David Spiegelhalter
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 4498283 |
|---|---|
| NOME | David Spiegelhalter |
| PRENOMES | David |
| SOBRENOME | Spiegelhalter |
| ASSINATURA | SPIEGELHALTER D |
| AFILIAÇÕES | University of Cambridge |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-9350-6745 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 11 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 181 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 11 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1998 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2021 |
| ÍNDICE H | 2 |
Covid-19 risk perception
In this study, we present results from five cross-sectional surveys on public risk perception of COVID-19 and its association with health protective behaviours in the UK over a 10-month period (March 2020 to January 2021). Samples were nationally balanced on age, gender, and ethnicity (total N = 6,281). We find that although risk perception varies between the time points surveyed, it is consistently, significantly, and positively correlated with …
Covid by Numbers
Risk perceptions of Covid-19 around the world
The World Health Organization has declared the rapid spread of COVID-19 around the world a global public health emergency. It is well-known that the spread of the disease is influenced by people’s willingness to adopt preventative public health behaviors, which are often associated with public risk perception. In this study, we present the first assessment of public risk perception of COVID-19 around the world using national samples (total N = 6,…
Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and science
Uncertainty is an inherent part of knowledge, and yet in an era of contested expertise, many shy away from openly communicating their uncertainty about what they know, fearful of their audience's reaction. But what effect does communication of such epistemic uncertainty have? Empirical research is widely scattered across many disciplines. This interdisciplinary review structures and summarizes current practice and research across domains, combini…
The pros and cons of funnel plots as an aid to risk communication and patient decision making
Funnel plots, which simultaneously display a sample statistic and the corresponding sample size for multiple cases, have a range of applications. In medicine, they are used to display treatment outcome rates and caseload volume by institution, which can inform strategic decisions about health care delivery. We investigated lay people's understanding of such plots and explored their suitability as an aid to individual treatment decisions. In two s…
Impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on smoking in adults and children
In the absence of direct evidence for the impact of introducing plain packaging on smoking rates in adults and children, this study shows that tobacco control experts felt the most likely outcomes would be a reduction in smoking prevalence in adults, and a greater reduction in the numbers of children trying smoking, although there was substantial variability in the estimated size of these impacts. No experts judged an increase in smoking as a lik…
Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future
We are all faced with uncertainty about the future, but we can get the measure of some uncertainties in terms of probabilities. Probabilities are notoriously difficult to communicate effectively to lay audiences, and in this review we examine current practice for communicating uncertainties visually, using examples drawn from sport, weather, climate, health, economics, and politics. Despite the burgeoning interest in infographics, there is limite…
‘Careless pork costs lives’
In 2007, British newspapers reported on a league table of local authorities in England according to their level of ‘hazardous drinking’, showing that typically middle-class areas such as Harrogate topped the hazardous drinking league. The table however was a synthetic estimate: what the study showed was the pattern of hazardous drinking within the British middle classes as a whole, regardless of location. At the same time, a report was published …
The ProActivetrial protocol – a randomised controlled trial of the efficacy of a family-based, domiciliary intervention programme to increase physical activity among individuals at high risk of diabet…
ProActive is the first efficacy trial of an intervention programme to promote physical activity in a defined high-risk group accessible through primary care. The intervention programme is based on psychological theory and evidence; it introduces and facilitates the use of self-regulatory skills to support behaviour change and maintenance. The trial addresses a range of methodological weaknesses in the field by careful specification and quality as…
Bayesian Measures of Model Complexity and Fit
We consider the problem of comparing complex hierarchical models in which the number of parameters is not clearly defined. Using an information theoretic argument we derive a measure pD for the effective number of parameters in a model as the difference between the posterior mean of the deviance and the deviance at the posterior means of the parameters of interest. In general pD approximately corresponds to the trace of the product of Fisher's in…
Comparison between two districts of the effects of an air pollution intervention on bronchial responsiveness in primary school children in Hong Kong
STUDY OBJECTIVE: This study examined the impact on children's respiratory health of a government air quality intervention that restricted the sulphur content of fuels to 0.5% from July 1990 onwards. DESIGN/SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: This study examined the changes, one and two years after the introduction of the intervention, in airway hyperreactivity of non-asthmatic and non-wheezing, primary 4, 5, and 6, school children aged 9-12 years living in a p…
Risk perceptions of Covid-19 around the world
The World Health Organization has declared the rapid spread of COVID-19 around the world a global public health emergency. It is well-known that the spread of the disease is influenced by people’s willingness to adopt preventative public health behaviors, which are often associated with public risk perception. In this study, we present the first assessment of public risk perception of COVID-19 around the world using national samples (total N = 6,…
