John B Carlin
Biographic Data
| ID | 5553886 |
|---|---|
| NAME | John B Carlin |
| GIVEN NAMES | John B |
| FAMILY NAME | Carlin |
| SIGNATURE | CARLIN J B |
| AFFILIATIONS | The University of Melbourne |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-2694-9463 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 34 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 89 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 34 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1991 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2020 |
| H-INDEX | 7 |
Multilevel regression and poststratification for estimating population quantities from large health studies: A simulation study based on US population structure
Introduction Recruiting a representative sample of participants is becoming increasingly difficult in large-scale health surveys. Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) has been shown to be effective in estimating population descriptive quantities in non-representative samples. We performed a simulation study, previously applied to an Australian population, this time to a US population, to assess MRP performance. Methods Data were ext…
Statistical tests, P values, confidence intervals, and power: A guide to misinterpretations
Misinterpretation and abuse of statistical tests, confidence intervals, and statistical power have been decried for decades, yet remain rampant. A key problem is that there are no interpretations of these concepts that are at once simple, intuitive, correct, and foolproof. Instead, correct use and interpretation of these statistics requires an attention to detail which seems to tax the patience of working scientists. This high cognitive demand ha…
The Australian longitudinal study on male health sampling design and survey weighting: Implications for analysis and interpretation of clustered data
The extent to which the Ten to Men sampling design is accounted for in any analysis of the baseline data will depend on the research question. When the goals of the analysis are to estimate the prevalence of a disease or risk factor in the population or the magnitude of a population-level exposure-outcome association, our advice is to adopt an analysis that respects the sampling design
The Australian longitudinal study on male health-methods
Ten to Men is a unique resource for investigating male health and wellbeing. Wave 1 data are available for approved research projects
Multiple imputation for missing data in a longitudinal cohort study: A tutorial based on a detailed case study involving imputation of missing outcome data
Multiple imputation (MI), a two-stage process whereby missing data are imputed multiple times and the resulting estimates of the parameter(s) of interest are combined across the completed datasets, is becoming increasingly popular for handling missing data. However, MI can result in biased inference if not carried out appropriately or if the underlying assumptions are not justifiable. Despite this, there remains a scarcity of guidelines for carry…
Does the social context of early alcohol use affect risky drinking in adolescents? Prospective cohort study
Our results suggest that consumption with family does not protect against risky drinking. Furthermore, parents who wish to minimise high risk drinking by their adolescent children might also limit their children's opportunities to consume alcohol in unsupervised settings
Beyond Power Calculations: Assessing Type S (Sign) and Type M (Magnitude) Errors
Statistical power analysis provides the conventional approach to assess error rates when designing a research study. However, power analysis is flawed in that a narrow emphasis on statistical significance is placed as the primary focus of study design. In noisy, small-sample settings, statistically significant results can often be misleading. To help researchers address this problem in the context of their own studies, we recommend design calcula…
The prognosis of common mental disorders in adolescents: A 14-year prospective cohort study
The natural history of self-harm from adolescence to young adulthood: A population-based cohort study
Cannabis and progression to other substance use in young adults: Findings from a 13-year prospective population-based study
BACKGROUND: Adolescent cannabis use predicts the onset of later illicit drug use. In contrast, little is known about whether cannabis in young adulthood also predicts subsequent progression or cessation of licit or illicit drug use. METHODS: 13-year longitudinal cohort study with recruitment in secondary school students in Victoria, Australia. There were six waves of adolescent data collection (mean age 14.9-17.4 years) followed by three in young…
Multiple Imputation for Missing Data: Fully Conditional Specification Versus Multivariate Normal Imputation
Statistical analysis in epidemiologic studies is often hindered by missing data, and multiple imputation is increasingly being used to handle this problem. In a simulation study, the authors compared 2 methods for imputation that are widely available in standard software: fully conditional specification (FCS) or "chained equations" and multivariate normal imputation (MVNI). The authors created data sets of 1,000 observations to simulate a cohort …
Bias and efficiency of multiple imputation compared with complete‐case analysis for missing covariate values
