Robert Lehmann
Biographic Data
| ID | 5918129 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Robert Lehmann |
| GIVEN NAMES | Robert |
| FAMILY NAME | Lehmann |
| SIGNATURE | LEHMANN R |
| AFFILIATIONS | Ifo Institute for Economic Research |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-6684-7536 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 11 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 3 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 11 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2017 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
From Shopping to Statistics
In this paper, we use high‐frequency transaction data to develop a weekly tracker for private consumption expenditures. Furthermore, we apply the transaction data in a nowcasting experiment and compare their performance with other, readily available indicators that are regularly linked to private consumption in Germany. The weekly tracker produces precise estimates and can thus be used in real time, especially in very turbulent times such as a pa…
Aus dem Häuschen. Simmel und der homo clausus
This essay approaches the problem of identity through the figure of the homo clausus. Beginning with debates on personal identity and its contemporary fragility, it turns to the individual as the site where identity is articulated in cultural and social forms. Simmel’s sociology grounds individuality in reciprocal interaction, whereas his philosophy of culture tends to elevate a form of heroic inwardness. Ultimately, viewed through the lens of pu…
Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States
To date, only annual information on economic activity is published for the 16 German states, thus, preventing the measurement of inter‐annual business cycle movements. We calculate quarterly regional real GDP estimates for the period between 1995 to 2021, thereby improving the database for Germany. We use the new data for an in‐depth business cycle analysis including the discussion of regional business cycle characteristics, the factors explainin…
A real-time regional accounts database for Germany with applications to GDP revisions and nowcasting
Is the German Mittelstand more resistant to crises
In a globalized world with high international factor mobility, crises often spread quickly over large parts of the world. Politicians carry a vital interest in keeping crises as small and short as possible. Against this background we study whether the type of company of owner-managed SMEs, in Germany well-known as Mittelstand firms, helps increasing an economy’s crisis resistance. We study this issue at the example of the Great Recession of the y…
Forecasting exports across Europe
In this study, we systematically evaluate the potential of a bunch of survey-based indicators from different economic branches to forecasting export growth across a multitude of European countries. Our pseudo-out-of-sample analyses reveal that the best performing indicators beat a well-specified benchmark model in terms of forecast accuracy. It turns out that four indicators are superior: the Export Climate, the Production Expectations of domesti…
Irgendwie fühle ich mich als Angehörige alleine gelassen“. Eine automatisierte Analyse eines Onlineforums für Angehörige von Inhaftierten
Der Entzug der Freiheit aufgrund einer Straftat bedeutet nicht nur für die in- haftierte Person, sondern auch für deren Angehörige eine tiefgreifende lebensweltliche Veränderung und Zäsur sowie ein erhöhtes Risiko für soziale, psychische oder materielle Problemlagen. Online-Selbsthilfeforen können in dieser Lebensphase eine Unterstützung darstellen. In diesem Beitrag wird ein Forum für Angehörige textanalytisch untersucht und folgende Frage verfo…
Ins Wahre enttäuschen
Electoral Externalities in Federations – Evidence from German Opinion Polls
The performance of parties at the national level is likely to influence election results at the local level, and vice versa. However, researchers have not yet quantified those electoral externalities. We apply vector autoregressions with predetermined variables to new high‐frequency opinion poll data for the German state of Berlin, measuring voting intentions of Berlin voters for the state parliament and for the national parliament. Our results s…
Explaining spatial patterns of foreign employment in Germany
This paper investigates the main determinants of the representation of foreign employees across German regions. Since migration determinants are not necessarily the same for workers of different nationalities, spatial patterns are explained not only for total foreign employment but also for the 35 most important migration countries to Germany. Based on a total census for all 402 German districts, the paper starts by showing the spatial distributi…
On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts
Explaining spatial patterns of foreign employment in Germany
