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Kerem Shuval

Biographic Data

ID6061747
NAMEKerem Shuval
GIVEN NAMESKerem
FAMILY NAMEShuval
SIGNATURESHUVAL K
AFFILIATIONSCooper Institute
ORCID0000-0001-9542-0910
VERIFIEDYes
TOTAL WORKS29
TOTAL CITATIONS12
AUTHOR COUNT29
EDITOR COUNT0
FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR1999
LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR2026
H-INDEX1
  • Are risky driving, health behaviors, and cardiometabolic risk interrelated? Findings from the cooper center longitudinal study

    Open Access•Kerem Shuval, Qing Li et al.•ARTICLE•Acta Psychologica•2026

    OBJECTIVE: While risky driving behaviors and unhealthy lifestyle behaviors both have deleterious consequences, they are rarely targeted jointly. The present study examines the associations between risky driving behaviors, health-related behaviors, and cardiometabolic risk factors among adults over time. METHODS: Longitudinal examination of 17,846 adults who attended a preventive medicine clinic (Dallas, TX) at least twice (1988-2024). The primary…

  • Association of psychological and behavioural economic factors with cigarette, water pipe, e-cigarette and heated tobacco use in Israel

    Kerem Shuval, Qing Li et al.•ARTICLE•Tobacco Control•2025

    Risk-seeking and impatient preferences appear to increase the likelihood of using various tobacco products and e-cigarettes, whereas higher general self-efficacy appears as protective. These behavioural factors should be considered when designing interventions alongside evidence-based policies

  • Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: A forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

    Open Access•Stein Emil Vollset, Hazim S Ababneh et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2024

    BACKGROUND: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternativ…

  • Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

    Open Access•Michael Brauer, Gregory A Roth et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2024

    BACKGROUND: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 ri…

  • Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: A comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

    Open Access•Natalia V Bhattacharjee, Austin E Schumacher et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2024

    BACKGROUND: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality,…

  • Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease…

    Open Access•Mohsen Naghavi, Kanyin Liane Ong et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2024

    BACKGROUND: Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mort…

  • Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic: A compr…

    Open Access•Austin E Schumacher, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2024

    BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 cou…

  • Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (Dalys), and healthy life expectancy (Hale) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territor…

    Open Access•Alize J Ferrari, Damian Francesco Santomauro et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2024

    BACKGROUND: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to im…

  • The Association between Psychological and Behavioral Economic Factors and the Rapid Assessment Disuse Index (Radi) during the Covid-19 Pandemic

    Open Access•Clare Meernik, Qing Li et al.•ARTICLE•International Journal of…•2024

    The deleterious health effects of prolonged sitting and physical inactivity are well-established, yet these behaviors are pervasive in modern culture. To inform interventions aimed at reducing sedentary behavior and increasing lifestyle activity, this study examined psychological and behavioral economic factors that may be associated with these behaviors. This cross-sectional study was conducted among 4072 adults in Israel. Participants completed…

  • Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

    Open Access•Kanyin Liane Ong, Lauryn K Stafford et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2023

    BACKGROUND: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes…

  • Think positive! Emotional response to assertiveness in positive and negative language promoting preventive health behaviors

    Ann Kronrod, Amir Grinstein et al.•ARTICLE•Psychology & Health•2022

    OBJECTIVE: There is insufficient evidence for the effectiveness of various tones of communication in modifying health behaviours. We examine the moderating role of assertiveness in the effect of positive/negative language on emotional responses (optimism, self-efficacy, and guilt), and resulting preventive health behaviours. DESIGN: Three experiments were employed. An online experiment tests the relationship between positive/negative language and…

  • Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: All-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study …

    Open Access•Katherine R Paulson, Katherine Paulson et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2021

    BACKGROUND: Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, a…

  • Cigarette Prices and Smoking Behavior in Israel: Findings from a National Study of Adults (2002–2017)

