Marianne Sensier
Biographic Data
| ID | 5739152 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Marianne Sensier |
| GIVEN NAMES | Marianne |
| FAMILY NAME | Sensier |
| SIGNATURE | SENSIER M |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Manchester |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-8966-2403 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 11 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 35 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 11 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2001 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2023 |
| H-INDEX | 3 |
The economic resilience scorecard: Regional policy responses for crises recovery
We assess the economic resilience of British subregions before, during and after the 2008 financial crisis. We apply our economic resilience scorecard to employment, output and productivity to assess the resilience dimensions of resistance, recovery and renewal. Our resulting scorecard ranks the South Eastern subregions and the Bristol/Bath region as having the highest economic resilience following the 2008 crisis, with Northumberland and Tyne an…
The imperial treasury: Appraisal methodology and regional economic performance in the UK
The disparity between the least and most productive regions in the UK is wide by the standards of many other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies. An important factor is the concentration of public investment around London. The appraisal process for infrastructure investment projects follows the methodology set out in HM Treasury’s The Green Book. It is argued that this methodology has reinforced the regional im…
Class, Politics and the Progressive Dilemma
This article considers contemporary class inequalities and how they might shape a progressive politics in the UK . Drawing on findings from the BBC Class Survey, it outlines changes in the class structure, class mobility and class identities. It is argued that the class structure is increasingly polarised and fragmented, with a wealthy elite, a vulnerable precariat and fragmented middle and working classes in between. Declining upward social mobi…
Measuring Regional Economic Resilience across Europe: Operationalizing a complex concept
This paper describes an approach developed to measure regional economic resilience across Europe which is novel in three key dimensions. Firstly, it seeks to date regional downturns as opposed to assuming that all regional economies are affected by economic shocks at the same point in time; secondly, it measures the amplitude and duration of economic downturns and subsequent recoveries; and thirdly, as well as measuring recovery, it measures the …
The Resilience of Employment in Wales: Through Recession and into Recovery
Sensier M. and Artis M. The resilience of employment in Wales: through recession and into recovery, Regional Studies. The dimensions of resilience of the Welsh employment cycle are assessed. The Welsh economy has undergone reorientation and renewal since the deep crisis of the 1980s and it was more resistant than the UK for the 1990s’ crisis and has recovered its pre-recession peak for the most recent crisis. To visualize the regional spread of t…
Structural Breaks in the International Dynamics of Inflation
This paper proposes an iterative procedure to discriminate between structural breaks in the coefficients and the disturbance covariance matrix of a system of equations, with recursive procedures then identifying individual coefficient shifts and separating volatility from correlation breaks. Structural breaks in short-term cross-country inflation relations are then examined for major G-7 economies and within the euro area. There is evidence that …
Uk Inflation: Persistence, Seasonality and Monetary Policy
In the light of the changes to UK monetary policy since the early 1980s, we study the existence and nature of changes in the properties of retail price inflation over this period. A feature of our analysis is the attention paid to the marked seasonal pattern of monthly UK inflation. After taking account of seasonality, both univariate and Phillips curve models provide strong evidence of changes in the level and persistence of inflation around the…
Testing for Volatility Changes in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series
We test for a change in the volatility of 214 U.S. macroeconomic time series over the period 1959–1999. We find that approximately 80% of these series have experienced a break in unconditional volatility during this period. Even though more than half of the series experienced a break in conditional mean, most of the reduction in volatility appears to be due to changes in conditional volatility. Our results are robust to controlling for business c…
Asymmetric output‐gap effects in Phillips Curve and mark‐up pricing models: Evidence for the US and the UK
A number of studies have found an asymmetric response of consumer price index inflation to the output gap in the US in simple Phillips curve models. We consider whether there are similar asymmetries in mark‐up pricing models, that is, whether the mark‐up over producers' costs also depends upon the sign of the (adjusted) output gap. The robustness of our findings to the price series is assessed, and also whether price‐output responses in the UK ar…
Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes
This paper uses logistic regression to construct a one‐quarter ahead prediction model for classical business cycle regimes in the UK. The binary dependent variable is obtained by applying simple mechanical rules to date turning points in quarterly real GDP data from 1963 to 1999. Using a range of real and financial leading indicators, several parsimonious one‐quarter‐ahead models are developed for the GDP regimes, with model selection based on th…
Modelling Business Cycle Movements in the UK Economy
This paper models the phases of the UK business cycle using GDP data with a time‐varying transition probabilities (TVTP) Markov‐switching regime model and exogenous leading indicator variables. Single indicators in linear models are compared with the TVTP framework, with logistic and exponential functions used in the latter. The Markov‐switching models capture the major recessions of the sample, but the use of leading indicators through the TVTP …
The imperial treasury: Appraisal methodology and regional economic performance in the UK
The disparity between the least and most productive regions in the UK is wide by the standards of many other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies. An important factor is the concentration of public investment around London. The appraisal process for infrastructure investment projects follows the methodology set out in HM Treasury’s The Green Book. It is argued that this methodology has reinforced the regional im…
The Resilience of Employment in Wales: Through Recession and into Recovery
Sensier M. and Artis M. The resilience of employment in Wales: through recession and into recovery, Regional Studies. The dimensions of resilience of the Welsh employment cycle are assessed. The Welsh economy has undergone reorientation and renewal since the deep crisis of the 1980s and it was more resistant than the UK for the 1990s’ crisis and has recovered its pre-recession peak for the most recent crisis. To visualize the regional spread of t…
Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes
This paper uses logistic regression to construct a one‐quarter ahead prediction model for classical business cycle regimes in the UK. The binary dependent variable is obtained by applying simple mechanical rules to date turning points in quarterly real GDP data from 1963 to 1999. Using a range of real and financial leading indicators, several parsimonious one‐quarter‐ahead models are developed for the GDP regimes, with model selection based on th…
The economic resilience scorecard: Regional policy responses for crises recovery
We assess the economic resilience of British subregions before, during and after the 2008 financial crisis. We apply our economic resilience scorecard to employment, output and productivity to assess the resilience dimensions of resistance, recovery and renewal. Our resulting scorecard ranks the South Eastern subregions and the Bristol/Bath region as having the highest economic resilience following the 2008 crisis, with Northumberland and Tyne an…
Class, Politics and the Progressive Dilemma
This article considers contemporary class inequalities and how they might shape a progressive politics in the UK . Drawing on findings from the BBC Class Survey, it outlines changes in the class structure, class mobility and class identities. It is argued that the class structure is increasingly polarised and fragmented, with a wealthy elite, a vulnerable precariat and fragmented middle and working classes in between. Declining upward social mobi…
Asymmetric output‐gap effects in Phillips Curve and mark‐up pricing models: Evidence for the US and the UK
A number of studies have found an asymmetric response of consumer price index inflation to the output gap in the US in simple Phillips curve models. We consider whether there are similar asymmetries in mark‐up pricing models, that is, whether the mark‐up over producers' costs also depends upon the sign of the (adjusted) output gap. The robustness of our findings to the price series is assessed, and also whether price‐output responses in the UK ar…
Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes
This paper uses logistic regression to construct a one‐quarter ahead prediction model for classical business cycle regimes in the UK. The binary dependent variable is obtained by applying simple mechanical rules to date turning points in quarterly real GDP data from 1963 to 1999. Using a range of real and financial leading indicators, several parsimonious one‐quarter‐ahead models are developed for the GDP regimes, with model selection based on th…
Modelling Business Cycle Movements in the UK Economy
This paper models the phases of the UK business cycle using GDP data with a time‐varying transition probabilities (TVTP) Markov‐switching regime model and exogenous leading indicator variables. Single indicators in linear models are compared with the TVTP framework, with logistic and exponential functions used in the latter. The Markov‐switching models capture the major recessions of the sample, but the use of leading indicators through the TVTP …
