Antonio Gasparrini
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 4621730 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Antonio Gasparrini |
| NOMBRES | Antonio |
| APELLIDO | Gasparrini |
| FIRMA | GASPARRINI A |
| AFILIACIONES | London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-2271-3568 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 44 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 4 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 44 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2010 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 1 |
Association of mortality and combined oxidative capacity of ozone and nitrogen dioxide
Improved global air quality health index reveals ozone and nitrogen dioxide as main drivers of air-pollution-related acute mortality
The effectiveness of heat prevention plans in reducing heat-related mortality across Europe
Heat-health warning systems and action plans, referred to as heat prevention plans (HPPs), are key public health interventions aimed at reducing heat-related mortality. Despite their importance, prior assessments of their effectiveness have yielded inconsistent results. The objective of this study is to systematically assess the effectiveness of HPPs in reducing heat-related mortality risk across Europe. We analysed daily mortality and mean tempe…
Priority climate and health modelling needs
Climate and health modelling is necessary for improving understanding of the current and future distribution and timing of climate-related health risks. However, underinvestment in this area has limited the understanding required to inform policies that enable multisectoral interventions to safeguard health. We synthesised insights from a survey of 65 global climate and health modelling experts and 36 participants in a hybrid meeting to identify …
Associations of ambient exposure to benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene with daily mortality
Are there more cold deaths than heat deaths
Peer reviewed
Estimating the urban heat-related mortality burden due to greenness
Quantifying the effects of attacks on health facilities on health service use in Northwest Syria
BACKGROUND: Throughout the Syrian conflict, the Syrian government has intentionally attacked health facilities, violating International Humanitarian Law. Previous studies have qualitatively described health system disruptions following attacks on healthcare or established associations between armed conflict and health service utilisation, but there are no quantitative studies exploring the effects of health facility attacks. Our unprecedented stu…
Impact, feasibility, and acceptability of CREATORS
Background: Mental-health-related stigma prevents youth from seeking help for mental health problems. Limited studies in low- and middle-income countries assess the effect of arts-based education in reducing such stigma among youth, thereby leaving a gap in evidence-based, age- and culturally-appropriate interventions. Objective: To evaluate the impact, feasibility, and acceptability of CREATORS, an arts-based educational program on reducing ment…
Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of climate and air quality controls consistent with the Paris Agreement
A better integration of health and economic impact assessments of climate change
Climate change could lead to high economic burden for individuals (i.e. low income and high prices). While economic conditions are important determinants of climate change vulnerability, environmental epidemiological studies focus primarily on the direct impact of temperature on morbidity and mortality without accounting for climate-induced impacts on the economy. More integrated approaches are needed to provide comprehensive assessments of clima…
Commentary
Recent advances in data science and urban environmental health research utilise large-scale databases (100s-1000s of cities) to explore the complex interplay of urban characteristics such as city form and size, climate, mobility, exposure, and environmental health impacts. Cities are still hotspots of air pollution and noise, suffer urban heat island effects and lack of green space, which leads to disease and mortality burdens preventable with be…
Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold
BACKGROUND: Heat and cold are established environmental risk factors for human health. However, mapping the related health burden is a difficult task due to the complexity of the associations and the differences in vulnerability and demographic distributions. In this study, we did a comprehensive mortality impact assessment due to heat and cold in European urban areas, considering geographical differences and age-specific risks. METHODS: We inclu…
Cooling cities through urban green infrastructure
Global warming may significantly increase childhood anemia burden in sub-Saharan Africa
Neglected implications of land-use and land-cover changes on the climate-health nexus
Climate change can substantially affect temperature-related mortality and morbidity, especially under high green-house gas emission pathways. Achieving the Paris Agreement goals require not only drastic reductions in fossil fuel-based emissions but also land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC), such as reforestation and afforestation. LULCC has been mainly analysed in the context of land-based mitigation and food security. However, growing scienti…
Non-optimal apparent temperature and cardiovascular mortality
Both heat and cold contribute to the burden of CVDs attributable to non-optimal temperatures in the tropical Puducherry. Our study also identified the age-and-sex and CVD type differences in temperature attributable CVD mortalities. Further studies from India could identify regional associations, inform our understanding of the health implications of climate change in India and enhance the development of regional and contextual climate-health act…
Estimating heat-related mortality in near real time for national heatwave plans
Heatwaves are a serious threat to human life. Public health agencies that are responsible for delivering heat-health action plans need to assess and reduce the mortality impacts of heat. Statistical models developed in epidemiology have previously been used to attribute past observed deaths to high temperatures and project future heat-related deaths. Here, we investigate the novel use of summer temperature-mortality associations established by th…
Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019
BACKGROUND: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. METHODS: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy…
The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change
Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991-2018. Across all study countries, w…
Mortality Risk from Respiratory Diseases Due to Non-Optimal Temperature among Brazilian Elderlies