When missing data occur in one or more covariates in a regression model, multiple imputation (MI) is widely advocated as an improvement over complete‐case analysis (CC). We use theoretical arguments and simulation studies to compare these methods with MI implemented under a missing at random assumption. When data are missing completely at random, both methods have negligible bias, and MI is more efficient than CC across a wide range of scenarios.…
Multiple imputation for missing data in epidemiological and clinical research: Potential and pitfalls
Most studies have some missing data. Jonathan Sterne and colleagues describe the appropriate use and reporting of the multiple imputation approach to dealing with them
Multiple Imputation of Missing Values: New Features for Mim
We present an update of mim, a program for managing multiply imputed datasets and performing inference (estimating parameters) using Rubin's rules for combining estimates from imputed datasets. The new features of particular importance are an option for estimating the Monte Carlo error (due to the sampling variability of the imputation process) in parameter estimates and in related quantities, and a general routine for combining any scalar estima…
A New Framework for Managing and Analyzing Multiply Imputed Data in Stata
A new set of tools is described for performing analyses of an ensemble of datasets that includes multiple copies of the original data with imputations of missing values, as required for the method of multiple imputation. The tools replace those originally developed by the authors. They are based on a simple data management paradigm in which the imputed datasets are all stored along with the original data in a single dataset with a vertically stac…
Family-Based Short Breaks (Respite) for Disabled Children: Results from the Fourth National Survey
A survey of family-based short breaks for disabled children in the UK was undertaken in order to investigate the state of current services. The research builds on the work of previous surveys and takes the perspective of the service co-ordinators. The findings show that family-based short breaks are rapidly changing and diversifying. The number of schemes with contract carers has gone up and the number of schemes with additional sitting and befri…
Social and School Connectedness in Early Secondary School as Predictors of Late Teenage Substance Use, Mental Health, and Academic Outcomes
Trends and determinants of excess winter mortality in New Zealand: 1980 To 2000
EWM in NZ is substantial and at the upper end of the range observed internationally. Interventions to reduce EWM are important, but the surprising lack of variation in EWM by ethnicity, region and deprivation, provides little guidance for how such mortality can be reduced
Evaluation of a decision aid for prenatal testing of fetal abnormalities: A cluster randomised trial [ISRCTN22532458]
The findings from this trial will make a significant contribution to improving women's experience of prenatal testing and will have application to a variety of maternity care settings. The evaluation of a tailored decision aid will also have implications for pregnancy care providers by identifying whether or not such a resource will support their role in providing prenatal testing information
Promoting Social Inclusion in Schools: A Group-Randomized Trial of Effects on Student Health Risk Behavior and Well-Being
Objectives. We sought to test the efficacy of an intervention that was designed to promote social inclusion and commitment to education, in reducing among students health risk behaviors and improving emotional well-being. Methods. The design was a cluster-randomized trial in 25 secondary schools in Victoria, Australia. The subjects were 8th-grade students (aged 13 to 14 y) in 1997 (n=2545) and subsequent 8th-grade students in 1999 (n=2586) and 20…
Stability of body mass index in Australian children: A prospective cohort study across the middle childhood years
Objective: To investigate the prevalence and incidence of overweight and obesity, the frequency of overweight resolution and the influence of parental adiposity during middle childhood. Design: As part of a prospective cohort study, height and weight were measured in 1997 and 2000/2001. Children were classified as non-overweight, overweight or obese based on standard international definitions. Body mass index (BMI) was transformed into age- and g…
The Gatehouse Project: Can a multilevel school intervention affect emotional wellbeing and health risk behaviours
Study objective: The aim of this study was to determine the effect of a multilevel school based intervention on adolescents’ emotional wellbeing and health risk behaviours. Design: School based cluster randomised controlled trial. Students were surveyed using laptop computers, twice in the first year of intervention and annually thereafter for a further two years. Setting: Secondary schools. Participants: 2678 year 8 students (74%) participated i…
Bayesian Data Analysis
Cannabis use and mental health in young people: Cohort study
Objective: To determine whether cannabis use in adolescence predisposes to higher rates of depression and anxiety in young adulthood. Design: Seven wave cohort study over six years. Setting: 44 schools in the Australian state of Victoria. Participants: A statewide secondary school sample of 1601 students aged 14-15 followed for seven years. Main outcome measure: Interview measure of depression and anxiety (revised clinical interview schedule) at …