    Open Access•Kerem Shuval, Michal Stoklosa et al.•ARTICLE•International Journal of…•2021

    Tobacco taxation and price policies are considered the most effective for lowering demand for tobacco products. While this statement is based on research from numerous countries, scant evidence exists on this topic for Israel. Accordingly, we assessed the association between cigarette prices and smoking prevalence and intensity from a national sample of adults in Israel (2002-2017). Data on smoking behavior were derived from the Israeli Knowledge…

  • Physical Activity, Sleep, and Sedentary Behavior among Successful Long-Term Weight Loss Maintainers: Findings from a U.S. National Study

    Open Access•Gregory Knell, Qing Li et al.•ARTICLE•International Journal of…•2021

    Despite adults' desire to reduce body mass (weight) for numerous health benefits, few are able to successfully lose at least 5% of their starting weight. There is evidence on the independent associations of physical activity, sedentary behaviors, and sleep with weight loss; however, this study provided insight on the combined effects of these behaviors on long-term body weight loss success. Hence, the purpose of this cross-sectional study was to …

  • Emotional Eating in Adults: The Role of Sociodemographics, Lifestyle Behaviors, and Self-Regulation—Findings from a U.S. National Study

    Open Access•Roni Elran-Barak, Kerem Shuval et al.•ARTICLE•International Journal of…•2021

    Program planners might need to develop targeted interventions aimed at enhancing emotional regulation skills while addressing these less healthful behaviors (e.g., fast-food intake) with the goal of obesity and chronic disease prevention

  • Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (Hale), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: A comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global …

    Open Access•Haidong Wang, Kaja Abbas et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2020

    BACKGROUND: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected sub…

  • Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

    Open Access•Christopher J L Murray, Cristiana Abbafati et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2020

  • Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990–2019

    Open Access•Gregory A Roth, George A Mensah et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of the American College…•2020

    Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consisten…

  • Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study…

    Open Access•R Lozano, Nancy Fullman et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2020

    BACKGROUND: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system le…

  • Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

    Open Access•Christopher J L Murray, Aleksandr Y Aravkin et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2020

    BACKGROUND: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attribu…

  • Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

    Open Access•Theo Vos, Stephen S Lim et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2020

    BACKGROUND: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive…

  • Trends in Tobacco Use among Children and Adolescents in Israel, 1998–2015

    Open Access•Riki Tesler, Tanya Kolobov et al.•ARTICLE•International Journal of…•2020

    The results of this study can significantly enhance the development and implementation of smoking prevention and control programs among students in Israel

  • Health & Wealth: Is weight loss success related to monetary savings in U.S. adults of low-income? Findings from a National Study

    Open Access•Kerem Shuval, Bob M Fennis et al.•ARTICLE•BMC Public Health•2019

    Adults who in the past were overweight or obese and who presently exhibit high levels of LTWL, were markedly less successful when it came to their finances. This might stem from significant cognitive-affective resources exerted during the weight loss process coupled with a paucity of financial resources which impede financial decision making. This supposition, however, warrants future research

  • Ethnic Disparities in Physical Activity among Adolescents in Israel

    Riki Tesler, Tatyana Kolobov et al.•ARTICLE•American Journal of Health Behavior•2019

    Objectives: In this study, we examined physical activity (PA) levels among Jewish and Arab adolescents in Israel, as well as factors associated with PA. We used a socio-ecological framework to understand differences in levels of PA across ethnic groups and the factors associated with these differences. Methods: We used data based on the Israeli population as reported in the 2014-15 Health Behavior of School-Aged Children standardized survey, whic…

  • The intergenerational transmission of obesity: The role of time preferences and self-control

    Open Access•Michal Stoklosa, Kerem Shuval et al.•ARTICLE•Economics & Human Biology•2017

Next
  • The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, Food Insecurity, Dietary Quality, and Obesity Among US Adults

