Clintin P Davis‐Stober
Biographic Data
| ID | 5450040 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Clintin P Davis‐Stober |
| GIVEN NAMES | Clintin P |
| FAMILY NAME | Davis‐Stober |
| SIGNATURE | STOBER C P D |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Missouri |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-6836-6979 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 9 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 19 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 9 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2016 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2024 |
| H-INDEX | 2 |
Better Accuracy for Better Science . . . Through Random Conclusions
Conducting research with human subjects can be difficult because of limited sample sizes and small empirical effects. We demonstrate that this problem can yield patterns of results that are practically indistinguishable from flipping a coin to determine the direction of treatment effects. We use this idea of random conclusions to establish a baseline for interpreting effect-size estimates, in turn producing more stringent thresholds for hypothesi…
The Strengths and Weaknesses of Crowds to Address Global Problems
Global climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the spread of misinformation on social media are just a handful of highly consequential problems affecting society. We argue that the rough contours of many societal problems can be framed within a “wisdom of crowds” perspective. Such a framing allows researchers to recast complex problems within a simple conceptual framework and leverage known results on crowd wisdom. To this end, we present a si…
The Problem of Coordination and the Pursuit of Structural Constraints in Psychology
Paul Meehl’s famous critique detailed many of the problematic practices and conceptual confusions that stand in the way of meaningful theoretical progress in psychological science. By integrating many of Meehl’s points, we argue that one of the reasons for the slow progress in psychology is the failure to acknowledge the problem of coordination. This problem arises whenever we attempt to measure quantities that are not directly observable but can…
Modeling choice paradoxes under risk: From prospect theories to sampling-based accounts
Testing the Random Utility Hypothesis Directly
We test a set of inequalities in choice probabilities, shown to be necessary and sufficient for random utility by Falmagne (1978). We run an experiment in which each of 141 participants chooses six times from each doubleton or larger subset of a universe of five lotteries. We compute Bayes factors in favour of random utility, versus an alternative with unrestricted choice probabilities. There is strong evidence that a large majority of participan…
Optimal cue aggregation in the absence of criterion knowledge
The study of multi‐cue judgment investigates how decision makers aggregate cues to predict the value of a criterion variable. We consider a multi‐cue judgment task in which decision makers have prior knowledge of inter‐cue relationships but are ignorant of how the cues correlate with the criterion. In this setting, a naive judgment strategy prescribes weighting the cues equally. Although many participants are well described via an equal weighting…
The Role of Independence and Stationarity in Probabilistic Models of Binary Choice
After more then 50 years of probabilistic choice modeling in Economics, Marketing, Political Science, Psychology, and related disciplines, theoretical and computational advances give scholars access to a sophisticated array of modeling and inference resources. We review some important, but perhaps often overlooked, properties of major classes of probabilistic choice models. For within-respondent applications, we discuss which models require repea…
Modeling Between‐Subject Variability in Decision Strategies via Statistical Clustering: A p ‐Median Approach
We present a statistical methodology for clustering decision makers according to similar choice behavior. We apply a p ‐median clustering algorithm that identifies an “exemplar” for each cluster, a decision maker who best represents that cluster. We demonstrate that information about group behavior can be inferred by examining the behavior of each cluster's exemplar. The method is exploratory, providing information about the prevalence of decisio…
The pipeline project: Pre-publication independent replications of a single laboratory's research pipeline
This crowdsourced project introduces a collaborative approach to improving the reproducibility of scientific research, in which findings are replicated in qualified independent laboratories before (rather than after) they are published. Our goal is to establish a non-adversarial replication process with highly informative final results. To illustrate the Pre-Publication Independent Replication (PPIR) approach, 25 research groups conducted replica…
The pipeline project: Pre-publication independent replications of a single laboratory's research pipeline
This crowdsourced project introduces a collaborative approach to improving the reproducibility of scientific research, in which findings are replicated in qualified independent laboratories before (rather than after) they are published. Our goal is to establish a non-adversarial replication process with highly informative final results. To illustrate the Pre-Publication Independent Replication (PPIR) approach, 25 research groups conducted replica…
The Role of Independence and Stationarity in Probabilistic Models of Binary Choice