Covid-19 risk perception
In this study, we present results from five cross-sectional surveys on public risk perception of COVID-19 and its association with health protective behaviours in the UK over a 10-month period (March 2020 to January 2021). Samples were nationally balanced on age, gender, and ethnicity (total N = 6,281). We find that although risk perception varies between the time points surveyed, it is consistently, significantly, and positively correlated with …
Comparison between two districts of the effects of an air pollution intervention on bronchial responsiveness in primary school children in Hong Kong
STUDY OBJECTIVE: This study examined the impact on children's respiratory health of a government air quality intervention that restricted the sulphur content of fuels to 0.5% from July 1990 onwards. DESIGN/SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: This study examined the changes, one and two years after the introduction of the intervention, in airway hyperreactivity of non-asthmatic and non-wheezing, primary 4, 5, and 6, school children aged 9-12 years living in a p…
Bayesian Measures of Model Complexity and Fit
We consider the problem of comparing complex hierarchical models in which the number of parameters is not clearly defined. Using an information theoretic argument we derive a measure pD for the effective number of parameters in a model as the difference between the posterior mean of the deviance and the deviance at the posterior means of the parameters of interest. In general pD approximately corresponds to the trace of the product of Fisher's in…
The ProActivetrial protocol – a randomised controlled trial of the efficacy of a family-based, domiciliary intervention programme to increase physical activity among individuals at high risk of diabet…
ProActive is the first efficacy trial of an intervention programme to promote physical activity in a defined high-risk group accessible through primary care. The intervention programme is based on psychological theory and evidence; it introduces and facilitates the use of self-regulatory skills to support behaviour change and maintenance. The trial addresses a range of methodological weaknesses in the field by careful specification and quality as…
Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future
We are all faced with uncertainty about the future, but we can get the measure of some uncertainties in terms of probabilities. Probabilities are notoriously difficult to communicate effectively to lay audiences, and in this review we examine current practice for communicating uncertainties visually, using examples drawn from sport, weather, climate, health, economics, and politics. Despite the burgeoning interest in infographics, there is limite…
‘Careless pork costs lives’
In 2007, British newspapers reported on a league table of local authorities in England according to their level of ‘hazardous drinking’, showing that typically middle-class areas such as Harrogate topped the hazardous drinking league. The table however was a synthetic estimate: what the study showed was the pattern of hazardous drinking within the British middle classes as a whole, regardless of location. At the same time, a report was published …
Impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on smoking in adults and children
In the absence of direct evidence for the impact of introducing plain packaging on smoking rates in adults and children, this study shows that tobacco control experts felt the most likely outcomes would be a reduction in smoking prevalence in adults, and a greater reduction in the numbers of children trying smoking, although there was substantial variability in the estimated size of these impacts. No experts judged an increase in smoking as a lik…
The pros and cons of funnel plots as an aid to risk communication and patient decision making
Funnel plots, which simultaneously display a sample statistic and the corresponding sample size for multiple cases, have a range of applications. In medicine, they are used to display treatment outcome rates and caseload volume by institution, which can inform strategic decisions about health care delivery. We investigated lay people's understanding of such plots and explored their suitability as an aid to individual treatment decisions. In two s…
Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and science
Uncertainty is an inherent part of knowledge, and yet in an era of contested expertise, many shy away from openly communicating their uncertainty about what they know, fearful of their audience's reaction. But what effect does communication of such epistemic uncertainty have? Empirical research is widely scattered across many disciplines. This interdisciplinary review structures and summarizes current practice and research across domains, combini…
Risk perceptions of Covid-19 around the world
The World Health Organization has declared the rapid spread of COVID-19 around the world a global public health emergency. It is well-known that the spread of the disease is influenced by people’s willingness to adopt preventative public health behaviors, which are often associated with public risk perception. In this study, we present the first assessment of public risk perception of COVID-19 around the world using national samples (total N = 6,…
Covid-19 risk perception
In this study, we present results from five cross-sectional surveys on public risk perception of COVID-19 and its association with health protective behaviours in the UK over a 10-month period (March 2020 to January 2021). Samples were nationally balanced on age, gender, and ethnicity (total N = 6,281). We find that although risk perception varies between the time points surveyed, it is consistently, significantly, and positively correlated with …
Covid by Numbers
Medicine (7 obras) · Environmental health (5 obras) · Psychology (5 obras) · Climate Change Communication and Perception (4 obras) · Public health (4 obras) · Computer Science (3 obras) · Political science (3 obras) · Risk Perception and Management (3 obras) · Social Psychology (3 obras) · Statistics (3 obras)