Eric R Stone
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 4436718 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Eric R Stone |
| NOMBRES | Eric R |
| APELLIDO | Stone |
| FIRMA | STONE E R |
| AFILIACIONES | Wake Forest University |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-1126-1391 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 20 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 50 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 20 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 1994 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 3 |
Communicating Probabilities of Cervical Cancer Screening Results with Icon Arrays or Tree Diagrams
Simple graphical displays such as icon arrays and tree diagrams have been proposed for communicating health risks and supporting informed decisions. The UK's National Health Service (NHS) uses tree diagrams to communicate the chances of different cervical cancer screening results, but their effectiveness has not been compared to icon arrays. We conducted a well-powered longitudinal experiment involving 3,100 UK women eligible for cervical screeni…
Effects of Descriptive Information on Mental Representations of Probability and Future Behavior in the Context of Personal Experience
It is increasingly recognized that new information is filtered through the lens of prior experience. Research has shown descriptive probability information (“description”) often does not impact decisions for people who have previously observed a sample of outcomes related to the choice (“experience”). However, the effect of description on mental representations of risk probability in the presence of experience has rarely been examined. In two exp…
Psychological and Behavioral Consequences of Confidence in Knowledge
A cursory read of the popular press and the JDM research field suggest that they have very different beliefs regarding the consequences of confidence. And these beliefs have important consequences themselves. For individuals, how one views the consequences of confidence (and whether they are positive or negative) likely influences the extent to which one pursues the development of confidence and how one interprets confidence in others. For JDM re…
Influencing Confidence
This paper examines approaches for influencing people's confidence in their knowledge without influencing knowledge. Three studies examined the relative effectiveness of training and false feedback approaches. Participants chose which of two IKEA products they thought was more expensive and indicated their confidence in that judgment for 50 product pairs. In Study 1, participants took part in one of five conditions designed to manipulate their co…
Automated calibration training for forecasters
In two studies, we investigated the effectiveness of an automated form of calibration training via individualized feedback as a means to improve calibration in forecasts. In Experiment 1, this training procedure was tested in a realistic forecasting situation, namely, predicting the outcome of baseball games. Experiment 2 was similar but used a more controlled forecasting task, predicting whether competitors would bust in a modified version of bl…
Salience Versus Proportional Reasoning
Two experiments examined predictions from two separate explanations for previously observed display effects for communicating low‐probability risks: foreground:background salience and proportional reasoning. According to foreground:background salience, people's risk perceptions are based on the relative salience of the foreground (number of people harmed) versus the background (number of people at risk), such that calling attention to the backgro…
Distinguishing the Ratio Bias from Unsystematic Error
People often perceive the occurrence of events to be less likely when the likelihood of the event is expressed in ratios consisting of smaller numbers versus larger numbers, an effect known as the ratio bias. This work presents a theoretical framework for the conditions that need to be met for the ratio bias to occur. In doing so, we contrast effects on the ratio bias to those on unsystematic error, which have often been confounded in previous re…
The effect of communication design and recipients’ numeracy on responses to UXO risk
Risk communications aim to affect recipients’ understanding of specific risks, their trust and liking of the materials, affective responses, and associated behaviors. We developed communications about the number of construction workers expected to get hurt if building were permitted at the former Fort Ord weapons training site in California, despite its contamination with unexploded ordnance (UXO). We created eight versions, which presented text …
Identifying the Effects of Unjustified Confidence versus Overconfidence
One of the most common findings in behavioral decision research is that people have unrealistic beliefs about how much they know. However, demonstrating that misplaced confidence exists does not necessarily mean that there are costs to it. This paper contrasts two approaches toward answering whether misplaced confidence is good or bad, which we have labeled the overconfidence and unjustified confidence approach. We first consider conceptual and a…
The ‘Typhoon Eye Effect’
