Peter McAdam
Biographic Data
| ID | 5843064 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Peter McAdam |
| GIVEN NAMES | Peter |
| FAMILY NAME | McAdam |
| SIGNATURE | MCADAM P |
| AFFILIATIONS | European Central Bank |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 9 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 2 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 9 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2003 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2023 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
Exploring Okun's law asymmetry
Using a novel methodology, we offer new evidence that a threshold relationship exists for Okun's law (the well‐known output–unemployment co‐movement). We use a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) model where threshold endogeneity is addressed using copula transformations of the threshold variable. We also suggest a test of the linearity hypothesis against the LSTR model. In line with Okun's insight (and that of the subsequent literature)…
Evaluating Local Language Models
Dealing With Endogeneity in Threshold Models Using Copulas
We suggest a new method dealing with the problem of endogeneity of the threshold variable in structural threshold regression models based on copula theory. This method enables us to relax the assumption that the threshold variable is normally distributed and to capture the dependence structure between the threshold regression error term and the threshold variable independently of the marginal distribution of the threshold variable. For Gaussian a…
Immanuel Kant and Endogenous Growth Theory
Despite the modern origins of endogenous growth theory, we argue that the ‘Idea for a Universal History with a Cosmopolitan Aim’ written by Immanuel Kant in 1784 provides an early and coherent example of such a theory. Kant's endogenous growth mechanism is driven by the inherent rivalry that exists between agents which increases effort and strengthens the accumulation of knowledge, which in turn is carried through generations. In an exercise in ‘…
Openness, Efficiency and Technology
Most trade and macroeconomic models imply positive impacts on the economy from greater openness. And a key factor linking openness and progress is the efficiency with which resources are used. Empirically, however, the efficiency impacts of trade have been ambiguous. Using a stochastic frontier analysis, we examine the impact of openness on technical (in)efficiency for a sample of OECD economies. Unlike the bulk of related studies, we work at the…
Factor Substitution and Factor-Augmenting Technical Progress in the United States
Using a normalized CES function with factor-augmenting technical progress, we estimate a supply-side system of the U.S. economy from 1953 to 1998. Avoiding potential estimation biases that may have occurred in earlier studies and putting a high emphasis on data consistency, we obtain robust results not only for the aggregate elasticity of substitution but also for the parameters of labor and capital augmenting technical change. We find that the e…
Optimal Monetary Policy Rules for the Euro Area
In this article, we analyse the conduct of optimal monetary policy for the new euro area. The aggregate euro area economy is modelled to have relatively sluggish adjustment properties and a private sector with mainly backward-looking expectations. In this economy, we assume that the central bank searches for its best-performing monetary policy rule, e.g. for the optimal weight to give to inflation stabilization compared to that of output and for …
Unemployment, Hysteresis and Transition
In this paper, we quantify the degree of persistence in the unemployment rates of transition countries using a variety of methods benchmarked against the EU. Initially, we work with the concept of linear ‘Hysteresis’ as described by the presence of unit roots in unemployment as in most empirical research on this area. Given that this is potentially a narrow definition, we also take into account the existence of structural breaks and nonlinear dyn…
Deficit Targeting Strategies
Using stochastic simulations, this article analyses the probability distribution of a country's deficit ratio under fixed exchange rates and a variety of monetary and fiscal policy rules. The purpose is to show how the probability of an ‘excessive deficit’, defined by Europe's Stability Pact as a deficit to GDP ratio above 3 per cent, varies with different deficit targets and policy rules. Using a macro model, we find that when subject to histori…
Openness, Efficiency and Technology
Most trade and macroeconomic models imply positive impacts on the economy from greater openness. And a key factor linking openness and progress is the efficiency with which resources are used. Empirically, however, the efficiency impacts of trade have been ambiguous. Using a stochastic frontier analysis, we examine the impact of openness on technical (in)efficiency for a sample of OECD economies. Unlike the bulk of related studies, we work at the…
