John G Fernald
Biographic Data
| ID | 5867868 |
|---|---|
| NAME | John G Fernald |
| GIVEN NAMES | John G |
| FAMILY NAME | Fernald |
| SIGNATURE | FERNALD J G |
| AFFILIATIONS | Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-3291-9324 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 6 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 35 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 6 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1997 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
The UK Productivity “Puzzle” in an International Comparative Perspective
The UK's slow productivity growth since 2007 has been referred to as a “puzzle,” as if it were a particularly UK‐specific problem. We highlight how the United States and northern Europe experienced very similar slowdowns. In all three regions, the slowdown in total factor productivity (TFP) growth accounts for the slowdown in labor productivity growth. We find no evidence in capital‐output ratios, investment rates, or internal rates of return tha…
The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity
Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?
Yes. We construct a measure of aggregate technology change, controlling for aggregation effects, varying utilization of capital and labor, nonconstant returns, and imperfect competition. On impact, when technology improves, input use and nonresidential investment fall sharply. Output changes little. With a lag of several years, inputs and investment return to normal and output rises strongly. The standard one-sector real-business-cycle model is n…
Puzzles in the Chinese Stock Market
Many companies on China's stock markets have traditionally had separate, restricted classes of shares for domestic residents and foreigners. These shares are identical other than for who can own them, but foreigners have generally paid only about one-quarter the price paid by domestic residents. We argue that the generally higher level (and volatility) of domestic share prices is consistent with the simplest asset pricing model, assuming plausibl…
Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link Between Public Capital and Productivity
Does the positive correlation between infrastructure and productivity reflect causation? If so, in which direction? I find that when growth in roads (the largest component of infrastructure) changes, productivity growth changes disproportionately in U.S. industries with more vehicles. That vehicle-intensive industries benefit more from road-building suggests that roads are productive. At the margin, however, road investments do not appear unusual…
Returns to Scale in U.S. Production
A typical two-digit industry in the United States appears to have approximately constant returns to scale. Three puzzles emerge, however. First, estimates rise at higher levels of aggregation. Second, apparent decreasing returns contradicts evidence of small economic profits. Third, estimates with value added differ substantially from those with gross output. A representative-firm paradigm cannot explain these puzzles but a simple story of aggreg…
Returns to Scale in U.S. Production
A typical two-digit industry in the United States appears to have approximately constant returns to scale. Three puzzles emerge, however. First, estimates rise at higher levels of aggregation. Second, apparent decreasing returns contradicts evidence of small economic profits. Third, estimates with value added differ substantially from those with gross output. A representative-firm paradigm cannot explain these puzzles but a simple story of aggreg…
Returns to Scale in U.S. Production
A typical two-digit industry in the United States appears to have approximately constant returns to scale. Three puzzles emerge, however. First, estimates rise at higher levels of aggregation. Second, apparent decreasing returns contradicts evidence of small economic profits. Third, estimates with value added differ substantially from those with gross output. A representative-firm paradigm cannot explain these puzzles but a simple story of aggreg…
Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link Between Public Capital and Productivity
Does the positive correlation between infrastructure and productivity reflect causation? If so, in which direction? I find that when growth in roads (the largest component of infrastructure) changes, productivity growth changes disproportionately in U.S. industries with more vehicles. That vehicle-intensive industries benefit more from road-building suggests that roads are productive. At the margin, however, road investments do not appear unusual…
Puzzles in the Chinese Stock Market
Many companies on China's stock markets have traditionally had separate, restricted classes of shares for domestic residents and foreigners. These shares are identical other than for who can own them, but foreigners have generally paid only about one-quarter the price paid by domestic residents. We argue that the generally higher level (and volatility) of domestic share prices is consistent with the simplest asset pricing model, assuming plausibl…
Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?
Yes. We construct a measure of aggregate technology change, controlling for aggregation effects, varying utilization of capital and labor, nonconstant returns, and imperfect competition. On impact, when technology improves, input use and nonresidential investment fall sharply. Output changes little. With a lag of several years, inputs and investment return to normal and output rises strongly. The standard one-sector real-business-cycle model is n…
The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity
The UK Productivity “Puzzle” in an International Comparative Perspective
The UK's slow productivity growth since 2007 has been referred to as a “puzzle,” as if it were a particularly UK‐specific problem. We highlight how the United States and northern Europe experienced very similar slowdowns. In all three regions, the slowdown in total factor productivity (TFP) growth accounts for the slowdown in labor productivity growth. We find no evidence in capital‐output ratios, investment rates, or internal rates of return tha…
Economics (6 works) · Economic Growth and Productivity (4 works) · Macroeconomics (4 works) · Econometrics (3 works) · Economic Theory and Policy (3 works) · Monetary economics (3 works) · Productivity (3 works) · Capital (architecture) (2 works) · Computer Science (2 works) · Economic growth (2 works)