Lucrezia Reichlin
Biographic Data
| ID | 5731638 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Lucrezia Reichlin |
| GIVEN NAMES | Lucrezia |
| FAMILY NAME | Reichlin |
| SIGNATURE | REICHLIN L |
| AFFILIATIONS | Université Libre de Bruxelles |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 12 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 24 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 12 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1989 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2022 |
| H-INDEX | 3 |
Chaire européenne (chaire annuelle 2018-2019)
Enseignement Cours – La Banque centrale européenne et la crise de l’euro Mes recherches actuelles se penchent sur l’évaluation critique des défis rencontrés par la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) pendant la période 2007-2015, au moment où sévissaient la pire récession et la pire crise financière de l’après-guerre, et où la BCE devait faire face à la première crise majeure de son histoire. La crise a constitué un test de robustesse du cadre génér…
A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation
We develop a medium-size semistructural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view, often expressed by central banks, that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a Phillips curve, and temporary fluctuations in energy prices. We find that a stable long-term inflation trend and a well-identified steep Phillips curve are consistent with the data, but they imply potential output declin…
The ECB and the Interbank Market
We analyse the impact on the euro area economy of the ECB's non-standard monetary policy measures by studying the effect of the expansion of intermediation of interbank transactions across the central bank balance sheet. We exploit data drawn from the aggregated Monetary and Financial Institutions (MFI) balance sheet, which allow us to construct a measure of the 'policy shock' represented by the ECB's increasing role as a financial intermediary. …
A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models
Is maximum likelihood suitable for factor models in large cross-sections of time series? We answer this question from both an asymptotic and an empirical perspective. We show that estimates of the common factors based on maximum likelihood are consistent for the size of the cross-section (n) and the sample size (T), going to infinity along any path, and that maximum likelihood is viable for n large. The estimator is robust to misspecification of …
Large Bayesian vector auto regressions
This paper shows that vector auto regression (VAR) with Bayesian shrinkage is an appropriate tool for large dynamic models. We build on the results of De Mol and co‐workers (2008) and show that, when the degree of shrinkage is set in relation to the cross‐sectional dimension, the forecasting performance of small monetary VARs can be improved by adding additional macroeconomic variables and sectoral information. In addition, we show that large VAR…
Nowcasting
A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models
A Measure of Comovement for Economic Variables
This paper proposes a measure of dynamic comovement between (possibly many) time series and names it cohesion. The measure is defined in the frequency domain and is appropriate for processes that are costationary, possibly after suitable transformations. In the bivariate case, the measure reduces to dynamic correlation and is related, but not equal, to the well known quantities of coherence and coherency. Dynamic correlation on a frequency band e…
Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area
This paper proposes a new way to compute a coincident and a leading indicator of economic activity. Our methodology, based on Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin (2000), reconciles dynamic principal components analysis with dynamic factor analysis. it allows us to extract indicators from a large panel of economic variables (many variables Tot many countries). The procedure is used to estimate coincident and leading indicators fut the EURO area. Unl…
The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model
This paper proposes a factor model with infinite dynamics and nonorthogonal idiosyncratic components. The model, which we call the generalized dynamic-factor model, is novel to the literature and generalizes the static approximate factor model of Chamberlain and Rothschild (1983), as well as the exact factor model à la Sargent and Sims (1977). We provide identification conditions, propose an estimator of the common components, prove convergence a…
Trend-Cycle Decompositions and Measures of Persistence
FLWNO
Segmented Trends and Non-Stationary Time Series
Since the influential work of Charles R. Nelson and Charles Plosser (1982), many empirical studies have concluded that macroeconomic time series are difference stationary. This paper proposes the segmented trend model as an alternative in which the series is the sum of a nonstationary trend and a stationary cycle, and where the trend shows infrequent shifts. The paper proposes tests between the difference stationary, and segmented trends models a…
Segmented Trends and Non-Stationary Time Series
Since the influential work of Charles R. Nelson and Charles Plosser (1982), many empirical studies have concluded that macroeconomic time series are difference stationary. This paper proposes the segmented trend model as an alternative in which the series is the sum of a nonstationary trend and a stationary cycle, and where the trend shows infrequent shifts. The paper proposes tests between the difference stationary, and segmented trends models a…
The ECB and the Interbank Market