This paper investigates the main determinants of the representation of foreign employees across German regions. Since migration determinants are not necessarily the same for workers of different nationalities, spatial patterns are explained not only for total foreign employment but also for the 35 most important migration countries to Germany. Based on a total census for all 402 German districts, the paper starts by showing the spatial distributi…
On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts
Explaining spatial patterns of foreign employment in Germany
This paper investigates the main determinants of the representation of foreign employees across German regions. Since migration determinants are not necessarily the same for workers of different nationalities, spatial patterns are explained not only for total foreign employment but also for the 35 most important migration countries to Germany. Based on a total census for all 402 German districts, the paper starts by showing the spatial distributi…
Ins Wahre enttäuschen
Electoral Externalities in Federations – Evidence from German Opinion Polls
The performance of parties at the national level is likely to influence election results at the local level, and vice versa. However, researchers have not yet quantified those electoral externalities. We apply vector autoregressions with predetermined variables to new high‐frequency opinion poll data for the German state of Berlin, measuring voting intentions of Berlin voters for the state parliament and for the national parliament. Our results s…
Forecasting exports across Europe
In this study, we systematically evaluate the potential of a bunch of survey-based indicators from different economic branches to forecasting export growth across a multitude of European countries. Our pseudo-out-of-sample analyses reveal that the best performing indicators beat a well-specified benchmark model in terms of forecast accuracy. It turns out that four indicators are superior: the Export Climate, the Production Expectations of domesti…
Irgendwie fühle ich mich als Angehörige alleine gelassen“. Eine automatisierte Analyse eines Onlineforums für Angehörige von Inhaftierten
Der Entzug der Freiheit aufgrund einer Straftat bedeutet nicht nur für die in- haftierte Person, sondern auch für deren Angehörige eine tiefgreifende lebensweltliche Veränderung und Zäsur sowie ein erhöhtes Risiko für soziale, psychische oder materielle Problemlagen. Online-Selbsthilfeforen können in dieser Lebensphase eine Unterstützung darstellen. In diesem Beitrag wird ein Forum für Angehörige textanalytisch untersucht und folgende Frage verfo…
Is the German Mittelstand more resistant to crises
In a globalized world with high international factor mobility, crises often spread quickly over large parts of the world. Politicians carry a vital interest in keeping crises as small and short as possible. Against this background we study whether the type of company of owner-managed SMEs, in Germany well-known as Mittelstand firms, helps increasing an economy’s crisis resistance. We study this issue at the example of the Great Recession of the y…
A real-time regional accounts database for Germany with applications to GDP revisions and nowcasting
Aus dem Häuschen. Simmel und der homo clausus
This essay approaches the problem of identity through the figure of the homo clausus. Beginning with debates on personal identity and its contemporary fragility, it turns to the individual as the site where identity is articulated in cultural and social forms. Simmel’s sociology grounds individuality in reciprocal interaction, whereas his philosophy of culture tends to elevate a form of heroic inwardness. Ultimately, viewed through the lens of pu…
Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States
To date, only annual information on economic activity is published for the 16 German states, thus, preventing the measurement of inter‐annual business cycle movements. We calculate quarterly regional real GDP estimates for the period between 1995 to 2021, thereby improving the database for Germany. We use the new data for an in‐depth business cycle analysis including the discussion of regional business cycle characteristics, the factors explainin…
From Shopping to Statistics
In this paper, we use high‐frequency transaction data to develop a weekly tracker for private consumption expenditures. Furthermore, we apply the transaction data in a nowcasting experiment and compare their performance with other, readily available indicators that are regularly linked to private consumption in Germany. The weekly tracker produces precise estimates and can thus be used in real time, especially in very turbulent times such as a pa…
Economics (7 works) · Geography (5 works) · German (4 works) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (4 works) · Econometrics (3 works) · Macroeconomics (3 works) · Political science (3 works) · Computer Science (2 works) · Economic Policies and Impacts (2 works) · Finance (2 works)