This study examined the effect of the SARS crisis on the level of distress in people both in and around epidemic areas of China during the time of the crisis. We designed a questionnaire to measure personality factors, beliefs regarding SARS, behavioral responses to SARS, and distress levels. The level of exposure to SARS was not a primary determinant of experienced anxiety; indeed, nearness to the center of the epidemic was negatively related to…
Leader‐driven distortion of probability and payoff information affects choices between risky prospects
Research indicating that decision makers often distort new information to favor nascent preferences has focused primarily on riskless choice rather than risky choice. In addition, the critical assumption that information distortion mediates the link between the initially preferred alternative and the final choice has not been tested in a compelling manner. In an experiment designed to fill these gaps, participants made six choices involving pairs…
Demonstrating and eliminating the aggregation effect in physical skill tasks
Confidence judgments can be elicited in multiple ways. One of these procedures is to provide confidence judgments regarding each of a number of cases (individual judgments). A second procedure is to provide confidence judgments about a set of items (an aggregate judgment). Much research has demonstrated an aggregation effect—that individual judgments are more confident than aggregate judgments—within the cognitive knowledge domain. However, this …
To thy own self be true
This study utilized Extended MSE Analysis to investigate the effects of two types of cognitive feedback on judgmental accuracy. Participants judged the income levels of respondents to the General Social Survey in both dilution and non-dilution scenarios, received feedback, and then repeated those judgments. Task information feedback produced improvements in judgmental accuracy, and this improvement occurred primarily from a reduction in the stand…
The role of self-esteem and anxiety in decision making for self versus others in relationships
Previous research has documented a tendency for people to make more risk-seeking decisions for others than for themselves in relationship scenarios. Two experiments investigated whether this self–other difference is moderated by participants' self-esteem and anxiety levels. In Experiment 1, lower self-esteem and higher anxiety levels were associated with more risk-averse choices for personal decisions but not for decisions for others. Therefore, …
The social implications of planning
The Impact of Acuity on Performance of Four Clinical Measures of Contrast Sensitivity in Alzheimer's Disease
Investigations of contrast sensitivity losses in Alzheimer's disease (AD) have yielded mixed findings, with some investigators reporting deficits and others not. Potential reasons for these discrepancies include differences between samples and assessments utilized and the failure of some investigators to account for acuity differences between groups. To investigate these issues, we administered four clinical contrast sensitivity assessments to th…
Intuitive evaluation of likelihood judgment producers
This research tests the hypothesis of Yates et al. (1996) that people prefer judgment producers who make extreme confidence judgments. In each of three experiments, college students evaluated two fictional financial advisors who judged the likelihood that each of several stocks would increase in value. One of the advisors (the moderate advisor) was reasonably well calibrated and the other (the extreme advisor) was overconfident. In all three expe…
Separating the Noise from the Noise
Controlling for the confounding influence of physical disturbance, it was possible to test the hypothesis that ambient noise alone would play a role in structuring bird communities in riparian habitats in Boulder, Colorado, USA. Point counts of birds were conducted in open space/minimally disturbed, residential, commercial and industrial neighborhoods. Within the same disturbance parameters and land use, species richness and PIF scores (a weighte…
Translocation Effects on the Behavior of Black-Tailed Prairie Dogs (Cynomys Ludovicianus)
We examined the effects of translocation on Black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) anti-predator behavior by recording response distances and response times to a human intruder in three colonies containing native, translocated, and combined native and translocated prairie dogs. The translocated prairie dogs barked alarms and concealed themselves at significantly greater intruder distances than mixed or native colonies. However, individua…
The Psychology of Windfall Gains
Intuitive evaluation of likelihood judgment producers
This research tests the hypothesis of Yates et al. (1996) that people prefer judgment producers who make extreme confidence judgments. In each of three experiments, college students evaluated two fictional financial advisors who judged the likelihood that each of several stocks would increase in value. One of the advisors (the moderate advisor) was reasonably well calibrated and the other (the extreme advisor) was overconfident. In all three expe…
Identifying the Effects of Unjustified Confidence versus Overconfidence
