Alan J Rogers
Biographic Data
| ID | 4516358 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Alan J Rogers |
| GIVEN NAMES | Alan J |
| FAMILY NAME | Rogers |
| SIGNATURE | ROGERS A J |
| AFFILIATIONS | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 17 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 117 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 17 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1969 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2005 |
| H-INDEX | 6 |
Prosperous - But Precarious: Property Deeds and Mortgages in a Small Market Town in the 18th and 19th Centuries
This paper, based on a survey of property deeds in Uppingham, Rutland, looks at a number of case studies of mortgages used for trading and family purposes rather than for property or industrial development. It suggests that in this case some members of the community over-reached themselves, and that the level of indebtedness led to trading failures and a reluctance to support the provision of public services
A resource management tool for implementing strategic direction in an academic department
This paper reports on a load balancing system for an academic department, which can be used as an implementation mechanism for strategic planning. In essence, it consists of weighting each activity within the department and performing workload allocation based on this transparent scheme. The experience to date has been very positive, in terms of achieving strategic change and staff contentment
Immigration and the Regional Demographics of the Elderly Population in the United States
Little evidence exists of any significant breaks with past trends in internal elderly migration patterns. Reconstruction of elderly population changes between 1950 and 1990 reveals that the driving force behind the changes was net aging-in-place and not net migration. Finally, analysis of the possible population rejuvenating effects of immigration suggests that although its impact has contributed to lower elderly-to-worker dependency ratios, its …
Forecasting Fertility: An Application of Time Series Methods To Parameterized Model Schedules
Heterogeneity, Spatial Population Dynamics, and the Migration Rate
The literature on the impacts of heterogeneity and selection in population analysis has been limited largely to the conventional unistate perspective in which only decrements are considered; and their temporal (selectivity) impacts on independent subpopulations examined. In this paper, the focus is on the evolutionary dynamics of (multistate) multiregional populations whose interdependent subpopulations can experience increments as well as decrem…
The Importance of Place of Birth in Migration and Population Redistribution Analysis
Researchers on migration during the past two decades have increasingly interpreted geographical mobility as more than a one-time event in the lives of most people. This perspective has elevated the relative importance of the previous migration 'event histories' of individuals as variables in explanations of observed migration patterns. The role of migration away from and toward the place of birth has in particular received considerable attention.…
Spatial dynamics of populations with changing birth, death, and migration rates: A Generalization of Multiregional Stable Population Theory
Kim's recent reformulation in discrete time of Preston and Coale's continuous time generalized age-distribution model for any population is extended to the multiregional case by the introduction of interregional migration and the simultaneous consideration of multiple interacting regional populations. The paper begins with the use of a vector notation to describe the age - region distribution of any multiregional population and develops generaliz…
Migration and Settlement: A Multiregional Comparative Study
In 1976, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis initiated a study of migration and population distribution patterns in its seventeen member nations. In each country, the analysis was carried out by national scholars using techniques of multiregional demography. In this paper the authors describe the organization of the study, discuss the data bases used, evaluate the main results obtained, and review some of the methodological r…
Patterns of Family Migration: Two Methodological Approaches
It is widely recognized that many internal migrations are undertaken by individuals whose moves are dependent on those of others. For example, children migrate with their parents and wives with their husbands. This paper suggests two formulations of family migration that permit the introduction of such family dependencies into the population projection process
Introduction to Multistate Mathematical Demography
The study of the transitions that individuals experience over time, in the course of passing from one state of existence to another, is a fundamental dimension in much of mathematical demography. Recent work in multistate demographic analysis has led to a generalization of traditional demographic techniques for analyzing such problems. The papers in this issue are representative examples of work currently being carried out on this subject. A unif…
The Spatial Reproductive Value and the Spatial Momentum of Zero Population Growth
This paper develops the concept of spatial reproductive value and illustrates how such a notion may be used to trace out quantitatively the geographical impacts of a sudden reduction in fertility to bare replacement level. Such a reduction does not immediately produce zero population growth in populations that previously experienced high birthrates. The built-in momentum for continued growth and its spatial dimension may be assessed with the aid …
Model Migration Schedules and Their Applications
This paper considers and contrasts two alternative approaches for capturing the regularities exhibited by age patterns in observed migration rates. The mortality approach is considered first and it is shown how such an approach may be used to infer migration flows from two consecutive place-of-residence-by-place-of-birth census age distributions. The fertility approach is considered next, and techniques for graduating migration age profiles are d…