Asymmetric output‐gap effects in Phillips Curve and mark‐up pricing models: Evidence for the US and the UK
A number of studies have found an asymmetric response of consumer price index inflation to the output gap in the US in simple Phillips curve models. We consider whether there are similar asymmetries in mark‐up pricing models, that is, whether the mark‐up over producers' costs also depends upon the sign of the (adjusted) output gap. The robustness of our findings to the price series is assessed, and also whether price‐output responses in the UK ar…
Testing for Volatility Changes in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series
We test for a change in the volatility of 214 U.S. macroeconomic time series over the period 1959–1999. We find that approximately 80% of these series have experienced a break in unconditional volatility during this period. Even though more than half of the series experienced a break in conditional mean, most of the reduction in volatility appears to be due to changes in conditional volatility. Our results are robust to controlling for business c…
Uk Inflation: Persistence, Seasonality and Monetary Policy
In the light of the changes to UK monetary policy since the early 1980s, we study the existence and nature of changes in the properties of retail price inflation over this period. A feature of our analysis is the attention paid to the marked seasonal pattern of monthly UK inflation. After taking account of seasonality, both univariate and Phillips curve models provide strong evidence of changes in the level and persistence of inflation around the…
Structural Breaks in the International Dynamics of Inflation
This paper proposes an iterative procedure to discriminate between structural breaks in the coefficients and the disturbance covariance matrix of a system of equations, with recursive procedures then identifying individual coefficient shifts and separating volatility from correlation breaks. Structural breaks in short-term cross-country inflation relations are then examined for major G-7 economies and within the euro area. There is evidence that …
The Resilience of Employment in Wales: Through Recession and into Recovery
Sensier M. and Artis M. The resilience of employment in Wales: through recession and into recovery, Regional Studies. The dimensions of resilience of the Welsh employment cycle are assessed. The Welsh economy has undergone reorientation and renewal since the deep crisis of the 1980s and it was more resistant than the UK for the 1990s’ crisis and has recovered its pre-recession peak for the most recent crisis. To visualize the regional spread of t…
Measuring Regional Economic Resilience across Europe: Operationalizing a complex concept
This paper describes an approach developed to measure regional economic resilience across Europe which is novel in three key dimensions. Firstly, it seeks to date regional downturns as opposed to assuming that all regional economies are affected by economic shocks at the same point in time; secondly, it measures the amplitude and duration of economic downturns and subsequent recoveries; and thirdly, as well as measuring recovery, it measures the …
Class, Politics and the Progressive Dilemma
This article considers contemporary class inequalities and how they might shape a progressive politics in the UK . Drawing on findings from the BBC Class Survey, it outlines changes in the class structure, class mobility and class identities. It is argued that the class structure is increasingly polarised and fragmented, with a wealthy elite, a vulnerable precariat and fragmented middle and working classes in between. Declining upward social mobi…
The imperial treasury: Appraisal methodology and regional economic performance in the UK
The disparity between the least and most productive regions in the UK is wide by the standards of many other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies. An important factor is the concentration of public investment around London. The appraisal process for infrastructure investment projects follows the methodology set out in HM Treasury’s The Green Book. It is argued that this methodology has reinforced the regional im…
The economic resilience scorecard: Regional policy responses for crises recovery
We assess the economic resilience of British subregions before, during and after the 2008 financial crisis. We apply our economic resilience scorecard to employment, output and productivity to assess the resilience dimensions of resistance, recovery and renewal. Our resulting scorecard ranks the South Eastern subregions and the Bristol/Bath region as having the highest economic resilience following the 2008 crisis, with Northumberland and Tyne an…
Economics (10 works) · Econometrics (6 works) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (6 works) · Macroeconomics (5 works) · Mathematics (5 works) · Computer Science (4 works) · Keynesian economics (4 works) · Business cycle (3 works) · Economic Theory and Policy (3 works) · Employment and Welfare Studies (3 works)