Daniel N Osherson
Biographic Data
| ID | 5448393 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Daniel N Osherson |
| GIVEN NAMES | Daniel N |
| FAMILY NAME | Osherson |
| SIGNATURE | OSHERSON D N |
| AFFILIATIONS | Princeton University |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 10 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 25 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 10 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1989 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2012 |
| H-INDEX | 3 |
Citizen Forecasts of the 2008 U . S . Presidential Election
We analyze individual probabilistic predictions of state outcomes in the 2008 U . S . presidential election. Employing an original survey of more than 19,000 respondents, we find that partisans gave higher probabilities to their favored candidates, but this bias was reduced by education, numerical sophistication, and the level of O bama support in their home states. In aggregate, we show that individual biases balance out, and the group's predict…
Inferring the preferences of others from spontaneous, low-emotional facial expressions
A note on concave utility functions
Scientific Discovery from the Perspective of Hypothesis Acceptance
A model of inductive inquiry is defined within the context of first-order logic. The model conceives of inquiry as a game between Nature and a scientist. To begin the game, a nonlogical vocabulary is agreed upon by the two players, along with a partition of a class of countable structures for that vocabulary. Next, Nature secretly chooses one structure (“the real world”) from some cell of the partition. She then presents the scientist with a sequ…
Learning to Coordinate; a Recursion Theoretic Perspective
Belief revision in the service of scientific discovery
Category-based induction.
An argument is categorical if its premises and conclusion are of the form All members ofC have property F, where C is a natural category like FALCON or BIRD, and P remains the same across premises and conclusion. An example is Grizzly bears love onions. Therefore, all bears love onions. Such an argument is psychologically strong to the extent that belief in its premises engenders belief in its conclusion. A subclass of categorical arguments is ex…
On Advancing Simple Hypotheses
We consider drawbacks to scientific methods that prefer simple hypotheses to complex ones that cover the same data. The discussion proceeds in the context of a precise model of scientific inquiry
An advantage model of choice
A descriptive model of choice between simple lotteries is proposed. According to the model, people combine 'absolute' and 'comparative' strategies in choice situations. Three experimental tests of the model are reported. In its limited domain, the model appears superior to Prospect Theory on qualitative grounds, and to 1‐parameter versions of Expected Utility Theory on both qualitative and quantitative grounds
Identifiable Collections of Countable Structures
A model of idealized scientific inquiry is presented in which scientists are required to infer the nature of the structure that makes true the data they examine. A necessary and sufficient condition is presented for scientific success within this paradigm
Citizen Forecasts of the 2008 U . S . Presidential Election
We analyze individual probabilistic predictions of state outcomes in the 2008 U . S . presidential election. Employing an original survey of more than 19,000 respondents, we find that partisans gave higher probabilities to their favored candidates, but this bias was reduced by education, numerical sophistication, and the level of O bama support in their home states. In aggregate, we show that individual biases balance out, and the group's predict…
An advantage model of choice
A descriptive model of choice between simple lotteries is proposed. According to the model, people combine 'absolute' and 'comparative' strategies in choice situations. Three experimental tests of the model are reported. In its limited domain, the model appears superior to Prospect Theory on qualitative grounds, and to 1‐parameter versions of Expected Utility Theory on both qualitative and quantitative grounds
Inferring the preferences of others from spontaneous, low-emotional facial expressions
Identifiable Collections of Countable Structures
A model of idealized scientific inquiry is presented in which scientists are required to infer the nature of the structure that makes true the data they examine. A necessary and sufficient condition is presented for scientific success within this paradigm
An advantage model of choice
A descriptive model of choice between simple lotteries is proposed. According to the model, people combine 'absolute' and 'comparative' strategies in choice situations. Three experimental tests of the model are reported. In its limited domain, the model appears superior to Prospect Theory on qualitative grounds, and to 1‐parameter versions of Expected Utility Theory on both qualitative and quantitative grounds
Identifiable Collections of Countable Structures
A model of idealized scientific inquiry is presented in which scientists are required to infer the nature of the structure that makes true the data they examine. A necessary and sufficient condition is presented for scientific success within this paradigm
Category-based induction.
An argument is categorical if its premises and conclusion are of the form All members ofC have property F, where C is a natural category like FALCON or BIRD, and P remains the same across premises and conclusion. An example is Grizzly bears love onions. Therefore, all bears love onions. Such an argument is psychologically strong to the extent that belief in its premises engenders belief in its conclusion. A subclass of categorical arguments is ex…
On Advancing Simple Hypotheses
We consider drawbacks to scientific methods that prefer simple hypotheses to complex ones that cover the same data. The discussion proceeds in the context of a precise model of scientific inquiry
Belief revision in the service of scientific discovery
Learning to Coordinate; a Recursion Theoretic Perspective
Scientific Discovery from the Perspective of Hypothesis Acceptance
A model of inductive inquiry is defined within the context of first-order logic. The model conceives of inquiry as a game between Nature and a scientist. To begin the game, a nonlogical vocabulary is agreed upon by the two players, along with a partition of a class of countable structures for that vocabulary. Next, Nature secretly chooses one structure (“the real world”) from some cell of the partition. She then presents the scientist with a sequ…
A note on concave utility functions
Inferring the preferences of others from spontaneous, low-emotional facial expressions
Citizen Forecasts of the 2008 U . S . Presidential Election
We analyze individual probabilistic predictions of state outcomes in the 2008 U . S . presidential election. Employing an original survey of more than 19,000 respondents, we find that partisans gave higher probabilities to their favored candidates, but this bias was reduced by education, numerical sophistication, and the level of O bama support in their home states. In aggregate, we show that individual biases balance out, and the group's predict…
Computer Science (7 works) · Epistemology (7 works) · Philosophy (6 works) · Mathematical economics (4 works) · Mathematics (4 works) · Artificial Intelligence (3 works) · Computability, Logic, AI Algorithms (3 works) · Economics (3 works) · Linguistics (3 works) · Machine Learning and Algorithms (3 works)