Shrinking Large-Scale Population-Projection Models by Aggregation and Decomposition
During the past two decades social scientists have come to model dynamic socioeconomic systems of growing size and complexity. Despite a heavy reliance on ever more sophisticated high-speed digital computers, however, computer capacity for handling such systems has not kept pace with the growing demands for more detailed information. Consequently, it is becoming ever more important to identify those aspects of a system which permit one to deal wi…
Quadrat Analysis of Urban Dispersion: 4. Spatial Sampling
This paper is the concluding part of a four-part essay on quadrat analysis. It shows how quadrat analysis of spatial dispersion may be linked with Jessen's (1970) method of probability sampling with marginal constraints to produce more efficient spatial sampling schemes
Quadrat Analysis of Urban Dispersion: 3. Bivariate Modelst
This paper is a continuation of an earlier two-part essay on quadrat analysis. It extends the previous discussion by introducing bivariate models of spatial dispersion to analyze statistically the correlated spatial clustering of food stores and population in urban areas. The data used for empirical study are the spatial patterns of food stores and residential population in Ljubljana, Yugoslavia
Quadrat Analysis of Urban Dispersion: 2. Case Studies of Urban Retail Systems
This is the second part of a two part paper; the first part reviewed the methodology of quadrat analysis and in this part, two case studies are presented. A brief introduction outlines the spatial structure of retailing in urban areas and it is then demonstrated how compound and generalized distributions offer a variety of models that can be fitted to empirical data about retail spatial structure. The empirical tests use data from Ljubljana, Yugo…
Quadrat Analysis of Urban Dispersion: 1. Theoretical Techniques
This is the first part of a two part paper, and is a review of the methodology of a particular technique of spatial point pattern analysis known as quadrat analysis. (The second part will present some case studies.) Various methods of statistical analysis of dispersion are reviewed at the outset, and such concepts as 'pattern' and 'shape' are defined. The two main parts of the review then deal in turn with theoretical distributions in quadrat ana…
Model Migration Schedules and Their Applications
This paper considers and contrasts two alternative approaches for capturing the regularities exhibited by age patterns in observed migration rates. The mortality approach is considered first and it is shown how such an approach may be used to infer migration flows from two consecutive place-of-residence-by-place-of-birth census age distributions. The fertility approach is considered next, and techniques for graduating migration age profiles are d…
Shrinking Large-Scale Population-Projection Models by Aggregation and Decomposition
During the past two decades social scientists have come to model dynamic socioeconomic systems of growing size and complexity. Despite a heavy reliance on ever more sophisticated high-speed digital computers, however, computer capacity for handling such systems has not kept pace with the growing demands for more detailed information. Consequently, it is becoming ever more important to identify those aspects of a system which permit one to deal wi…
The Importance of Place of Birth in Migration and Population Redistribution Analysis
Researchers on migration during the past two decades have increasingly interpreted geographical mobility as more than a one-time event in the lives of most people. This perspective has elevated the relative importance of the previous migration 'event histories' of individuals as variables in explanations of observed migration patterns. The role of migration away from and toward the place of birth has in particular received considerable attention.…
Immigration and the Regional Demographics of the Elderly Population in the United States
Little evidence exists of any significant breaks with past trends in internal elderly migration patterns. Reconstruction of elderly population changes between 1950 and 1990 reveals that the driving force behind the changes was net aging-in-place and not net migration. Finally, analysis of the possible population rejuvenating effects of immigration suggests that although its impact has contributed to lower elderly-to-worker dependency ratios, its …
Migration and Settlement: A Multiregional Comparative Study
In 1976, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis initiated a study of migration and population distribution patterns in its seventeen member nations. In each country, the analysis was carried out by national scholars using techniques of multiregional demography. In this paper the authors describe the organization of the study, discuss the data bases used, evaluate the main results obtained, and review some of the methodological r…
Introduction to Multistate Mathematical Demography
The study of the transitions that individuals experience over time, in the course of passing from one state of existence to another, is a fundamental dimension in much of mathematical demography. Recent work in multistate demographic analysis has led to a generalization of traditional demographic techniques for analyzing such problems. The papers in this issue are representative examples of work currently being carried out on this subject. A unif…
Quadrat Analysis of Urban Dispersion: 2. Case Studies of Urban Retail Systems
This is the second part of a two part paper; the first part reviewed the methodology of quadrat analysis and in this part, two case studies are presented. A brief introduction outlines the spatial structure of retailing in urban areas and it is then demonstrated how compound and generalized distributions offer a variety of models that can be fitted to empirical data about retail spatial structure. The empirical tests use data from Ljubljana, Yugo…