After more then 50 years of probabilistic choice modeling in Economics, Marketing, Political Science, Psychology, and related disciplines, theoretical and computational advances give scholars access to a sophisticated array of modeling and inference resources. We review some important, but perhaps often overlooked, properties of major classes of probabilistic choice models. For within-respondent applications, we discuss which models require repea…
Testing the Random Utility Hypothesis Directly
We test a set of inequalities in choice probabilities, shown to be necessary and sufficient for random utility by Falmagne (1978). We run an experiment in which each of 141 participants chooses six times from each doubleton or larger subset of a universe of five lotteries. We compute Bayes factors in favour of random utility, versus an alternative with unrestricted choice probabilities. There is strong evidence that a large majority of participan…
Modeling Between‐Subject Variability in Decision Strategies via Statistical Clustering: A p ‐Median Approach
We present a statistical methodology for clustering decision makers according to similar choice behavior. We apply a p ‐median clustering algorithm that identifies an “exemplar” for each cluster, a decision maker who best represents that cluster. We demonstrate that information about group behavior can be inferred by examining the behavior of each cluster's exemplar. The method is exploratory, providing information about the prevalence of decisio…
The pipeline project: Pre-publication independent replications of a single laboratory's research pipeline
This crowdsourced project introduces a collaborative approach to improving the reproducibility of scientific research, in which findings are replicated in qualified independent laboratories before (rather than after) they are published. Our goal is to establish a non-adversarial replication process with highly informative final results. To illustrate the Pre-Publication Independent Replication (PPIR) approach, 25 research groups conducted replica…
The Role of Independence and Stationarity in Probabilistic Models of Binary Choice
After more then 50 years of probabilistic choice modeling in Economics, Marketing, Political Science, Psychology, and related disciplines, theoretical and computational advances give scholars access to a sophisticated array of modeling and inference resources. We review some important, but perhaps often overlooked, properties of major classes of probabilistic choice models. For within-respondent applications, we discuss which models require repea…
Optimal cue aggregation in the absence of criterion knowledge
The study of multi‐cue judgment investigates how decision makers aggregate cues to predict the value of a criterion variable. We consider a multi‐cue judgment task in which decision makers have prior knowledge of inter‐cue relationships but are ignorant of how the cues correlate with the criterion. In this setting, a naive judgment strategy prescribes weighting the cues equally. Although many participants are well described via an equal weighting…
Modeling choice paradoxes under risk: From prospect theories to sampling-based accounts
Testing the Random Utility Hypothesis Directly
We test a set of inequalities in choice probabilities, shown to be necessary and sufficient for random utility by Falmagne (1978). We run an experiment in which each of 141 participants chooses six times from each doubleton or larger subset of a universe of five lotteries. We compute Bayes factors in favour of random utility, versus an alternative with unrestricted choice probabilities. There is strong evidence that a large majority of participan…
The Problem of Coordination and the Pursuit of Structural Constraints in Psychology
Paul Meehl’s famous critique detailed many of the problematic practices and conceptual confusions that stand in the way of meaningful theoretical progress in psychological science. By integrating many of Meehl’s points, we argue that one of the reasons for the slow progress in psychology is the failure to acknowledge the problem of coordination. This problem arises whenever we attempt to measure quantities that are not directly observable but can…
Better Accuracy for Better Science . . . Through Random Conclusions
Conducting research with human subjects can be difficult because of limited sample sizes and small empirical effects. We demonstrate that this problem can yield patterns of results that are practically indistinguishable from flipping a coin to determine the direction of treatment effects. We use this idea of random conclusions to establish a baseline for interpreting effect-size estimates, in turn producing more stringent thresholds for hypothesi…
The Strengths and Weaknesses of Crowds to Address Global Problems
Global climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the spread of misinformation on social media are just a handful of highly consequential problems affecting society. We argue that the rough contours of many societal problems can be framed within a “wisdom of crowds” perspective. Such a framing allows researchers to recast complex problems within a simple conceptual framework and leverage known results on crowd wisdom. To this end, we present a si…
Computer Science (9 works) · Mathematics (7 works) · Psychology (6 works) · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics (5 works) · Statistics (5 works) · Artificial Intelligence (4 works) · Econometrics (4 works) · Economic and Environmental Valuation (4 works) · Machine learning (3 works) · Social Psychology (3 works)