Paolo Surico
Biographic Data
| ID | 5736152 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Paolo Surico |
| GIVEN NAMES | Paolo |
| FAMILY NAME | Surico |
| SIGNATURE | SURICO P |
| AFFILIATIONS | London Business School and CEPR |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-2284-738X |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 5 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 3 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 5 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2004 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2015 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run
This paper presents a new empirical regularity between the volatility of productivity growth and long-run unemployment for a given level of long-run productivity growth. A theoretical framework based on asymmetric real wage rigidities is shown to have the potential to rationalize this finding. The model tends to fit U.S. long-run unemployment better than a specification based on long-run productivity growth only, especially during the Great Moder…
A Century of Inflation Forecasts
We investigate inflation predictability in the United States across the monetary regimes of the twentieth century. The forecasts based on money growth and output growth were significantly more accurate than the forecasts based on past inflation only during the regimes associated with neither a clear nominal anchor nor a credible commitment to fight inflation. These include the years from the outbreak of World War II in 1939 to the implementation …
Monetary Policy, Inflation Expectations and The Price Puzzle
This paper re-examines the VAR evidence on the price puzzle and proposes a new theoretical interpretation. Using actual data and two identification strategies based on zero restrictions and model-consistent sign restrictions, we find that the positive response of prices to a monetary policy shock is historically limited to the sub-samples that are typically associated with a weak interest rate response to inflation. Using pseudo data generated by…
Measuring the Time Inconsistency of US Monetary Policy
This paper offers an alternative explanation for the great inflation of the 1970s by measuring a novel source of monetary policy time inconsistency. In the presence of asymmetric preferences, the monetary authorities generate a systematic inflation bias through the private‐sector expectations of a larger policy response in recessions than in booms. The estimated Fed's implicit target for inflation has declined from the pre‐ to the post‐Volcker re…
Model Uncertainty, Optimal Monetary Policy and the Preferences of the Fed
Monetary policy in the US is characterized by a substantial degree of inertia. While in principle this may well be the outcome of an optimizing central bank behaviour, the ability of any derived policy rule to match the data relies on so large weights for interest rate smoothing into policy makers' preferences as to be theoretically flawed. In this paper we investigate whether such a puzzle can be interpreted as resulting from the concern of mone…
Monetary Policy, Inflation Expectations and The Price Puzzle
This paper re-examines the VAR evidence on the price puzzle and proposes a new theoretical interpretation. Using actual data and two identification strategies based on zero restrictions and model-consistent sign restrictions, we find that the positive response of prices to a monetary policy shock is historically limited to the sub-samples that are typically associated with a weak interest rate response to inflation. Using pseudo data generated by…
Measuring the Time Inconsistency of US Monetary Policy
This paper offers an alternative explanation for the great inflation of the 1970s by measuring a novel source of monetary policy time inconsistency. In the presence of asymmetric preferences, the monetary authorities generate a systematic inflation bias through the private‐sector expectations of a larger policy response in recessions than in booms. The estimated Fed's implicit target for inflation has declined from the pre‐ to the post‐Volcker re…
Model Uncertainty, Optimal Monetary Policy and the Preferences of the Fed
Monetary policy in the US is characterized by a substantial degree of inertia. While in principle this may well be the outcome of an optimizing central bank behaviour, the ability of any derived policy rule to match the data relies on so large weights for interest rate smoothing into policy makers' preferences as to be theoretically flawed. In this paper we investigate whether such a puzzle can be interpreted as resulting from the concern of mone…
Model Uncertainty, Optimal Monetary Policy and the Preferences of the Fed
Monetary policy in the US is characterized by a substantial degree of inertia. While in principle this may well be the outcome of an optimizing central bank behaviour, the ability of any derived policy rule to match the data relies on so large weights for interest rate smoothing into policy makers' preferences as to be theoretically flawed. In this paper we investigate whether such a puzzle can be interpreted as resulting from the concern of mone…
Measuring the Time Inconsistency of US Monetary Policy
This paper offers an alternative explanation for the great inflation of the 1970s by measuring a novel source of monetary policy time inconsistency. In the presence of asymmetric preferences, the monetary authorities generate a systematic inflation bias through the private‐sector expectations of a larger policy response in recessions than in booms. The estimated Fed's implicit target for inflation has declined from the pre‐ to the post‐Volcker re…
Monetary Policy, Inflation Expectations and The Price Puzzle
This paper re-examines the VAR evidence on the price puzzle and proposes a new theoretical interpretation. Using actual data and two identification strategies based on zero restrictions and model-consistent sign restrictions, we find that the positive response of prices to a monetary policy shock is historically limited to the sub-samples that are typically associated with a weak interest rate response to inflation. Using pseudo data generated by…
A Century of Inflation Forecasts
We investigate inflation predictability in the United States across the monetary regimes of the twentieth century. The forecasts based on money growth and output growth were significantly more accurate than the forecasts based on past inflation only during the regimes associated with neither a clear nominal anchor nor a credible commitment to fight inflation. These include the years from the outbreak of World War II in 1939 to the implementation …
Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run
This paper presents a new empirical regularity between the volatility of productivity growth and long-run unemployment for a given level of long-run productivity growth. A theoretical framework based on asymmetric real wage rigidities is shown to have the potential to rationalize this finding. The model tends to fit U.S. long-run unemployment better than a specification based on long-run productivity growth only, especially during the Great Moder…
Economics (5 works) · Macroeconomics (5 works) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (5 works) · Monetary economics (4 works) · Monetary policy (4 works) · Econometrics (3 works) · Economic Theory and Policy (3 works) · Keynesian economics (3 works) · Market Dynamics and Volatility (3 works) · Microeconomics (3 works)