Quadrat Analysis of Urban Dispersion: 1. Theoretical Techniques
This is the first part of a two part paper, and is a review of the methodology of a particular technique of spatial point pattern analysis known as quadrat analysis. (The second part will present some case studies.) Various methods of statistical analysis of dispersion are reviewed at the outset, and such concepts as 'pattern' and 'shape' are defined. The two main parts of the review then deal in turn with theoretical distributions in quadrat ana…
A resource management tool for implementing strategic direction in an academic department
This paper reports on a load balancing system for an academic department, which can be used as an implementation mechanism for strategic planning. In essence, it consists of weighting each activity within the department and performing workload allocation based on this transparent scheme. The experience to date has been very positive, in terms of achieving strategic change and staff contentment
Forecasting Fertility: An Application of Time Series Methods To Parameterized Model Schedules
Patterns of Family Migration: Two Methodological Approaches
It is widely recognized that many internal migrations are undertaken by individuals whose moves are dependent on those of others. For example, children migrate with their parents and wives with their husbands. This paper suggests two formulations of family migration that permit the introduction of such family dependencies into the population projection process
Heterogeneity, Spatial Population Dynamics, and the Migration Rate
The literature on the impacts of heterogeneity and selection in population analysis has been limited largely to the conventional unistate perspective in which only decrements are considered; and their temporal (selectivity) impacts on independent subpopulations examined. In this paper, the focus is on the evolutionary dynamics of (multistate) multiregional populations whose interdependent subpopulations can experience increments as well as decrem…
Spatial dynamics of populations with changing birth, death, and migration rates: A Generalization of Multiregional Stable Population Theory
Kim's recent reformulation in discrete time of Preston and Coale's continuous time generalized age-distribution model for any population is extended to the multiregional case by the introduction of interregional migration and the simultaneous consideration of multiple interacting regional populations. The paper begins with the use of a vector notation to describe the age - region distribution of any multiregional population and develops generaliz…
The Spatial Reproductive Value and the Spatial Momentum of Zero Population Growth
This paper develops the concept of spatial reproductive value and illustrates how such a notion may be used to trace out quantitatively the geographical impacts of a sudden reduction in fertility to bare replacement level. Such a reduction does not immediately produce zero population growth in populations that previously experienced high birthrates. The built-in momentum for continued growth and its spatial dimension may be assessed with the aid …
Quadrat Analysis of Urban Dispersion: 3. Bivariate Modelst
This paper is a continuation of an earlier two-part essay on quadrat analysis. It extends the previous discussion by introducing bivariate models of spatial dispersion to analyze statistically the correlated spatial clustering of food stores and population in urban areas. The data used for empirical study are the spatial patterns of food stores and residential population in Ljubljana, Yugoslavia
Quadrat Analysis of Urban Dispersion: 2. Case Studies of Urban Retail Systems
This is the second part of a two part paper; the first part reviewed the methodology of quadrat analysis and in this part, two case studies are presented. A brief introduction outlines the spatial structure of retailing in urban areas and it is then demonstrated how compound and generalized distributions offer a variety of models that can be fitted to empirical data about retail spatial structure. The empirical tests use data from Ljubljana, Yugo…
Quadrat Analysis of Urban Dispersion: 1. Theoretical Techniques
This is the first part of a two part paper, and is a review of the methodology of a particular technique of spatial point pattern analysis known as quadrat analysis. (The second part will present some case studies.) Various methods of statistical analysis of dispersion are reviewed at the outset, and such concepts as 'pattern' and 'shape' are defined. The two main parts of the review then deal in turn with theoretical distributions in quadrat ana…
Quadrat Analysis of Urban Dispersion: 3. Bivariate Modelst
This paper is a continuation of an earlier two-part essay on quadrat analysis. It extends the previous discussion by introducing bivariate models of spatial dispersion to analyze statistically the correlated spatial clustering of food stores and population in urban areas. The data used for empirical study are the spatial patterns of food stores and residential population in Ljubljana, Yugoslavia
Quadrat Analysis of Urban Dispersion: 4. Spatial Sampling
This paper is the concluding part of a four-part essay on quadrat analysis. It shows how quadrat analysis of spatial dispersion may be linked with Jessen's (1970) method of probability sampling with marginal constraints to produce more efficient spatial sampling schemes
Shrinking Large-Scale Population-Projection Models by Aggregation and Decomposition
During the past two decades social scientists have come to model dynamic socioeconomic systems of growing size and complexity. Despite a heavy reliance on ever more sophisticated high-speed digital computers, however, computer capacity for handling such systems has not kept pace with the growing demands for more detailed information. Consequently, it is becoming ever more important to identify those aspects of a system which permit one to deal wi…