Over the past decade, Brazil has experienced and continues to be impacted by extreme climate events. This study aims to evaluate the association between daily average temperature and mortality from respiratory disease among Brazilian elderlies. A daily time-series study between 2000 and 2017 in 27 Brazilian cities was conducted. Data outcomes were daily counts of deaths due to respiratory diseases in the elderly aged 60 or more. The exposure vari…
Ambient Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in 652 Cities
BACKGROUND: The systematic evaluation of the results of time-series studies of air pollution is challenged by differences in model specification and publication bias. METHODS: ) with daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries or regions. Daily data on mortality and air pollution were collected from 652 cities in 24 countries or regions. We used overdispersed generalized additive models with random-effects…
The use of controls in interrupted time series studies of public health interventions
Interrupted time series analysis differs from most other intervention study designs in that it involves a before-after comparison within a single population, rather than a comparison with a control group. This has the advantage that selection bias and confounding due to between-group differences are limited. However, the basic interrupted time series design cannot exclude confounding due to co-interventions or other events occurring around the ti…
Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios
BACKGROUND: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to Dec…
Synergistic Effects of Ambient Temperature and Air Pollution on Health in Europe
We studied the potential synergy between air pollution and meteorology and their impact on mortality in nine European cities with data from 2004 to 2010. We used daily series of Apparent Temperature (AT), measurements of particulate matter (PM 10 ), ozone (O3), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and total non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths. We applied Poisson regression for city-specific analysis and random effects meta-analysis to co…
Estimating the urban heat-related mortality burden due to greenness
Are there more cold deaths than heat deaths
Peer reviewed
Change in non-alcoholic beverage sales following a 10-pence levy on sugar-sweetened beverages within a national chain of restaurants in the UK
BACKGROUND: This study evaluates changes in sales of non-alcoholic beverages in Jamie's Italian, a national chain of commercial restaurants in the UK, following the introduction of a £0.10 per-beverage levy on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and supporting activity including beverage menu redesign, new products and establishment of a children's health fund from levy proceeds. METHODS: We used an interrupted time series design to quantify changes…
Distributed lag non‐linear models
Environmental stressors often show effects that are delayed in time, requiring the use of statistical models that are flexible enough to describe the additional time dimension of the exposure–response relationship. Here we develop the family of distributed lag non‐linear models (DLNM), a modelling framework that can simultaneously represent non‐linear exposure–response dependencies and delayed effects. This methodology is based on the definition …
Distributed Lag Linear and Non-Linear Models in R
Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) represent a modeling framework to flexibly describe associations showing potentially non-linear and delayed effects in time series data. This methodology rests on the definition of a crossbasis , a bi-dimensional functional space expressed by the combination of two sets of basis functions, which specify the relationships in the dimensions of predictor and lags, respectively. This framework is implemented …
The Impact of Heat Waves on Mortality
BACKGROUND: Heat waves have been linked with an increase in mortality, but the associated risk has been only partly characterized. METHODS: We examined this association by decomposing the risk for temperature into a "main effect" due to independent effects of daily high temperatures, and an "added" effect due to sustained duration of heat during waves, using data from 108 communities in the United States during 1987-2000. We adopted different def…
Multivariate meta‐analysis for non‐linear and other multi‐parameter associations
In this paper, we formalize the application of multivariate meta‐analysis and meta‐regression to synthesize estimates of multi‐parameter associations obtained from different studies. This modelling approach extends the standard two‐stage analysis used to combine results across different sub‐groups or populations. The most straightforward application is for the meta‐analysis of non‐linear relationships, described for example by regression coeffici…
Mortality on extreme heat days using official thresholds in Spain
This study confirmed that extreme heat days have a considerable impact on total daily mortality in Spain. Official thresholds gave consistent relative risk in the large capital cities. However, in some other cities thresholds
Time series regression studies in environmental epidemiology
Time series regression studies have been widely used in environmental epidemiology, notably in investigating the short-term associations between exposures such as air pollution, weather variables or pollen, and health outcomes such as mortality, myocardial infarction or disease-specific hospital admissions. Typically, for both exposure and outcome, data are available at regular time intervals (e.g. daily pollution levels and daily mortality count…
The effect of the late 2000s financial crisis on suicides in Spain
BACKGROUND: The current financial crisis is having a major impact on European economies, especially that of Spain. Past evidence suggests that adverse macro-economic conditions exacerbate mental illness, but evidence from the current crisis is limited. This study analyses the association between the financial crisis and suicide rates in Spain. METHODS: An interrupted time-series analysis of national suicides data between 2005 and 2010 was used to…
Reducing and meta-analysing estimates from distributed lag non-linear models
BACKGROUND: The two-stage time series design represents a powerful analytical tool in environmental epidemiology. Recently, models for both stages have been extended with the development of distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs), a methodology for investigating simultaneously non-linear and lagged relationships, and multivariate meta-analysis, a methodology to pool estimates of multi-parameter associations. However, the application of both met…
Global Variation in the Effects of Ambient Temperature on Mortality
BACKGROUND: Studies have examined the effects of temperature on mortality in a single city, country, or region. However, less evidence is available on the variation in the associations between temperature and mortality in multiple countries, analyzed simultaneously. METHODS: We obtained daily data on temperature and mortality in 306 communities from 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Thailand, China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Italy, Spain, Unit…
