Warren M Persons
Biographic Data
| ID | 5734881 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Warren M Persons |
| GIVEN NAMES | Warren M |
| FAMILY NAME | Persons |
| SIGNATURE | PERSONS W M |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 27 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 0 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 27 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1912 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1933 |
| H-INDEX | 0 |
A New Index of Industrial Production and Trade
trade around the rising line of trend determined from the annual indexes. Crop production, Curve II, likewise advanced during the interval, but at a slower pace than industrial production and trade. Industrial and agricultural production combined, Curve III, follows the year-toyear fluctuations as well as the trend of industrial production and trade more closely than those of agricultural production. This is a result of the greater weight given t…
The Production of Electricity as an Index of the Physical Volume of Business
which is free from the influence of prices. Bank debits, which afford the most general index of business activity, measure the dollar volume of transactions made through checks, and hence reflect the prices of goods, services (i.e., wages in general), and securities, as well as the volume of transactions; whereas most series expressed in physical units, however well they may reflect general movements, actually apply to some particular phase of ac…
The Effect of Correlation Between Weights and Relatives in the Construction of Index Numbers
An Index of General Business Conditions, 1875-1913
THE accompanying chart presents a bimonthly index of general business conditions for the period I875-I9I3 consisting of three curves representing, respectively, speculation, business, and money (Chart i of the insert).' For the interval I903-I3 the index is that published in this REVIEW in January I924.2 For the interval I875-I902 the index is here published for the first time. The purpose of the present article is to describe the method of const…
Money Rates, Bond Yields, and Security Prices
TN this REVIEW for January I926 we brought together some of the results of our studies of the relationship between money rates and speculation in the business cycle. There we stated our general conclusion that substantial quantitative changes in money rates, regardless of the length of time during which those changes take place, have been, in general, highly significant for security markets.' This general conclusion resulted from our statistical …
The Construction and Interpretation of the Harvard Index of Business Conditions
T HE methods followed in the original construction of our index of business conditions were fully set forth in this REVIEW for April I919; and such changes as have been found necessary since I919 have been explained, as occasion offered, in subsequent numbers. Our methods of interpreting the index have never been presented so exhaustively', because in part they have developed out of our experience in handling current data and have been presented …
Money Rates and Security Prices
Car Loadings As an Index of Trade Volumes
time trend, reflect the physical volumes of trade and manufacture of the United States. Such figures for total loadings for i919-August I926 are presented in Table 3, and graphically in the lower part of Chart i. The adjusted index of total loadings this year, like indexes of general business and manufacturing activity, though fluctuating at a high level, suffered a moderate recession in the spring and early summer months and not until July did i…
Statistics and Economic theory
The Problem of Business Forecasting
Cyclical Fluctuations of the Ratio of Bank Loans to Deposits, 1867-1924
BOTH the month-to-month fluctuations and the long-time trends of (a) loans and investments, and (b) net deposits of New York Clearing House banks are highly similar. For I903-I3, a period for which the fluctuations were carefully examined in a previous study, the correspondence between the seasonal and cyclical movements of the two series was found to be remarkably close and the slopes of the linear secular trends were shown to be identical.2 The…
An Index of Trade for the United States
THE Index of Trade, presented in the folded chart opposite this page, is designed to give a view of the combined fluctuations of trade, transportation, manufacturing activity, and industrial employment in the United States, month by month since I903. The Index is based upon representative statistics, but certain statistics are not available throughout the entire period and others, being expressed in terms of dollars, do not accurately reflect flu…
The Revised Index of General Business Conditions
W pi THEN, in i919, the post-war Index Chart IV Vof General Business Conditions was constructed, the following statements were made: In order to interpret current data it was found necessary to estimate the level of prices.... The trend thus found is, frankly, a forecast which will be revised as new data become available. 1 . . . the readjustments from the extraordinary war period continue, it is necessary to repeat the cautionthat the conclusion…
An Index of British Economic Conditions
An Index Chart Based on Prices and Money Rates
Fisher's Formula for Index Numbers
PROFESSOR IRVING FISHER, in a paper read at last annual meeting of American Statistical Association,' proposed a formula for computation of index numbers of prices and of quantities which, he maintained, was the best for all purposes. 2 The formula which he recommended for indices of prices and quantities as ideal is mean between two ratios of aggregates. The aggregates depend upon a combination of prices and quantities of commodities in a given …