The Spatial Reproductive Value and the Spatial Momentum of Zero Population Growth
This paper develops the concept of spatial reproductive value and illustrates how such a notion may be used to trace out quantitatively the geographical impacts of a sudden reduction in fertility to bare replacement level. Such a reduction does not immediately produce zero population growth in populations that previously experienced high birthrates. The built-in momentum for continued growth and its spatial dimension may be assessed with the aid …
Model Migration Schedules and Their Applications
This paper considers and contrasts two alternative approaches for capturing the regularities exhibited by age patterns in observed migration rates. The mortality approach is considered first and it is shown how such an approach may be used to infer migration flows from two consecutive place-of-residence-by-place-of-birth census age distributions. The fertility approach is considered next, and techniques for graduating migration age profiles are d…
Introduction to Multistate Mathematical Demography
The study of the transitions that individuals experience over time, in the course of passing from one state of existence to another, is a fundamental dimension in much of mathematical demography. Recent work in multistate demographic analysis has led to a generalization of traditional demographic techniques for analyzing such problems. The papers in this issue are representative examples of work currently being carried out on this subject. A unif…
Migration and Settlement: A Multiregional Comparative Study
In 1976, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis initiated a study of migration and population distribution patterns in its seventeen member nations. In each country, the analysis was carried out by national scholars using techniques of multiregional demography. In this paper the authors describe the organization of the study, discuss the data bases used, evaluate the main results obtained, and review some of the methodological r…
Patterns of Family Migration: Two Methodological Approaches
It is widely recognized that many internal migrations are undertaken by individuals whose moves are dependent on those of others. For example, children migrate with their parents and wives with their husbands. This paper suggests two formulations of family migration that permit the introduction of such family dependencies into the population projection process
Spatial dynamics of populations with changing birth, death, and migration rates: A Generalization of Multiregional Stable Population Theory
Kim's recent reformulation in discrete time of Preston and Coale's continuous time generalized age-distribution model for any population is extended to the multiregional case by the introduction of interregional migration and the simultaneous consideration of multiple interacting regional populations. The paper begins with the use of a vector notation to describe the age - region distribution of any multiregional population and develops generaliz…
The Importance of Place of Birth in Migration and Population Redistribution Analysis
Researchers on migration during the past two decades have increasingly interpreted geographical mobility as more than a one-time event in the lives of most people. This perspective has elevated the relative importance of the previous migration 'event histories' of individuals as variables in explanations of observed migration patterns. The role of migration away from and toward the place of birth has in particular received considerable attention.…
Heterogeneity, Spatial Population Dynamics, and the Migration Rate
The literature on the impacts of heterogeneity and selection in population analysis has been limited largely to the conventional unistate perspective in which only decrements are considered; and their temporal (selectivity) impacts on independent subpopulations examined. In this paper, the focus is on the evolutionary dynamics of (multistate) multiregional populations whose interdependent subpopulations can experience increments as well as decrem…
Forecasting Fertility: An Application of Time Series Methods To Parameterized Model Schedules
Immigration and the Regional Demographics of the Elderly Population in the United States
Little evidence exists of any significant breaks with past trends in internal elderly migration patterns. Reconstruction of elderly population changes between 1950 and 1990 reveals that the driving force behind the changes was net aging-in-place and not net migration. Finally, analysis of the possible population rejuvenating effects of immigration suggests that although its impact has contributed to lower elderly-to-worker dependency ratios, its …
Prosperous - But Precarious: Property Deeds and Mortgages in a Small Market Town in the 18th and 19th Centuries
This paper, based on a survey of property deeds in Uppingham, Rutland, looks at a number of case studies of mortgages used for trading and family purposes rather than for property or industrial development. It suggests that in this case some members of the community over-reached themselves, and that the level of indebtedness led to trading failures and a reluctance to support the provision of public services
A resource management tool for implementing strategic direction in an academic department
This paper reports on a load balancing system for an academic department, which can be used as an implementation mechanism for strategic planning. In essence, it consists of weighting each activity within the department and performing workload allocation based on this transparent scheme. The experience to date has been very positive, in terms of achieving strategic change and staff contentment
Geography (11 works) · Population (11 works) · Demography (10 works) · Computer Science (9 works) · Economics (9 works) · Mathematics (9 works) · Econometrics (8 works) · Sociology (8 works) · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management (7 works) · Statistics (6 works)