Attributable risk from distributed lag models
BACKGROUND: Measures of attributable risk are an integral part of epidemiological analyses, particularly when aimed at the planning and evaluation of public health interventions. However, the current definition of such measures does not consider any temporal relationships between exposure and risk. In this contribution, we propose extended definitions of attributable risk within the framework of distributed lag non-linear models, an approach rece…
Modeling exposure–lag–response associations with distributed lag non‐linear models
In biomedical research, a health effect is frequently associated with protracted exposures of varying intensity sustained in the past. The main complexity of modeling and interpreting such phenomena lies in the additional temporal dimension needed to express the association, as the risk depends on both intensity and timing of past exposures. This type of dependency is defined here as exposure–lag–response association. In this contribution, I illu…
Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature
BACKGROUND: Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures…
Temporal Variation in Heat–Mortality Associations
BACKGROUND: Recent investigations have reported a decline in the heat-related mortality risk during the last decades. However, these studies are frequently based on modeling approaches that do not fully characterize the complex temperature-mortality relationship, and are limited to single cities or countries. OBJECTIVES: We assessed the temporal variation in heat-mortality associations in a multi-country data set using flexible modelling techniqu…
Changes in the Effect of Heat on Mortality in the Last 20 Years in Nine European Cities. Results from the PHASE Project
The European project PHASE aims to evaluate patterns of change in the temperature-mortality relationship and in the number of deaths attributable to heat in nine European cities in two periods, before and after summer 2003 (1996-2002 and 2004-2010). We performed age-specific Poisson regression models separately in the two periods, controlling for seasonality, air pollution and time trends. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate t…
Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions
Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis is a valuable study design for evaluating the effectiveness of population-level health interventions that have been implemented at a clearly defined point in time. It is increasingly being used to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions ranging from clinical therapy to national public health legislation. Whereas the design shares many properties of regression-based approaches in other epidemiological stu…
Ambient temperature as a trigger of preterm delivery in a temperate climate
BACKGROUND: Recent evidence suggests that elevated ambient temperatures may trigger preterm delivery. Since results from studies in temperate climates are inconclusive, we investigated the association between temperature and the risk of preterm birth in Flanders (Belgium). METHODS: We used data on 807 835 singleton deliveries (January 1998-July 2011). We combined a quasi-Poisson model with distributed lag non-linear models to allow for delayed an…
Heat Wave and Mortality
BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined variation in the associations between heat waves and mortality in an international context. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to systematically examine the impacts of heat waves on mortality with lag effects internationally. METHODS: We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 400 communities in 18 countries/regions and defined 12 types of heat waves by combining community-specific daily mean temperature ≥90…
Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios
BACKGROUND: Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. METHODS: We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or n…
Change in non-alcoholic beverage sales following a 10-pence levy on sugar-sweetened beverages within a national chain of restaurants in the UK
BACKGROUND: This study evaluates changes in sales of non-alcoholic beverages in Jamie's Italian, a national chain of commercial restaurants in the UK, following the introduction of a £0.10 per-beverage levy on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and supporting activity including beverage menu redesign, new products and establishment of a children's health fund from levy proceeds. METHODS: We used an interrupted time series design to quantify changes…
The use of controls in interrupted time series studies of public health interventions
Interrupted time series analysis differs from most other intervention study designs in that it involves a before-after comparison within a single population, rather than a comparison with a control group. This has the advantage that selection bias and confounding due to between-group differences are limited. However, the basic interrupted time series design cannot exclude confounding due to co-interventions or other events occurring around the ti…
Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios
BACKGROUND: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to Dec…
Synergistic Effects of Ambient Temperature and Air Pollution on Health in Europe
We studied the potential synergy between air pollution and meteorology and their impact on mortality in nine European cities with data from 2004 to 2010. We used daily series of Apparent Temperature (AT), measurements of particulate matter (PM 10 ), ozone (O3), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and total non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths. We applied Poisson regression for city-specific analysis and random effects meta-analysis to co…
Ambient Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in 652 Cities
BACKGROUND: The systematic evaluation of the results of time-series studies of air pollution is challenged by differences in model specification and publication bias. METHODS: ) with daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries or regions. Daily data on mortality and air pollution were collected from 652 cities in 24 countries or regions. We used overdispersed generalized additive models with random-effects…
Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019
BACKGROUND: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. METHODS: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy…
The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change
Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991-2018. Across all study countries, w…
Climate Change and Health Impacts (32 obras) · Medicine (25 obras) · Air Quality and Health Impacts (21 obras) · Geography (21 obras) · Environmental health (18 obras) · Demography (16 obras) · Mathematics (16 obras) · Statistics (16 obras) · Climate change (15 obras) · Environmental Science (15 obras)