Robert McNown
Biographic Data
| ID | 5912573 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Robert McNown |
| GIVEN NAMES | Robert |
| FAMILY NAME | McNown |
| SIGNATURE | MCNOWN R |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Colorado Boulder |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 17 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 37 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 17 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1973 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 4 |
Methodological guide to the augmented ARDL model
Macroeconomic effects of demographic change
Conventional views hold that low fertility will lead to low economic growth in the future. We examine the case of China, which has experienced decades‐long below‐replacement fertility, resulting in a rapidly ageing population accompanied by unintended diminished labour force growth. Compensating for the decline in the working‐age population, strong internal migration from rural to urban areas continues to sustain a large, growing and productive u…
Bootstrapping the autoregressive distributed lag test for cointegration
We propose a bootstrap autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) test. By applying the appropriate bootstrap method, some weaknesses underlying the Pesaran, Shin and Smith ARDL bounds test are addressed including size and power properties and the elimination of inconclusive inferences. In addition, inferences based solely on the significance of the F-test and single t-test from the ARDL bounds test are not sufficient to avoid degenerate cases. The bo…
Stagnating Life Expectancies and Future Prospects in an Age of Uncertainty
OBJECTIVE: This article provides a timely assessment of U.S. life expectancy given recent stalls in the growth of length of life, the continuing drop in international rankings of life expectancy for the U.S., and during a period of growing social and economic insecurity. METHODS: Time series analysis is used on over 70 years of data from the Human Mortality Database to forecast future life expectancy to the year 2055. RESULTS: The results show li…
The Returns to Education in Thailand
Time series analysis of fertility and female labor market behavior
Autoregressive Transformations in Cointegrated Regressions
Standard autocorrelation corrections applied to cointegrating regressions can lead to erroneous first-differencing. Such outcomes are shown to be possible under a range of environments, including cases with autocorrelation coefficients substantially less than 1. First-differencing of a cointegrating regression results in estimates that may bear little relation to the parameters in the original untransformed relation, resulting in misinterpretatio…
Changing causes of death and the sex differential in the USA
Forecasting Fertility
Purchasing Power Parity and the Canadian Float in the 1950s
In this paper, the authors present evidence that neither large differences in inflation nor long time periods are necessary for a finding favorable to purchasing power parity. Evidence from cointegrating regressions and tests of the real exchange rate indicate that purchasing power parity held as a long-run constraint between the United States and Canada for the period 1950:10 to 1961:5. The authors also find that government intervention can dist…
Forecasting Mortality
This article links parameterized model mortality schedules with time series methods to develop forecasts of U.S. mortality to the year 2000. The use of model mortality schedules permits a relatively concise representation of the history of mortality by age and sex from 1900 to 1985, and the use of modern time series methods to extend this history forward to the end of this century allows for a flexible modeling of trend and the accommodation of c…
Research Policy and Review 18. Losing Ground —Or Losing Credibility? An Examination of a Recent Policy Debate in the United States
This policy review is an examination of Charles Murray's Losing Ground, which is an investigation of the progress made by US blacks since 1950. The author purports to show that blacks have made little headway in terms of educational progress and income expectations, and are ‘losing ground’ within US society. A critical evaluation of Murray's research shows that he has focused on microeconomic issues at the expense of a consideration of wider stru…
On the uses of econometric models
The annual Harold D. Lasswell Prize
A Test for Autocorrelation in Models with Lagged Dependent Variables
The strength of the relationship between schooling and the logarithm of earnings at different levels of experience can be measured by coefficients of determination or by residual variances. For tracking unobserved post-school investments in cross-sections, the latter are clearly preferable; the greater reliance on the former in the literature is misplaced. If the fraction of earning capacity devoted to postschool investment is uncorrelated with e…
Economic Analysis of the All-Volunteer Force
The Story of the Family Assistance Plan
Essay| August 01 1973 The Story of the Family Assistance Plan Robert F. McNown Robert F. McNown Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Colorado Robert McNown’s current research interests involve a study of the causes of collective urban violence and problems of prediction with econometric models. He is also co-authoring a book on contemporary economic issues. Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar Curre…
Forecasting Mortality
This article links parameterized model mortality schedules with time series methods to develop forecasts of U.S. mortality to the year 2000. The use of model mortality schedules permits a relatively concise representation of the history of mortality by age and sex from 1900 to 1985, and the use of modern time series methods to extend this history forward to the end of this century allows for a flexible modeling of trend and the accommodation of c…
The Returns to Education in Thailand
Forecasting Fertility
