Nathan S Balke

Biographic Data

ID5733367
NAMENathan S Balke
GIVEN NAMESNathan S
FAMILY NAMEBalke
SIGNATUREBALKE N S
AFFILIATIONSSouthern Methodist University
ORCID0000-0001-8597-4258
VERIFIEDYes
TOTAL WORKS6
TOTAL CITATIONS32
WORKS AS AUTHOR6
WORKS AS EDITOR0
FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR1989
LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR2024
H-INDEX1

  • The Shale Revolution and the Dynamics of the Oil Market

    Open AccessNathan S Balke, Xin Jin et al.ARTICLEThe Economic Journal2024Cited by: 1References: 40

    We build and estimate a dynamic, structural model of the world oil market to quantify the impact of the shale revolution. We model the shale revolution as a decrease in shale production costs and find that the resultant increase in shale production lowers oil prices by 24% in the short run and 48% once the shale oil transition is complete. Current oil price volatility is lowered by 8% to 23% depending on the horizon. We also find that OPEC core a…

  • Low-Frequency Movements in Stock Prices

    Nathan S Balke, Mark E WoharARTICLEThe Review of Economics and…2002

    Previous analyses have concluded that expectations of future excess stock returns rather than future real dividend growth or real interest rates are responsible for most of the volatility in stock prices. In this paper, we employ a state-space model to model the dynamics of the log price-dividend ratio along with long-term and short-term interest rates, real dividend growth, and inflation. The advantage of the state-space approach is that we can …

  • Credit and Economic Activity

    Nathan S BalkeARTICLEThe Review of Economics and…2000

    In this paper, we examine empirically whether credit plays a role as a nonlinear propagator of shocks. This propagation takes the form of a threshold vector autoregression in which a regime change occurs if credit conditions cross a critical threshold. Using nonlinear impulseresponse functions, we evaluate the dynamics implied by the threshold model. These suggest that shocks have a larger effect on output in the ''tight'' credit regime than is n…

  • Detecting Level Shifts in Time Series

    Nathan S BalkeARTICLEJournal of Business and Economic…1993

    This article demonstrates the difficulty that traditional outlier detection methods, such as that of Tsay, have in identifying level shifts in time series. Initializing the outlier/level-shift search with an estimated autoregressive moving average model lowers the power of the level-shift detection statistics. Furthermore, the rule employed by these methods for distinguishing between level shifts and innovation outliers does not work well in the …

  • Poverty and Change in the Macroeconomy

    Nathan S Balke, Daniel J SlottjeARTICLEThe Review of Economics and…1993

    This paper analyzes the impact of macroeconomic activity on the level of poverty in the U.S. economy. The authors us e a macroeconometric model of poverty in the United States where the rat e of poverty is presumed to depend upon changes in various indicators of macroeconomic performance and policy. The authors empirically model the relationship between poverty and the macroeconomy with a hybrid mode l that employs a reduced-form model to capture…

  • The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product

    Nathan S Balke, Robert J GordonARTICLEJournal of Political Economy1989Cited by: 31References: 2

    This paper develops new methodology for the estimation of prewar gross national product (GNP), taps previously unused data sources, an d develops new estimates for the periods 1869-1908 and 1869-1928. Primary among the new data sources are direct measures of output in the transportation, communications, and construction sectors, and estimates of the consumer price index. New measures of real GNP, nominal GNP, and the GNP deflator are developed. T…