Does bullying cause emotional problems? A prospective study of young teenagers
Objectives: To establish the relation between recurrent peer victimisation and onset of self reported symptoms of anxiety or depression in the early teen years. Design: Cohort study over two years. Setting: Secondary schools in Victoria, Australia. Participants: 2680 students surveyed twice in year 8 (aged 13 years) and once in year 9. Main outcome measures: Self reported symptoms of anxiety or depression were assessed by using the computerised v…
Depression, anxiety, and smoking initiation: A prospective study over 3 years
OBJECTIVES: This report considers the extent to which depression and anxiety predict smoking onset in adolescence. METHODS: A 6-wave cohort design was used to study a sample of 14- and 15-year-old students (n = 2032) drawn from 44 secondary schools in the state of Victoria, Australia. The students were surveyed between 1992 and 1995 with a computerized questionnaire that included a 7-day retrospective diary for tobacco use and a structured psychi…
Is smoking associated with depression and anxiety in teenagers
OBJECTIVES. An association of smoking with depression and anxiety has been documented in adult smokers. This study examines this association in a representative group of teenage smokers. METHODS. A two-stage cluster sample of secondary school students in Victoria, Australia, were surveyed by using a computerized questionnaire, which included a 7-day retrospective diary for tobacco use and a structured psychiatric interview. RESULTS. Subjects repo…
Body mass index and duration of breast feeding: A survival analysis during the first six months of life
STUDY OBJECTIVE--The aim was to determine whether excess weight in lactating women is associated with earlier cessation of breastfeeding. DESIGN--The study was to prospective cohort analysis using a community sample of women. SETTING--Geelong the regional centre of the Barwon Region of Victoria, Australia, in 1984-85. SUBJECTS--All women who were breast feeding and whose first infant was born between 1 May 1984 and 30 April 1985 were asked to par…
The Gatehouse Project: Can a multilevel school intervention affect emotional wellbeing and health risk behaviours
Study objective: The aim of this study was to determine the effect of a multilevel school based intervention on adolescents’ emotional wellbeing and health risk behaviours. Design: School based cluster randomised controlled trial. Students were surveyed using laptop computers, twice in the first year of intervention and annually thereafter for a further two years. Setting: Secondary schools. Participants: 2678 year 8 students (74%) participated i…
Menarche and the onset of depression and anxiety in Victoria, Australia
STUDY OBJECTIVE: Psychiatric disorder often begins at adolescence. This study aimed to examine the associations between puberty and social circumstances and the adolescent rise in depression and anxiety. DESIGN: A two stage cluster sampling procedure was used to identify a representative group of Australian secondary school students in years 7 (age 12-13 years), 9 (14-15 years), and 11 (16-17 years) of 45 Victorian schools. The computerised clini…
Multiple imputation for missing data in a longitudinal cohort study: A tutorial based on a detailed case study involving imputation of missing outcome data
Multiple imputation (MI), a two-stage process whereby missing data are imputed multiple times and the resulting estimates of the parameter(s) of interest are combined across the completed datasets, is becoming increasingly popular for handling missing data. However, MI can result in biased inference if not carried out appropriately or if the underlying assumptions are not justifiable. Despite this, there remains a scarcity of guidelines for carry…
Promoting Social Inclusion in Schools: A Group-Randomized Trial of Effects on Student Health Risk Behavior and Well-Being
Objectives. We sought to test the efficacy of an intervention that was designed to promote social inclusion and commitment to education, in reducing among students health risk behaviors and improving emotional well-being. Methods. The design was a cluster-randomized trial in 25 secondary schools in Victoria, Australia. The subjects were 8th-grade students (aged 13 to 14 y) in 1997 (n=2545) and subsequent 8th-grade students in 1999 (n=2586) and 20…
Cannabis and progression to other substance use in young adults: Findings from a 13-year prospective population-based study
BACKGROUND: Adolescent cannabis use predicts the onset of later illicit drug use. In contrast, little is known about whether cannabis in young adulthood also predicts subsequent progression or cessation of licit or illicit drug use. METHODS: 13-year longitudinal cohort study with recruitment in secondary school students in Victoria, Australia. There were six waves of adolescent data collection (mean age 14.9-17.4 years) followed by three in young…
Family-Based Short Breaks (Respite) for Disabled Children: Results from the Fourth National Survey
A survey of family-based short breaks for disabled children in the UK was undertaken in order to investigate the state of current services. The research builds on the work of previous surveys and takes the perspective of the service co-ordinators. The findings show that family-based short breaks are rapidly changing and diversifying. The number of schemes with contract carers has gone up and the number of schemes with additional sitting and befri…