One of the most common findings in behavioral decision research is that people have unrealistic beliefs about how much they know. However, demonstrating that misplaced confidence exists does not necessarily mean that there are costs to it. This paper contrasts two approaches toward answering whether misplaced confidence is good or bad, which we have labeled the overconfidence and unjustified confidence approach. We first consider conceptual and a…
The role of self-esteem and anxiety in decision making for self versus others in relationships
Previous research has documented a tendency for people to make more risk-seeking decisions for others than for themselves in relationship scenarios. Two experiments investigated whether this self–other difference is moderated by participants' self-esteem and anxiety levels. In Experiment 1, lower self-esteem and higher anxiety levels were associated with more risk-averse choices for personal decisions but not for decisions for others. Therefore, …
Distinguishing the Ratio Bias from Unsystematic Error
People often perceive the occurrence of events to be less likely when the likelihood of the event is expressed in ratios consisting of smaller numbers versus larger numbers, an effect known as the ratio bias. This work presents a theoretical framework for the conditions that need to be met for the ratio bias to occur. In doing so, we contrast effects on the ratio bias to those on unsystematic error, which have often been confounded in previous re…
Demonstrating and eliminating the aggregation effect in physical skill tasks
Confidence judgments can be elicited in multiple ways. One of these procedures is to provide confidence judgments regarding each of a number of cases (individual judgments). A second procedure is to provide confidence judgments about a set of items (an aggregate judgment). Much research has demonstrated an aggregation effect—that individual judgments are more confident than aggregate judgments—within the cognitive knowledge domain. However, this …
The Impact of Acuity on Performance of Four Clinical Measures of Contrast Sensitivity in Alzheimer's Disease
Investigations of contrast sensitivity losses in Alzheimer's disease (AD) have yielded mixed findings, with some investigators reporting deficits and others not. Potential reasons for these discrepancies include differences between samples and assessments utilized and the failure of some investigators to account for acuity differences between groups. To investigate these issues, we administered four clinical contrast sensitivity assessments to th…
Separating the Noise from the Noise
Controlling for the confounding influence of physical disturbance, it was possible to test the hypothesis that ambient noise alone would play a role in structuring bird communities in riparian habitats in Boulder, Colorado, USA. Point counts of birds were conducted in open space/minimally disturbed, residential, commercial and industrial neighborhoods. Within the same disturbance parameters and land use, species richness and PIF scores (a weighte…
Automated calibration training for forecasters
In two studies, we investigated the effectiveness of an automated form of calibration training via individualized feedback as a means to improve calibration in forecasts. In Experiment 1, this training procedure was tested in a realistic forecasting situation, namely, predicting the outcome of baseball games. Experiment 2 was similar but used a more controlled forecasting task, predicting whether competitors would bust in a modified version of bl…
Salience Versus Proportional Reasoning
Two experiments examined predictions from two separate explanations for previously observed display effects for communicating low‐probability risks: foreground:background salience and proportional reasoning. According to foreground:background salience, people's risk perceptions are based on the relative salience of the foreground (number of people harmed) versus the background (number of people at risk), such that calling attention to the backgro…
The effect of communication design and recipients’ numeracy on responses to UXO risk
Risk communications aim to affect recipients’ understanding of specific risks, their trust and liking of the materials, affective responses, and associated behaviors. We developed communications about the number of construction workers expected to get hurt if building were permitted at the former Fort Ord weapons training site in California, despite its contamination with unexploded ordnance (UXO). We created eight versions, which presented text …
The ‘Typhoon Eye Effect’
This study examined the effect of the SARS crisis on the level of distress in people both in and around epidemic areas of China during the time of the crisis. We designed a questionnaire to measure personality factors, beliefs regarding SARS, behavioral responses to SARS, and distress levels. The level of exposure to SARS was not a primary determinant of experienced anxiety; indeed, nearness to the center of the epidemic was negatively related to…
Leader‐driven distortion of probability and payoff information affects choices between risky prospects