    Binh T Nguyen, Kerem Shuval et al.•ARTICLE•American Journal of Public Health•2015•Cited by: 12•References: 34

    Objectives. We examined whether Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participation changes associations between food insecurity, dietary quality, and weight among US adults. Methods. We analyzed adult dietary intake data (n = 8333) from the 2003 to 2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Bivariate and multivariable methods assessed associations of SNAP participation and 4 levels of food security with diet and weight. Me…

  • Peace-Making Through Recreation: The Positive Effects of Intergenerational Activities on the Attitudes of Israeli Arabs and Jews Toward Each Other

    Michael Leitner, Gilad Scher et al.•ARTICLE•World Leisure & Recreation•1999

  • Understanding barriers and facilitators of fruit and vegetable consumption among a diverse multi-ethnic population in the USA

    Open Access•Ming‐Chin Yeh, M-C Yeh et al.•ARTICLE•Health Promotion International•2008

    A diet high in fruits and vegetables (F&V) has been associated with a decreased risk of certain cancers, reduced morbidity and mortality from heart disease, and enhanced weight management. Yet to date, most of the US population does not consume the recommended amount of F&V despite numerous interventions and government guidelines to promote consumption. Research has found various impediments to F&V consumption, such as high costs, an obesogenic e…

  • Nguyen et al. Respond

    Binh T Nguyen, Binh Nguyen et al.•ARTICLE•American Journal of Public Health•2015

    AffiliationsBinh T. Nguyen and Kerem Shuval are with the Intramural Research Department, Economic and Health Policy Research Program, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia. Amy L. Yaroch is with the Gretchen Swanson Center for Nutrition, Omaha, Nebraska

  • The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, Food Insecurity, Dietary Quality, and Obesity Among US Adults

    Binh T Nguyen, Kerem Shuval et al.•ARTICLE•American Journal of Public Health•2015•Cited by: 12•References: 34

    Objectives. We examined whether Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participation changes associations between food insecurity, dietary quality, and weight among US adults. Methods. We analyzed adult dietary intake data (n = 8333) from the 2003 to 2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Bivariate and multivariable methods assessed associations of SNAP participation and 4 levels of food security with diet and weight. Me…

  • The intergenerational transmission of obesity: The role of time preferences and self-control

    Open Access•Michal Stoklosa, Kerem Shuval et al.•ARTICLE•Economics & Human Biology•2017

  • Health & Wealth: Is weight loss success related to monetary savings in U.S. adults of low-income? Findings from a National Study

    Open Access•Kerem Shuval, Bob M Fennis et al.•ARTICLE•BMC Public Health•2019

    Adults who in the past were overweight or obese and who presently exhibit high levels of LTWL, were markedly less successful when it came to their finances. This might stem from significant cognitive-affective resources exerted during the weight loss process coupled with a paucity of financial resources which impede financial decision making. This supposition, however, warrants future research

  • Ethnic Disparities in Physical Activity among Adolescents in Israel

    Riki Tesler, Tatyana Kolobov et al.•ARTICLE•American Journal of Health Behavior•2019

    Objectives: In this study, we examined physical activity (PA) levels among Jewish and Arab adolescents in Israel, as well as factors associated with PA. We used a socio-ecological framework to understand differences in levels of PA across ethnic groups and the factors associated with these differences. Methods: We used data based on the Israeli population as reported in the 2014-15 Health Behavior of School-Aged Children standardized survey, whic…

  • Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (Hale), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: A comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global …

    Open Access•Haidong Wang, Kaja Abbas et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2020

    BACKGROUND: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected sub…

  • Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

    Open Access•Christopher J L Murray, Cristiana Abbafati et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2020

  • Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990–2019

    Open Access•Gregory A Roth, George A Mensah et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of the American College…•2020

    Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consisten…

  • Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study…

    Open Access•R Lozano, Nancy Fullman et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2020