On the uses of econometric models
Stagnating Life Expectancies and Future Prospects in an Age of Uncertainty
OBJECTIVE: This article provides a timely assessment of U.S. life expectancy given recent stalls in the growth of length of life, the continuing drop in international rankings of life expectancy for the U.S., and during a period of growing social and economic insecurity. METHODS: Time series analysis is used on over 70 years of data from the Human Mortality Database to forecast future life expectancy to the year 2055. RESULTS: The results show li…
Time series analysis of fertility and female labor market behavior
Changing causes of death and the sex differential in the USA
Economic Analysis of the All-Volunteer Force
The Story of the Family Assistance Plan
Essay| August 01 1973 The Story of the Family Assistance Plan Robert F. McNown Robert F. McNown Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Colorado Robert McNown’s current research interests involve a study of the causes of collective urban violence and problems of prediction with econometric models. He is also co-authoring a book on contemporary economic issues. Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar Curre…
A Test for Autocorrelation in Models with Lagged Dependent Variables
The strength of the relationship between schooling and the logarithm of earnings at different levels of experience can be measured by coefficients of determination or by residual variances. For tracking unobserved post-school investments in cross-sections, the latter are clearly preferable; the greater reliance on the former in the literature is misplaced. If the fraction of earning capacity devoted to postschool investment is uncorrelated with e…
Economic Analysis of the All-Volunteer Force
On the uses of econometric models
The annual Harold D. Lasswell Prize
Research Policy and Review 18. Losing Ground —Or Losing Credibility? An Examination of a Recent Policy Debate in the United States
This policy review is an examination of Charles Murray's Losing Ground, which is an investigation of the progress made by US blacks since 1950. The author purports to show that blacks have made little headway in terms of educational progress and income expectations, and are ‘losing ground’ within US society. A critical evaluation of Murray's research shows that he has focused on microeconomic issues at the expense of a consideration of wider stru…
Forecasting Mortality
This article links parameterized model mortality schedules with time series methods to develop forecasts of U.S. mortality to the year 2000. The use of model mortality schedules permits a relatively concise representation of the history of mortality by age and sex from 1900 to 1985, and the use of modern time series methods to extend this history forward to the end of this century allows for a flexible modeling of trend and the accommodation of c…
Purchasing Power Parity and the Canadian Float in the 1950s
In this paper, the authors present evidence that neither large differences in inflation nor long time periods are necessary for a finding favorable to purchasing power parity. Evidence from cointegrating regressions and tests of the real exchange rate indicate that purchasing power parity held as a long-run constraint between the United States and Canada for the period 1950:10 to 1961:5. The authors also find that government intervention can dist…
Changing causes of death and the sex differential in the USA
Forecasting Fertility
Autoregressive Transformations in Cointegrated Regressions
Standard autocorrelation corrections applied to cointegrating regressions can lead to erroneous first-differencing. Such outcomes are shown to be possible under a range of environments, including cases with autocorrelation coefficients substantially less than 1. First-differencing of a cointegrating regression results in estimates that may bear little relation to the parameters in the original untransformed relation, resulting in misinterpretatio…
Time series analysis of fertility and female labor market behavior
The Returns to Education in Thailand
Stagnating Life Expectancies and Future Prospects in an Age of Uncertainty
OBJECTIVE: This article provides a timely assessment of U.S. life expectancy given recent stalls in the growth of length of life, the continuing drop in international rankings of life expectancy for the U.S., and during a period of growing social and economic insecurity. METHODS: Time series analysis is used on over 70 years of data from the Human Mortality Database to forecast future life expectancy to the year 2055. RESULTS: The results show li…
Bootstrapping the autoregressive distributed lag test for cointegration
We propose a bootstrap autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) test. By applying the appropriate bootstrap method, some weaknesses underlying the Pesaran, Shin and Smith ARDL bounds test are addressed including size and power properties and the elimination of inconclusive inferences. In addition, inferences based solely on the significance of the F-test and single t-test from the ARDL bounds test are not sufficient to avoid degenerate cases. The bo…
Macroeconomic effects of demographic change
Conventional views hold that low fertility will lead to low economic growth in the future. We examine the case of China, which has experienced decades‐long below‐replacement fertility, resulting in a rapidly ageing population accompanied by unintended diminished labour force growth. Compensating for the decline in the working‐age population, strong internal migration from rural to urban areas continues to sustain a large, growing and productive u…
Methodological guide to the augmented ARDL model
Economics (11 works) · Econometrics (10 works) · Mathematics (7 works) · Computer Science (6 works) · Global Health Care Issues (6 works) · Statistics (6 works) · Demography (5 works) · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management (5 works) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (5 works) · Population (5 works)