Research indicating that decision makers often distort new information to favor nascent preferences has focused primarily on riskless choice rather than risky choice. In addition, the critical assumption that information distortion mediates the link between the initially preferred alternative and the final choice has not been tested in a compelling manner. In an experiment designed to fill these gaps, participants made six choices involving pairs…
The social implications of planning
Translocation Effects on the Behavior of Black-Tailed Prairie Dogs (Cynomys Ludovicianus)
We examined the effects of translocation on Black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) anti-predator behavior by recording response distances and response times to a human intruder in three colonies containing native, translocated, and combined native and translocated prairie dogs. The translocated prairie dogs barked alarms and concealed themselves at significantly greater intruder distances than mixed or native colonies. However, individua…
The Psychology of Windfall Gains
Translocation Effects on the Behavior of Black-Tailed Prairie Dogs (Cynomys Ludovicianus)
We examined the effects of translocation on Black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) anti-predator behavior by recording response distances and response times to a human intruder in three colonies containing native, translocated, and combined native and translocated prairie dogs. The translocated prairie dogs barked alarms and concealed themselves at significantly greater intruder distances than mixed or native colonies. However, individua…
Separating the Noise from the Noise
Controlling for the confounding influence of physical disturbance, it was possible to test the hypothesis that ambient noise alone would play a role in structuring bird communities in riparian habitats in Boulder, Colorado, USA. Point counts of birds were conducted in open space/minimally disturbed, residential, commercial and industrial neighborhoods. Within the same disturbance parameters and land use, species richness and PIF scores (a weighte…
The Impact of Acuity on Performance of Four Clinical Measures of Contrast Sensitivity in Alzheimer's Disease
Investigations of contrast sensitivity losses in Alzheimer's disease (AD) have yielded mixed findings, with some investigators reporting deficits and others not. Potential reasons for these discrepancies include differences between samples and assessments utilized and the failure of some investigators to account for acuity differences between groups. To investigate these issues, we administered four clinical contrast sensitivity assessments to th…
Intuitive evaluation of likelihood judgment producers
This research tests the hypothesis of Yates et al. (1996) that people prefer judgment producers who make extreme confidence judgments. In each of three experiments, college students evaluated two fictional financial advisors who judged the likelihood that each of several stocks would increase in value. One of the advisors (the moderate advisor) was reasonably well calibrated and the other (the extreme advisor) was overconfident. In all three expe…
To thy own self be true
This study utilized Extended MSE Analysis to investigate the effects of two types of cognitive feedback on judgmental accuracy. Participants judged the income levels of respondents to the General Social Survey in both dilution and non-dilution scenarios, received feedback, and then repeated those judgments. Task information feedback produced improvements in judgmental accuracy, and this improvement occurred primarily from a reduction in the stand…
The role of self-esteem and anxiety in decision making for self versus others in relationships
Previous research has documented a tendency for people to make more risk-seeking decisions for others than for themselves in relationship scenarios. Two experiments investigated whether this self–other difference is moderated by participants' self-esteem and anxiety levels. In Experiment 1, lower self-esteem and higher anxiety levels were associated with more risk-averse choices for personal decisions but not for decisions for others. Therefore, …
The social implications of planning
Demonstrating and eliminating the aggregation effect in physical skill tasks
Confidence judgments can be elicited in multiple ways. One of these procedures is to provide confidence judgments regarding each of a number of cases (individual judgments). A second procedure is to provide confidence judgments about a set of items (an aggregate judgment). Much research has demonstrated an aggregation effect—that individual judgments are more confident than aggregate judgments—within the cognitive knowledge domain. However, this …
Leader‐driven distortion of probability and payoff information affects choices between risky prospects
Research indicating that decision makers often distort new information to favor nascent preferences has focused primarily on riskless choice rather than risky choice. In addition, the critical assumption that information distortion mediates the link between the initially preferred alternative and the final choice has not been tested in a compelling manner. In an experiment designed to fill these gaps, participants made six choices involving pairs…
The ‘Typhoon Eye Effect’