    BACKGROUND: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system le…

  • Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

    Open Access•Christopher J L Murray, Aleksandr Y Aravkin et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2020

    BACKGROUND: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attribu…

  • Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

    Open Access•Theo Vos, Stephen S Lim et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2020

    BACKGROUND: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive…

  • Trends in Tobacco Use among Children and Adolescents in Israel, 1998–2015

    Open Access•Riki Tesler, Tanya Kolobov et al.•ARTICLE•International Journal of…•2020

    The results of this study can significantly enhance the development and implementation of smoking prevention and control programs among students in Israel

  • Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: All-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study …

    Open Access•Katherine R Paulson, Katherine Paulson et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2021

    BACKGROUND: Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, a…

  • Cigarette Prices and Smoking Behavior in Israel: Findings from a National Study of Adults (2002–2017)

    Open Access•Kerem Shuval, Michal Stoklosa et al.•ARTICLE•International Journal of…•2021

    Tobacco taxation and price policies are considered the most effective for lowering demand for tobacco products. While this statement is based on research from numerous countries, scant evidence exists on this topic for Israel. Accordingly, we assessed the association between cigarette prices and smoking prevalence and intensity from a national sample of adults in Israel (2002-2017). Data on smoking behavior were derived from the Israeli Knowledge…

  • Physical Activity, Sleep, and Sedentary Behavior among Successful Long-Term Weight Loss Maintainers: Findings from a U.S. National Study

    Open Access•Gregory Knell, Qing Li et al.•ARTICLE•International Journal of…•2021

    Despite adults' desire to reduce body mass (weight) for numerous health benefits, few are able to successfully lose at least 5% of their starting weight. There is evidence on the independent associations of physical activity, sedentary behaviors, and sleep with weight loss; however, this study provided insight on the combined effects of these behaviors on long-term body weight loss success. Hence, the purpose of this cross-sectional study was to …

  • Emotional Eating in Adults: The Role of Sociodemographics, Lifestyle Behaviors, and Self-Regulation—Findings from a U.S. National Study

    Open Access•Roni Elran-Barak, Kerem Shuval et al.•ARTICLE•International Journal of…•2021

    Program planners might need to develop targeted interventions aimed at enhancing emotional regulation skills while addressing these less healthful behaviors (e.g., fast-food intake) with the goal of obesity and chronic disease prevention

  • Think positive! Emotional response to assertiveness in positive and negative language promoting preventive health behaviors

    Ann Kronrod, Amir Grinstein et al.•ARTICLE•Psychology & Health•2022

    OBJECTIVE: There is insufficient evidence for the effectiveness of various tones of communication in modifying health behaviours. We examine the moderating role of assertiveness in the effect of positive/negative language on emotional responses (optimism, self-efficacy, and guilt), and resulting preventive health behaviours. DESIGN: Three experiments were employed. An online experiment tests the relationship between positive/negative language and…

  • Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

    Open Access•Kanyin Liane Ong, Lauryn K Stafford et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2023

    BACKGROUND: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes…

  • Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: A forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

    Open Access•Stein Emil Vollset, Hazim S Ababneh et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2024

    BACKGROUND: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternativ…

  • Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

    Open Access•Michael Brauer, Gregory A Roth et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2024

    BACKGROUND: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 ri…

  • Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: A comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

    Open Access•Natalia V Bhattacharjee, Austin E Schumacher et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2024

    BACKGROUND: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality,…

  • Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease…

    Open Access•Mohsen Naghavi, Kanyin Liane Ong et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2024

    BACKGROUND: Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mort…

  • Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic: A compr…

    Open Access•Austin E Schumacher, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu et al.•ARTICLE•The Lancet•2024

    BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 cou…

Medicine (26 works) · Environmental health (21 works) · Population (14 works) · Demography (13 works) · Burden of disease (11 works) · Disease (11 works) · Public health (11 works) · Disease burden (10 works) · Psychology (8 works) · Gerontology (7 works)

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