Bank Loans and the Business Cycle
T HE curves of our Index Chart for I903-I4 were obtained by sorting twelve statistical series into three groups of four each, and then averaging the series of each group. The criterion for sorting the series was statistical; that is, when corrected for seasonal influence and normal growth the series of each group moved in the same general direction (upward or downward) at the same time. The three groups, however, did not undulate simultaneously b…
A Commodity Price Index of Business Cycles
T HE object of this study is to construct an index of wholesale commodity prices for a special purpose. That purpose is to measure changes in general business conditions during alternating periods of prosperity and depression. In other words, our problem is to select and combine seriesof wholesale prices of commodities in order to secure an index of business cycles. This is not the problem which, heretofore, makers of commodity price index number…
The Iron and Steel Industry During Business Cycles
T HE census of manufactures of the United States classifies manufacturing industries into fourteen groups.' Of these groups and steel and their leads all others, whether the groups be ranked according to capital investment, amount of wages paid, or value added to materials by the manufacturing process.2 Moreover, the industrial importance of the iron and steel group is not fully revealed by the figures for that group considered by themselves. Amo…
Business and Financial Conditions Following the Civil War in the United States
Warren M. Persons, Pierson M. Tuttle, Edwin Frickey, Business and Financial Conditions Following the Civil War in the United States, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 2, Supplement 2 (Jul., 1920), pp. 5-21
The Basis for Credit Expansion Under the Federal Reserve System
T HE chief defect of the old national banking system was its decentralization resulting in scattered bank reserves. Even though the national banks of the United States possessed enormous aggregate cash reserves yet, before the establishment of the federal reserve system, those reserves were ineffective. There was no method of mobilizing cash for use where and when it was needed. No responsible body was empowered to adopt or carry out discount or …
An Index of the Physical Volume of Production
A Non-Technical Explanation of the Index of General Business Conditions
A FULL explanation of the data and methods used A1 in constructing our index of general business conditions was given in THE REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STATISTICS for January and April i919. That explanation should be consulted by readers of the REViEw who want information concerning the technique or details of the construction of the index. The majority of readers, however, are interested in results rather than in methods or technical details. The expla…
IV. Application of the Method to the Data, (B) The Groups of Series
Outline of the Method
No prominent works on this page.
Laws of Wages
Statistics . Robert Griffin
IV. Application of the Method to the Data, (B) The Groups of Series
Outline of the Method
Business and Financial Conditions Following the Civil War in the United States
Warren M. Persons, Pierson M. Tuttle, Edwin Frickey, Business and Financial Conditions Following the Civil War in the United States, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 2, Supplement 2 (Jul., 1920), pp. 5-21
The Basis for Credit Expansion Under the Federal Reserve System
T HE chief defect of the old national banking system was its decentralization resulting in scattered bank reserves. Even though the national banks of the United States possessed enormous aggregate cash reserves yet, before the establishment of the federal reserve system, those reserves were ineffective. There was no method of mobilizing cash for use where and when it was needed. No responsible body was empowered to adopt or carry out discount or …
An Index of the Physical Volume of Production
A Non-Technical Explanation of the Index of General Business Conditions
A FULL explanation of the data and methods used A1 in constructing our index of general business conditions was given in THE REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STATISTICS for January and April i919. That explanation should be consulted by readers of the REViEw who want information concerning the technique or details of the construction of the index. The majority of readers, however, are interested in results rather than in methods or technical details. The expla…
Fisher's Formula for Index Numbers
PROFESSOR IRVING FISHER, in a paper read at last annual meeting of American Statistical Association,' proposed a formula for computation of index numbers of prices and of quantities which, he maintained, was the best for all purposes. 2 The formula which he recommended for indices of prices and quantities as ideal is mean between two ratios of aggregates. The aggregates depend upon a combination of prices and quantities of commodities in a given …
Bank Loans and the Business Cycle
T HE curves of our Index Chart for I903-I4 were obtained by sorting twelve statistical series into three groups of four each, and then averaging the series of each group. The criterion for sorting the series was statistical; that is, when corrected for seasonal influence and normal growth the series of each group moved in the same general direction (upward or downward) at the same time. The three groups, however, did not undulate simultaneously b…
