both insurgents and governments, there is very little empirical research that explores their effect on civilians. I argue that these campaigns play an important role in the construction of a rebel group’s reputation during conflict and the perception of their organization among non-combatants. T…
Winning or Losing Hearts and Minds? Evidence from Afghanistan on How Leadership Decapitation Affects Civilian Perceptions of Government Efficacy
From Anti-Muslim to Anti-Jewish
The Operational Risks of AI in Large-Scale Biological Attacks
In this report, the authors address the emerging issue of identifying and mitigating the risks posed by the misuse of artificial intelligence (AI)—specifically, large language models—in the context of biological attacks and present preliminary findings of their research. They find that while AI can generate concerning text, the operational impact is a subject for future research
Not Too Distant
Grievance and opportunity theories dominate research on the causes of civil war. However, theoretical and empirical problems limit their ability to explain variation in conflict onset. We argue that these problems partly stem from treating them as largely independent explanations. We integrate grievance and opportunity into a unified theory and argue that they are complements that jointly predict conflict. We apply insights from the interstate wa…
Once more, with feeling
We collect an original corpus of official documents released by Hezbollah and use text analysis to create a measure of their relationships with other non-state groups. Despite recent research that demonstrates these types of relationships affect the length and severity of conflict, data limitations hinder efforts by researchers to capture important variation in them over time. Our approach uses fine-grained text data to capture dynamic trends in …
From Anti-Muslim to Anti-Jewish
Not Too Distant
Grievance and opportunity theories dominate research on the causes of civil war. However, theoretical and empirical problems limit their ability to explain variation in conflict onset. We argue that these problems partly stem from treating them as largely independent explanations. We integrate grievance and opportunity into a unified theory and argue that they are complements that jointly predict conflict. We apply insights from the interstate wa…
Once more, with feeling
We collect an original corpus of official documents released by Hezbollah and use text analysis to create a measure of their relationships with other non-state groups. Despite recent research that demonstrates these types of relationships affect the length and severity of conflict, data limitations hinder efforts by researchers to capture important variation in them over time. Our approach uses fine-grained text data to capture dynamic trends in …
Winning or Losing Hearts and Minds? Evidence from Afghanistan on How Leadership Decapitation Affects Civilian Perceptions of Government Efficacy
Once more, with feeling
We collect an original corpus of official documents released by Hezbollah and use text analysis to create a measure of their relationships with other non-state groups. Despite recent research that demonstrates these types of relationships affect the length and severity of conflict, data limitations hinder efforts by researchers to capture important variation in them over time. Our approach uses fine-grained text data to capture dynamic trends in …
Not Too Distant
Grievance and opportunity theories dominate research on the causes of civil war. However, theoretical and empirical problems limit their ability to explain variation in conflict onset. We argue that these problems partly stem from treating them as largely independent explanations. We integrate grievance and opportunity into a unified theory and argue that they are complements that jointly predict conflict. We apply insights from the interstate wa…
The Operational Risks of AI in Large-Scale Biological Attacks
In this report, the authors address the emerging issue of identifying and mitigating the risks posed by the misuse of artificial intelligence (AI)—specifically, large language models—in the context of biological attacks and present preliminary findings of their research. They find that while AI can generate concerning text, the operational impact is a subject for future research
Mere Puffery or Convincing Claims? Rebel News and Civilian Perceptions of the Balance of Power
How does rebel news affect the way civilians perceive the balance of power during conflict? While media campaigns are a common tactic during conflict for both insurgents and governments, there is very little empirical research that explores their effect on civilians. I argue that these campaigns play an important role in the construction of a rebel group’s reputation during conflict and the perception of their organization among non-combatants. T…
Winning or Losing Hearts and Minds? Evidence from Afghanistan on How Leadership Decapitation Affects Civilian Perceptions of Government Efficacy
From Anti-Muslim to Anti-Jewish
How to identify and address the real-world risks of large language models
Drivers of Congressional Behavior
The US Congress is the world’s most studied legislature, but data on its many facets often remains isolated. This note introduces an updated version of CongressData, a database of over 1300 member-year and district-year level variables between 1789 and 2024 that compiles district demographics and economic variables, legislator characteristics, lawmaking behavior, and committee membership. We also introduce an R package that makes it easy to subse…
Mapping the Waves of Terrorism Using Computational Text Analysis
Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence (6 works) · Political science (5 works) · Law (4 works) · Law (4 works) · Political Conflict and Governance (4 works) · Computer Science (3 works) · Data science (3 works) · Psychology (3 works) · Affect (linguistics (2 works) · Artificial Intelligence (2 works)