Summarizing multiple-choice tests using three informative statistics
An observed score distribution for a multiple-choice test can often be cogently summarized using 3 statistics that are easily calculated functions of the first 3 moments of the distribution. These statistics can be interpreted as providing a mean ability in terms of probability of obtaining a correct response, a guessing threshold, and a reliability relative to binomial variability
Summarizing multiple-choice tests using three informative statistics
Body mass index and duration of breast feeding: A survival analysis during the first six months of life
STUDY OBJECTIVE--The aim was to determine whether excess weight in lactating women is associated with earlier cessation of breastfeeding. DESIGN--The study was to prospective cohort analysis using a community sample of women. SETTING--Geelong the regional centre of the Barwon Region of Victoria, Australia, in 1984-85. SUBJECTS--All women who were breast feeding and whose first infant was born between 1 May 1984 and 30 April 1985 were asked to par…
Bias, prevalence and kappa
A method for estimating baseline health care costs
STUDY OBJECTIVES--Studies estimating the cost of specific illnesses do not generally take into account the fact that health care costs would have been incurred in the absence of the disease of interest. The goal of this study was to develop a method of estimating age specific baseline health care costs. These costs were calculated for Australian men, and their magnitude was compared with the costs of caring for men with HIV infection. DESIGN--Inf…
Menarche and the onset of depression and anxiety in Victoria, Australia
STUDY OBJECTIVE: Psychiatric disorder often begins at adolescence. This study aimed to examine the associations between puberty and social circumstances and the adolescent rise in depression and anxiety. DESIGN: A two stage cluster sampling procedure was used to identify a representative group of Australian secondary school students in years 7 (age 12-13 years), 9 (14-15 years), and 11 (16-17 years) of 45 Victorian schools. The computerised clini…
Is smoking associated with depression and anxiety in teenagers
OBJECTIVES. An association of smoking with depression and anxiety has been documented in adult smokers. This study examines this association in a representative group of teenage smokers. METHODS. A two-stage cluster sample of secondary school students in Victoria, Australia, were surveyed by using a computerized questionnaire, which included a 7-day retrospective diary for tobacco use and a structured psychiatric interview. RESULTS. Subjects repo…
Depression, anxiety, and smoking initiation: A prospective study over 3 years
OBJECTIVES: This report considers the extent to which depression and anxiety predict smoking onset in adolescence. METHODS: A 6-wave cohort design was used to study a sample of 14- and 15-year-old students (n = 2032) drawn from 44 secondary schools in the state of Victoria, Australia. The students were surveyed between 1992 and 1995 with a computerized questionnaire that included a 7-day retrospective diary for tobacco use and a structured psychi…
Onset of adolescent eating disorders: Population based cohort study over 3 years
Objective: To study the predictors of new eating disorders in an adolescent cohort. Design: Cohort study over 3 years with six waves. Subjects: Students, initially aged 14-15 years, from 44 secondary schools in the state of Victoria, Australia. Outcome measures: Weight (kg), height (cm), dieting (adolescent dieting scale), psychiatric morbidity (revised clinical interview schedule), and eating disorder (branched eating disorders test). Eating dis…
Does bullying cause emotional problems? A prospective study of young teenagers
Objectives: To establish the relation between recurrent peer victimisation and onset of self reported symptoms of anxiety or depression in the early teen years. Design: Cohort study over two years. Setting: Secondary schools in Victoria, Australia. Participants: 2680 students surveyed twice in year 8 (aged 13 years) and once in year 9. Main outcome measures: Self reported symptoms of anxiety or depression were assessed by using the computerised v…
Cannabis use and mental health in young people: Cohort study
Objective: To determine whether cannabis use in adolescence predisposes to higher rates of depression and anxiety in young adulthood. Design: Seven wave cohort study over six years. Setting: 44 schools in the Australian state of Victoria. Participants: A statewide secondary school sample of 1601 students aged 14-15 followed for seven years. Main outcome measure: Interview measure of depression and anxiety (revised clinical interview schedule) at …
Bayesian Data Analysis
Stability of body mass index in Australian children: A prospective cohort study across the middle childhood years
Objective: To investigate the prevalence and incidence of overweight and obesity, the frequency of overweight resolution and the influence of parental adiposity during middle childhood. Design: As part of a prospective cohort study, height and weight were measured in 1997 and 2000/2001. Children were classified as non-overweight, overweight or obese based on standard international definitions. Body mass index (BMI) was transformed into age- and g…
