Philip Tetlock
Biographic Data
| ID | 4382998 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Philip Tetlock |
| GIVEN NAMES | Philip |
| FAMILY NAME | Tetlock |
| SIGNATURE | TETLOCK P |
| AFFILIATIONS | Department of Psychology Yale University |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 5 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 146 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 5 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1977 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2020 |
| H-INDEX | 2 |
Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives
What Makes Foreign Policy Teams Tick: Explaining Variation in Group Performance at Geopolitical Forecasting
When do groups—be they countries, administrations, or other organizations—more or less accurately understand the world around them and assess political choices? Some argue that group decision-making processes often fail due to biases induced by groupthink. Others argue that groups, by aggregating knowledge, are better at analyzing the foreign policy world. To advance knowledge about the intersection of politics and group decision making, this pap…
Accountability
Accountability refers to the implicit or explicit expectation that one may be called on to justify one's beliefs, feelings, or actions to others.
Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives
Policy toward Iran1497Counterfactuals about War and Its Absence1718Using Counterfactuals in Historical Analysis: Theories of Revolution1879Counterfactuals and International Affairs: Some Insights from Game Theory21110Off-the-Path Behavior: A Game-Theoretic Approach to Counterfactuals and Its Implications for Political and Historical Analysis23011Rerunning History: Counterfactual Simulation in World Politics24712Counterfactuals, Past and Future268…
Integrative Complexity of Communications in International Crises
Diplomatic communications during international crises that resulted in war (1914 and 1950) and crises that were settled peacefully (1911, 1948, 1962) were scored for integrative complexity. This is a dimension of information processing characterized at one pole by simple responses, gross distinctions, rigidity, and restricted information usage, and at the other by complexity, fine distinctions, flexibility, and extensive information search and us…
Integrative Complexity of Communications in International Crises
Diplomatic communications during international crises that resulted in war (1914 and 1950) and crises that were settled peacefully (1911, 1948, 1962) were scored for integrative complexity. This is a dimension of information processing characterized at one pole by simple responses, gross distinctions, rigidity, and restricted information usage, and at the other by complexity, fine distinctions, flexibility, and extensive information search and us…
What Makes Foreign Policy Teams Tick: Explaining Variation in Group Performance at Geopolitical Forecasting
When do groups—be they countries, administrations, or other organizations—more or less accurately understand the world around them and assess political choices? Some argue that group decision-making processes often fail due to biases induced by groupthink. Others argue that groups, by aggregating knowledge, are better at analyzing the foreign policy world. To advance knowledge about the intersection of politics and group decision making, this pap…
Integrative Complexity of Communications in International Crises
Diplomatic communications during international crises that resulted in war (1914 and 1950) and crises that were settled peacefully (1911, 1948, 1962) were scored for integrative complexity. This is a dimension of information processing characterized at one pole by simple responses, gross distinctions, rigidity, and restricted information usage, and at the other by complexity, fine distinctions, flexibility, and extensive information search and us…
Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives
Policy toward Iran1497Counterfactuals about War and Its Absence1718Using Counterfactuals in Historical Analysis: Theories of Revolution1879Counterfactuals and International Affairs: Some Insights from Game Theory21110Off-the-Path Behavior: A Game-Theoretic Approach to Counterfactuals and Its Implications for Political and Historical Analysis23011Rerunning History: Counterfactual Simulation in World Politics24712Counterfactuals, Past and Future268…
Accountability
Accountability refers to the implicit or explicit expectation that one may be called on to justify one's beliefs, feelings, or actions to others.
What Makes Foreign Policy Teams Tick: Explaining Variation in Group Performance at Geopolitical Forecasting
When do groups—be they countries, administrations, or other organizations—more or less accurately understand the world around them and assess political choices? Some argue that group decision-making processes often fail due to biases induced by groupthink. Others argue that groups, by aggregating knowledge, are better at analyzing the foreign policy world. To advance knowledge about the intersection of politics and group decision making, this pap…
Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives
Political science (5 works) · Economics (4 works) · Law (4 works) · Politics (4 works) · Psychology (4 works) · Social Psychology (3 works) · Cognitive psychology (2 works) · Counterfactual thinking (2 works) · Epistemology (2 works) · Management (2 works)