A Commodity Price Index of Business Cycles
T HE object of this study is to construct an index of wholesale commodity prices for a special purpose. That purpose is to measure changes in general business conditions during alternating periods of prosperity and depression. In other words, our problem is to select and combine seriesof wholesale prices of commodities in order to secure an index of business cycles. This is not the problem which, heretofore, makers of commodity price index number…
The Iron and Steel Industry During Business Cycles
T HE census of manufactures of the United States classifies manufacturing industries into fourteen groups.' Of these groups and steel and their leads all others, whether the groups be ranked according to capital investment, amount of wages paid, or value added to materials by the manufacturing process.2 Moreover, the industrial importance of the iron and steel group is not fully revealed by the figures for that group considered by themselves. Amo…
An Index of British Economic Conditions
An Index Chart Based on Prices and Money Rates
An Index of Trade for the United States
THE Index of Trade, presented in the folded chart opposite this page, is designed to give a view of the combined fluctuations of trade, transportation, manufacturing activity, and industrial employment in the United States, month by month since I903. The Index is based upon representative statistics, but certain statistics are not available throughout the entire period and others, being expressed in terms of dollars, do not accurately reflect flu…
The Revised Index of General Business Conditions
W pi THEN, in i919, the post-war Index Chart IV Vof General Business Conditions was constructed, the following statements were made: In order to interpret current data it was found necessary to estimate the level of prices.... The trend thus found is, frankly, a forecast which will be revised as new data become available. 1 . . . the readjustments from the extraordinary war period continue, it is necessary to repeat the cautionthat the conclusion…
Cyclical Fluctuations of the Ratio of Bank Loans to Deposits, 1867-1924
BOTH the month-to-month fluctuations and the long-time trends of (a) loans and investments, and (b) net deposits of New York Clearing House banks are highly similar. For I903-I3, a period for which the fluctuations were carefully examined in a previous study, the correspondence between the seasonal and cyclical movements of the two series was found to be remarkably close and the slopes of the linear secular trends were shown to be identical.2 The…
Statistics and Economic theory
The Problem of Business Forecasting
Money Rates and Security Prices
Car Loadings As an Index of Trade Volumes
time trend, reflect the physical volumes of trade and manufacture of the United States. Such figures for total loadings for i919-August I926 are presented in Table 3, and graphically in the lower part of Chart i. The adjusted index of total loadings this year, like indexes of general business and manufacturing activity, though fluctuating at a high level, suffered a moderate recession in the spring and early summer months and not until July did i…
An Index of General Business Conditions, 1875-1913
THE accompanying chart presents a bimonthly index of general business conditions for the period I875-I9I3 consisting of three curves representing, respectively, speculation, business, and money (Chart i of the insert).' For the interval I903-I3 the index is that published in this REVIEW in January I924.2 For the interval I875-I902 the index is here published for the first time. The purpose of the present article is to describe the method of const…
Money Rates, Bond Yields, and Security Prices
TN this REVIEW for January I926 we brought together some of the results of our studies of the relationship between money rates and speculation in the business cycle. There we stated our general conclusion that substantial quantitative changes in money rates, regardless of the length of time during which those changes take place, have been, in general, highly significant for security markets.' This general conclusion resulted from our statistical …
The Construction and Interpretation of the Harvard Index of Business Conditions
T HE methods followed in the original construction of our index of business conditions were fully set forth in this REVIEW for April I919; and such changes as have been found necessary since I919 have been explained, as occasion offered, in subsequent numbers. Our methods of interpreting the index have never been presented so exhaustively', because in part they have developed out of our experience in handling current data and have been presented …
The Production of Electricity as an Index of the Physical Volume of Business
which is free from the influence of prices. Bank debits, which afford the most general index of business activity, measure the dollar volume of transactions made through checks, and hence reflect the prices of goods, services (i.e., wages in general), and securities, as well as the volume of transactions; whereas most series expressed in physical units, however well they may reflect general movements, actually apply to some particular phase of ac…
Economics (23 works) · Computer Science (19 works) · Index (typography) (14 works) · Econometrics (12 works) · Business (11 works) · Mathematics (9 works) · Statistics (8 works) · Monetary economics (6 works) · Finance (5 works) · Finance (5 works)