We analyse the impact on the euro area economy of the ECB's non-standard monetary policy measures by studying the effect of the expansion of intermediation of interbank transactions across the central bank balance sheet. We exploit data drawn from the aggregated Monetary and Financial Institutions (MFI) balance sheet, which allow us to construct a measure of the 'policy shock' represented by the ECB's increasing role as a financial intermediary. …
Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area
This paper proposes a new way to compute a coincident and a leading indicator of economic activity. Our methodology, based on Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin (2000), reconciles dynamic principal components analysis with dynamic factor analysis. it allows us to extract indicators from a large panel of economic variables (many variables Tot many countries). The procedure is used to estimate coincident and leading indicators fut the EURO area. Unl…
Trend-Cycle Decompositions and Measures of Persistence
FLWNO
Segmented Trends and Non-Stationary Time Series
Since the influential work of Charles R. Nelson and Charles Plosser (1982), many empirical studies have concluded that macroeconomic time series are difference stationary. This paper proposes the segmented trend model as an alternative in which the series is the sum of a nonstationary trend and a stationary cycle, and where the trend shows infrequent shifts. The paper proposes tests between the difference stationary, and segmented trends models a…
Trend-Cycle Decompositions and Measures of Persistence
FLWNO
The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model
This paper proposes a factor model with infinite dynamics and nonorthogonal idiosyncratic components. The model, which we call the generalized dynamic-factor model, is novel to the literature and generalizes the static approximate factor model of Chamberlain and Rothschild (1983), as well as the exact factor model à la Sargent and Sims (1977). We provide identification conditions, propose an estimator of the common components, prove convergence a…
A Measure of Comovement for Economic Variables
This paper proposes a measure of dynamic comovement between (possibly many) time series and names it cohesion. The measure is defined in the frequency domain and is appropriate for processes that are costationary, possibly after suitable transformations. In the bivariate case, the measure reduces to dynamic correlation and is related, but not equal, to the well known quantities of coherence and coherency. Dynamic correlation on a frequency band e…
Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area
This paper proposes a new way to compute a coincident and a leading indicator of economic activity. Our methodology, based on Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin (2000), reconciles dynamic principal components analysis with dynamic factor analysis. it allows us to extract indicators from a large panel of economic variables (many variables Tot many countries). The procedure is used to estimate coincident and leading indicators fut the EURO area. Unl…
A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models
Nowcasting
Large Bayesian vector auto regressions
This paper shows that vector auto regression (VAR) with Bayesian shrinkage is an appropriate tool for large dynamic models. We build on the results of De Mol and co‐workers (2008) and show that, when the degree of shrinkage is set in relation to the cross‐sectional dimension, the forecasting performance of small monetary VARs can be improved by adding additional macroeconomic variables and sectoral information. In addition, we show that large VAR…
A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models
Is maximum likelihood suitable for factor models in large cross-sections of time series? We answer this question from both an asymptotic and an empirical perspective. We show that estimates of the common factors based on maximum likelihood are consistent for the size of the cross-section (n) and the sample size (T), going to infinity along any path, and that maximum likelihood is viable for n large. The estimator is robust to misspecification of …
The ECB and the Interbank Market
We analyse the impact on the euro area economy of the ECB's non-standard monetary policy measures by studying the effect of the expansion of intermediation of interbank transactions across the central bank balance sheet. We exploit data drawn from the aggregated Monetary and Financial Institutions (MFI) balance sheet, which allow us to construct a measure of the 'policy shock' represented by the ECB's increasing role as a financial intermediary. …
Chaire européenne (chaire annuelle 2018-2019)
Enseignement Cours – La Banque centrale européenne et la crise de l’euro Mes recherches actuelles se penchent sur l’évaluation critique des défis rencontrés par la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) pendant la période 2007-2015, au moment où sévissaient la pire récession et la pire crise financière de l’après-guerre, et où la BCE devait faire face à la première crise majeure de son histoire. La crise a constitué un test de robustesse du cadre génér…
A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation
We develop a medium-size semistructural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view, often expressed by central banks, that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a Phillips curve, and temporary fluctuations in energy prices. We find that a stable long-term inflation trend and a well-identified steep Phillips curve are consistent with the data, but they imply potential output declin…
Econometrics (8 works) · Economics (8 works) · Computer Science (6 works) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (6 works) · Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis (5 works) · Mathematics (5 works) · Statistics (5 works) · Economic theories and models (4 works) · Applied Mathematics (3 works) · Dynamic factor (3 works)