Unemployment, Hysteresis and Transition
In this paper, we quantify the degree of persistence in the unemployment rates of transition countries using a variety of methods benchmarked against the EU. Initially, we work with the concept of linear ‘Hysteresis’ as described by the presence of unit roots in unemployment as in most empirical research on this area. Given that this is potentially a narrow definition, we also take into account the existence of structural breaks and nonlinear dyn…
Deficit Targeting Strategies
Using stochastic simulations, this article analyses the probability distribution of a country's deficit ratio under fixed exchange rates and a variety of monetary and fiscal policy rules. The purpose is to show how the probability of an ‘excessive deficit’, defined by Europe's Stability Pact as a deficit to GDP ratio above 3 per cent, varies with different deficit targets and policy rules. Using a macro model, we find that when subject to histori…
Unemployment, Hysteresis and Transition
In this paper, we quantify the degree of persistence in the unemployment rates of transition countries using a variety of methods benchmarked against the EU. Initially, we work with the concept of linear ‘Hysteresis’ as described by the presence of unit roots in unemployment as in most empirical research on this area. Given that this is potentially a narrow definition, we also take into account the existence of structural breaks and nonlinear dyn…
Optimal Monetary Policy Rules for the Euro Area
In this article, we analyse the conduct of optimal monetary policy for the new euro area. The aggregate euro area economy is modelled to have relatively sluggish adjustment properties and a private sector with mainly backward-looking expectations. In this economy, we assume that the central bank searches for its best-performing monetary policy rule, e.g. for the optimal weight to give to inflation stabilization compared to that of output and for …
Factor Substitution and Factor-Augmenting Technical Progress in the United States
Using a normalized CES function with factor-augmenting technical progress, we estimate a supply-side system of the U.S. economy from 1953 to 1998. Avoiding potential estimation biases that may have occurred in earlier studies and putting a high emphasis on data consistency, we obtain robust results not only for the aggregate elasticity of substitution but also for the parameters of labor and capital augmenting technical change. We find that the e…
Openness, Efficiency and Technology
Most trade and macroeconomic models imply positive impacts on the economy from greater openness. And a key factor linking openness and progress is the efficiency with which resources are used. Empirically, however, the efficiency impacts of trade have been ambiguous. Using a stochastic frontier analysis, we examine the impact of openness on technical (in)efficiency for a sample of OECD economies. Unlike the bulk of related studies, we work at the…
Immanuel Kant and Endogenous Growth Theory
Despite the modern origins of endogenous growth theory, we argue that the ‘Idea for a Universal History with a Cosmopolitan Aim’ written by Immanuel Kant in 1784 provides an early and coherent example of such a theory. Kant's endogenous growth mechanism is driven by the inherent rivalry that exists between agents which increases effort and strengthens the accumulation of knowledge, which in turn is carried through generations. In an exercise in ‘…
Dealing With Endogeneity in Threshold Models Using Copulas
We suggest a new method dealing with the problem of endogeneity of the threshold variable in structural threshold regression models based on copula theory. This method enables us to relax the assumption that the threshold variable is normally distributed and to capture the dependence structure between the threshold regression error term and the threshold variable independently of the marginal distribution of the threshold variable. For Gaussian a…
Exploring Okun's law asymmetry
Using a novel methodology, we offer new evidence that a threshold relationship exists for Okun's law (the well‐known output–unemployment co‐movement). We use a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) model where threshold endogeneity is addressed using copula transformations of the threshold variable. We also suggest a test of the linearity hypothesis against the LSTR model. In line with Okun's insight (and that of the subsequent literature)…
Evaluating Local Language Models
Economics (8 works) · Econometrics (5 works) · Macroeconomics (5 works) · Mathematics (5 works) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (5 works) · Economic Growth and Productivity (3 works) · Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth (3 works) · Global Financial Crisis and Policies (3 works) · Microeconomics (3 works) · Computer Science (2 works)