Daniel Irwin
Biographic Data
| ID | 4386576 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Daniel Irwin |
| GIVEN NAMES | Daniel |
| FAMILY NAME | Irwin |
| SIGNATURE | IRWIN D |
| AFFILIATIONS | Southern Illinois University |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 11 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 26 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 11 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1971 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2024 |
| H-INDEX | 2 |
Beyond Bias Minimization: Improving Intelligence with Optimization and Human Augmentation
For the last half-century, the U.S. and Allied Intelligence Community (IC) has sought to minimize the ostensibly detrimental effects of cognitive biases on intelligence practice. The dominant approach has been to develop structured analytic techniques (SATs), teach them to analysts in brief training sessions, provide the means to use SATs on the job, and hope they work. The SAT approach, however, suffers from severe conceptual problems and a pauc…
Legislative Pensions and Re‐election Seeking: Evidence from Canadian Legislatures
We use data from Canadian legislatures to examine how legislative pension rules affect the propensity of incumbents to seek re‐election. We predict that legislators with defined‐benefits pensions are more likely to seek re‐election than legislators without pensions. Once the legislator is vested (i.e., qualified) in the pension, however, this incentive disappears; indeed, pensions that accrue value quickly and can be collected at an early age, in…
Policy for promoting analytic rigor in intelligence: Professionals’ views and their psychological correlates
Following significant intelligence failures, the United States intelligence community adopted Intelligence Community Directive 203 (ICD203) to promote analytic rigor. We developed two psychometric scales to examine how strongly intelligence professionals (N = 108) endorsed the analytic standards comprising ICD203 and how strongly they believed their organizations complied with these standards. All ICD203 facets were highly endorsed and clustered …
American and Chinese Public Opinion in an Era of Great Power Competition: Ingroup Bias and Threat Perceptions
As the US-China great power competition intensifies, public opinion polling may help gauge internal drivers of foreign policy decision-making. Using Pew Research Center data, the authors analyzed how American and Chinese respondents viewed their own and each other's countries between 2008–2016. They further examined how American attitudes towards China varied by political affiliation between 2008–2019. Both Americans and the Chinese displayed ing…
Meta‐informational cue inconsistency and judgment of information accuracy: Spotlight on intelligence analysis
Meta‐information is information about information that can be used as cues to guide judgments and decisions. Three types of meta‐information that are routinely used in intelligence analysis are source reliability, information credibility, and classification level. The first two cues are intended to speak to information quality (in particular, the probability that the information is accurate), and classification level is intended to describe the i…
Uncertainty, Intelligence, and National Security Decisionmaking
Intelligence analysis and national security decision-making are pervaded by uncertainty.The most consequential decisions that leaders make, such as whether to go to war, are mired in uncertainties not only reflecting what is unknown but also what is unknowable, such as the intentions of others who may not have made up their own minds. 1 Those uncertainties not only make decisions about how to resolve international conflicts more difficult, they c…
Arithmetic computation with probability words and numbers
Probability information is regularly communicated to experts who must fuse multiple estimates to support decision making. Such information is often communicated verbally (e.g., “likely”) rather than with precise numeric (point) values (e.g., “.75”), yet people are not taught to perform arithmetic on verbal probabilities. We hypothesized that the accuracy and logical coherence of averaging and multiplying probabilities will be poorer when individu…
Coleman-Hilton Scholarships (University of Sydney): Livy and Polybius: intertextuality and authority
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Putting Us on the Map: Remote Sensing Investigation of the Ancient Maya Landscape
Landscape Archaeology: Remote-sensing investigation of the ancient Maya in the Peten rainforest of northern Guatemala
Conducting field research in the dense forests of the Peten, northern Guatemala, is as difficult today as it was for A. V. Kidder 70 years ago. However, through the use of airborne and satellite imagery we are improving our ability to investigate ancient Maya settlement, subsistence, and landscape modification in this dense forest region. Today the area is threatened by encroaching settlement and deforestation. However, it was in this region that…
Black and White Maps From Color
This article describes a technique for transforming maps rendered in colour to acceptable black and white copy for publication. Area symbols can be more easily utilized for cartographic purposes if they are rendered in pigments by various methods, rather than through the use of pre-printed commercial screens. Savings in cost and time, greater reduction possibilities and more graphic original maps, can be obtained through the described method. Dis…
Landscape Archaeology: Remote-sensing investigation of the ancient Maya in the Peten rainforest of northern Guatemala
Conducting field research in the dense forests of the Peten, northern Guatemala, is as difficult today as it was for A. V. Kidder 70 years ago. However, through the use of airborne and satellite imagery we are improving our ability to investigate ancient Maya settlement, subsistence, and landscape modification in this dense forest region. Today the area is threatened by encroaching settlement and deforestation. However, it was in this region that…
American and Chinese Public Opinion in an Era of Great Power Competition: Ingroup Bias and Threat Perceptions
As the US-China great power competition intensifies, public opinion polling may help gauge internal drivers of foreign policy decision-making. Using Pew Research Center data, the authors analyzed how American and Chinese respondents viewed their own and each other's countries between 2008–2016. They further examined how American attitudes towards China varied by political affiliation between 2008–2019. Both Americans and the Chinese displayed ing…