The Gatehouse Project: Can a multilevel school intervention affect emotional wellbeing and health risk behaviours
Study objective: The aim of this study was to determine the effect of a multilevel school based intervention on adolescents’ emotional wellbeing and health risk behaviours. Design: School based cluster randomised controlled trial. Students were surveyed using laptop computers, twice in the first year of intervention and annually thereafter for a further two years. Setting: Secondary schools. Participants: 2678 year 8 students (74%) participated i…
Evaluation of a decision aid for prenatal testing of fetal abnormalities: A cluster randomised trial [ISRCTN22532458]
The findings from this trial will make a significant contribution to improving women's experience of prenatal testing and will have application to a variety of maternity care settings. The evaluation of a tailored decision aid will also have implications for pregnancy care providers by identifying whether or not such a resource will support their role in providing prenatal testing information
Promoting Social Inclusion in Schools: A Group-Randomized Trial of Effects on Student Health Risk Behavior and Well-Being
Objectives. We sought to test the efficacy of an intervention that was designed to promote social inclusion and commitment to education, in reducing among students health risk behaviors and improving emotional well-being. Methods. The design was a cluster-randomized trial in 25 secondary schools in Victoria, Australia. The subjects were 8th-grade students (aged 13 to 14 y) in 1997 (n=2545) and subsequent 8th-grade students in 1999 (n=2586) and 20…
Social and School Connectedness in Early Secondary School as Predictors of Late Teenage Substance Use, Mental Health, and Academic Outcomes
Trends and determinants of excess winter mortality in New Zealand: 1980 To 2000
EWM in NZ is substantial and at the upper end of the range observed internationally. Interventions to reduce EWM are important, but the surprising lack of variation in EWM by ethnicity, region and deprivation, provides little guidance for how such mortality can be reduced
A New Framework for Managing and Analyzing Multiply Imputed Data in Stata
A new set of tools is described for performing analyses of an ensemble of datasets that includes multiple copies of the original data with imputations of missing values, as required for the method of multiple imputation. The tools replace those originally developed by the authors. They are based on a simple data management paradigm in which the imputed datasets are all stored along with the original data in a single dataset with a vertically stac…
Family-Based Short Breaks (Respite) for Disabled Children: Results from the Fourth National Survey
A survey of family-based short breaks for disabled children in the UK was undertaken in order to investigate the state of current services. The research builds on the work of previous surveys and takes the perspective of the service co-ordinators. The findings show that family-based short breaks are rapidly changing and diversifying. The number of schemes with contract carers has gone up and the number of schemes with additional sitting and befri…
Multiple imputation for missing data in epidemiological and clinical research: Potential and pitfalls
Most studies have some missing data. Jonathan Sterne and colleagues describe the appropriate use and reporting of the multiple imputation approach to dealing with them
Multiple Imputation of Missing Values: New Features for Mim
We present an update of mim, a program for managing multiply imputed datasets and performing inference (estimating parameters) using Rubin's rules for combining estimates from imputed datasets. The new features of particular importance are an option for estimating the Monte Carlo error (due to the sampling variability of the imputation process) in parameter estimates and in related quantities, and a general routine for combining any scalar estima…
Multiple Imputation for Missing Data: Fully Conditional Specification Versus Multivariate Normal Imputation
Statistical analysis in epidemiologic studies is often hindered by missing data, and multiple imputation is increasingly being used to handle this problem. In a simulation study, the authors compared 2 methods for imputation that are widely available in standard software: fully conditional specification (FCS) or "chained equations" and multivariate normal imputation (MVNI). The authors created data sets of 1,000 observations to simulate a cohort …
Bias and efficiency of multiple imputation compared with complete‐case analysis for missing covariate values
When missing data occur in one or more covariates in a regression model, multiple imputation (MI) is widely advocated as an improvement over complete‐case analysis (CC). We use theoretical arguments and simulation studies to compare these methods with MI implemented under a missing at random assumption. When data are missing completely at random, both methods have negligible bias, and MI is more efficient than CC across a wide range of scenarios.…
The natural history of self-harm from adolescence to young adulthood: A population-based cohort study
Medicine (23 works) · Computer Science (14 works) · Psychology (14 works) · Demography (12 works) · Psychiatry (12 works) · Mathematics (11 works) · Statistics (11 works) · Econometrics (10 works) · Cohort (9 works) · Environmental health (9 works)