This study examined the effect of the SARS crisis on the level of distress in people both in and around epidemic areas of China during the time of the crisis. We designed a questionnaire to measure personality factors, beliefs regarding SARS, behavioral responses to SARS, and distress levels. The level of exposure to SARS was not a primary determinant of experienced anxiety; indeed, nearness to the center of the epidemic was negatively related to…
The effect of communication design and recipients’ numeracy on responses to UXO risk
Risk communications aim to affect recipients’ understanding of specific risks, their trust and liking of the materials, affective responses, and associated behaviors. We developed communications about the number of construction workers expected to get hurt if building were permitted at the former Fort Ord weapons training site in California, despite its contamination with unexploded ordnance (UXO). We created eight versions, which presented text …
Identifying the Effects of Unjustified Confidence versus Overconfidence
One of the most common findings in behavioral decision research is that people have unrealistic beliefs about how much they know. However, demonstrating that misplaced confidence exists does not necessarily mean that there are costs to it. This paper contrasts two approaches toward answering whether misplaced confidence is good or bad, which we have labeled the overconfidence and unjustified confidence approach. We first consider conceptual and a…
Salience Versus Proportional Reasoning
Two experiments examined predictions from two separate explanations for previously observed display effects for communicating low‐probability risks: foreground:background salience and proportional reasoning. According to foreground:background salience, people's risk perceptions are based on the relative salience of the foreground (number of people harmed) versus the background (number of people at risk), such that calling attention to the backgro…
Distinguishing the Ratio Bias from Unsystematic Error
People often perceive the occurrence of events to be less likely when the likelihood of the event is expressed in ratios consisting of smaller numbers versus larger numbers, an effect known as the ratio bias. This work presents a theoretical framework for the conditions that need to be met for the ratio bias to occur. In doing so, we contrast effects on the ratio bias to those on unsystematic error, which have often been confounded in previous re…
Automated calibration training for forecasters
In two studies, we investigated the effectiveness of an automated form of calibration training via individualized feedback as a means to improve calibration in forecasts. In Experiment 1, this training procedure was tested in a realistic forecasting situation, namely, predicting the outcome of baseball games. Experiment 2 was similar but used a more controlled forecasting task, predicting whether competitors would bust in a modified version of bl…
Communicating Probabilities of Cervical Cancer Screening Results with Icon Arrays or Tree Diagrams
Simple graphical displays such as icon arrays and tree diagrams have been proposed for communicating health risks and supporting informed decisions. The UK's National Health Service (NHS) uses tree diagrams to communicate the chances of different cervical cancer screening results, but their effectiveness has not been compared to icon arrays. We conducted a well-powered longitudinal experiment involving 3,100 UK women eligible for cervical screeni…
Effects of Descriptive Information on Mental Representations of Probability and Future Behavior in the Context of Personal Experience
It is increasingly recognized that new information is filtered through the lens of prior experience. Research has shown descriptive probability information (“description”) often does not impact decisions for people who have previously observed a sample of outcomes related to the choice (“experience”). However, the effect of description on mental representations of risk probability in the presence of experience has rarely been examined. In two exp…
Psychological and Behavioral Consequences of Confidence in Knowledge
A cursory read of the popular press and the JDM research field suggest that they have very different beliefs regarding the consequences of confidence. And these beliefs have important consequences themselves. For individuals, how one views the consequences of confidence (and whether they are positive or negative) likely influences the extent to which one pursues the development of confidence and how one interprets confidence in others. For JDM re…
Influencing Confidence
This paper examines approaches for influencing people's confidence in their knowledge without influencing knowledge. Three studies examined the relative effectiveness of training and false feedback approaches. Participants chose which of two IKEA products they thought was more expensive and indicated their confidence in that judgment for 50 product pairs. In Study 1, participants took part in one of five conditions designed to manipulate their co…
Psychology (16 obras) · Social Psychology (13 obras) · Computer Science (12 obras) · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics (12 obras) · Social Psychology (12 obras) · Artificial Intelligence (7 obras) · Cognitive psychology (7 obras) · Statistics (7 obras) · Mathematics (6 obras) · Behavioral Health and Interventions (5 obras)