Arithmetic computation with probability words and numbers
Probability information is regularly communicated to experts who must fuse multiple estimates to support decision making. Such information is often communicated verbally (e.g., “likely”) rather than with precise numeric (point) values (e.g., “.75”), yet people are not taught to perform arithmetic on verbal probabilities. We hypothesized that the accuracy and logical coherence of averaging and multiplying probabilities will be poorer when individu…
Meta‐informational cue inconsistency and judgment of information accuracy: Spotlight on intelligence analysis
Meta‐information is information about information that can be used as cues to guide judgments and decisions. Three types of meta‐information that are routinely used in intelligence analysis are source reliability, information credibility, and classification level. The first two cues are intended to speak to information quality (in particular, the probability that the information is accurate), and classification level is intended to describe the i…
Black and White Maps From Color
This article describes a technique for transforming maps rendered in colour to acceptable black and white copy for publication. Area symbols can be more easily utilized for cartographic purposes if they are rendered in pigments by various methods, rather than through the use of pre-printed commercial screens. Savings in cost and time, greater reduction possibilities and more graphic original maps, can be obtained through the described method. Dis…
Landscape Archaeology: Remote-sensing investigation of the ancient Maya in the Peten rainforest of northern Guatemala
Conducting field research in the dense forests of the Peten, northern Guatemala, is as difficult today as it was for A. V. Kidder 70 years ago. However, through the use of airborne and satellite imagery we are improving our ability to investigate ancient Maya settlement, subsistence, and landscape modification in this dense forest region. Today the area is threatened by encroaching settlement and deforestation. However, it was in this region that…
Putting Us on the Map: Remote Sensing Investigation of the Ancient Maya Landscape
Coleman-Hilton Scholarships (University of Sydney): Livy and Polybius: intertextuality and authority
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Uncertainty, Intelligence, and National Security Decisionmaking
Intelligence analysis and national security decision-making are pervaded by uncertainty.The most consequential decisions that leaders make, such as whether to go to war, are mired in uncertainties not only reflecting what is unknown but also what is unknowable, such as the intentions of others who may not have made up their own minds. 1 Those uncertainties not only make decisions about how to resolve international conflicts more difficult, they c…
Arithmetic computation with probability words and numbers
Probability information is regularly communicated to experts who must fuse multiple estimates to support decision making. Such information is often communicated verbally (e.g., “likely”) rather than with precise numeric (point) values (e.g., “.75”), yet people are not taught to perform arithmetic on verbal probabilities. We hypothesized that the accuracy and logical coherence of averaging and multiplying probabilities will be poorer when individu…
Policy for promoting analytic rigor in intelligence: Professionals’ views and their psychological correlates
Following significant intelligence failures, the United States intelligence community adopted Intelligence Community Directive 203 (ICD203) to promote analytic rigor. We developed two psychometric scales to examine how strongly intelligence professionals (N = 108) endorsed the analytic standards comprising ICD203 and how strongly they believed their organizations complied with these standards. All ICD203 facets were highly endorsed and clustered …
American and Chinese Public Opinion in an Era of Great Power Competition: Ingroup Bias and Threat Perceptions
As the US-China great power competition intensifies, public opinion polling may help gauge internal drivers of foreign policy decision-making. Using Pew Research Center data, the authors analyzed how American and Chinese respondents viewed their own and each other's countries between 2008–2016. They further examined how American attitudes towards China varied by political affiliation between 2008–2019. Both Americans and the Chinese displayed ing…
Meta‐informational cue inconsistency and judgment of information accuracy: Spotlight on intelligence analysis
Meta‐information is information about information that can be used as cues to guide judgments and decisions. Three types of meta‐information that are routinely used in intelligence analysis are source reliability, information credibility, and classification level. The first two cues are intended to speak to information quality (in particular, the probability that the information is accurate), and classification level is intended to describe the i…
Legislative Pensions and Re‐election Seeking: Evidence from Canadian Legislatures
We use data from Canadian legislatures to examine how legislative pension rules affect the propensity of incumbents to seek re‐election. We predict that legislators with defined‐benefits pensions are more likely to seek re‐election than legislators without pensions. Once the legislator is vested (i.e., qualified) in the pension, however, this incentive disappears; indeed, pensions that accrue value quickly and can be collected at an early age, in…
Beyond Bias Minimization: Improving Intelligence with Optimization and Human Augmentation
For the last half-century, the U.S. and Allied Intelligence Community (IC) has sought to minimize the ostensibly detrimental effects of cognitive biases on intelligence practice. The dominant approach has been to develop structured analytic techniques (SATs), teach them to analysts in brief training sessions, provide the means to use SATs on the job, and hope they work. The SAT approach, however, suffers from severe conceptual problems and a pauc…
Computer Science (5 works) · Political science (4 works) · Psychology (4 works) · Geography (3 works) · Law (3 works) · Social Psychology (3 works) · Amazonian Archaeology and Ethnohistory (2 works) · Archaeology (2 works) · Archaeology and ancient environmental studies (2 works) · Art (2 works)